Hazard Plain Hand-checked on 2026-09-28

Lynn County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48305
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2025-11-01. Plan: Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151), approved 2020-11-02.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions.

Since the plan was approved on 2020-11-02: 3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3554-TX (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms), DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 88 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hail ($2,100,752 a year), Drought ($1,765,133) and Strong Wind ($860,745).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2025-11-01
Plan:
Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)
Approved:
2020-11-02
Days since expiry:
333
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2020-11-02)

New federal declarations:
3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3554-TX (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms), DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
88 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 14 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underway
Lynn CountyCountyExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
New Home cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
O'Donnell cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Tahoka cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Wilson cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
New Home Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
O'Donnell Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Tahoka Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Wilson Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Name not given in FEMA data (ID R06_205158)School/School DistrictExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333
Name not given in FEMA data (ID R06_205159)School/School DistrictExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333
Name not given in FEMA data (ID R06_205160)School/School DistrictExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333
Name not given in FEMA data (ID R06_205161)School/School DistrictExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333
Lynn County Hospital DistrictHospital/Medical FacilityExpired on 2025-11-01Lamb and Lynn Counties (FEMA plan 106151)2020-11-022025-11-01-333FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions

Plan 106151 lists 12 other participants, named in the Excel file.

FEMA plan data lists 4 school district rows with no name (FEMA IDs only) and 4 named school districts. FEMA files some districts under two ID schemes on different plans, so a named district's 'No approved plan on record' can sit beside an unnamed row that has a plan.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HailRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$446,785$1,629,928$24,039$2,100,752167
2DroughtRelatively HighRelatively Highn/a$1,765,133n/a$1,765,13398
3Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$248,079$416,952$195,714$860,745176Includes 67 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$229,324$2,797$344,174$576,29517
5Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$503,129$442$159$503,73041
6Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$2,207$19$182,249$184,4754Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
7WildfireVery LowVery Low$51,613$348$1,569$53,5302
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$49$2,984$28,563$31,5960No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
9Ice StormVery LowVery Low$15,187n/a$3,296$18,4834
10Winter WeatherVery LowRelatively Low$12,197$325$4,329$16,85254
11LightningVery LowVery Low$3,722n/a$12,569$16,2901
12EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$8,462n/a$2,278$10,740Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$1,230$4,879$9$6,1180Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
14LandslideVery LowVery Lowunder $1n/aunder $1under $10No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9505 (Very Low, 17.6); tract 9504 (Very Low, 16.1); tract 9506 (Very Low, 15.1)
Hurricanetract 9506 (Very Low, 43.5); tract 9504 (Very Low, 43.1); tract 9505 (Very Low, 30.4)
Landslidetract 9504 (Very Low, 23.8); tract 9505 (Very Low, 15.6); tract 9506 (Very Low, 11.1)
Tornadotract 9505 (Relatively High, 89.4); tract 9504 (Relatively High, 76.6); tract 9506 (Relatively Moderate, 65.0)
Wildfiretract 9506 (Relatively Moderate, 89.7); tract 9504 (Relatively Moderate, 89.1); tract 9505 (Relatively Low, 78.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9505 is Census Tract 9505). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill3 records, 2011 to 2026 (3 zone-level)2 days to 4 days (median 4 days); 3 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2026-01-23 to 2026-01-26, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2011 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)98 records, 1996 to 2022 (98 zone-level)20 days to 1,278 days (median 121 days); 14 with a recorded value1278 days (about 42.0 months), 2011-04-01 to 2014-09-29, a run of 42 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 1996-06-01, $100,000 property; $500,000 crops, reported for the zone (1996 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)251 records, 1957 to 20260.75 in to 4.25 in (median 1.75 in); 251 with a recorded value4.25 in hail, 2005-06-05Hail, 1999-06-11, property not reported; $6,000,000 crops (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tahoka city (53 records), Wilson city (33 records), O'Donnell city (28 records), New Home city (25 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 2007 to 2015 (4 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2007-01-12, $150,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone TXZ041Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)41 records, 1996 to 2026Flash Flood, 2015-05-04, $300,000 property; $250,000,000 crops (2015 dollars) (as recorded; larger than this county's annual agriculture value in the National Risk Index (the county or state extension service keeps crop loss records))Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tahoka city (13 records), O'Donnell city (9 records), Wilson city (8 records), New Home city (5 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2010Lightning, 2010-06-14, $25,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tahoka city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)69 records, 1996 to 2026 (69 zone-level)34 kt (39 mph) to 63 kt (72 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 65 with a recorded value63 kt (72 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2025-03-14; NWS zone TXZ041Strong Wind, 2010-10-25, $0 property; $250,000 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)125 records, 1963 to 2026 (6 zone-level)37 kt (43 mph) to 83 kt (96 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 96 with a recorded value83 kt (96 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-05-29Thunderstorm Wind, 1999-06-11, $1,400,000 property; $2,000,000 crops (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tahoka city (42 records), O'Donnell city (39 records), New Home city (10 records), Wilson city (6 records). Zone-level records (6) apply countywide.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)45 records, 1957 to 2019F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF0); 45 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1957-05-24, 17.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1957 dollars), 1 direct injuryEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tahoka city (7 records), New Home city (3 records), Wilson city (3 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)2 records, 2011 to 2022 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)54 records, 1997 to 2026 (54 zone-level)Blizzard, 2015-12-26, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); NWS zone TXZ041Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 18 declarations covering 11 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-05-172024-04-26DR-4781-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornado$29,726.53new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$4,443.81new since last plan
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4586
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approvalsame incident as DR-4485
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$138,789.57
2011-07-012011-04-06DR-1999-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfire$10,365.94
2010-08-032010-06-30DR-1931-TXMajor disasterHurricane AlexHurricane$298,980.28
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$7,586.71
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-01-082000-12-12DR-1356-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1993-09-101993-08-30EM-3113-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardDrought (primary); also designated: Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1992-09-091992-05-01DR-960-TXMajor disasterExcessive Rain & HailHailPA not declared for this county

