Hazard Plain Hand-checked on 2026-09-28

Panola County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48365
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2024-10-02. Plan: Panola County (FEMA plan 105534), approved 2019-10-03.

Since the plan was approved on 2019-10-03: 5 new hazard declarations (4 incidents): EM-3540-TX (Tropical Storms Marco and Laura), EM-3554-TX (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms), DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl); also 2 COVID-19 declarations (not counted).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 185 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,902,660 a year), Tornado ($2,980,703) and Strong Wind ($1,708,551).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 2.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2024-10-02
Plan:
Panola County (FEMA plan 105534)
Approved:
2019-10-03
Days since expiry:
728
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2019-10-03)

New federal declarations:
5 new hazard declarations (4 incidents): EM-3540-TX (Tropical Storms Marco and Laura), EM-3554-TX (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms), DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl); also 2 COVID-19 declarations (not counted)
Storm Events records since approval:
185 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 2
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Panola CountyCountyExpired on 2024-10-02Panola County (FEMA plan 105534)2019-10-032024-10-02-728
Beckville cityCityExpired on 2024-10-02Panola County (FEMA plan 105534)2019-10-032024-10-02-728
Carthage cityCityExpired on 2024-10-02Panola County (FEMA plan 105534)2019-10-032024-10-02-728FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Gary City townTownExpired on 2024-10-02Panola County (FEMA plan 105534)2019-10-032024-10-02-728this jurisdiction approved 2019-11-22
Tatum cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-16Rusk County (FEMA plan 104882)2021-11-172026-11-1647
Tatum Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2026-11-16Rusk County (FEMA plan 104882)2021-11-172026-11-1647

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowVery Low$3,901,890$195$575$3,902,66037
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,489,320$3,301$1,488,082$2,980,70330
3Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$943,804$155,080$609,667$1,708,551171
4HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$874,657$175,710$14,023$1,064,3902
5HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$884,972$689$20,842$906,50372
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,129$729$816,291$819,14986
7Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$479,800n/a$76,251$556,0514
8Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$5,202$69,038$332,328$406,5686
9EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$157,199n/a$45,476$202,675Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
10WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$130,800$580$11,856$143,2372
11LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$28,009n/a$99,026$127,0353
12Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$69,077$423$6,762$76,26221
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$83n/a$3$860No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$044

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9504.02 (Relatively Low, 68.2); tract 9503 (Relatively Low, 63.7); tract 9504.01 (Relatively Low, 55.2)
Hurricanetract 9503 (Relatively Moderate, 85.8); tract 9504.02 (Relatively Moderate, 84.4); tract 9502 (Relatively Moderate, 83.9)
Landslidetract 9502 (Very Low, 75.0); tract 9506 (Very Low, 70.0); tract 9505 (Very Low, 69.5)
Tornadotract 9503 (Very High, 98.5); tract 9504.02 (Very High, 98.1); tract 9501 (Very High, 96.7)
Wildfiretract 9503 (Relatively Moderate, 92.5); tract 9502 (Relatively Moderate, 91.8); tract 9501 (Relatively Moderate, 90.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9504.02 is Census Tract 9504.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill6 records, 2010 to 2026 (6 zone-level)2 days to 4 days (median 3 days); 6 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2026-01-24 to 2026-01-27, zone-levelCold/Wind Chill, 2010-01-07, $100,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)44 records, 1996 to 2026 (44 zone-level)7 days to 476 days (median 46 days); 14 with a recorded value476 days (about 15.6 months), 2010-12-01 to 2012-03-20, a run of 16 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)171 records, 1957 to 20260.5 in to 3.5 in (median 1 in); 171 with a recorded value3.5 in hail, 2023-06-13Hail, 1993-02-15, $50,000 property; crops not recorded (1993 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carthage city (33 records), Gary City town (8 records), Tatum city (7 records), Beckville city (6 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)86 records, 2011 to 2025 (86 zone-level)1 day to 94 days (median 4 days); 55 with a recorded value2011-06-01 to 2011-09-02 (4 records, 3 of them monthly summary records), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson2 records, 2008 to 2020 (2 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2008-09-13, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars); NWS zone TXZ151Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1997 to 2000 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)37 records, 1997 to 2024 (2 zone-level)Flash Flood, 1999-01-29, $10,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carthage city (10 records), Beckville city (5 records), Gary City town (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 1999 to 2023Lightning, 2011-06-21, $30,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Gary City town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)0
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)270 records, 1960 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 104 kt (120 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 185 with a recorded value104 kt (120 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2017-04-02Thunderstorm Wind, 2005-03-31, $700,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carthage city (66 records), Beckville city (18 records), Gary City town (10 records), Tatum city (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)51 records, 1953 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 50 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1987-11-15, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1987 dollars), 5 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tatum city (5 records), Beckville city (3 records), Carthage city (3 records), Gary City town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)2 records, 2013 to 2023 (2 zone-level)Wildfire, 2013-09-09, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars); NWS zone TXZ151Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)21 records, 2006 to 2026 (21 zone-level)No damage reported in 21 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 24 declarations covering 15 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-07-092024-07-05DR-4798-TXMajor disasterHurricane BerylHurricaneno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-05-172024-04-26DR-4781-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornado$133,196.42new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4586
2020-08-242020-08-23EM-3540-TXEmergencyTropical Storms Marco and LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4485
2011-09-092011-08-30DR-4029-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2011-07-012011-04-06DR-1999-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2008-09-132008-09-07DR-1791-TXMajor disasterHurricane IkeHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$286,617.72
2008-09-102008-09-07EM-3294-TXEmergencyHurricane IkeHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1791
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$2,756.89
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$9,485.19
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$39,592.76
2003-02-012003-02-01EM-3171-TXEmergencyLoss of the Space Shuttle ColumbiaNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-01-082000-12-12DR-1356-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Storm$79,809.79
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1996-02-231996-02-23EM-3117-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-191989-05-04DR-828-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1989-04-231989-03-28DR-823-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1987-11-201987-11-15DR-802-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & TornadoesTornadoPA not declared for this county

