Red River County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No approved plan on record.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan in review.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Ice Storm ($10,863,727 a year), Tornado ($1,778,282) and Inland Flooding ($962,033).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Terms used

EAL:: expected annual loss: FEMA's modeled average yearly loss from a hazard.
NRI:: FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025).
NFIP:: National Flood Insurance Program.
RL, SRL:: repetitive loss and severe repetitive loss: flood-insured properties with repeated claims (definitions in B2-c).
FMA, HMGP:: Flood Mitigation Assistance and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, FEMA mitigation grants.
PA:: FEMA Public Assistance: disaster aid to governments and some nonprofits.
Zone-level:: NOAA logged the event for a National Weather Service forecast zone, which may include parts of neighboring counties.
County-coded:: NOAA logged the event to this county.
FIPS:: the federal code for a place; 48387 is this area.
D0 to D4:: U.S. Drought Monitor categories, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4).
F/EF, EFU:: Fujita and Enhanced Fujita tornado ratings; EFU is an unrated tornado.
kt, CONUS:: knots (1 kt is about 1.15 mph); the contiguous United States.
CFR:: Code of Federal Regulations.
A4-a, E1-a:: other items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool (sources, and changes since the last plan).
Dollars:: nominal (as reported, labeled with the year), not adjusted for inflation.

Plan clock

Status:: No approved plan on record
Plan:: none
Approved:: none
Expires:: none
Update underway:: FEMA tracker shows a plan in review

FEMA's plan status data lists no approved plan for this jurisdiction.

What changed since your last plan

Not available. No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

Jurisdiction	Type	Status	Plan	Approved	Expires	Update underway
Red River County	County	No approved plan on record	none	none	none	FEMA tracker shows a plan in review
Avery town	Town	No approved plan on record	none	none	none	FEMA tracker shows a plan in review
Bogata city	City	No approved plan on record	none	none	none	FEMA tracker shows a plan in review
Clarksville city	City	No approved plan on record	none	none	none	FEMA tracker shows a plan in review
Detroit town	Town	No approved plan on record	none	none	none	FEMA tracker shows a plan in review

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
levee failure
flash flood as its own subtype
ice jams
debris flows
erosion (riverine and coastal)
land subsidence and sinkholes
expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EAL	Hazard	NRI risk rating	EAL rating	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year	Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count	Storm Events coverage note
1	Ice Storm	Very High	Very High	$10,841,359	n/a	$22,368	$10,863,727	7
2	Tornado	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Low	$342,213	$1,619	$1,434,450	$1,778,282	19
3	Inland Flooding	Very Low	Very Low	$953,006	$2,094	$6,934	$962,033	59
4	Drought	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	n/a	$530,700	n/a	$530,700	57
5	Cold Wave	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$15,232	$112	$395,753	$411,097	7
6	Heat Wave	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$49	$597	$340,313	$340,959	71
7	Hail	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$229,055	$752	$13,564	$243,371	107
8	Strong Wind	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$78,346	$157	$159,043	$237,546	123
9	Earthquake	Very Low	Very Low	$60,020	n/a	$22,980	$83,001		Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
10	Lightning	Relatively Low	Very Low	$3,108	n/a	$79,285	$82,393	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
11	Wildfire	Very Low	Very Low	$33,607	$1,333	$17,049	$51,989	2
12	Hurricane	Very Low	Very Low	$10,704	$22,965	$703	$34,373	0	Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13	Winter Weather	Very Low	Relatively Low	$12,131	$600	$1,784	$14,515	34
14	Landslide	Very Low	Very Low	$11	n/a	$2	$12	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

Hazard	Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquake	tract 9505.01 (Relatively Low, 57.2); tract 9505.02 (Relatively Low, 52.6); tract 9506 (Relatively Low, 47.3)
Hurricane	tract 9506 (Relatively Low, 54.3); tract 9505.02 (Relatively Low, 53.6); tract 9501 (Very Low, 50.7)
Landslide	tract 9501 (Very Low, 58.3); tract 9505.02 (Very Low, 51.3); tract 9507 (Very Low, 50.4)
Tornado	tract 9506 (Very High, 97.2); tract 9505.01 (Very High, 96.4); tract 9505.02 (Very High, 95.5)
Wildfire	tract 9505.02 (Relatively Low, 88.0); tract 9501 (Relatively Low, 87.5); tract 9506 (Relatively Low, 85.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9505.01 is Census Tract 9505.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

