Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Hutchinson County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48233
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-02-06. Plan: Hutchinson County (FEMA plan 108477), approved 2024-02-07.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-02-07: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): FM-5488-TX (Smokehouse Creek Fire), FM-5571-TX (Double S Fire).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 73 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Drought ($5,805,042 a year), Cold Wave ($5,113,126) and Tornado ($3,046,124).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-02-06
Plan:
Hutchinson County (FEMA plan 108477)
Approved:
2024-02-07
Days to expiry:
860

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-02-07)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): FM-5488-TX (Smokehouse Creek Fire), FM-5571-TX (Double S Fire)
Storm Events records since approval:
73 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Hutchinson CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-02-06Hutchinson County (FEMA plan 108477)2024-02-072029-02-06860
Borger cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-06Hutchinson County (FEMA plan 108477)2024-02-072029-02-06860
Fritch cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-06Hutchinson County (FEMA plan 108477)2024-02-072029-02-06860
Stinnett cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-06Hutchinson County (FEMA plan 108477)2024-02-072029-02-06860
Pringle-Morse Consolidated Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2030-12-01Hansford County (FEMA plan 110558)2025-12-022030-12-011,523

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1DroughtRelatively HighRelatively Highn/a$5,805,042n/a$5,805,04261
2Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively High$7,944$123,198$4,981,984$5,113,12618Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$973,559$1,737$2,070,828$3,046,12430
4WildfireRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$2,675,012$1,308$232,846$2,909,16550
5Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,088,152$51,950$7,251$2,147,35329
6HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,430,885$28,083$47,112$1,506,080468
7Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$247,408$891$506,708$755,007282Includes 77 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively High$107,605$462$234,026$342,09460
9LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$11,471n/a$254,208$265,6790No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
10Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$196,370n/a$10,058$206,4275
11Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$120$207$127,440$127,7660No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$82,188n/a$22,345$104,532Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$67n/a$21$880No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14HurricaneNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9509 (Relatively Low, 57.6); tract 9508 (Very Low, 39.8); tract 9502 (Very Low, 38.9)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9505.02 (Very Low, 79.1); tract 9502 (Very Low, 67.0); tract 9510 (Very Low, 49.5)
Tornadotract 9509 (Very High, 99.3); tract 9506 (Very High, 96.5); tract 9510 (Very High, 95.3)
Wildfiretract 9502 (Relatively High, 98.8); tract 9505.02 (Relatively High, 98.6); tract 9505.01 (Relatively High, 98.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9509 is Census Tract 9509). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill16 records, 2007 to 2022 (16 zone-level)1 day to 3 days (median 2 days); 11 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 2014-12-29 to 2014-12-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed). Cold/Wind Chill records from May to September (a frost night, not a cold wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage2 records, 2017 to 2018 (2 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)61 records, 1996 to 2026 (61 zone-level)12 days to 463 days (median 93.5 days); 14 with a recorded value463 days (about 15.2 months), 2021-11-23 to 2023-02-28, a run of 16 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2013-01-01, $0 property; $30,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (2013 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)570 records, 1955 to 20260.75 in to 4 in (median 1 in); 570 with a recorded value4 in hail, 1989-06-10Hail, 1995-05-07, $200,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Borger city (165 records), Stinnett city (125 records), Fritch city (99 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 1998 to 2017 (5 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2017-01-14, $1,200,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars); NWS zone TXZ008Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)29 records, 1997 to 2026Flash Flood, 2004-09-22, $240,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Stinnett city (10 records), Borger city (9 records), Fritch city (6 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)77 records, 1996 to 2026 (77 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 71 kt (82 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 77 with a recorded value71 kt (82 mph), measurement type not recorded, High Wind, 1996-04-13; NWS zone TXZ008High Wind, 2007-02-24, $38,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)231 records, 1959 to 202643 kt (49 mph) to 108 kt (124 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 223 with a recorded value108 kt (124 mph) estimated, Thunderstorm Wind, 2001-04-06Thunderstorm Wind, 2002-07-27, $800,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Borger city (65 records), Stinnett city (52 records), Fritch city (35 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)79 records, 1951 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF0); 75 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1992-06-27, 5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,583 yd wide, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1992 dollars), 7 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Borger city (7 records), Stinnett city (6 records), Fritch city (4 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)50 records, 2006 to 2026 (50 zone-level)Wildfire, 2024-02-26, $10,000,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars); NWS zone TXZ008Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)60 records, 1996 to 2026 (60 zone-level)Blizzard, 2013-02-24, $660,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars); NWS zone TXZ008Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 19 declarations covering 11 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-03-182025-03-18FM-5571-TXFire managementDouble S FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-02-272024-02-27FM-5488-TXFire managementSmokehouse Creek FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$57,605
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2018-04-132018-04-13FM-5233-TXFire managementHarbor Bay FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2014-05-122014-05-11FM-5053-TXFire managementDouble Diamond FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2011-07-012011-04-06DR-1999-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfire$3,018.75
2011-05-292011-05-29FM-2911-TXFire managementReimer FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1999
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$68,183.12
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1992-07-021992-06-27DR-949-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & TornadoesTornadoPA not declared for this county
1989-05-191989-05-04DR-828-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave18001001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought614222001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail570211846001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm5000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding29101101996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind308292588001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 77 High Wind records.
Tornado79506201950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire508014821996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather60517001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-02-27Wildfire$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)1, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-02-26Wildfire$10,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2022-02-03Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported1, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2021-11-23Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2014-12-29Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2014 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2013-02-24Blizzard$660,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2013 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2004-09-22Flash Flood$240,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)0, 0BORGERB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2001-04-06Thunderstorm Wind108 kt (124 mph) estimated$50,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)0, 0BORGERB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1996-04-13High Wind71 kt (82 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ008 (HUTCHINSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1992-06-27TornadoF4, 5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,583 yd wide$25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1992 dollars)0, 7location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1989-06-10Hail4 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1983-06-09TornadoF1, 0.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 17 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)1, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (1,180 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave2.74event-days per yearabout 2.74 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)522005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought94.8event-days per yearabout 94.8 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 13 of 30 years)event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)2,5552000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00095annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.095%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail8.94events per yearabout 8.94 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)339.6 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.63event-days per yearabout 2.63 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)392005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0events per yearnone modeledUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.314event-days per yearabout 0.314 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)221946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.679event-days per yearabout 0.679 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 13 of 30 years)event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)191996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.259events per year (modeled)about 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning47.6days per year with a strikeabout 47.6 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.57events per yearabout 3.57 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1361986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.806events per yearabout 0.81 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.013annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 1.3%Likely (from Storm Events: 17 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather9.95event-days per yearabout 9.95 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 25 of 30 years)event-days in 25 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (83.3%)1892005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025281309.37
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202543301.43
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025172305.73
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202529300.967
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202526300.867
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20253300.1

