Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Erie County, OH

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
39043
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligible.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($13,429,692 a year), Tornado ($3,426,111) and Hail ($916,573).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
No approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligible
Plan:
none
Approved:
none
Expires:
none
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

What changed since your last plan

Not available. No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Erie CountyCountyNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Bay View villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Bellevue cityCityApproved, expires 2030-07-08Sandusky County 2025 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110966)2025-07-092030-07-081,377FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionthis jurisdiction approved 2025-09-03
Berlin Heights villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Castalia villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Huron cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Kelleys Island villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Milan villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Sandusky cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Vermilion cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$13,250,529$113,884$65,279$13,429,69271
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$2,145,747$739$1,279,626$3,426,1116
3HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$902,893$7,609$6,072$916,57390
4Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$570,777$34,234$294,681$899,692229Includes 42 High Wind and 6 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$10,075$4,627$859,749$874,45111
6EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$403,969n/a$85,862$489,831Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$361,879n/a$1,609$363,4881
8Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$182,329$374$53,247$235,94937
9Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$3,747$1$208,074$211,8222
10LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$33,809n/a$152,986$186,7947
11HurricaneVery LowVery Low$54,878$13,717$917$69,5110No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12Coastal FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$58,083n/a$2,710$60,7937
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$8,061$5$939$9,0050No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$54n/a$559$6140No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$05
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire, landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 419 (Relatively Low, 65.9); tract 418 (Relatively Low, 64.6); tract 416 (Relatively Low, 60.6)
Hurricanetract 418 (Relatively Low, 53.5); tract 419 (Very Low, 49.8); tract 403 (Very Low, 49.0)
Landslidetract 418 (Relatively Low, 87.7); tract 403 (Relatively Low, 84.5); tract 404 (Very Low, 74.2)
Tornadotract 418 (Relatively High, 89.0); tract 419 (Relatively High, 88.8); tract 416 (Relatively High, 83.6)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 402 (Relatively Low, 73.2); tract 403 (Relatively Low, 71.0); tract 418 (Relatively Low, 70.6)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 419 is Census Tract 419). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)7 records, 1997 to 2019 (1 zone-level)Storm Surge/Tide, 1998-04-09, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sandusky city (3 records), Bay View village (1 record). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill11 records, 1996 to 2022 (11 zone-level)1 day to 10 days (median 2 days); 11 with a recorded value10 consecutive days, 1997-01-10 to 1997-01-19, zone-levelExtreme Cold/Wind Chill, 2012-04-29, $200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)5 records, 1996 to 1999 (5 zone-level)31 days to 122 days (median 76.5 days); 2 with a recorded value122 days (4 months), 1999-06-01 to 1999-09-30, a run of 4 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 1999-09-01, property not reported; $7,000,000 crops (zone total, 1999 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)108 records, 1974 to 20240.75 in to 2 in (median 0.88 in); 108 with a recorded value2 in hail, 2012-08-09; same size also recorded on 2010-05-07, 2011-05-25Hail, 2011-05-25, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sandusky city (30 records), Milan village (12 records), Huron city (10 records), Castalia village (7 records), Vermilion city (7 records), Berlin Heights village (4 records), Bay View village (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 1999 (2 zone-level)7 days to 31 days (median 19 days); 2 with a recorded valueJuly 1999 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2005 (1 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2005-01-05, $600,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars); NWS zone OHZ009Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)71 records, 1996 to 2025 (37 zone-level)Flood, 2006-06-22, $24,500,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Vermilion city (7 records), Milan village (6 records), Huron city (3 records), Sandusky city (3 records), Castalia village (2 records), Berlin Heights village (1 record). Zone-level records (37) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)7 records, 1996 to 1998Lightning, 1996-06-11, $350,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Huron city (3 records), Berlin Heights village (1 record), Milan village (1 record), Sandusky city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)48 records, 1996 to 2022 (48 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 68 kt (78 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 37 with a recorded value68 kt (78 mph), measurement type not recorded, High Wind, 1996-01-27; NWS zone OHZ009High Wind, 2008-09-14, $2,500,000 property; $750,000 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)236 records, 1968 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 98 kt (113 mph) (median 50.5 kt (58 mph)); 160 with a recorded value98 kt (113 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-11-10Thunderstorm Wind, 2016-06-05, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sandusky city (45 records), Castalia village (23 records), Milan village (17 records), Vermilion city (17 records), Huron city (12 records), Berlin Heights village (11 records), Bay View village (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)15 records, 1953 to 2023F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 14 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1953-06-08, 26 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, damage not recorded (pre-1996 record), 2 direct deaths, 23 direct injuriesTornado, 1992-07-12, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1992 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bellevue city (1 record), Milan village (1 record), Sandusky city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)37 records, 1996 to 2022 (36 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2004-12-22, $3,800,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars); NWS zone OHZ009No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (36) apply countywide.