Hazard	Scale	Recordscount and years	Observed range	Worst recorded event	Most damaging (when different)	How it applies to jurisdictions	Note
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill	wind chill	7 records, 2010 to 2026 (7 zone-level)	3 days to 4 days (median 3.5 days); 6 with a recorded value	4 consecutive days, 2026-01-24 to 2026-01-27, zone-level	Cold/Wind Chill, 2010-01-07, $150,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).	Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)	crop damage	0					Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Drought	U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)	57 records, 1996 to 2026 (57 zone-level)	15 days to 445 days (median 36 days); 19 with a recorded value	445 days (about 14.6 months), 2011-01-01 to 2012-03-20, a run of 15 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-level	Drought, 1996-05-01, property not reported; $4,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (1996 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).	Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
Earthquake	Modified Mercalli (local data)	0					Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	hail size (inches)	181 records, 1955 to 2024	0.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 181 with a recorded value	2.75 in hail, 1984-03-27; same size also recorded on 1972-03-24, 1979-05-03	Hail, 2011-04-19, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)	Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Clarksville city (38 records), Bogata city (21 records), Detroit town (17 records), Avery town (11 records).
Excessive Heat, Heat	heat index (in event narratives)	71 records, 2011 to 2025 (71 zone-level)	1 day to 94 days (median 4.5 days); 52 with a recorded value	2011-06-01 to 2011-09-02 (4 records, 3 of them monthly summary records), zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression	Saffir-Simpson	0					Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice Storm	Sperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)	7 records, 1997 to 2005 (7 zone-level)		Ice Storm, 2000-12-12, $123,000,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars); NWS zone TXZ096		Countywide (zone-level records).	Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood	damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)	59 records, 1996 to 2026		Flash Flood, 2015-11-27, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Clarksville city (12 records), Detroit town (7 records), Bogata city (5 records), Avery town (4 records).	Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flow	none (count and damage only)	0					Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightning	annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)	0					Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)	wind speed (kt and mph)	0
Thunderstorm Wind	wind speed (kt and mph)	183 records, 1960 to 2026	50 kt (58 mph) to 78 kt (90 mph) (median 55.5 kt (64 mph)); 132 with a recorded value	78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-03-02; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2016-05-09	Thunderstorm Wind, 2016-03-17, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)	Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Clarksville city (48 records), Bogata city (15 records), Avery town (8 records), Detroit town (6 records).	Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range.
Tornado	Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)	40 records, 1961 to 2025	F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 40 with a recorded value	EF4 tornado, 2022-11-04, 27.93 mi within this county, 1,056 yd wide, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars), 7 direct injuries	Tornado, 1982-04-02, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars)	Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Avery town (4 records), Detroit town (2 records), Clarksville city (1 record).	Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfire	acres burned (local data)	2 records, 2010 to 2011 (2 zone-level)		Wildfire, 2011-09-07, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars); NWS zone TXZ096		Countywide (zone-level records).	Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet	none in data (snowfall: local data)	34 records, 2006 to 2026 (34 zone-level)		Winter Storm, 2021-02-16, $4,800,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars); NWS zone TXZ096		Countywide (zone-level records).	Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 26 declarations covering 19 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard	County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars	Flags	Notes