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave8 of 886.997.999.6Very High 5, Relatively High 3
Drought3 of 880.689.3100.0Very High 1, Relatively Low 2, No Rating 5
Earthquake8 of 817.833.357.6Relatively Low 1, Very Low 7
Hail8 of 891.696.198.9Very High 1, Relatively High 7
Heat Wave8 of 87.827.749.9Relatively Low 5, Very Low 3
Hurricane0 of 8No Rating 8
Ice Storm8 of 879.888.694.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 6
Inland Flooding8 of 82.416.947.2Relatively Low 5, Very Low 3
Landslide8 of 813.734.279.1Very Low 8
Lightning8 of 856.287.697.0Very High 1, Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 3
Strong Wind8 of 879.291.997.8Very High 1, Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 2
Tornado8 of 873.191.999.3Very High 4, Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire8 of 890.097.998.8Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 3
Winter Weather8 of 894.298.399.7Very High 6, Relatively High 2

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Hutchinson CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-02-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$71,201.870 total; 0 since its plan
Borger cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$57,605246 total; 11 since its planIncludes $57,605 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4485-TX).
Fritch cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded144 total; 4 since its plan
Stinnett cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded193 total; 18 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-02-07county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$4,144,522,282$57,836,78420,595$7,944$123,198$4,981,9840.000192%
Droughtn/a$16,745,595n/an/a$5,805,042n/a34.7% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$6,948,437,846n/a20,617$82,188n/a$22,3450.00118%
Hail$4,144,523,172$57,836,78420,595$1,430,885$28,083$47,1120.0345%$22,000
Heat Wave$4,144,522,282$57,836,78420,595$120$207$127,440under 0.0001%
Hurricane$4,144,523,172$57,836,78420,595$0$0$00%
Ice Storm$4,144,522,282n/a20,595$196,370n/a$10,0580.00474%
Inland Flooding$4,143,996,056$5,461,060160$2,088,152$51,950$7,251n/a (see note)$3,000NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$27,470,085n/a127$67n/a$210.000246%
Lightning$4,144,523,172n/a20,595$11,471n/a$254,2080.000277%
Strong Wind$4,144,523,172$57,836,78420,595$247,408$891$506,7080.00597%$22,700$6,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level High Wind record ($6,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$4,144,523,172$57,836,78420,595$973,559$1,737$2,070,8280.0235%$30,000
Wildfire$956,345,348$11,617,2965,269$2,675,012$1,308$232,8460.28%$10,008,200no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)
Winter Weather$4,144,522,282$57,836,78420,595$107,605$462$234,0260.0026%$0

Totals since 2024-02-07 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 43 county-coded records, 37 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $77,700; 30 zone-level records, 21 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $10,014,200 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population20,595
Building value (total, not at risk)$4,144,523,172
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$57,836,784
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$13,833,658
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$8,494,826
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Hutchinson County4803730000000
Borger city4803740000000
Fritch city4808750000000
Stinnett city4803750000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Hutchinson County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48233). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48233/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.