Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Guadalupe County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48187
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2026-08-15. Plan: Guadalupe County (FEMA plan 104792), approved 2021-08-16.

Since the plan was approved on 2021-08-16: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4879-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 118 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($100,451,198 a year), Tornado ($10,223,207) and Heat Wave ($3,355,488).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 180, SRL 115 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 441.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2026-08-15
Plan:
Guadalupe County (FEMA plan 104792)
Approved:
2021-08-16
Days since expiry:
46
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2021-08-16)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4781-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4879-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
118 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 180, SRL 115 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 441
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Guadalupe County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedExpired on 2026-08-15Guadalupe County (FEMA plan 104792)2021-08-162026-08-15-46
Cibolo cityCityExpired on 2026-08-15Guadalupe County (FEMA plan 104792)2021-08-162026-08-15-46
Luling cityCityExpired on 2025-07-22Caldwell County (FEMA plan 104784)2020-07-232025-07-22-435
New Braunfels cityCityNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Seguin cityCityExpired on 2026-08-15Guadalupe County (FEMA plan 104792)2021-08-162026-08-15-46
La Vernia Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2030-08-18Wilson County (FEMA plan 110687)2025-08-192030-08-181,418
Nixon-Smiley Consolidated Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2031-05-27Gonzales County (FEMA plan 111732)2026-05-282031-05-271,700
San Marcos Consolidated Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2030-10-06Hays County (FEMA plan 110433)2025-10-072030-10-061,467this jurisdiction approved 2026-02-13
Canyon Regional Water Authority (CRWA)Water/Sewer AuthorityExpired on 2024-05-07Canyon Regional Water Authority (FEMA plan 105666)2019-05-082024-05-07-876
Green Valley Special Utility DistrictElectric/Power AuthorityExpired on 2024-07-10Green Valley Special Utility District (FEMA plan 105483)2019-07-112024-07-10-812
Guadalupe-Blanco River AuthorityWater/Sewer AuthorityApproved, expires 2031-03-10Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority (FEMA plan 110282)2026-03-112031-03-101,622