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6403001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought4416016001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1711617001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave8658744001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane2100321996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm4000211996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding37843411996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3101001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind27061829111955 to 2026-06-30
Tornado511227311950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire2101601996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather21714001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-01-24Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ151 (PANOLA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2023-06-13Hail3.5 in$0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)0, 0LAKE MURVAULnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2021-03-27TornadoEF2, 15.84 mi within this county, 1,600 yd wide$1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)1, 3CARTHAGE to FRONTnew since last plandeaths or injuries recorded
2017-04-02Thunderstorm Wind104 kt (120 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0CARTHAGE CO ARPTB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2013-09-09Wildfire$10,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2013 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ151 (PANOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2011-06-21Lightning$30,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0GARYB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2011-06-01Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ151 (PANOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2010-12-01Drought$0 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ151 (PANOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2008-09-13Tropical Storm$400,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ151 (PANOLA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2005-03-31Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$700,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)0, 3BECKVILLEdeaths or injuries recorded
1999-01-29Flash Flood$10,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)0, 0DE BERRYB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1987-11-15TornadoF3, 8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1987 dollars)0, 5location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (697 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.684event-days per yearabout 0.684 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)132005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought25.1event-days per yearabout 25.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 14 of 30 years)event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)7632000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00111annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.111%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.97events per yearabout 4.97 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)188.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave20.6event-days per yearabout 20.6 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 12 of 30 years)event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)3482005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0619events per yearabout 1 in 16 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)201851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.26event-days per yearabout 1.26 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)851946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.857event-days per yearabout 0.857 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 16 of 30 years)event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)241996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.133events per year (modeled)about 1 in 8 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning63.9days per year with a strikeabout 63.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind5.93events per yearabout 5.93 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)2261986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.709events per yearabout 0.71 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00105annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.105%Possible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather2.74event-days per yearabout 2.74 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 13 of 30 years)event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)522005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202537301.23
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025148304.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202522300.733
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202524300.8
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave7 of 746.560.668.7Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 1
Drought0 of 7No Rating 7
Earthquake7 of 732.353.068.2Relatively Low 6, Very Low 1
Hail7 of 790.594.597.0Relatively High 7
Heat Wave7 of 775.088.792.0Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 2
Hurricane7 of 780.783.485.8Relatively Moderate 7
Ice Storm7 of 792.997.198.5Very High 2, Relatively High 5
Inland Flooding7 of 738.362.178.0Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 3
Landslide7 of 723.065.075.0Very Low 7
Lightning7 of 757.873.682.7Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 5
Strong Wind7 of 797.599.199.5Very High 7
Tornado7 of 789.296.398.5Very High 5, Relatively High 2
Wildfire7 of 771.088.592.5Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 3
Winter Weather7 of 778.086.592.5Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 1

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Panola CountyCountyExpired on 2024-10-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$193,473.820 total; 0 since its planIncludes $42,840.56 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, EM-3216-TX).
Beckville cityCityExpired on 2024-10-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded32 total; 7 since its plan
Carthage cityCityExpired on 2024-10-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$351,747.56112 total; 13 since its plan
Gary City townTownExpired on 2024-10-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded21 total; 3 since its plan
Tatum cityCityApproved, expires 2026-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded14 total; 3 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2019-10-03county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$9,787,054,803$129,642,41122,480$5,202$69,038$332,328under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/a$0agriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$15,988,806,725n/a22,491$157,199n/a$45,4760.000983%
Hail$9,787,054,803$129,642,41122,480$884,972$689$20,8420.00904%$0
Heat Wave$9,787,054,803$129,642,41122,480$2,129$729$816,291under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$9,787,054,803$129,625,87822,480$874,657$175,710$14,0230.00894%$0no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)
Ice Storm$9,787,054,803n/a22,480$479,800n/a$76,2510.0049%no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)
Inland Flooding$9,782,258,529$17,50810$3,901,890$195$575n/a (see note)$0$133,196.42NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$11,424,807n/a35$83n/a$30.000723%
Lightning$9,787,054,803n/a22,480$28,009n/a$99,0260.000286%$5,000
Strong Wind$9,787,054,803$129,642,41122,480$943,804$155,080$609,6670.00964%$0$133,196.42
Tornado$9,787,054,803$129,642,41122,480$1,489,320$3,301$1,488,0820.0152%$2,645,000$133,196.42
Wildfire$1,615,787,398$75,792,0608,559$130,800$580$11,8560.0081%$0
Winter Weather$9,787,054,803$129,642,41122,480$69,077$423$6,7620.000706%$0

Totals since 2019-10-03 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 98 county-coded records, 98 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $2,650,000; 87 zone-level records, 87 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $133,196.42 on 5 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population22,480
Building value (total, not at risk)$9,787,054,803
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$129,642,411
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$9,372,688
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$3,521,182
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0020201
of which: Carthage city0010100
of which: Panola County (unincorporated area)0010101
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Panola County4809660010101
Beckville city4809670000000
Carthage city4805190010100
Gary City town4811480000000
Tatum city4809950000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0020201
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 2 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Panola County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48365). Hand-checked on 2026-09-28. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48365/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. This packet was hand-checked against FEMA and NOAA sources on 2026-09-28.