Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Aransas County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48007
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-07-09. Plan: Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794), approved 2025-07-10.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-07-10: no new federal declaration.

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 20 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hurricane ($6,514,779 a year), Inland Flooding ($4,684,173) and Cold Wave ($1,511,591).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 14, SRL 13 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 117.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-07-09
Plan:
Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794)
Approved:
2025-07-10
Days to expiry:
1,378

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-07-10)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
20 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 14, SRL 13 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 117
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Aransas CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-07-09Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794)2025-07-102030-07-091,378
Aransas Pass cityCityApproved, expires 2031-03-30San Patricio County (FEMA plan 110050)2026-03-312031-03-301,642
Fulton townTownApproved, expires 2030-07-09Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794)2025-07-102030-07-091,378
Rockport cityCityApproved, expires 2030-07-09Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794)2025-07-102030-07-091,378
Aransas County Navigation DistrictNatural ResourcesApproved, expires 2030-07-09Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794)2025-07-102030-07-091,378
Rockport - Fulton ISDSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2030-07-09Aransas County (FEMA plan 110794)2025-07-102030-07-091,378

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$6,119,119$15,251$380,409$6,514,7797
2Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$4,416,233$1,542$266,398$4,684,17367
3Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$15,606$4,864$1,491,121$1,511,59115Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$299,535$60$857,057$1,156,65210
5Coastal FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$594,325n/a$53,092$647,41712
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$33$6$379,340$379,37947
7Strong WindRelatively LowVery Low$78,122$242$27,274$105,63734Includes 4 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8LightningRelatively LowVery Low$6,336n/a$72,321$78,6572
9WildfireVery LowVery Low$59,560$74$6,326$65,9607
10HailVery LowVery Low$28,386$259$20,693$49,33718
11Ice StormRelatively LowVery Low$2,015n/a$19,549$21,5642
12Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$831$1$9,140$9,9723Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
13EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$4,608n/a$1,122$5,730Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
14DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$1,108n/a$1,10880
15LandslideVery LowVery Low$1n/aunder $1$10No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9503.01 (Very Low, 9.2); tract 9503.02 (Very Low, 7.1); tract 9501.01 (Very Low, 5.0)
Hurricanetract 9501.02 (Relatively High, 96.4); tract 9503.02 (Relatively High, 95.6); tract 9503.01 (Relatively High, 95.5)
Landslidetract 9501.01 (Very Low, 37.1); tract 9501.02 (Very Low, 33.5); tract 9505.01 (Very Low, 23.6)
Tornadotract 9501.02 (Relatively High, 78.5); tract 9503.01 (Relatively High, 77.7); tract 9503.02 (Relatively Moderate, 74.0)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 9505.01 (Relatively Moderate, 89.8); tract 9501.01 (Relatively Moderate, 89.3); tract 9505.02 (Relatively Low, 84.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9503.01 is Census Tract 9503.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)12 records, 1996 to 2021 (11 zone-level)Storm Surge/Tide, 2017-08-25, $200,000,000 property; crops not reported (2017 dollars); NWS zone TXZ245No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (11) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill10 records, 2021 to 2026 (10 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 4 days); 6 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2021-02-14 to 2021-02-18, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage5 records, 2010 to 2026 (5 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 5 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)80 records, 2006 to 2026 (80 zone-level)4 days to 593 days (median 46 days); 19 with a recorded value593 days (about 19.5 months), 2008-05-01 to 2009-12-14, a run of 20 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)21 records, 1986 to 20190.75 in to 2.5 in (median 1 in); 21 with a recorded value2.5 in hail, 2017-06-05Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rockport city (14 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)47 records, 2010 to 2024 (47 zone-level)1 day to 6 days (median 1 day); 26 with a recorded value6 consecutive days, 2023-08-11 to 2023-08-16, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson7 records, 2003 to 2023 (7 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane (Typhoon) record (NOAA's event type name), 2017-08-25 to 2017-08-26, category 4, $1,750,000,000 property; crops not reported (2017 dollars), 14 direct injuries (reported for the zone); NWS zone TXZ245Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)2 records, 2011 to 2021 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)67 records, 1997 to 2026Flash Flood, 2006-07-05, $1,500,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rockport city (44 records), Fulton town (7 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)2 records, 2012 to 2013Lightning, 2013-04-25, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)4 records, 2004 to 2026 (4 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 53 kt (61 mph) (median 45 kt (52 mph)); 4 with a recorded value53 kt (61 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2006-05-30; NWS zone TXZ245Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)41 records, 1956 to 202648 kt (55 mph) to 78 kt (90 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 37 with a recorded value78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2011-01-09Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rockport city (20 records), Fulton town (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)15 records, 1967 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF0); 15 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1967-09-20, 1.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1967 dollars), 3 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rockport city (6 records), Fulton town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)7 records, 2008 to 2025 (7 zone-level)Wildfire, 2009-04-05, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2009 dollars); NWS zone TXZ245Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)3 records, 2004 to 2025 (3 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 31 declarations covering 23 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-07-092024-07-05DR-4798-TXMajor disasterHurricane BerylHurricane$140,884.15within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$106,693.51
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-08-242020-08-23EM-3540-TXEmergencyTropical Storms Marco and LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-07-262020-07-25EM-3530-TXEmergencyHurricane HannaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$102,914.13
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2017-08-252017-08-23DR-4332-TXMajor disasterHurricane HarveyHurricane$78,831,480.18
2010-06-292010-06-27EM-3313-TXEmergencyTropical Storm AlexHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2009-04-052009-04-05FM-2803-TXFire managementHoliday Beach FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2008-09-132008-09-07DR-1791-TXMajor disasterHurricane IkeHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$266,726.07