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively HighRelatively High$34,646,973$168,710$65,635,515$100,451,198104
2TornadoRelatively HighRelatively High$2,399,132$1,899$7,822,176$10,223,20712
3Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$204$273$3,355,011$3,355,48810
4Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$21,074$38,815$2,577,220$2,637,1107
5HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,933,584$227,043$293,796$2,454,42379
6LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$29,054n/a$1,368,049$1,397,1032
7DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$1,000,688n/a$1,000,68881
8Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$486,767$10,441$404,213$901,42190Includes 1 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
9HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$350,744$135,147$22,626$508,5161
10Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively High$76,143$1,094$240,819$318,05726
11WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$252,535$344$57,254$310,1322
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$8,405n/a$95,498$103,9030Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$27,297n/a$8,447$35,744Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$254n/a$3$2570No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 2104 (Very Low, 16.1); tract 2102 (Very Low, 10.2); tract 2103 (Very Low, 10.0)
Hurricanetract 2105.06 (Relatively Low, 63.4); tract 2108.03 (Relatively Low, 63.4); tract 2109.02 (Relatively Low, 63.1)
Landslidetract 2105.06 (Very Low, 78.9); tract 2108.04 (Very Low, 75.6); tract 2109.05 (Very Low, 73.9)
Tornadotract 2105.05 (Relatively High, 93.0); tract 2109.02 (Relatively High, 92.7); tract 2104 (Relatively High, 91.2)
Wildfiretract 2108.03 (Relatively Moderate, 91.0); tract 2109.02 (Relatively Moderate, 89.6); tract 2108.04 (Relatively Moderate, 89.1)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 2104 is Census Tract 2104). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill7 records, 2021 to 2026 (7 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 1.5 days); 4 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2024-01-14 to 2024-01-17, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)81 records, 1996 to 2026 (81 zone-level)28 days to 421 days (median 92 days); 17 with a recorded value421 days (about 13.8 months), 2022-03-01 to 2023-04-25, a run of 14 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)112 records, 1955 to 20250.75 in to 4 in (median 1 in); 110 with a recorded value4 in hail, 1991-05-03Hail, 1994-03-27, $5,000,000 property; $50,000 crops (1994 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Seguin city (19 records), New Braunfels city (6 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)10 records, 2010 to 2024 (10 zone-level)1 day to 28 days (median 2 days); 10 with a recorded valueAugust 2023 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson1 record, 2017 (1 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2017-08-26 to 2017-08-27, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars); NWS zone TXZ207Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)0Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)104 records, 1997 to 2026 (5 zone-level)Flood, 1998-10-17, $30,000,000 property; $50,000 crops (1998 dollars), 50 direct injuries (reported for the zone); NWS zone TXZ207Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Seguin city (15 records), Cibolo city (6 records). Zone-level records (5) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)2 records, 2009 to 2015Lightning, 2009-07-18, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)3 records, 2008 to 2022 (3 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 51 kt (59 mph) (median 49 kt (56 mph)); 3 with a recorded value51 kt (59 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2013-02-25; NWS zone TXZ207Strong Wind, 2008-01-31, $5,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)130 records, 1960 to 202643 kt (49 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 81 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2020-05-24; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2004-05-31, 2007-04-25, 2020-01-10Thunderstorm Wind, 1994-03-27, $5,000,000 property; $50,000 crops (1994 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Seguin city (18 records), New Braunfels city (5 records), Cibolo city (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)26 records, 1953 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 24 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1953-12-01, 5.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,760 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars), 10 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Seguin city (4 records), New Braunfels city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)2 records, 2022 to 2023 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)26 records, 1996 to 2026 (26 zone-level)No damage reported in 26 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 23 declarations covering 16 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-07-062025-07-02DR-4879-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong WindPA not declared for this countynew since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-05-172024-04-26DR-4781-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$206,978.24in the 12 months before plan approval
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approvalsame incident as DR-4586
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$3,267,392.45
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2017-08-252017-08-23DR-4332-TXMajor disasterHurricane HarveyHurricane$681,988.13
2015-11-252015-10-22DR-4245-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$113,205.60
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2010-06-292010-06-27EM-3313-TXEmergencyTropical Storm AlexHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-06-292007-06-16DR-1709-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$18,928.49
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$10,773.79
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$3,389.34same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$1,950.16
2002-07-042002-06-29DR-1425-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,235,259.63
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-10-211998-10-17DR-1257-TXMajor disasterTx-Flooding 10/18/98Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado$2,952,620.23
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1997-07-071997-06-21DR-1179-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-09-101993-08-30EM-3113-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardDrought (primary); also designated: Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1972-05-201972-05-20DR-333-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave7616001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought8141341101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail11220620001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave10606001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane1000201996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Inland Flooding104707921996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind13323322421955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado26303511950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire2202401996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather2610410001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-01-14Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ207 (GUADALUPE), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2023-08-01Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ207 (GUADALUPE), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2022-03-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ207 (GUADALUPE), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2020-05-24Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$1,000 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars)0, 0SEGUINB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2017-03-10Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)1, 0MARIONdeaths or injuries recorded
2013-02-25High Wind51 kt (59 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2013 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ207 (GUADALUPE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2009-07-18Lightning$100,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0CIBOLO KARDYS ARPTB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2001-11-15Flash Flood$80,000 property; $0 crops (2001 dollars)1, 5COUNTYWIDEdeaths or injuries recorded
1998-10-17Flood$30,000,000 property; $50,000 crops, reported for the zone (1998 dollars)0, 50NWS zone TXZ207 (GUADALUPE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1998-10-17Flash Flood$5,000,000 property; $100,000 crops (1998 dollars)4, 500COUNTYWIDEdeaths or injuries recorded
1991-05-03Hail4 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1953-12-01TornadoF3, 5.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,760 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars)0, 10location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (504 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.526event-days per yearabout 0.526 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)102005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought74.6event-days per yearabout 74.6 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)2,7512000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000373annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0373%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.04events per yearabout 3.04 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)115.4 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave10.6event-days per yearabout 10.6 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)1742005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0558events per yearabout 1 in 18 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)181851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.305event-days per yearabout 0.305 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)211946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywideNo Storm Events ice storm record, 1996 to 2025
Inland Flooding2.89event-days per yearabout 2.89 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 20 of 30 years)event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)811996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0788events per year (modeled)about 1 in 13 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning48.5days per year with a strikeabout 48.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.23events per yearabout 1.23 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)471986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.308events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0012annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.12%Possible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather2.58event-days per yearabout 2.58 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 17 of 30 years)event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)492005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202540301.33
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202564302.13
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20257300.233
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202515300.5
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20258300.267
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave41 of 4132.953.269.9Relatively Moderate 30, Relatively Low 11
Drought33 of 4172.186.097.4Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 14, Very Low 10, No Rating 8
Earthquake41 of 410.54.616.1Very Low 41
Hail41 of 4173.384.892.4Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 36
Heat Wave41 of 4139.869.885.9Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 36, Relatively Low 3
Hurricane41 of 4145.851.763.4Relatively Low 22, Very Low 19
Ice Storm41 of 4110.429.761.5Relatively Low 14, Very Low 27
Inland Flooding41 of 4114.681.5100.0Very High 13, Relatively High 11, Relatively Moderate 13, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Landslide41 of 4111.535.778.9Very Low 41
Lightning41 of 4151.780.194.1Relatively High 22, Relatively Moderate 19
Strong Wind41 of 4137.456.075.0Relatively Moderate 22, Relatively Low 19
Tornado41 of 4159.176.893.0Relatively High 25, Relatively Moderate 16
Wildfire41 of 4138.378.991.0Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 28, Very Low 10
Winter Weather41 of 4155.272.686.4Relatively High 14, Relatively Moderate 27

