Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Atoka County, OK

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
40005
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2014-12-16. Plan: Atoka County (FEMA plan 100070), approved 2009-12-16.

Since the plan was approved on 2009-12-16: 9 new hazard declarations (8 incidents) and 321 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($1,894,896 a year), Hail ($1,888,272) and Tornado ($935,800).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2014-12-16
Plan:
Atoka County (FEMA plan 100070)
Approved:
2009-12-16
Days since expiry:
4,306
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2009-12-16)

New federal declarations:
9 new hazard declarations (8 incidents): EM-3308-OK (Severe Winter Storm), EM-3316-OK (Severe Winter Storm), DR-1970-OK (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds), DR-4117-OK (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4222-OK (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding), DR-4453-OK (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding), EM-3555-OK (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4587-OK (Severe Winter Storms), DR-4721-OK (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes); also 2 COVID-19 declarations (not counted)
Storm Events records since approval:
321 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Atoka CountyCountyExpired on 2014-12-16Atoka County (FEMA plan 100070)2009-12-162014-12-16-4,306
Atoka cityCityExpired on 2014-12-09Atoka (FEMA plan 54905)2009-12-092014-12-09-4,313
Caney townTownNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Stringtown townTownExpired on 2014-11-15Stringtown (FEMA plan 58435)2009-11-152014-11-15-4,337
Tushka townTownExpired on 2014-11-18Tushka (FEMA plan 58538)2009-11-182014-11-18-4,334
Coalgate Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictPlan 106485 approved 2022-06-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleCoal County (FEMA plan 106485), pending adoption here2022-06-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-06-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Name not given in FEMA data (ID NM06_71301)School/School DistrictExpired on 2018-12-09Tushka Public School (FEMA plan 71301)2013-12-102018-12-09-2,852this jurisdiction approved 2013-12-09

