Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Hardin County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48199
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-11-20. Plan: Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439), approved 2022-11-21.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-11-21: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 55 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($11,009,305 a year), Tornado ($5,031,086) and Hurricane ($4,866,314).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 85, SRL 89 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 257.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-11-20
Plan:
Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)
Approved:
2022-11-21
Days to expiry:
416

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-11-21)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4798-TX (Hurricane Beryl)
Storm Events records since approval:
55 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 85, SRL 89 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 257
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Hardin CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-11-20Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)2022-11-212027-11-20416
Kountze cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)2022-11-212027-11-20416
Lumberton cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)2022-11-212027-11-20416
Rose Hill Acres cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)2022-11-212027-11-20416
Silsbee cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)2022-11-212027-11-20416
Sour Lake cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20Hardin County (FEMA plan 107439)2022-11-212027-11-20416
Warren Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2031-08-30Tyler County (FEMA plan 111663)2026-08-312031-08-301,795

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$10,841,127$51$168,127$11,009,30556
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,325,832$207$3,705,047$5,031,08614
3HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$4,612,299$29,430$224,585$4,866,3144
4Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$17,764$4,454$2,271,721$2,293,9391
5LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$12,266n/a$1,109,972$1,122,2382
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$85$18$837,267$837,3713
7Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$264,824n/a$487,818$752,6413
8WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$466,249$117$68,355$534,7215
9Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$214,449$12,719$140,745$367,91282Includes 1 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10HailVery LowVery Low$84,896$68$5,985$90,95069
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$61,523n/a$21,136$82,659Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$73,294n/a$73,2946
13Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$45,547$9$5,282$50,83811
14Coastal FloodingVery LowVery Low$6,630n/a$825$7,4550No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15LandslideVery LowVery Low$83n/a$2$840No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 308 (Very Low, 31.4); tract 307 (Very Low, 31.0); tract 303.01 (Very Low, 26.5)
Hurricanetract 302 (Relatively High, 91.8); tract 308 (Relatively High, 90.9); tract 303.02 (Relatively High, 90.7)
Landslidetract 303.01 (Very Low, 73.4); tract 310 (Very Low, 70.5); tract 307 (Very Low, 66.5)
Tornadotract 303.02 (Very High, 97.7); tract 308 (Very High, 96.7); tract 302 (Very High, 95.8)
Wildfiretract 303.01 (Relatively Moderate, 95.5); tract 302 (Relatively Moderate, 94.3); tract 310 (Relatively Moderate, 94.2)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 308 is Census Tract 308). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)0Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2010 (1 zone-level)4 days; 1 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2010-01-08 to 2010-01-11, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)6 records, 1996 to 2023 (6 zone-level)10 days to 73 days (median 30 days); 4 with a recorded value73 days (about 2.4 months), 1998-05-20 to 1998-07-31, a run of 3 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)91 records, 1957 to 20240.75 in to 3.5 in (median 1 in); 91 with a recorded value3.5 in hail, 2023-04-15Hail, 2013-02-11, $1,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Kountze city (17 records), Lumberton city (7 records), Sour Lake city (7 records), Silsbee city (5 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)3 records, 2000 to 2023 (3 zone-level)8 days to 31 days (median 19.5 days); 2 with a recorded valueAugust 2023 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson4 records, 2005 to 2020 (4 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane (Typhoon) record (NOAA's event type name), 2008-09-12 to 2008-09-13, category 1, $70,000,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars); NWS zone TXZ201Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 1997 to 2021 (3 zone-level)Ice Storm, 1997-01-12, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars); NWS zone TXZ201Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)56 records, 1997 to 2026Flash Flood, 2017-08-27, $600,000,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sour Lake city (9 records), Kountze city (7 records), Silsbee city (7 records), Lumberton city (5 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)2 records, 2008 to 2018Lightning, 2018-02-06, $0 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars), 1 direct death, 1 direct injuryLightning, 2008-11-12, $75,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sour Lake city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)3 records, 1996 to 2012 (3 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 43 kt (49 mph) (median 40 kt (46 mph)); 3 with a recorded value43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust, Strong Wind, 2011-01-09; NWS zone TXZ201Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)117 records, 1961 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 120 kt (138 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 57 with a recorded value120 kt (138 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2019-10-29, 1 direct injuryEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Silsbee city (21 records), Kountze city (18 records), Lumberton city (9 records), Sour Lake city (8 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)27 records, 1964 to 2023F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF0); 27 