2024-05-17	2024-04-26	DR-4781-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornado	no Public Assistance recorded	within last 5 years
2023-04-21	2023-01-30	DR-4705-TX	Major disaster	Severe Winter Storm	Winter Weather	no Public Assistance recorded	within last 5 years
2021-02-19	2021-02-11	DR-4586-TX	Major disaster	Severe Winter Storms	Ice Storm	no Public Assistance recorded
2021-02-14	2021-02-11	EM-3554-TX	Emergency	Severe Winter Storm	Ice Storm	no Public Assistance recorded		same incident as DR-4586
2020-08-24	2020-08-23	EM-3540-TX	Emergency	Tropical Storms Marco and Laura	Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-25	2020-01-20	DR-4485-TX	Major disaster	COVID-19 Pandemic	Non-natural, not counted	no Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-13	2020-01-20	EM-3458-TX	Emergency	COVID-19	Non-natural, not counted	no Public Assistance recorded		same incident as DR-4485
2016-03-19	2016-03-07	DR-4266-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado	$80,879.55
2016-02-09	2015-12-26	DR-4255-TX	Major disaster	Severe Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding	Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado; Winter Weather	$203,955.21
2015-05-29	2015-05-04	DR-4223-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding	Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado	$512,204.72
2011-09-09	2011-08-30	DR-4029-TX	Major disaster	Wildfires	Wildfire	$32,156.94
2011-07-01	2011-04-06	DR-1999-TX	Major disaster	Wildfires	Wildfire	$19,751.45
2008-03-14	2008-03-14	EM-3284-TX	Emergency	Wildfires	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-11	2005-11-27	DR-1624-TX	Major disaster	Extreme Wildfire Threat	Wildfire	$15,000.22
2005-09-24	2005-09-23	DR-1606-TX	Major disaster	Hurricane Rita	Hurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted	no Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-21	2005-09-20	EM-3261-TX	Emergency	Hurricane Rita	Hurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted	no Public Assistance recorded		same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-02	2005-08-29	EM-3216-TX	Emergency	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Hurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted	no Public Assistance recorded
2001-01-08	2000-12-12	DR-1356-TX	Major disaster	Severe Winter Ice Storm	Ice Storm	$3,668,052.95
1999-09-01	1999-08-01	EM-3142-TX	Emergency	Extreme Fire Hazards	Wildfire	no Public Assistance recorded
1999-05-06	1999-05-04	DR-1274-TX	Major disaster	Tx, Tornado 5/4/99	Tornado	PA not declared for this county
1998-08-26	1998-08-22	DR-1239-TX	Major disaster	Tropical Storm Charley	Hurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not counted	PA not declared for this county
1990-05-02	1990-04-15	DR-863-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding	Inland Flooding; Tornado	no Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-19	1989-05-04	DR-828-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding	Inland Flooding; Tornado	no Public Assistance recorded
1973-06-25	1973-06-25	DR-393-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms & Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded
1972-01-27	1972-01-27	DR-320-TX	Major disaster	Heavy Rains & Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded
1966-05-12	1966-05-12	DR-218-TX	Major disaster	Severe Storms & Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard
1998-06-23	1998-06-04	EM-3127-TX	Emergency	Fire	Wildfire
1963-09-24	1963-09-24	DR-159-TX	Major disaster	Hurricane Cindy	Hurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-16	1961-09-16	DR-118-TX	Major disaster	Hurricane Carla	Hurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-15	1960-07-15	DR-103-TX	Major disaster	Heavy Rains, Hail, Floods & Tornadoes	Hail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-08	1959-07-08	DR-93-TX	Major disaster	Floods	Inland Flooding
1958-06-06	1958-06-06	DR-85-TX	Major disaster	Tornadoes, Rain, Hail & Floods	Tornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-29	1957-04-29	DR-72-TX	Major disaster	Hurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & Floods	Hurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-01	1954-07-01	DR-18-TX	Major disaster	Flood	Inland Flooding
1953-06-19	1953-06-19	DR-9-TX	Major disaster	Flood	Inland Flooding
1953-05-15	1953-05-15	DR-2-TX	Major disaster	Tornado & Heavy Rainfall	Tornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