FEMA plan data lists 1 school district row with no name (FEMA IDs only) and 1 named school district. FEMA files some districts under two ID schemes on different plans, so a named district's 'No approved plan on record' can sit beside an unnamed row that has a plan.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$1,870,609$14,290$9,997$1,894,89635
2HailRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$1,846,476$400$41,396$1,888,272151
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$345,461$1,013$589,326$935,80030
4Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$154$290$549,887$550,33192
5Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$524,463n/a$22,824$547,2875
6WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$372,711$2,561$126,294$501,56625
7Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$9,354$80$383,468$392,90210Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
8DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Lown/a$364,278n/a$364,27880
9Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$67,681$63$122,169$189,91392Includes 5 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$13,121n/a$75,741$88,8623
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$63,252n/a$24,216$87,469Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$16,951$312$12,178$29,44126Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$11,844$4,664$386$16,8950No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$468n/a$87$5550No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 5877 (Relatively Low, 61.0); tract 5878 (Relatively Low, 49.4); tract 5879 (Relatively Low, 46.9)
Hurricanetract 5877 (Very Low, 50.1); tract 5878 (Very Low, 49.2); tract 5879 (Very Low, 47.6)
Landslidetract 5876 (Relatively Low, 90.5); tract 5879 (Very Low, 76.8); tract 5878 (Very Low, 73.4)
Tornadotract 5877 (Relatively High, 91.6); tract 5879 (Relatively High, 87.9); tract 5878 (Relatively High, 86.5)
Wildfiretract 5876 (Relatively High, 96.7); tract 5877 (Relatively Moderate, 96.1); tract 5878 (Relatively Moderate, 95.6)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 5877 is Census Tract 5877). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill9 records, 1996 to 2025 (9 zone-level)2 days to 5 days (median 3 days); 8 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 1996-02-01 to 1996-02-05, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2023 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)80 records, 2000 to 2024 (80 zone-level)12 days to 414 days (median 96 days); 18 with a recorded value414 days (about 13.6 months), 2005-12-01 to 2007-01-18, a run of 14 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2000-08-01, property not reported; $8,330,000 crops (zone total, 2000 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)260 records, 1956 to 2026 (2 zone-level)0.75 in to 4.25 in (median 1 in); 260 with a recorded value4.25 in hail, 2011-04-19Hail, 2013-03-30, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Atoka city (37 records), Caney town (37 records), Stringtown town (25 records), Tushka town (10 records). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)92 records, 2001 to 2025 (92 zone-level)1 day to 29 days (median 3 days); 28 with a recorded value29 consecutive days, 2006-07-16 to 2006-08-13, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 1996 to 2000 (5 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2000-12-26, $450,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars); NWS zone OKZ048Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)35 records, 1996 to 2026 (3 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2015-05-10, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Atoka city (13 records), Stringtown town (5 records), Caney town (2 records), Tushka town (2 records). Zone-level records (3) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 1999 to 2005Lightning, 2005-04-11, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Atoka city (2 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)5 records, 1996 to 2025 (5 zone-level)39 kt (45 mph) to 56 kt (64 mph) (median 45 kt (52 mph)); 4 with a recorded value56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2025-05-18; NWS zone OKZ048Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)119 records, 1958 to 2026 (2 zone-level)50 kt (58 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 84 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2025-04-19; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2009-07-08Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-05-23, $500,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Atoka city (36 records), Caney town (14 records), Stringtown town (6 records), Tushka town (5 records). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)54 records, 1953 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 53 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1966-04-27, 2.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 300 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1966 dollars)Tornado, 1982-11-22, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1982 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Atoka city (7 records), Stringtown town (5 records), Tushka town (2 records), Caney town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)25 records, 2016 to 2026 (25 zone-level)Wildfire, 2026-02-06, $11,500 property; crops not reported (2026 dollars); NWS zone OKZ048Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)26 records, 1996 to 2026 (26 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2007-01-12, $180,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone OKZ048Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 28 declarations covering 22 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2023-07-192023-06-14DR-4721-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesStrong Wind; Tornado$15,312.12new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-02-242021-02-08DR-4587-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$28,673.02new since last plan
2021-02-172021-02-08EM-3555-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4587
2020-04-052020-01-20DR-4530-OKMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3462-OKEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordednew since last plansame incident as DR-4530
2019-07-122019-04-30DR-4453-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$143,046.22new since last plan
2015-05-262015-05-05DR-4222-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$916,639.01new since last plan
2013-05-202013-05-18DR-4117-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$62,520.12new since last plan
2011-04-222011-04-14DR-1970-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind; Tornado$2,634,157.33new since last plan
2011-02-022011-01-31EM-3316-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan
2010-01-302010-01-28EM-3308-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan
2007-12-102007-12-08EM-3280-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2007-07-072007-06-10DR-1712-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$94,734.87
2007-06-072007-05-04DR-1707-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$118,734.52
2007-02-012007-01-12DR-1678-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weather$163,440.75
2007-01-142007-01-12EM-3272-OKEmergencySevere Winter Storms and FloodingIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1678
2006-01-102005-11-27DR-1623-OKMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$13,210.14
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3219-OKEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-06-292001-05-27DR-1384-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2001-01-052000-12-25DR-1355-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Storm$413,179.92
2000-12-282000-12-25EM-3158-OKEmergencySevere Winter and Ice StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1355
1995-06-261995-05-26DR-1058-OKMajor disasterTornadoes, Severe Storms and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-05-121993-05-08DR-991-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1990-05-181990-04-14DR-866-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1981-11-041981-11-04DR-649-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-06-131973-06-13DR-392-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, & TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1972-01-141972-01-14DR-317-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1970-10-141970-10-14DR-297-OKMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1995-04-191995-04-19EM-3115-OKEmergencyExplosion at Federal Courthouse in Oklahoma CityNon-natural, not counted
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-104-OKMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-11-091959-11-09DR-95-OKMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodsInland Flooding
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-92-OKMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1957-05-181957-05-18DR-74-OKMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1956-04-071956-04-07DR-54-OKMajor disasterTornadoesTornado
1955-06-011955-06-01DR-35-OKMajor disasterFlood & TornadoInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