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 2004-11-23, 3 mi within this county, 600 yd wide, $500,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars), 1 direct deathTornado, 2004-11-23, $100,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (2004 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Lumberton city (3 records), Sour Lake city (3 records), Kountze city (2 records), Silsbee city (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)5 records, 2011 (5 zone-level)Wildfire, 2011-04-16, $100,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone TXZ201Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)11 records, 2007 to 2025 (11 zone-level)Winter Weather, 2011-02-03, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone TXZ201Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 32 declarations covering 24 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-07-092024-07-05DR-4798-TXMajor disasterHurricane BerylHurricaneno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-05-172024-04-26DR-4781-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornado$964,676.08new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$21,803.40
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-08-242020-08-23EM-3540-TXEmergencyTropical Storms Marco and LauraHurricane$148,604.19
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$39,684.44
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2017-08-252017-08-23DR-4332-TXMajor disasterHurricane HarveyHurricane$54,370,079.38
2016-06-112016-05-22DR-4272-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$26,352.18
2015-11-252015-10-22DR-4245-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$218,205.60
2011-09-092011-08-30DR-4029-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfire$10,723.32
2011-07-012011-04-06DR-1999-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfire$75,003.13
2008-09-132008-09-07DR-1791-TXMajor disasterHurricane IkeHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$13,104,227.92
2008-09-102008-09-07EM-3294-TXEmergencyHurricane IkeHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1791
2008-08-292008-08-27EM-3290-TXEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricane$6,099.75
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane$20,838,894.34
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane$90,233.17same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$37,918.65
2003-02-012003-02-01EM-3171-TXEmergencyLoss of the Space Shuttle ColumbiaNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-11-052002-10-24DR-1439-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2001-06-092001-06-05DR-1379-TXMajor disasterTx-Tropical Storm Allison-06-06-2001Hurricane$313,272.43
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1996-02-231996-02-23EM-3117-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1994-10-181994-10-14DR-1041-TXMajor disasterSevere Thunderstorms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1989-07-181989-06-25DR-836-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm AllisonInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Hurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-191989-05-04DR-828-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1979-04-261979-04-26DR-580-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1973-07-111973-07-11DR-398-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought6101001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail9115015001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave3101001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane4000811996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm3000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding56191201111996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind12017017311955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado27101611950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire5000601996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather11101001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-08-01Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2023-04-15Hail3.5 in$0 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)0, 0ARIOLAnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2019-10-29Thunderstorm Wind120 kt (138 mph) estimated gust$3,000,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)0, 1KOUNTZE SILSBEE ARPT to SILSBEEdeaths or injuries recorded
2018-02-06Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)1, 1HONEY ISdeaths or injuries recorded
2017-08-27Flash Flood$600,000,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0LOEB to GRAYBURGB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-04-16Wildfire$100,000 property; $1,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2011-01-09Strong Wind43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust$5,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2010-01-08Cold/Wind Chill$50,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2008-09-12Hurricane (Typhoon), NOAA's event type namecategory 1$70,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2004-11-23TornadoF2, 3 mi within this county, 600 yd wide$500,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)1, 0KOUNTZEdeaths or injuries recorded
1998-05-20Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
1997-01-12Ice Storm$1,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1997 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ201 (HARDIN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (329 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding0.01events per year at a location (modeled)about 0.01 per year at a given location in the countyStorm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Cold Wave0.948event-days per yearabout 0.948 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)182005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought22.9event-days per yearabout 22.9 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)7842000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00067annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.067%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2events per yearabout 2 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)75.