Summary
Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No county-level plan row in FEMA data.
Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,197,754 a year), Strong Wind ($1,747,981) and Tornado ($1,328,278).
The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.
Plan clock
No county-level plan row in FEMA data
What changed since your last plan
Not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.
Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)
Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county
Source: 1
| Jurisdiction | Type | Status | Plan | Approved | Expires | Days to expirynegative = days since expiry | Update underway | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Public Schools | School/School District | Plan 110804 approved 2025-07-23, pending adoption here; not yet eligible | Rogers County (FEMA plan 110804), pending adoption here | 2025-07-23 by FEMA; not yet adopted here | 2030-07-22 once adopted | FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption | Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan. |
State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification
Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)
- dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
- levee failure
- flash flood as its own subtype
- ice jams
- debris flows
- erosion (riverine and coastal)
- land subsidence and sinkholes
- expansive soils
The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)
Sources: 5, 6
| Rank by EAL | Hazard | NRI risk rating | EAL rating | EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year | EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year | Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage | EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year | Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count | Storm Events coverage note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inland Flooding | Very Low | Very Low | $1,996,060 | $162,660 | $39,035 | $2,197,754 | 63 | |
| 2 | Strong Wind | Relatively High | Relatively High | $220,621 | $10,574 | $1,516,786 | $1,747,981 | 153 | Includes 4 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition). |
| 3 | Tornado | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | $302,771 | $3,056 | $1,022,450 | $1,328,278 | 22 | |
| 4 | Cold Wave | Relatively Low | Relatively Moderate | $26 | $147,681 | $934,761 | $1,082,468 | 0 | No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30). |
| 5 | Ice Storm | Relatively High | Relatively High | $889,314 | n/a | $6,957 | $896,272 | 10 | |
| 6 | Heat Wave | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | $425 | $446 | $451,125 | $451,995 | 56 | |
| 7 | Drought | Relatively Moderate | Relatively Low | n/a | $296,728 | n/a | $296,728 | 67 | |
| 8 | Lightning | Relatively Low | Very Low | $4,444 | n/a | $63,175 | $67,619 | 1 | |
| 9 | Earthquake | Very Low | Very Low | $47,847 | n/a | $19,588 | $67,435 | Storm Events does not record earthquakes. | |
| 10 | Hail | Very Low | Very Low | $42,098 | $8,385 | $7,869 | $58,352 | 103 | |
| 11 | Wildfire | Very Low | Very Low | $27,179 | $498 | $11,850 | $39,527 | 2 | |
| 12 | Winter Weather | Relatively Low | Relatively Low | $20,525 | $777 | $6,020 | $27,322 | 38 | |
| 13 | Hurricane | Very Low | Very Low | $3,221 | $3,136 | $24 | $6,381 | 0 | No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30). |
| 14 | Landslide | Very Low | Very Low | $9 | n/a | $388 | $396 | 0 | No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30). |
Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).
NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.
Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).
Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.
The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location
Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.
Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts
Source: 5
| Hazard | Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100 |
|---|---|
| Earthquake | tract 1724 (Relatively Low, 63.8); tract 1721 (Very Low, 36.9); tract 1723 (Very Low, 31.5) |
| Hurricane | tract 1722 (Very Low, 42.2); tract 1724 (Very Low, 41.5); tract 1723 (Very Low, 41.1) |
| Landslide | tract 1723 (Relatively Low, 88.1); tract 1722 (Relatively Low, 84.0); tract 1721 (Very Low, 76.0) |
| Tornado | tract 1724 (Very High, 99.0); tract 1723 (Relatively High, 89.6); tract 1721 (Relatively High, 88.1) |
| Wildfire | tract 1723 (Relatively Moderate, 89.6); tract 1722 (Relatively Low, 84.8); tract 1721 (Relatively Low, 83.3) |
Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1724 is Census Tract 1724). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent
Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard
Sources: 6, 7
| Hazard | Scale | Recordscount and years | Observed range | Worst recorded event | Most damaging (when different) | How it applies to jurisdictions | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill | wind chill | 0 | |||||
| Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition) | crop damage | 0 | |||||
| Drought | U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4) | 67 records, 2005 to 2026 (67 zone-level) | 34 days to 498 days (median 114 days); 11 with a recorded value | 498 days (about 16.4 months), 2022-07-19 to 2023-11-28, a run of 17 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-level | Countywide (zone-level records). | Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only. | |
| Earthquake | Modified Mercalli (local data) | 0 | Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source. | ||||
| Hail | hail size (inches) | 158 records, 1957 to 2025 | 0.75 in to 3 in (median 0.88 in); 157 with a recorded value | 3 in hail, 2003-05-04 | Hail, 2012-09-07, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars) | No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. | |
| Excessive Heat, Heat | heat index (in event narratives) | 56 records, 2006 to 2025 (56 zone-level) | 1 day to 26 days (median 2 days); 51 with a recorded value | 26 consecutive days, 2011-07-14 to 2011-08-08, zone-level | Countywide (zone-level records). | ||
| Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression | Saffir-Simpson | 0 | Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records. | ||||
| Ice Storm | Sperry-Piltz ice scale (local data) | 10 records, 1996 to 2017 (10 zone-level) | Ice Storm, 2007-12-08, $20,000,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone OKZ056 | Countywide (zone-level records). | |||
| Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood | damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM) | 63 records, 1996 to 2026 (1 zone-level) | Flood, 2007-07-01, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars) | No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (1) apply countywide. | Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most. | ||
| Debris Flow | none (count and damage only) | 0 | |||||
| Lightning | annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names) | 1 record, 1996 | Lightning, 1996-05-26, $5,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars) | No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. | Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties. | ||
| High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition) | wind speed (kt and mph) | 4 records, 1998 to 2025 (4 zone-level) | 50 kt (58 mph) to 52 kt (60 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 3 with a recorded value | 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2005-11-27; NWS zone OKZ056 | Countywide (zone-level records). | ||
| Thunderstorm Wind | wind speed (kt and mph) | 207 records, 1956 to 2026 | 50 kt (58 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 141 with a recorded value | 87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-09-07, 3 direct deaths | Thunderstorm Wind, 2002-08-23, $3,500,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars) | No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. | Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range. |
| Tornado | Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007) | 43 records, 1956 to 2024 | F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 38 with a recorded value | F3 tornado, 1979-03-18, 4.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 30 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1979 dollars) | Tornado, 1981-05-23, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1981 dollars) | No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. | Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods). |
| Wildfire | acres burned (local data) | 2 records, 2006 to 2015 (2 zone-level) | Wildfire, 2015-11-11, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); NWS zone OKZ056 | Countywide (zone-level records). | |||
| Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet | none in data (snowfall: local data) | 38 records, 1996 to 2026 (38 zone-level) | No damage reported in 38 records. | Countywide (zone-level records). |
In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.
Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).
Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences
Federal declarations for this county: 31 declarations covering 24 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).
No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.
Federal disaster declarations for this county
Sources: 1, 2, 3
