Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Refugio County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48391
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-06-28. Plan: Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150), approved 2022-06-29.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-06-29: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 32 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hurricane ($3,487,419 a year), Inland Flooding ($1,472,592) and Cold Wave ($1,391,762).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 3.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-06-28
Plan:
Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)
Approved:
2022-06-29
Days to expiry:
271
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-06-29)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl)
Storm Events records since approval:
32 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 3
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Refugio CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Bayside townTownApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Refugio townTownApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Woodsboro townTownApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Austwell-Tivoli Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Refugio Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Woodsboro Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271
Refugio County Water Control and Improvement District #1Water/Sewer AuthorityApproved, expires 2027-06-28Refugio County (FEMA plan 108150)2022-06-292027-06-28271

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$3,082,675$268,971$135,773$3,487,4197
2Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$1,413,657$26,040$32,895$1,472,59252
3Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$5,773$97,386$1,288,603$1,391,7627Includes 3 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
4DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$797,888n/a$797,88894
5TornadoRelatively LowVery Low$91,605$591$245,401$337,59612
6Heat WaveRelatively LowVery Low$12$129$164,178$164,3184
7LightningRelatively LowVery Low$3,000n/a$58,219$61,2191
8WildfireVery LowVery Low$39,260$508$6,592$46,3592
9Strong WindVery LowVery Low$27,859$8,567$7,621$44,04725Includes 1 High Wind record (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10HailVery LowVery Low$21,347$5,050$5,510$31,90733
11Coastal FloodingVery LowVery Low$16,356n/a$3,514$19,8708
12Ice StormVery LowVery Low$616n/a$7,847$8,4634
13Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$515$65$3,491$4,0724
14EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$2,312n/a$775$3,087Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
15LandslideVery LowVery Low$5n/a$1$50No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9502 (Very Low, 10.2); tract 9504 (Very Low, 9.5)
Hurricanetract 9504 (Very High, 98.8); tract 9502 (Very High, 97.6)
Landslidetract 9504 (Very Low, 59.6); tract 9502 (Very Low, 31.5)
Tornadotract 9504 (Relatively High, 80.8); tract 9502 (Relatively High, 74.6)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 9504 (Relatively Moderate, 92.9); tract 9502 (Relatively Low, 83.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9502 is Census Tract 9502). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)8 records, 2010 to 2021 (8 zone-level)Storm Surge/Tide, 2017-08-25, $20,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars); NWS zone TXZ246Countywide (zone-level records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill4 records, 2021 to 2024 (4 zone-level)2 days to 5 days (median 3.5 days); 4 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-18, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage3 records, 2010 to 2025 (3 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)94 records, 2006 to 2026 (94 zone-level)4 days to 586 days (median 45 days); 23 with a recorded value586 days (about 19.3 months), 2008-05-01 to 2009-12-07, a run of 20 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2022-08-01, $0 property; $13,630,000 crops, reported for the zone (2022 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)38 records, 1993 to 20260.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1.5 in); 38 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1994-12-31Hail, 2015-04-22, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Refugio town (12 records), Woodsboro town (6 records), Bayside town (2 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 2006 to 2024 (4 zone-level)1 day to 2 days (median 1 day); 3 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2024-05-27 to 2024-05-28, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson7 records, 2003 to 2023 (7 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane (Typhoon) record (NOAA's event type name), 2017-08-25 to 2017-08-26, category 4, $500,000,000 property; $20,000,000 crops (2017 dollars); NWS zone TXZ246Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 2011 to 2022 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)52 records, 1997 to 2026 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 52 records.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Refugio town (13 records), Woodsboro town (12 records), Bayside town (4 records). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2016Lightning, 2016-03-09, $25,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Refugio town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)1 record, 2004 (1 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph); 1 with a recorded value40 kt (46 mph) estimated sustained, High Wind, 2004-04-05; NWS zone TXZ246Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)31 records, 1968 to 202250 kt (58 mph) to 61 kt (70 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 24 with a recorded value61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2016-03-09; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2010-06-02, 2015-04-22Thunderstorm Wind, 2015-04-22, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Refugio town (12 records), Woodsboro town (3 records), Bayside town (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)25 records, 1963 to 2020F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF0); 20 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1963-11-08, 1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1963 dollars), 1 direct injuryTornado, 2018-03-28, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bayside town (2 records), Refugio town (2 records), Woodsboro town (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)2 records, 2019 to 2023 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)4 records, 2004 to 2017 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 28 declarations covering 21 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-07-092024-07-05DR-4798-TXMajor disasterHurricane BerylHurricane$102,809.62new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$20,137.43
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-08-242020-08-23EM-3540-TXEmergencyTropical Storms Marco and LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-07-262020-07-25EM-3530-TXEmergencyHurricane HannaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$6,397.25
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2017-08-252017-08-23DR-4332-TXMajor disasterHurricane HarveyHurricane$30,623,199.26
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$33,535.53
2010-06-292010-06-27EM-3313-TXEmergencyTropical Storm AlexHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-09-102008-09-07EM-3294-TXEmergencyHurricane IkeHurricane$25,725.23
2008-08-292008-08-27EM-3290-TXEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-07-242008-07-22DR-1780-TXMajor disasterHurricane DollyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-08-182007-08-17EM-3277-TXEmergencyHurricane DeanHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2007-06-292007-06-16DR-1709-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$63,826.47
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$10,859.92
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$17,365.13same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-07-172003-07-15DR-1479-TXMajor disasterHurricane ClaudetteHurricane$185,321.04
1998-10-211998-10-17DR-1257-TXMajor disasterTx-Flooding 10/18/98Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado$22,334.78
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1991-12-261991-12-20DR-930-TXMajor disasterSevere ThunderstormsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1971-09-181971-09-18DR-313-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, High Winds & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1970-08-041970-08-04DR-292-TXMajor disasterHurricane CeliaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1968-07-051968-07-05DR-246-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1967-09-281967-09-28DR-232-TXMajor disasterHurricane BeulahHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding8010001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave7415001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought9420323001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail38202001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4303001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane71111211996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm4011101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding52141801996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind32011301955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind record.