2008-09-102008-09-07EM-3294-TXEmergencyHurricane IkeHurricane$0same incident as DR-1791
2008-08-292008-08-27EM-3290-TXEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-07-242008-07-22DR-1780-TXMajor disasterHurricane DollyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-08-182007-08-17EM-3277-TXEmergencyHurricane DeanHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$31,380.29
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$48,149.32same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-07-172003-07-15DR-1479-TXMajor disasterHurricane ClaudetteHurricanePA not declared for this county
2002-11-052002-10-24DR-1439-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1999-08-221999-08-21DR-1287-TXMajor disasterHurricane BretHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$52,948.94
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1991-12-261991-12-20DR-930-TXMajor disasterSevere ThunderstormsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1980-08-111980-08-11DR-627-TXMajor disasterHurricane AllenHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1979-09-251979-09-25DR-603-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1971-09-181971-09-18DR-313-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, High Winds & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1970-08-041970-08-04DR-292-TXMajor disasterHurricane CeliaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1968-07-051968-07-05DR-246-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1967-09-281967-09-28DR-232-TXMajor disasterHurricane BeulahHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $14,958,376.65 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding12000001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave154613001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 5 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought806220001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail21000001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4701346001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane70011401996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm2000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding677113901996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind45306201955 to 2026-06-30Includes 4 High Wind records.
Tornado15002101950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire7011301996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather3011001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-08-11Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ245 (COASTAL ARANSAS COUNTY), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2021-02-14Cold/Wind Chill$100,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ245 (COASTAL ARANSAS COUNTY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2017-08-25Storm Surge/Tide$200,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ245 (ARANSAS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tide
2017-08-25Hurricane (Typhoon), NOAA's event type namecategory 4$1,750,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)0, 14NWS zone TXZ245 (ARANSAS), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2017-06-05Hail2.5 in$250,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0HOLIDAY BEACHB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2013-04-25Lightning$10,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)0, 0ROCKPORT ARK CO ARPTB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2011-01-09Thunderstorm Wind78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust$400,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars)0, 0ROCKPORTB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2009-04-05Wildfire$200,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2009 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ245 (ARANSAS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2008-05-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ245 (ARANSAS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2006-07-05Flash Flood$1,500,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 0ROCKPORTB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2006-05-30High Wind53 kt (61 mph) measured gust$50,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2006 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ245 (ARANSAS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1967-09-20TornadoF3, 1.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1967 dollars)0, 3location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (323 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding3.69events per year at a location (modeled)about 3.7 per year at a given location in the countyHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from NRI: the rate at a location is 1 or more a year, so the county rate is at least that.
Cold Wave2.1event-days per yearabout 2.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)23.42005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought43.9event-days per yearabout 43.9 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)1,2182000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000306annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0306%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.884events per yearabout 0.88 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)41.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave7.66event-days per yearabout 7.66 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)71.42005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.141events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)501851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.298event-days per yearabout 0.298 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)181946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.61event-days per yearabout 1.61 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 24 of 30 years)event-days in 24 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (80%)451996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0211events per year (modeled)about 1 in 47 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning46.9days per year with a strikeabout 46.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.74events per yearabout 0.74 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)251986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.187events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.0047annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.47%Likely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather0.644event-days per yearabout 0.644 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)7.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202511300.367
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202522300.733
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20259300.3
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding10 of 1074.193.897.1Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Cold Wave10 of 1053.084.690.2Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 4
Drought5 of 1067.268.479.2Relatively Low 1, Very Low 4, No Rating 5
Earthquake10 of 101.24.49.2Very Low 10
Hail10 of 1034.948.757.2Relatively Low 9, Very Low 1
Heat Wave10 of 1027.061.872.1Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 4
Hurricane10 of 1088.093.996.4Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 1
Ice Storm10 of 1016.837.846.5Relatively Low 6, Very Low 4
Inland Flooding10 of 1022.754.270.3Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 4
Landslide6 of 1017.422.037.1Very Low 6, No Rating 4
Lightning10 of 1026.049.059.4Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 5
Strong Wind10 of 1026.144.058.9Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 8
Tornado10 of 1051.469.378.5Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 1
Tsunami0 of 10Insufficient Data 10
Wildfire10 of 1029.274.189.8Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 5
Winter Weather10 of 1022.438.044.9Relatively Low 10