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow, lightning and tsunami.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 14 declarations covering 8 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsNotes
2020-03-312020-01-20DR-4507-OHMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$7,236.25
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3457-OHEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4507
2012-06-302012-06-29EM-3346-OHEmergencySevere StormsHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2006-07-022006-06-21DR-1651-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3250-OHEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-01-112004-12-22EM-3198-OHEmergencySnowWinter Weather$183,038.17
2004-09-192004-08-27DR-1556-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
2003-09-232003-08-14EM-3187-OHEmergencyPower OutageNon-natural, not counted$20,353.54
1995-08-251995-08-07DR-1065-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1992-08-041992-07-12DR-951-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1978-01-261978-01-26EM-3055-OHEmergencyBlizzards & SnowstormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1973-04-271973-04-27DR-377-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1972-11-241972-11-24DR-362-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1969-07-151969-07-15DR-266-OHMajor disasterTornadoes, Severe Storms & FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-241964-03-24DR-167-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1959-01-231959-01-23DR-90-OHMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1956-05-171956-05-17DR-57-OHMajor disasterWind StormOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $3,668.34

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
EM-3286-OH2008-04-24Record Snow and Near Record SnowBellevue, City of$3,668.34

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Ohio county: 1 row, $3,080,910.74; listed on the Ohio state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding7001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave11101996 to 2026-06-30
Drought5001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail108301955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm1001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding71461996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning7001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind2843311955 to 2026-06-30Includes 42 High Wind and 6 Strong Wind records.
Tornado15131950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather37221996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2012-08-09Hail2 in$15,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)0, 0COLUMBUS PARKB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2006-06-22Flood$24,500,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2006 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2005-01-05Ice Storm$600,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2005 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OHZ009 (ERIE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2004-12-22Winter Storm$3,800,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2004 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OHZ009 (ERIE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1999-07-01Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OHZ009 (ERIE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-11-10Thunderstorm Wind98 kt (113 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0LAKESHOREB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-01-13Winter Weatherdamage not reported0, 8COUNTYWIDEdeaths or injuries recorded
1997-01-10Cold/Wind Chill$5,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1997 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OHZ009 (ERIE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1996-06-11Lightning$350,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)0, 0HURONB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1996-01-27High Wind68 kt (78 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OHZ009 (ERIE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1977-06-30TornadoF1, 0.8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1977 dollars)0, 3location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1953-06-08TornadoF4, 26 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd widedamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)2, 23location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (548 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding0.0147events per year at a location (modeled)about 0.015 per year at a given location in the countyLikelyStorm Events records in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Cold Wave4.26event-days per yearabout 4.26 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)812005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNRI models no drought event-days here (2000 to 2025, 25.25 years; D3 and D4 only); Storm Events has a record in 2 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which counts D2 drought that NRI leaves out.
Earthquake0.00101annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.101%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.44events per yearabout 3.44 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)151.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.42event-days per yearabout 2.42 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)422005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0173events per yearabout 1 in 58 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)41851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.6event-days per yearabout 0.6 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)201946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.07event-days per yearabout 2.07 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)581996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0473events per year (modeled)about 1 in 21 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning39days per year with a strikeabout 39 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.55events per yearabout 2.55 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)461986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.264events per yearabout 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.0000298annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00298%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather9.37event-days per yearabout 9.37 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)1782005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202534301.13
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20253300.1
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025129304.3
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202510300.333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202532301.07
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding19 of 1968.078.391.3Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 11, Very Low 7
Cold Wave19 of 1931.648.162.0Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 9
Drought0 of 19No Rating 19
Earthquake19 of 1925.543.265.9Relatively Low 11, Very Low 8
Hail19 of 1970.681.592.0Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 17
Heat Wave19 of 196.115.527.7Relatively Low 8, Very Low 11
Hurricane19 of 1936.843.353.5Relatively Low 1, Very Low 18
Ice Storm19 of 1961.781.992.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 5
Inland Flooding19 of 196.243.994.4Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 9, Very Low 2
Landslide19 of 199.153.487.7Relatively Low 2, Very Low 17
Lightning19 of 1925.842.963.7Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 13
Strong Wind19 of 1960.376.391.5Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 14
Tornado19 of 1958.071.189.0Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 13
Tsunami0 of 19Insufficient Data 19
Wildfire17 of 1920.149.173.2Relatively Low 3, Very Low 14, No Rating 2
Winter Weather19 of 1971.785.095.0Relatively High 14, Relatively Moderate 5