Tornado25000301950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire2101201996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather4000001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-05-27Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ246 (INLAND REFUGIO COUNTY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2022-08-01Drought$0 property; $13,630,000 crops, reported for the zone (2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ346 (COASTAL REFUGIO COUNTY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c most damaging: Drought
2021-02-14Cold/Wind Chill$90,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ246 (INLAND REFUGIO COUNTY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2017-08-25Storm Surge/Tide$20,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ246 (REFUGIO), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tide
2017-08-25Hurricane (Typhoon), NOAA's event type namecategory 4$500,000,000 property; $20,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ246 (REFUGIO), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2016-03-09Thunderstorm Wind61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust$20,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)0, 0BONNIE VIEWB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2016-03-09Lightning$25,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)0, 0REFUGIOB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2008-05-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ246 (REFUGIO), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2004-04-05High Wind40 kt (46 mph) estimated sustaineddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ246 (REFUGIO), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1995-12-17TornadoF0, 0.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide$40,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)0, 1Refugiodeaths or injuries recorded
1994-12-31Hail2.75 in$3,000 property; crops not recorded (1994 dollars)0, 0N of RefugioB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1963-11-08TornadoF3, 1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1963 dollars)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (278 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding3.69events per year at a location (modeled)about 3.7 per year at a given location in the countyHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from NRI: the rate at a location is 1 or more a year, so the county rate is at least that.
Cold Wave2.67event-days per yearabout 2.67 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)50.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought59.1event-days per yearabout 59.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)1,5822000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000321annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0321%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.07events per yearabout 1.07 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)40.4 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave10.1event-days per yearabout 10.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)1722005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.138events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)481851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.347event-days per yearabout 0.347 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)241946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.39event-days per yearabout 1.39 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 18 of 30 years)event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)391996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0694events per year (modeled)about 1 in 14 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning51.9days per year with a strikeabout 51.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.807events per yearabout 0.81 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)311986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.344events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.00522annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.522%Possible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather0.974event-days per yearabout 0.974 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)18.32005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202516300.533
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202523300.767
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202511300.367
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding2 of 276.283.791.2Relatively Moderate 1, Very Low 1
Cold Wave2 of 298.098.699.2Very High 2
Drought2 of 293.696.599.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Earthquake2 of 29.59.910.2Very Low 2
Hail2 of 266.570.173.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Heat Wave2 of 277.981.184.3Relatively Moderate 2
Hurricane2 of 297.698.298.8Very High 2
Ice Storm2 of 249.054.559.9Relatively Low 2
Inland Flooding2 of 258.872.886.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Landslide2 of 231.545.659.6Very Low 2
Lightning2 of 283.087.592.1Relatively High 2
Strong Wind2 of 259.165.772.3Relatively Moderate 2
Tornado2 of 274.677.780.8Relatively High 2
Tsunami0 of 2Insufficient Data 2
Wildfire2 of 283.788.392.9Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Winter Weather2 of 247.951.455.0Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 2 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 2.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Refugio CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-06-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$17,792,283.940 total; 0 since its planIncludes $20,629.73 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, EM-3261-TX).
Bayside townTownApproved, expires 2027-06-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$1,011,653.609 total; 0 since its plan
Refugio townTownApproved, expires 2027-06-28FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 1$7,210,610.2540 total; 0 since its plan
Woodsboro townTownApproved, expires 2027-06-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$1,177,303.8223 total; 1 since its planIncludes $7,595.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, EM-3261-TX).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-06-29county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$102,814,096n/a494$16,356n/a$3,5140.0159%
Cold Wave$1,704,354,763$46,215,5486,741$5,773$97,386$1,288,6030.000339%$0
Droughtn/a$18,843,393n/an/a$797,888n/a4.23% (agriculture)$13,630,000NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$2,966,491,450n/a6,741$2,312n/a$775under 0.0001%
Hail$1,704,354,763$46,215,5486,741$21,347$5,050$5,5100.00125%$0
Heat Wave$1,704,354,763$46,215,5486,741$12$129$164,178under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$1,704,354,763$46,030,5516,741$3,082,675$268,971$135,7730.181%$25,000$102,809.62
Ice Storm$1,704,354,763n/a6,741$616n/a$7,847under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$1,703,521,385$1,455,339355$1,413,657$26,040$32,895n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,227,327n/a3$5n/a$10.000379%
Lightning$1,704,354,763n/a6,741$3,000n/a$58,2190.000176%
Strong Wind$1,704,354,763$46,215,5486,741$27,859$8,567$7,6210.00163%
Tornado$1,704,354,763$46,215,5486,741$91,605$591$245,4010.00537%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$125,620,760$14,312,4831,368$39,260$508$6,5920.0313%$0
Winter Weather$1,704,354,763$46,215,5486,741$515$65$3,491under 0.0001%

Totals since 2022-06-29 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 3 county-coded records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 29 zone-level records, 23 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $13,655,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $102,809.62 on 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population6,741
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,704,354,763
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$46,215,548
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,910,187
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,960,419
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0120300
of which: Refugio town0100100
of which: Woodsboro town0010100
of which: Bayside city0010100
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Refugio County4855010000000
Bayside town4815860010100
Refugio town4805400100100
Woodsboro town4809870010100

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0120300
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 2 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Refugio County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48391). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48391/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.