Hazard	Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)	Last 5 yearsrecords	Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters	Period	Statement
Cold Wave	7	4	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Drought	57	18	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake	0	0	0		Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	181	12	0	1955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave	71	39	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane	0	0	1	1996 to 2026-06-30	No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm	7	0	2	1996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding	59	8	9	1996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind	183	18	3	1955 to 2026-06-30
Tornado	40	6	7	1950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire	2	0	5	1996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather	34	9	2	1996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

Date	Event type	Magnitude or extent	Damagenominal dollars	Deaths, injuriesdirect only	Location	Flags	Why listed
2026-01-24	Cold/Wind Chill		$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2026 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone TXZ096 (RED RIVER), zone-level	within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2023-03-02	Thunderstorm Wind	78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust	$0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)	0, 0	MC COY	within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2022-11-04	Tornado	EF4, 27.93 mi within this county, 1,056 yd wide	$2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)	0, 7	RUGBY to ACWORTH	within last 5 years	deaths or injuries recorded
2021-02-16	Winter Storm		$4,800,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone TXZ096 (RED RIVER), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2015-11-27	Flash Flood		$10,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)	0, 0	BAGWELL		B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-09-07	Wildfire		$200,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone TXZ096 (RED RIVER), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2011-06-01	Excessive Heat		$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone TXZ096 (RED RIVER), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2011-01-01	Drought		$0 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone TXZ096 (RED RIVER), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Drought
2000-12-12	Ice Storm		$123,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2000 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone TXZ096 (RED RIVER), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
1999-05-04	Tornado	F2, 1.8 mi within this county, 100 yd wide	$600,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)	0, 7	CLARKSVILLE		deaths or injuries recorded
1984-03-27	Hail	2.75 in	damage not recorded (pre-1996 record)	0, 0	location not recorded		B1-c worst recorded: Hail
1982-04-02	Tornado	F4, 6 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 250 yd wide	$25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars)	0, 0	location not recorded		B1-c most damaging: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (641 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

Hazard	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row	Unit	In plain terms	Descriptor	Descriptor basis	NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)	NRI period	Location	Note
Cold Wave	1	event-day per year	about 1 day per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)	event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)	19	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Drought	35	event-days per year	about 35 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 14 of 30 years)	event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)	1,246	2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)	countywide
Earthquake	0.00157	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.157%			not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail	4.87	events per year	about 4.87 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	185.1 (modeled)	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Heat Wave	18.1	event-days per year	about 18.1 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 12 of 30 years)	event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)	306	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Hurricane	0.0136	events per year	about 1 in 73 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	4	1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)	see B1-f	NRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm	1.16	event-days per year	about 1.16 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)	event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)	78	1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)	countywide
Inland Flooding	1.11	event-days per year	about 1.11 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)	event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)	31	1996 to 2023 (28 years)	see B1-f
Landslide	0.164	events per year (modeled)	about 1 in 6 years	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Lightning	60.3	days per year with a strike	about 60.3 days per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)	countywide
Strong Wind	3.83	events per year	about 3.83 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	146	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Tornado	0.717	events per year	about 0.72 per year	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)	see B1-f
Wildfire	0.00255	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.255%	Possible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)	Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f	Descriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather	4.16	event-days per year	about 4.16 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 17 of 30 years)	event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)	79	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

Unit	Descriptor	Definition
events per year	Highly likely	1 or more per year
events per year	Likely	about once in 1 to 10 years
events per year	Possible	about once in 10 to 100 years
events per year	Unlikely	less than once in 100 years
annual probability	Likely	10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probability	Possible	1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probability	Unlikely	under 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)	Highly likely	event-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)	Likely	event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)	Possible	event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-days	Highly likely	cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

Hazard	Band	Years	Eventscounty-coded records	Years in period	Events per yearevents / years
Hail	1.00-1.99 in	1996 to 2025	64	30	2.13
Hail	2.00 in+	1996 to 2025	6	30	0.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	50-64 kt	1996 to 2025	105	30	3.5
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	65 kt+	1996 to 2025	16	30	0.533
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	unmeasured or below 50 kt	1996 to 2025	0	30	0
Tornado	EF0-1	1996 to 2025	14	30	0.467
Tornado	EF2-3	1996 to 2025	4	30	0.133
Tornado	EF4-5	1996 to 2025	1	30	0.0333
Tornado	unrated (EFU)	1996 to 2025	0	30	0

