Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Atascosa County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48013
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2026-02-02. Plan: Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806), approved 2021-02-03.

Since the plan was approved on 2021-02-03: 4 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): EM-3554-TX (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms), FM-5553-TX (Duke Fire), EM-3649-TX (Flooding).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 81 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($5,997,685 a year), Tornado ($2,784,502) and Drought ($1,269,480).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2026-02-02
Plan:
Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)
Approved:
2021-02-03
Days since expiry:
240
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2021-02-03)

New federal declarations:
4 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): EM-3554-TX (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4586-TX (Severe Winter Storms), FM-5553-TX (Duke Fire), EM-3649-TX (Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
81 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Atascosa CountyCountyExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Charlotte cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Christine townTownExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Jourdanton cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Lytle cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Pleasanton cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Poteet cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Name not given in FEMA data (ID R06_205317)School/School DistrictExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
Name not given in FEMA data (ID R06_205318)School/School DistrictExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240
McCoy Water Supply CorporationWater/Sewer AuthorityExpired on 2026-02-02Atascosa and McMullen Counties (FEMA plan 104806)2021-02-032026-02-02-240

Plan 104806 lists 2 other participants: McCoy Water Supply Corporation (McMullen County); McMullen County.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$5,494,466$66,978$436,240$5,997,68578
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$562,316$1,636$2,220,550$2,784,5023
3DroughtRelatively HighRelatively Moderaten/a$1,269,480n/a$1,269,48075
4Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$66$289$994,439$994,7949
5HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$586,165$201,635$145,772$933,57276
6Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$4,732$31,343$498,895$534,9692
7LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$11,681n/a$448,213$459,8941
8Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$187,260$9,804$172,111$369,17545Includes 1 High Wind record (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
9HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$123,085$147,576$6,889$277,5501
10WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$130,366$748$34,999$166,1136
11Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$6,180$624$43,107$49,9119
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,684n/a$25,712$28,3961
13EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$11,602n/a$3,694$15,295Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$12n/aunder $1$130No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9601.02 (Very Low, 12.4); tract 9604.03 (Very Low, 11.5); tract 9603 (Very Low, 10.3)
Hurricanetract 9601.02 (Relatively Low, 76.6); tract 9605 (Relatively Low, 72.0); tract 9606.02 (Relatively Low, 67.2)
Landslidetract 9601.02 (Very Low, 63.2); tract 9605 (Very Low, 47.7); tract 9602.06 (Very Low, 42.0)
Tornadotract 9602.06 (Relatively High, 92.3); tract 9604.03 (Relatively High, 91.2); tract 9601.02 (Relatively High, 90.7)
Wildfiretract 9601.02 (Relatively Moderate, 91.5); tract 9605 (Relatively Moderate, 91.0); tract 9606.02 (Relatively Moderate, 90.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9601.02 is Census Tract 9601.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill2 records, 2021 to 2022 (2 zone-level)1 day; 2 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2022-12-23, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)75 records, 1996 to 2026 (75 zone-level)6 days to 596 days (median 76 days); 16 with a recorded value596 days (about 19.6 months), 2024-10-15 to 2026-06-02, a run of 21 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 1997-05-01, $2,000,000 property; $6,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (1997 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)110 records, 1968 to 20260.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 110 with a recorded value3 in hail, 2025-04-30; same size also recorded on 2023-03-01Hail, 2002-04-07, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Jourdanton city (13 records), Poteet city (10 records), Charlotte city (8 records), Pleasanton city (8 records), Lytle city (5 records), Christine town (3 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)9 records, 2018 to 2025 (9 zone-level)1 day to 24 days (median 3 days); 9 with a recorded valueAugust 2023 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson1 record, 2003 (1 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2003-07-15, $700,000 property; $100,000 crops (2003 dollars), 1 direct death (reported for the zone); NWS zone TXZ220Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2026 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)78 records, 1996 to 2026Flash Flood, 2002-04-07, $50,000 property; $200,000 crops (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Lytle city (7 records), Pleasanton city (5 records), Charlotte city (4 records), Jourdanton city (3 records), Christine town (1 record), Poteet city (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2008Lightning, 2008-07-08, $150,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)1 record, 2009 (1 zone-level)50 kt (58 mph); 1 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2009-04-30; NWS zone TXZ220Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)76 records, 1963 to 202639 kt (45 mph) to 71 kt (82 mph) (median 55.5 kt (64 mph)); 34 with a recorded value71 kt (82 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-05-18Thunderstorm Wind, 2002-03-19, $500,000 property; $100,000 crops (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Poteet city (11 records), Lytle city (7 records), Charlotte city (6 records), Pleasanton city (5 records), Christine town (4 records), Jourdanton city (4 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)16 records, 1968 to 2003F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF0); 16 with a recorded valueF1 tornado, 1972-05-06, 13.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $2,500 property; crops not recorded (1972 dollars), 1 direct injuryTornado, 1980-05-15, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1980 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Jourdanton city (1 record), Lytle city (1 record), Pleasanton city (1 record), Poteet city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)6 records, 2011 to 2023 (6 zone-level)Wildfire, 2019-03-14, $150,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars); NWS zone TXZ220Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)9 records, 1997 to 2025 (9 zone-level)No damage reported in 9 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 14 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-07-182026-07-12EM-3649-TXEmergencyFloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornadonot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-03-052025-03-04FM-5553-TXFire managementDuke FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$40,916.16new since last plan