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Erie CountyCountyNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 3, SRL 2; any 24no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Bay View villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded5 total; no approved plan
Bellevue cityCityApproved, expires 2030-07-08FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 4$17,125.621 total; 0 since its planWhole community, including the part in Huron County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Berlin Heights villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded17 total; no approved plan
Castalia villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,587.1432 total; no approved plan
Huron cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 5; any 16$10,346.2128 total; no approved plan
Kelleys Island villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Milan villageVillageNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$3,426.5337 total; no approved planIncludes $824.77 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3187-OH).
Sandusky cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 3; any 24$44,328.4283 total; no approved planIncludes $11,501.53 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4507-OH, EM-3187-OH).
Vermilion cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 9; any 37$22,166.5631 total; no approved planWhole community, including the part in Cuyahoga County and Lorain County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 0, FMA SRL 8, NFIP RL 28, NFIP SRL 7, any category 29. Includes $2,573.96 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3187-OH).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$5,074,615,389n/a3,968$58,083n/a$2,7100.00114%
Cold Wave$20,011,372,967$121,281,96875,596$10,075$4,627$859,749under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$35,063,722,460n/a75,622$403,969n/a$85,8620.00115%
Hail$20,011,372,967$121,281,96875,596$902,893$7,609$6,0720.00451%
Heat Wave$20,011,372,967$121,281,96875,596$3,747$1$208,074under 0.0001%
Hurricane$20,004,145,085$120,992,10675,577$54,878$13,717$9170.000274%
Ice Storm$19,747,345,307n/a74,769$361,879n/a$1,6090.00183%
Inland Flooding$19,892,755,206$3,726,1383,175$13,250,529$113,884$65,279n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$129,720,464n/a412$54n/a$559under 0.0001%
Lightning$20,011,372,967n/a75,596$33,809n/a$152,9860.000169%
Strong Wind$20,011,372,967$121,281,96875,596$570,777$34,234$294,6810.00285%
Tornado$20,011,372,967$121,281,96875,596$2,145,747$739$1,279,6260.0107%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$4,799,927,580$23,617,93918,604$8,061$5$9390.000168%
Winter Weather$20,011,372,967$121,281,96875,596$182,329$374$53,2470.000911%

Totals since the plan: not available. No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population75,596
Building value (total, not at risk)$20,011,372,967
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$121,281,968
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$18,162,018
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$3,012,309
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Moderate
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)3Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)18
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition90Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition16

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total318901693116
of which: Erie County (unincorporated area)322212416
of which: Huron city051651603
of which: Sandusky city032432404
of which: Vermilion city082872903
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0010100

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Erie County390153322212416
Bay View village3905950000000
Bellevue city3904870040400Whole community, including the part in Huron County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Berlin Heights village3906500000000
Castalia village3906530000000
Huron city390154051651603
Kelleys Island village3907380000000
Milan village3901550000000
Sandusky city390156032432404
Vermilion city395374093683704Whole community, including the part in Cuyahoga County and Lorain County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 0, FMA SRL 8, NFIP RL 28, NFIP SRL 7, any category 29.

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential314781281114
2 to 4 unit residential0010100
other residential0010100
non-residential041041002
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 88 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Erie County, OH: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 39043). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/oh/39043/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org