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Guadalupe County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedExpired on 2026-08-15FMA RL 128, SRL 84; any 302$1,805,613.600 total; 0 since its planIncludes $2,867.62 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX).
Cibolo cityCityExpired on 2026-08-15FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 1$18,545.438 total; 1 since its plan
Luling cityCityExpired on 2025-07-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
New Braunfels cityCityNo approved plan on recordFMA RL 72, SRL 38; any 140no Public Assistance recorded12 total; no approved planWhole community, including the part in Comal County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 7, FMA SRL 2, NFIP RL 34, NFIP SRL 2, any category 35.
Seguin cityCityExpired on 2026-08-15FMA RL 43, SRL 27; any 99$2,411,883.5056 total; 9 since its planIncludes $13,245.67 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, EM-3216-TX, EM-3261-TX).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2021-08-16county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$28,508,813,906$94,754,982172,522$21,074$38,815$2,577,220under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$21,956,376n/an/a$1,000,688n/a4.56% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$48,198,549,500n/a172,706$27,297n/a$8,447under 0.0001%
Hail$28,508,813,906$94,754,982172,522$1,933,584$227,043$293,7960.00678%$0
Heat Wave$28,508,813,906$94,754,982172,522$204$273$3,355,011under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$28,503,127,114$93,299,938172,482$350,744$135,147$22,6260.00123%
Ice Storm$28,506,905,766n/a172,507$8,405n/a$95,498under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$28,485,350,704$12,961,45411,257$34,646,973$168,710$65,635,515n/a (see note)$2,500,000no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$59,077,594n/a327$254n/a$30.00043%
Lightning$28,508,813,906n/a172,522$29,054n/a$1,368,0490.000102%
Strong Wind$28,508,813,906$94,754,982172,522$486,767$10,441$404,2130.00171%$60,000no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)
Tornado$28,508,813,906$94,754,982172,522$2,399,132$1,899$7,822,1760.00842%$20,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$3,914,149,203$36,834,89642,864$252,535$344$57,2540.00645%$0
Winter Weather$28,508,813,906$94,754,982172,522$76,143$1,094$240,8190.000267%$0

Totals since 2021-08-16 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 52 county-coded records, 52 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $2,580,000; 66 zone-level records, 65 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population172,522
Building value (total, not at risk)$28,508,813,906
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$94,754,982
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$41,816,620
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$81,880,628
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)180Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)115
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition371Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition66

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total1801153716644167246
of which: Santa Clara city (community ID not in plan data)0100111
of which: Guadalupe County (unincorporated area)128842484630252137
of which: Cibolo city1010100
of which: Marion city (community ID not in plan data)1111100
of which: Staples city (community ID not in plan data)0010101
of which: New Braunfels city7234235134
of which: Port Aransas city (plan jurisdiction listed on the Nueces County page)0010100
of which: Seguin city43278517991373
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

1 of the county's repeat-flood properties belong to NFIP communities whose plan jurisdiction is not listed on this page (the community rows above name the page that lists it).

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Guadalupe County (unincorporated area)480266128842484630252137
Cibolo city4802671010100
Luling city4800960000000
New Braunfels city4854937238116191401494Whole community, including the part in Comal County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 7, FMA SRL 2, NFIP RL 34, NFIP SRL 2, any category 35.
Seguin city48550843278517991373

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential1781133636443367245
2 to 4 unit residential1010100
other residential0010100
non-residential1262601
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 61 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 252 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Guadalupe County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48187). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48187/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.