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4586
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$379,730.70in the 12 months before plan approval
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approvalsame incident as DR-4485
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2010-06-292010-06-27EM-3313-TXEmergencyTropical Storm AlexHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-06-292007-06-16DR-1709-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$322,951.96
2007-05-012007-04-21DR-1697-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and TornadoesTornadoPA not declared for this county
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$90,138.40
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-07-172003-07-15DR-1479-TXMajor disasterHurricane ClaudetteHurricane$381,677.93
2002-07-042002-06-29DR-1425-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$829,472.61
1998-10-211998-10-17DR-1257-TXMajor disasterTx-Flooding 10/18/98Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: TornadoPA not declared for this county
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1993-09-101993-08-30EM-3113-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardDrought (primary); also designated: Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1967-09-281967-09-28DR-232-TXMajor disasterHurricane BeulahHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave2201001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought7538238101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail11020018001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave9717001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane1000301996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm1101111996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding78505611996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind77423211955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind record.
Tornado16000511950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire6202411996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather9221001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-04-30Hail3 in$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)0, 0JOURDANTONnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2024-10-15Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ220 (ATASCOSA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2023-08-04Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ220 (ATASCOSA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2022-12-23Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ220 (ATASCOSA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2019-03-14Wildfire$150,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ220 (ATASCOSA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2009-04-30High Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$20,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2009 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ220 (ATASCOSA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2008-07-08Lightning$150,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)0, 0VERDIB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2003-07-15Tropical Storm$700,000 property; $100,000 crops, reported for the zone (2003 dollars)1, 0NWS zone TXZ220 (ATASCOSA), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2002-04-07Flash Flood$50,000 property; $200,000 crops (2002 dollars)0, 0NORTH PORTIONB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1996-08-20Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$30,000 property; $0 crops (1996 dollars)0, 1CAMPBELLTONdeaths or injuries recorded
1995-05-18Thunderstorm Wind71 kt (82 mph), measurement type not recorded$40,000 property; $5,000 crops (1995 dollars)0, 0PleasantonB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1972-05-06TornadoF1, 13.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide$2,500 property; crops not recorded (1972 dollars)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (385 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.421event-days per yearabout 0.421 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)82005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought82.1event-days per yearabout 82.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 12 of 30 years)event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)3,0242000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000183annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0183%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.1events per yearabout 2.1 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)79.6 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave11.1event-days per yearabout 11.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)1862005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.058events per yearabout 1 in 17 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)221851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.156event-days per yearabout 0.156 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)111946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywideNo Storm Events ice storm record, 1996 to 2025
Inland Flooding2.57event-days per yearabout 2.57 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 20 of 30 years)event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)721996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.109events per year (modeled)about 1 in 9 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning43.4days per year with a strikeabout 43.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.76events per yearabout 0.76 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)291986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.375events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00273annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.273%Likely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather1.63event-days per yearabout 1.63 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 8 of 30 years)event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)312005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202545301.5
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20257300.233
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202522300.733
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202517300.567
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave13 of 1338.752.664.9Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 4
Drought13 of 1374.195.998.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Earthquake13 of 136.17.612.4Very Low 13
Hail13 of 1384.189.896.1Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 4
Heat Wave13 of 1362.979.689.6Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 10
Hurricane13 of 1350.057.976.6Relatively Low 12, Very Low 1
Ice Storm13 of 1314.734.053.6Relatively Low 8, Very Low 5
Inland Flooding13 of 139.848.883.2Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 5, Very Low 1
Landslide13 of 1314.928.263.2Very Low 13
Lightning13 of 1373.691.097.2Very High 2, Relatively High 10, Relatively Moderate 1
Strong Wind13 of 1357.672.083.9Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 12
Tornado13 of 1368.683.292.3Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire13 of 1373.585.991.5Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 9
Winter Weather13 of 1353.167.077.8Relatively Moderate 13