School districts and special districts in this county: $53,694.29 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave4101001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought981237101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail25117615101955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm4000211996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding41606211996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind19442637211955 to 2026-06-30Includes 67 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado45000211950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire2101501996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather54925001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-01-23Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ041 (LYNN), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2025-03-14High Wind63 kt (72 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ041 (LYNN), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2024-05-29Thunderstorm Wind83 kt (96 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0TAHOKAnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2019-03-12Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$50,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)0, 1ODONNELLdeaths or injuries recorded
2015-12-26Blizzard$400,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2015 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ041 (LYNN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2015-05-04Flash Flood$300,000 property; $250,000,000 crops (2015 dollars) (as recorded; larger than this county's annual agriculture value in the National Risk Index (the county or state extension service keeps crop loss records))0, 0NEW HOME ARPT to NEW MOOREB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2014-04-28High Wind52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2014 dollars)0, 1NWS zone TXZ041 (LYNN), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2011-04-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ041 (LYNN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2007-01-12Ice Storm$150,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ041 (LYNN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2005-06-05Hail4.25 indamage not reported0, 0WILSONB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1999-06-11Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$1,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)0, 2ODONNELLdeaths or injuries recorded
1957-05-24TornadoF3, 17.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1957 dollars)0, 1location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (694 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.895event-days per yearabout 0.895 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)172005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought77.8event-days per yearabout 77.8 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)2,2892000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000239annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0239%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.8events per yearabout 4.8 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)182.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.53event-days per yearabout 2.53 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)432005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.00754events per yearabout 1 in 133 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.386event-days per yearabout 0.386 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)261946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.21event-days per yearabout 1.21 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 19 of 30 years)event-days in 19 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (63.3%)341996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0783events per year (modeled)about 1 in 13 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning47.5days per year with a strikeabout 47.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.15events per yearabout 2.15 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)821986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.539events per yearabout 0.54 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00291annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.291%Possible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather6.84event-days per yearabout 6.84 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 20 of 30 years)event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)1302005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202594303.13
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202530301
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202570302.33
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202514300.467
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202513300.433
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202516300.533
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave3 of 345.356.972.2Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 1
Drought3 of 392.799.399.3Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Earthquake3 of 315.116.117.6Very Low 3
Hail3 of 397.699.899.8Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Heat Wave3 of 310.116.127.6Relatively Low 1, Very Low 2
Hurricane3 of 330.443.143.5Very Low 3
Ice Storm3 of 345.662.771.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 2
Inland Flooding3 of 35.110.410.8Very Low 3
Landslide3 of 311.115.623.8Very Low 3
Lightning3 of 324.032.346.0Relatively Low 3
Strong Wind3 of 398.599.299.3Very High 3
Tornado3 of 365.076.689.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire3 of 378.589.189.7Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 1
Winter Weather3 of 367.671.679.3Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 78% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Lynn CountyCountyExpired on 2025-11-01FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$430,957.190 total; 0 since its plan
New Home cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded43 total; 4 since its plan
O'Donnell cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$4,443.8176 total; 17 since its plan
Tahoka cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$797.55116 total; 13 since its plan
Wilson cityCityExpired on 2025-11-01FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded50 total; 6 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2020-11-02county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$2,207$19$182,2490.000129%$0
Droughtn/a$90,324,625n/an/a$1,765,133n/a1.95% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$3,152,357,906n/a5,596$8,462n/a$2,2780.000268%
Hail$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$446,785$1,629,928$24,0390.0261%$0
Heat Wave$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$49$2,984$28,563under 0.0001%
Hurricane$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$1,230$4,879$9under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$1,714,060,410n/a5,543$15,187n/a$3,2960.000886%$4,443.81
Inland Flooding$1,713,668,572$24,1986$503,129$442$159n/a (see note)$0$29,726.53NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$235,552n/a1under $1n/aunder $1under 0.0001%
Lightning$1,714,317,901n/a5,545$3,722n/a$12,5690.000217%
Strong Wind$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$248,079$416,952$195,7140.0145%$0$0$29,726.53
Tornado$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$229,324$2,797$344,1740.0134%$29,726.53
Wildfire$300,236,810$16,630,955972$51,613$348$1,5690.0172%$0
Winter Weather$1,714,317,901$143,441,5425,545$12,197$325$4,3290.000711%$0

Totals since 2020-11-02 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 45 county-coded records, 34 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 43 zone-level records, 42 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $34,170.34 on 3 counted declarations, 2 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population5,545
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,714,317,901
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$143,441,542
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,345,792
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$798,949
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Lynn County4809190000000
New Home city4809200000000
O'Donnell city4809210000000
Tahoka city4804540000000
Wilson city4809220000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Lynn County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48305). Hand-checked on 2026-09-28. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48305/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. This packet was hand-checked against FEMA and NOAA sources on 2026-09-28.