| Declared | Incident began | FEMA number | Type | Title | Mapped hazard | County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars | Flags | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-04-25 | DR-4776-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | Tornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Wind | PA not declared for this county | within last 5 years | |
| 2021-02-24 | 2021-02-08 | DR-4587-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storms | Ice Storm | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 2021-02-17 | 2021-02-08 | EM-3555-OK | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | Ice Storm | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-4587 | |
| 2020-04-05 | 2020-01-20 | DR-4530-OK | Major disaster | COVID-19 Pandemic | Non-natural, not counted | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 2020-03-13 | 2020-01-20 | EM-3462-OK | Emergency | COVID-19 | Non-natural, not counted | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-4530 | |
| 2019-07-12 | 2019-04-30 | DR-4453-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding | Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado | $25,988.36 | ||
| 2019-06-01 | 2019-05-07 | DR-4438-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding | Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado | $1,988,846.76 | ||
| 2015-11-11 | 2015-11-11 | FM-5117-OK | Fire management | Dld Fire Complex | Wildfire | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 2015-05-26 | 2015-05-05 | DR-4222-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding | Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado | $98,428.81 | ||
| 2013-05-20 | 2013-05-18 | DR-4117-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding | Tornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding | $146,200.61 | ||
| 2012-06-14 | 2012-04-28 | DR-4064-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding | Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado | $48,208.49 | ||
| 2011-06-06 | 2011-05-22 | DR-1989-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding | Inland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado | $52,943.05 | ||
| 2011-05-13 | 2011-01-31 | DR-1985-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm | Winter Weather | $53,206.20 | ||
| 2011-02-02 | 2011-01-31 | EM-3316-OK | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | Winter Weather | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-1985 | |
| 2010-03-05 | 2010-01-28 | DR-1883-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | Ice Storm | $60,813.46 | ||
| 2010-02-25 | 2009-12-24 | DR-1876-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storm | Winter Weather | $132,743.26 | ||
| 2010-01-30 | 2010-01-28 | EM-3308-OK | Emergency | Severe Winter Storm | Winter Weather | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-1883 | |
| 2008-07-09 | 2008-06-03 | DR-1775-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms and Flooding | Inland Flooding | $320,420.15 | ||
| 2007-12-18 | 2007-12-08 | DR-1735-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Storms | Ice Storm | $423,988.75 | ||
| 2007-12-10 | 2007-12-08 | EM-3280-OK | Emergency | Severe Winter Storms | Ice Storm | no Public Assistance recorded | same incident as DR-1735 | |
| 2007-07-07 | 2007-06-10 | DR-1712-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes | Inland Flooding; Tornado | $1,011,566.71 | ||
| 2007-06-07 | 2007-05-04 | DR-1707-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding | Inland Flooding; Tornado | $217,743.61 | ||
| 2007-01-14 | 2007-01-12 | EM-3272-OK | Emergency | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding | Ice Storm | $3,549.05 | ||
| 2006-01-10 | 2005-11-27 | DR-1623-OK | Major disaster | Extreme Wildfire Threat | Wildfire | $15,650.65 | ||
| 2005-09-05 | 2005-08-29 | EM-3219-OK | Emergency | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation | Hurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 2003-05-10 | 2003-05-08 | DR-1465-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms and Tornadoes | Tornado | $52,343.85 | ||
| 2002-02-01 | 2002-01-30 | DR-1401-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Ice Storm | Ice Storm | PA not declared for this county | ||
| 2001-01-05 | 2000-12-25 | DR-1355-OK | Major disaster | Severe Winter Ice Storm | Ice Storm | $637,222.98 | ||
| 1995-06-26 | 1995-05-26 | DR-1058-OK | Major disaster | Tornadoes, Severe Storms and Flooding | Tornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 1993-05-12 | 1993-05-08 | DR-991-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms, Tornadoes & Flooding | Inland Flooding; Tornado | no Public Assistance recorded | ||
| 1986-10-14 | 1986-09-26 | DR-778-OK | Major disaster | Severe Storms & Flooding | Inland Flooding | no Public Assistance recorded |
County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.
Statewide declarations
Source: 2
| Declared | Incident began | FEMA number | Type | Title | Mapped hazard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995-04-19 | 1995-04-19 | EM-3115-OK | Emergency | Explosion at Federal Courthouse in Oklahoma City | Non-natural, not counted |
| 1960-07-15 | 1960-07-15 | DR-104-OK | Major disaster | Heavy Rains, Hail, Floods & Tornadoes | Hail; Inland Flooding; Tornado |
| 1959-11-09 | 1959-11-09 | DR-95-OK | Major disaster | Heavy Rains & Floods | Inland Flooding |
| 1959-07-08 | 1959-07-08 | DR-92-OK | Major disaster | Flood | Inland Flooding |
| 1957-05-18 | 1957-05-18 | DR-74-OK | Major disaster | Flood | Inland Flooding |
| 1956-04-07 | 1956-04-07 | DR-54-OK | Major disaster | Tornadoes | Tornado |
| 1955-06-01 | 1955-06-01 | DR-35-OK | Major disaster | Flood & Tornado | Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado |
FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.