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Atascosa CountyCountyExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 1$872,400.120 total; 0 since its plan
Charlotte cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$13,465.1018 total; 3 since its plan
Christine townTownExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$75,610.598 total; 0 since its plan
Jourdanton cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$43,800.2721 total; 4 since its plan
Lytle cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$13,215.9620 total; 2 since its plan
Pleasanton cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$259,683.7919 total; 1 since its plan
Poteet cityCityExpired on 2026-02-02FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$25,35023 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2021-02-03county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$8,786,976,750$95,641,14348,813$4,732$31,343$498,895under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$18,044,482n/an/a$1,269,480n/a7.04% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$15,731,795,897n/a48,981$11,602n/a$3,694under 0.0001%
Hail$8,786,976,750$95,641,14348,813$586,165$201,635$145,7720.00667%$500
Heat Wave$8,786,976,750$95,641,14348,813$66$289$994,439under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$8,786,864,838$95,310,31948,811$123,085$147,576$6,8890.0014%
Ice Storm$8,786,976,750n/a48,813$2,684n/a$25,712under 0.0001%$0$40,916.16
Inland Flooding$8,784,802,319$7,232,4292,548$5,494,466$66,978$436,240n/a (see note)$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$2,034,274n/a12$12n/aunder $10.000596%
Lightning$8,786,976,750n/a48,813$11,681n/a$448,2130.000133%
Strong Wind$8,786,976,750$95,641,14348,813$187,260$9,804$172,1110.00213%$1,200no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Tornado$8,786,976,750$95,641,14348,813$562,316$1,636$2,220,5500.0064%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$827,122,976$37,589,74214,215$130,366$748$34,9990.0158%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Winter Weather$8,786,976,750$95,641,14348,813$6,180$624$43,107under 0.0001%$0

Totals since 2021-02-03 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 29 county-coded records, 29 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $1,700; 52 zone-level records, 52 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $40,916.16 on 4 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population48,813
Building value (total, not at risk)$8,786,976,750
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$95,641,143
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$8,850,725
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$5,030,622
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0111101
of which: Atascosa County (unincorporated area)0111101
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Atascosa County4800140111101
Charlotte city4807010000000
Christine town4807020000000
Jourdanton city4807030000000
Lytle city4806920000000
Pleasanton city4800150000000
Poteet city4800160000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0111101
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Atascosa County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48013). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48013/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.