13 Fire Management declarations (1971-04-08 to 2012-07-30) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave10807001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought8060322001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail26051119001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave9289089001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm5000411996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding3514071331996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind124401023441955 to 2026-06-30Includes 5 High Wind records.
Tornado5421051351950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire252508101996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather261304321996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-02-06Wildfire$11,500 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OKZ048 (ATOKA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2025-05-18High Wind56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OKZ048 (ATOKA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2019-04-30TornadoEF3, 12.2 mi within this county, 1,000 yd wide$0 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)0, 5BENTLEY to LANEnew since last plandeaths or injuries recorded
2015-05-10Flash Flood$400,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)0, 0STRINGTOWNnew since last planB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-04-19Hail4.25 in$0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0STRINGTOWNnew since last planB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2011-04-14TornadoEF3, 17 mi within this county, 1,320 yd wide$0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)2, 40TUSHKA to STRINGTOWNnew since last plandeaths or injuries recorded
2006-07-16Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OKZ048 (ATOKA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2005-12-01Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OKZ048 (ATOKA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2000-12-26Ice Storm$450,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2000 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OKZ048 (ATOKA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
1996-02-01Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OKZ048 (ATOKA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1991-03-21TornadoF2, 19 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 400 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1991 dollars)0, 6location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1966-04-27TornadoF4, 2.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 300 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1966 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (714 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.26event-days per yearabout 1.26 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)242005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought41.2event-days per yearabout 41.2 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)1,3302000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00146annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.146%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail6.14events per yearabout 6.14 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)233.4 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave21.2event-days per yearabout 21.2 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)3422005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.00924events per yearabout 1 in 108 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)41851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.47event-days per yearabout 1.47 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)991946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.786event-days per yearabout 0.786 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)221996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.451events per year (modeled)about 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning58.5days per year with a strikeabout 58.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.04events per yearabout 3.04 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1161986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.747events per yearabout 0.75 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0102annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 1.02%LikelyStorm Events records in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather5.21event-days per yearabout 5.21 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)992005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202560302
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202513300.433
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202568302.27
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20255300.167
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20258300.267
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202522300.733
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave4 of 456.775.778.6Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought1 of 498.698.698.6Relatively High 1, No Rating 3
Earthquake4 of 424.848.261.0Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Hail4 of 497.799.399.8Very High 3, Relatively High 1
Heat Wave4 of 477.191.292.7Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Hurricane4 of 443.148.450.1Very Low 4
Ice Storm4 of 496.498.799.6Very High 3, Relatively High 1
Inland Flooding4 of 434.745.674.0Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3
Landslide4 of 472.075.190.5Relatively Low 1, Very Low 3
Lightning4 of 458.182.185.6Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Strong Wind4 of 467.584.787.8Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado4 of 467.787.291.6Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire4 of 495.295.896.7Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3
Winter Weather4 of 463.981.987.2Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Atoka CountyCountyExpired on 2014-12-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,976,583.410 total; 0 since its plan
Atoka cityCityExpired on 2014-12-09FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$124,382.1795 total; 36 since its plan
Caney townTownNo approved plan on recordFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$25,727.0854 total; no approved plan
Stringtown townTownExpired on 2014-11-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$2,926.1641 total; 12 since its plan
Tushka townTownExpired on 2014-11-18$413,144.8319 total; 10 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2009-12-16county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$2,113,364,267$50,225,64914,119$9,354$80$383,4680.000443%$0
Droughtn/a$2,603,855n/an/a$364,278n/a14% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$3,681,142,326n/a14,143$63,252n/a$24,2160.00172%
Hail$2,113,364,267$50,225,64914,119$1,846,476$400$41,3960.0874%$202,000
Heat Wave$2,113,364,267$50,225,64914,119$154$290$549,887under 0.0001%
Hurricane$2,105,146,367$47,867,70714,084$11,844$4,664$3860.000563%
Ice Storm$2,113,364,267n/a14,119$524,463n/a$22,8240.0248%$28,673.02
Inland Flooding$2,112,438,837$2,724,779191$1,870,609$14,290$9,997n/a (see note)$575,000$1,122,205.35NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$19,011,539n/a136$468n/a$870.00246%
Lightning$2,113,364,267n/a14,119$13,121n/a$75,7410.000621%
Strong Wind$2,113,364,267$50,225,64914,119$67,681$63$122,1690.0032%$95,000$100,000$3,709,154.68Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level High Wind record ($100,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$2,113,364,267$50,225,64914,119$345,461$1,013$589,3260.0163%$1,212,000$3,771,674.80
Wildfire$460,220,547$35,854,0816,859$372,711$2,561$126,2940.081%$25,800
Winter Weather$2,113,364,267$50,225,64914,119$16,951$312$12,1780.000802%$0no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)

Totals since 2009-12-16 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 125 county-coded records, 85 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $2,084,000; 196 zone-level records, 39 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $125,800 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $3,800,347.82 on 9 counted declarations, 6 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population14,119
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,113,364,267
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$50,225,649
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,530,498
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,957,969
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0010100
of which: Stringtown town0010100

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Atoka County4005080000000
Atoka city4000080000000
Caney town4002730000000
Stringtown town4003290010100

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0000000
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0010100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Atoka County, OK: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 40005). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ok/40005/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org