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave10.9event-days per yearabout 10.9 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)1932005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.145events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)561851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.762event-days per yearabout 0.762 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)521946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.25event-days per yearabout 1.25 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 18 of 30 years)event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)351996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.105events per year (modeled)about 1 in 10 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning76.6days per year with a strikeabout 76.6 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.03events per yearabout 1.03 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)401986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.717events per yearabout 0.72 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00392annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.392%Possible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather1.32event-days per yearabout 1.32 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 10 of 30 years)event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)252005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202537301.23
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202546301.53
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20253300.1
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202527300.9
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202513300.433
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding5 of 1374.578.383.0Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2, No Rating 8
Cold Wave13 of 1366.081.790.8Relatively High 10, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought6 of 1375.184.093.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1, No Rating 7
Earthquake13 of 1314.822.031.4Very Low 13
Hail13 of 1340.650.658.7Relatively Low 13
Heat Wave13 of 1345.769.082.9Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 3
Hurricane13 of 1384.088.491.8Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 8
Ice Storm13 of 1391.394.696.9Relatively High 13
Inland Flooding13 of 1321.960.195.8Very High 1, Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 3
Landslide13 of 1311.651.273.4Very Low 13
Lightning13 of 1389.297.999.4Very High 10, Relatively High 3
Strong Wind13 of 1350.765.475.4Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 2
Tornado13 of 1377.891.997.7Very High 5, Relatively High 8
Wildfire13 of 1381.088.995.5Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 6
Winter Weather13 of 1344.961.471.9Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Hardin CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-11-20FMA RL 52, SRL 52; any 142$28,830,732.280 total; 0 since its planIncludes $33,488.31 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3216-TX).
Kountze cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$1,535,774.4944 total; 9 since its plan
Lumberton cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20FMA RL 20, SRL 20; any 64$5,013,410.0424 total; 1 since its planIncludes $4,430.34 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3216-TX).
Rose Hill Acres cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20FMA RL 9, SRL 11; any 21$370,211.180 total; 0 since its plan
Silsbee cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20FMA RL 3, SRL 5; any 20$3,358,474.1435 total; 7 since its plan
Sour Lake cityCityApproved, expires 2027-11-20FMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 8$1,030,468.2328 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-11-21county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$450,473,166n/a1,531$6,630n/a$8250.00147%
Cold Wave$11,646,185,588$6,039,54156,129$17,764$4,454$2,271,7210.000153%
Droughtn/a$2,005,182n/an/a$73,294n/a3.66% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$19,203,939,210n/a56,231$61,523n/a$21,1360.00032%
Hail$11,646,185,588$6,039,54156,129$84,896$68$5,9850.000729%$0
Heat Wave$11,646,185,588$6,039,54156,129$85$18$837,267under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$11,644,677,450$6,039,54156,119$4,612,299$29,430$224,5850.0396%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Ice Storm$11,645,008,896n/a56,118$264,824n/a$487,8180.00227%
Inland Flooding$11,640,908,421$549,4833,714$10,841,127$51$168,127n/a (see note)$327,000$964,676.08NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$14,452,885n/a61$83n/a$20.000574%
Lightning$11,646,185,588n/a56,129$12,266n/a$1,109,9720.000105%
Strong Wind$11,646,185,588$6,039,54156,129$214,449$12,719$140,7450.00184%$21,000$964,676.08
Tornado$11,646,185,588$6,039,54156,129$1,325,832$207$3,705,0470.0114%$25,000$964,676.08
Wildfire$1,703,878,431$3,575,08615,784$466,249$117$68,3550.0274%
Winter Weather$11,646,185,588$6,039,54156,129$45,547$9$5,2820.000391%$0

Totals since 2022-11-21 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 52 county-coded records, 52 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $373,000; 3 zone-level records, 3 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $964,676.08 on 2 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population56,129
Building value (total, not at risk)$11,646,185,588
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$6,039,541
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$18,073,941
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$9,046,867
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Moderate
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)85Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)89
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition205Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition50

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total8589205502572184
of which: Hardin County (unincorporated area)5252102221421639
of which: Silsbee city3520520011
of which: Sour Lake city1170812
of which: Kountze city0020200
of which: Rose Hill Acres city9111892123
of which: Lumberton city2020561464229
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Hardin County4802845252102221421639
Kountze city4808450020200
Lumberton city4811112020561464229
Rose Hill Acres city4808469111892123
Silsbee city4802853520520011
Sour Lake city4802861170812

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential8584191462432180
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0111101
non-residential041331303
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 34 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 154 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Hardin County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48199). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48199/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.