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

Hazard	Tractsrated of all	NRI risk score, 0 to 100			Tracts by rating
Hazard	Tractsrated of all	Min	Median	Max	Tracts by rating
Cold Wave	5 of 5	62.3	70.7	75.9	Relatively Moderate 5
Drought	5 of 5	92.4	96.5	98.2	Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4
Earthquake	5 of 5	26.8	47.3	57.2	Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2
Hail	5 of 5	78.4	88.7	89.9	Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 2
Heat Wave	5 of 5	68.8	77.5	83.1	Relatively Moderate 5
Hurricane	5 of 5	48.6	50.7	54.3	Relatively Low 2, Very Low 3
Ice Storm	5 of 5	100.0	100.0	100.0	Very High 5
Inland Flooding	5 of 5	5.8	19.9	25.1	Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2
Landslide	5 of 5	29.7	50.4	58.3	Very Low 5
Lightning	5 of 5	61.2	72.5	79.1	Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4
Strong Wind	5 of 5	71.1	85.6	88.3	Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado	5 of 5	87.5	95.5	97.2	Very High 3, Relatively High 2
Wildfire	5 of 5	67.4	85.8	88.0	Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Winter Weather	5 of 5	48.1	65.2	67.3	Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

Jurisdiction	Type	Plan status	Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition	Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars	Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Red River County	County	No approved plan on record	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$4,042,141.67	0 total; no approved plan
Avery town	Town	No approved plan on record	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$41,981.36	27 total; no approved plan
Bogata city	City	No approved plan on record	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$47,094.01	41 total; no approved plan
Clarksville city	City	No approved plan on record	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$313,391.77	99 total; no approved plan
Detroit town	Town	No approved plan on record	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$55,046.37	32 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
Future assets
Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

Hazard	Building exposuremodeled dollars	Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars	Population exposedpeople	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted	Note
Cold Wave	$1,702,723,670	$121,076,206	11,567	$15,232	$112	$395,753	0.000895%
Drought	n/a	$8,465,015	n/a	n/a	$530,700	n/a	6.27% (agriculture)	NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake	$2,982,000,715	n/a	11,587	$60,020	n/a	$22,980	0.00201%
Hail	$1,702,723,926	$121,076,206	11,567	$229,055	$752	$13,564	0.0135%
Heat Wave	$1,702,723,670	$121,076,206	11,567	$49	$597	$340,313	under 0.0001%
Hurricane	$1,691,508,879	$116,953,259	11,462	$10,704	$22,965	$703	0.000633%
Ice Storm	$1,702,723,670	n/a	11,567	$10,841,359	n/a	$22,368	0.637%
Inland Flooding	$1,702,340,114	$136,680	94	$953,006	$2,094	$6,934	n/a (see note)	NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide	$1,201,113	n/a	9	$11	n/a	$2	0.000897%
Lightning	$1,702,723,926	n/a	11,567	$3,108	n/a	$79,285	0.000183%
Strong Wind	$1,702,723,926	$121,076,206	11,567	$78,346	$157	$159,043	0.0046%
Tornado	$1,702,723,926	$121,076,206	11,567	$342,213	$1,619	$1,434,450	0.0201%
Wildfire	$188,603,535	$73,040,799	4,390	$33,607	$1,333	$17,049	0.0178%
Winter Weather	$1,702,723,670	$121,076,206	11,567	$12,131	$600	$1,784	0.000712%

Totals since the plan: not available. No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

Measure	Value
Population	11,567
Building value (total, not at risk)	$1,702,723,926
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)	$121,076,206
NRI risk rating (all hazards)	Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards	$13,139,771
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)	$2,494,227
Social vulnerability rating	Very High
Community resilience rating	Relatively Low
NRI version	December 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

Definition	Properties	Severe repetitive loss	Properties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0	Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	0	Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

Scope	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
County total	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file	3	8	12	7	13	1	9

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

Jurisdiction	NFIP community ID	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
Red River County	480981	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Avery town	480983	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bogata city	480984	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Clarksville city	481253	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Detroit town	480985	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Red River County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48387). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48387/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.