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Aransas CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-07-09FMA RL 5, SRL 5; any 57$52,848,911.350 total; 0 since its planIncludes $79,529.61 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, EM-3261-TX).
Aransas Pass cityCityApproved, expires 2031-03-30FMA RL 12, SRL 14; any 64no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planWhole community, including the part in Hidalgo County, Nueces County and San Patricio County, plus 1 property with no county in FEMA's file; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 2, FMA SRL 2, NFIP RL 7, NFIP SRL 2, any category 7.
Fulton townTownApproved, expires 2030-07-09FMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 6$4,701,603.8110 total; 0 since its plan
Rockport cityCityApproved, expires 2030-07-09FMA RL 6, SRL 5; any 47$5,526,841.6784 total; 6 since its planIncludes $102,914.13 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4485-TX).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-07-10county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$1,864,952,345n/a5,856$594,325n/a$53,0920.0319%
Cold Wave$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$15,606$4,864$1,491,1210.00027%
Droughtn/a$61,377n/an/a$1,108n/a1.81% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$9,867,635,918n/a23,830$4,608n/a$1,122under 0.0001%
Hail$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$28,386$259$20,6930.000492%
Heat Wave$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$33$6$379,340under 0.0001%
Hurricane$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$6,119,119$15,251$380,4090.106%
Ice Storm$5,771,307,450n/a23,703$2,015n/a$19,549under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$5,716,633,641$65,9262,489$4,416,233$1,542$266,398n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,170,421n/a4$1n/aunder $10.000102%
Lightning$5,771,307,450n/a23,703$6,336n/a$72,3210.00011%
Strong Wind$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$78,122$242$27,2740.00135%
Tornado$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$299,535$60$857,0570.00519%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$607,626,857$1,755,7473,691$59,560$74$6,3260.0098%
Winter Weather$5,771,307,450$2,495,17623,703$831$1$9,140under 0.0001%

Totals since 2025-07-10 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 9 county-coded records, 7 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 11 zone-level records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population23,703
Building value (total, not at risk)$5,771,307,450
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$2,495,176
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$11,648,114
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$3,583,843
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)14Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)13
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition113Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition12

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total141311312117036
of which: Fulton town1161602
of which: Aransas County (unincorporated area)5556557016
of which: Aransas Pass city2272702
of which: Rockport city6544447016
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Aransas County4854525556557016
Aransas Pass city4854531214581364118Whole community, including the part in Hidalgo County, Nueces County and San Patricio County, plus 1 property with no county in FEMA's file; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 2, FMA SRL 2, NFIP RL 7, NFIP SRL 2, any category 7.
Fulton town4800121161602
Rockport city4855046544447016

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential12880784025
2 to 4 unit residential0010100
other residential2393904
non-residential022322307
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 3 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 102 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Aransas County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48007). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48007/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.