13 Fire Management declarations (1971-04-08 to 2012-07-30) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.
Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows
Sources: 2, 6, 7
| Hazard | Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column) | Since plan approvalrecords | In the 12 months before plan approvalrecords | Last 5 yearsrecords | Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters | Declared since approvalseparate disasters | Period | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events | |||
| Drought | 67 | 28 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Earthquake | 0 | 0 | 0 | Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source. | ||||
| Hail | 158 | 4 | 0 | 1955 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Heat Wave | 56 | 23 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Hurricane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events | |||
| Ice Storm | 10 | 0 | 6 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Inland Flooding | 63 | 1 | 13 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Landslide | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events | |||
| Lightning | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Strong Wind | 211 | 10 | 6 | 1955 to 2026-06-30 | Includes 4 High Wind records. | |||
| Tornado | 43 | 2 | 12 | 1950 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Wildfire | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 | ||||
| Winter Weather | 38 | 5 | 3 | 1996 to 2026-06-30 |
Notable Storm Events records
Sources: 1, 6, 7
| Date | Event type | Magnitude or extent | Damagenominal dollars | Deaths, injuriesdirect only | Location | Flags | Why listed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-07-19 | Drought | $0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars) | 0, 0 | NWS zone OKZ056 (NOWATA), zone-level | within last 5 years | B1-c worst recorded: Drought | |
| 2015-11-11 | Wildfire | $250,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars) | 0, 0 | NWS zone OKZ056 (NOWATA), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Wildfire | ||
| 2012-09-07 | Thunderstorm Wind | 87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust | $250,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars) | 3, 0 | NOWATA ARPT | deaths or injuries recorded | |
| 2011-07-14 | Excessive Heat | $0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars) | 0, 0 | NWS zone OKZ056 (NOWATA), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat | ||
| 2007-12-08 | Ice Storm | $20,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars) | 0, 0 | NWS zone OKZ056 (NOWATA), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm | ||
| 2007-07-01 | Flood | $250,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars) | 0, 0 | LENAPAH | B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood | ||
| 2005-11-27 | High Wind | 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust | damage not reported | 0, 0 | NWS zone OKZ056 (NOWATA), zone-level | B1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind | |
| 2003-05-04 | Hail | 3 in | damage not reported | 0, 0 | NOWATA | B1-c worst recorded: Hail | |
| 1996-05-26 | Lightning | $5,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars) | 0, 0 | NOWATA | B1-c worst recorded: Lightning | ||
| 1981-05-23 | Tornado | F2, 9.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide | damage not recorded (pre-1996 record) | 0, 3 | location not recorded | deaths or injuries recorded | |
| 1981-05-23 | Tornado | F2, 4.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide | $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1981 dollars) | 0, 3 | location not recorded | deaths or injuries recorded | |
| 1979-03-18 | Tornado | F3, 4.1 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 30 yd wide | $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1979 dollars) | 0, 0 | location not recorded | B1-c worst recorded: Tornado |
The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (649 rows).
Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.
Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).
Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events
Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard
Sources: 5, 6
| Hazard | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row | Unit | In plain terms | Descriptor | Descriptor basis | NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional) | NRI period | Location | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | 2 | event-days per year | about 2 days per year | Storm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%) | 38 | 2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years) | countywide | No Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025. | |
| Drought | 34.5 | event-days per year | about 34.5 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%) | 973 | 2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only) | countywide | |
| Earthquake | 0.00123 | annual probability at a location | chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.123% | not shown | modeled | see B1-f | No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes). | ||
| Hail | 8.15 | events per year | about 8.15 per year | Highly likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | 310.3 (modeled) | 1986 to 2023 (38 years) | countywide | |
| Heat Wave | 23.5 | event-days per year | about 23.5 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%) | 314 | 2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years) | countywide | |
| Hurricane | 0.01 | events per year | about 1 in 100 years | Possible | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | 0 | 1851 to 2024 (Atlantic) | see B1-f | NRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d. |
| Ice Storm | 1.04 | event-days per year | about 1.04 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%) | 71 | 1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years) | countywide | |
| Inland Flooding | 1.82 | event-days per year | about 1.82 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%) | 51 | 1996 to 2023 (28 years) | see B1-f | |
| Landslide | 0.104 | events per year (modeled) | about 1 in 10 years | Likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | not shown | modeled | see B1-f | |
| Lightning | 54.6 | days per year with a strike | about 54.6 days per year | Highly likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | not shown | 1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS) | countywide | |
| Strong Wind | 6.7 | events per year | about 6.7 per year | Highly likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | 255 | 1986 to 2023 (38 years) | countywide | |
| Tornado | 0.557 | events per year | about 0.56 per year | Likely | FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) | not shown | 1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1) | see B1-f | |
| Wildfire | 0.00171 | annual probability at a location | chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.171% | Possible | Storm Events records in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%) | not shown | modeled | see B1-f | |
| Winter Weather | 9.37 | event-days per year | about 9.37 days per year | Likely | Storm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%) | 178 | 2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years) | countywide |
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.
Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.
Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)
Sources: 5, 6
| Unit | Descriptor | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| events per year | Highly likely | 1 or more per year |
| events per year | Likely | about once in 1 to 10 years |
| events per year | Possible | about once in 10 to 100 years |
| events per year | Unlikely | less than once in 100 years |
| annual probability | Likely | 10% to under 100% chance in a given year |
| annual probability | Possible | 1% to under 10% chance in a given year |
| annual probability | Unlikely | under 1% chance in a given year |
| event-days (share of years) | Highly likely | event-days recorded in 90% or more of years |
| event-days (share of years) | Likely | event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years |
| event-days (share of years) | Possible | event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years |
| lightning strike-days | Highly likely | cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year |
Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)
Source: 6
| Hazard | Band | Years | Eventscounty-coded records | Years in period | Events per yearevents / years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hail | 1.00-1.99 in | 1996 to 2025 | 36 | 30 | 1.2 |
| Hail | 2.00 in+ | 1996 to 2025 | 8 | 30 | 0.267 |
| Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind) | 50-64 kt | 1996 to 2025 | 92 | 30 | 3.07 |
| Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind) | 65 kt+ | 1996 to 2025 | 22 | 30 | 0.733 |
| Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind) | unmeasured or below 50 kt | 1996 to 2025 | 32 | 30 | 1.07 |
| Tornado | EF0-1 | 1996 to 2025 | 17 | 30 | 0.567 |
| Tornado | EF2-3 | 1996 to 2025 | 1 | 30 | 0.0333 |
| Tornado | EF4-5 | 1996 to 2025 | 0 | 30 | 0 |
| Tornado | unrated (EFU) | 1996 to 2025 | 4 | 30 | 0.133 |
The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).
Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.
Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).
Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions
Range of census tract risk within the county
Source: 5
| Hazard | Tractsrated of all | NRI risk score, 0 to 100 | Tracts by rating | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Min | Median | Max | |||
| Cold Wave | 4 of 4 | 88.6 | 90.9 | 96.9 | Very High 1, Relatively High 3 |
| Drought | 4 of 4 | 75.0 | 94.8 | 97.6 | Relatively Moderate 3, Very Low 1 |
| Earthquake | 4 of 4 | 28.6 | 34.2 | 63.8 | Relatively Low 1, Very Low 3 |
| Hail | 4 of 4 | 63.9 | 65.3 | 78.2 | Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3 |
| Heat Wave | 4 of 4 | 81.6 | 83.1 | 94.5 | Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3 |
| Hurricane | 4 of 4 | 38.8 | 41.3 | 42.2 | Very Low 4 |
| Ice Storm | 4 of 4 | 98.4 | 99.3 | 99.9 | Very High 4 |
| Inland Flooding | 4 of 4 | 50.9 | 65.8 | 73.5 | Relatively Moderate 4 |
| Landslide | 4 of 4 | 66.1 | 80.0 | 88.1 | Relatively Low 2, Very Low 2 |
| Lightning | 4 of 4 | 61.5 | 64.2 | 89.4 | Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3 |
| Strong Wind | 4 of 4 | 99.4 | 99.5 | 99.9 | Very High 4 |
| Tornado | 4 of 4 | 86.0 | 88.8 | 99.0 | Very High 1, Relatively High 3 |
| Wildfire | 4 of 4 | 82.4 | 84.0 | 89.6 | Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3 |
| Winter Weather | 4 of 4 | 70.6 | 75.4 | 91.3 | Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3 |
Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.
Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.
The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.
Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).
Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)
Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6
| Jurisdiction | Type | Plan status | Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition | Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars | Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No rows for this unit. | ||||||
No city, town, township or county rows in FEMA plan data for this unit; same as county.
School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.
Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts
Local data needed
The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.
No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.
- Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
- A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
- Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
- Future assets
County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
| Hazard | Building exposuremodeled dollars | Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars | Population exposedpeople | EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year | EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year | Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage | EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted | Storm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollars | Zone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zone | Public Assistance since plannominal dollars; see note | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold Wave | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $26 | $147,681 | $934,761 | under 0.0001% | ||||
| Drought | n/a | $5,030,503 | n/a | n/a | $296,728 | n/a | 5.9% (agriculture) | NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown | |||
| Earthquake | $2,890,458,337 | n/a | 9,320 | $47,847 | n/a | $19,588 | 0.00166% | ||||
| Hail | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $42,098 | $8,385 | $7,869 | 0.00254% | ||||
| Heat Wave | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $425 | $446 | $451,125 | under 0.0001% | ||||
| Hurricane | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $3,221 | $3,136 | $24 | 0.000194% | ||||
| Ice Storm | $1,660,567,771 | n/a | 9,310 | $889,314 | n/a | $6,957 | 0.0536% | ||||
| Inland Flooding | $1,659,724,173 | $6,861,505 | 322 | $1,996,060 | $162,660 | $39,035 | n/a (see note) | NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b. | |||
| Landslide | $5,308,237 | n/a | 31 | $9 | n/a | $388 | 0.000164% | ||||
| Lightning | $1,660,641,885 | n/a | 9,311 | $4,444 | n/a | $63,175 | 0.000268% | ||||
| Strong Wind | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $220,621 | $10,574 | $1,516,786 | 0.0133% | ||||
| Tornado | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $302,771 | $3,056 | $1,022,450 | 0.0182% | ||||
| Wildfire | $185,946,830 | $41,137,883 | 2,703 | $27,179 | $498 | $11,850 | 0.0146% | ||||
| Winter Weather | $1,660,641,885 | $69,547,930 | 9,311 | $20,525 | $777 | $6,020 | 0.00124% |
Totals since the plan: not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.
FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.
NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)
County context
Source: 5
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Population | 9,311 |
| Building value (total, not at risk) | $1,660,641,885 |
| Agriculture value (total, not at risk) | $69,547,930 |
| NRI risk rating (all hazards) | Very Low |
| Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards | $4,188,479 |
| Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage) | $4,080,028 |
| Social vulnerability rating | Very High |
| Community resilience rating | Very Low |
| NRI version | December 2025 |
FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.
Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.
Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties
Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions
Sources: 1, 4
| Definition | Properties | Severe repetitive loss | Properties |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2) | 0 | Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2) | 0 |
| Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition | 1 | Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition | 0 |
The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).
Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities
Sources: 1, 4
| Scope | RL, FMAproperties | SRL, FMAproperties | RL, NFIPproperties | SRL, NFIPproperties | Any categoryproperties | Mitigatedproperties | Currently insuredproperties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County total | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| of which: Nowata city (community ID not in plan data) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group
Sources: 1, 4
| Occupancy group | RL, FMAproperties | SRL, FMAproperties | RL, NFIPproperties | SRL, NFIPproperties | Any categoryproperties | Mitigatedproperties | Currently insuredproperties |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| single-family residential | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 to 4 unit residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| other residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| non-residential | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| not reported | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.
FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.
Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.
In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.
Exact counts; no count suppression.
Sources
Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):
- FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
- FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
- FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
- FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
- FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
- NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
- NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
- U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)
What this packet is and what the plan adds
This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.
The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.
How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.
OpenFEMA disclaimer
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
Reuse, citation and corrections
Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.
Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Nowata County, OK: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 40105). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ok/40105/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.
Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org