Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Sullivan County, NH

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
33019
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No county-level plan row in FEMA data.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($11,702,448 a year), Cold Wave ($682,772) and Hurricane ($561,307).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

No county-level plan row in FEMA data

What changed since your last plan

Not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 14 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Claremont cityCityApproved, expires 2027-03-20City of Claremont, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108200)2022-03-212027-03-20171
Acworth townTownApproved, expires 2030-09-15Town of Acworth Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2025 (FEMA plan 110985)2025-09-162030-09-151,446
Charlestown townTownApproved, expires 2031-08-11Town of Charlestown, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2026 (FEMA plan 111995)2026-08-122031-08-111,776
Cornish townTownApproved, expires 2029-03-25Town of Cornish, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2024 (FEMA plan 108727)2024-03-262029-03-25907
Goshen townTownApproved, expires 2026-12-20Town of Goshen, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2021 (FEMA plan 107992)2021-12-212026-12-2081
Grantham townTownApproved, expires 2031-08-11Town of Grantham, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2026 (FEMA plan 111876)2026-08-122031-08-111,776
Langdon townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-15Langdon Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2026, Langdon New Hampshire (FEMA plan 111660)2026-04-162031-04-151,658
Lempster townTownApproved, expires 2030-07-23Town of Lempster, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2025 (FEMA plan 110971)2025-07-242030-07-231,392
Newport townTownApproved, expires 2027-03-03Town of Newport, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2022 (FEMA plan 108145)2022-03-042027-03-03154
Plainfield townTownApproved, expires 2029-10-03Town of Plainfield, NH Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2024 (FEMA plan 110126)2024-10-042029-10-031,099
Springfield townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-15Springfield, NH Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2026 (FEMA plan 111704)2026-04-162031-04-151,658
Sunapee townTownApproved, expires 2027-07-21Town of Sunapee, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan Update 2022 (FEMA plan 108421)2022-07-222027-07-21294
Unity townTownApproved, expires 2030-07-23Town of Unity, NH Hazard Mitigation Plan 2025 Edition (FEMA plan 110934)2025-07-242030-07-231,392
Washington townTownApproved, expires 2027-01-17Town of Washington, New Hampshire Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108023)2022-01-182027-01-17109

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$11,448,550$15,660$238,238$11,702,44858
2Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$71$4,492$678,209$682,77222Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$494,830$41,323$25,154$561,3071
4TornadoVery LowRelatively Low$152,806$213$229,654$382,6743
5Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Lowunder $1$14,038$347,235$361,2732
6LightningRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$18,561n/a$305,091$323,6526
7Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$55,721$871$238,868$295,460177Includes 16 High Wind and 28 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$201,797n/a$33,381$235,178Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
9Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$221,775n/a$11,022$232,7973
10HailVery LowVery Low$2,636$3,496$71,380$77,51347
11Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$30,799$24$46,529$77,353180
12LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$6,074n/a$8,206$14,2800No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$5,184$2$649$5,8350No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14AvalancheVery LowVery Low$0n/a$80$800No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$019

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and wildfire records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 9757 (Very Low, 14.0); tract 9755 (Very Low, 13.7); tract 9752 (Very Low, 10.7)
Earthquaketract 9759.01 (Relatively Low, 51.2); tract 9754.01 (Relatively Low, 46.6); tract 9759.02 (Relatively Low, 44.7)
Hurricanetract 9756 (Relatively Low, 72.2); tract 9755 (Relatively Low, 72.1); tract 9757 (Relatively Low, 71.1)
Landslidetract 9752 (Relatively Moderate, 95.7); tract 9751 (Relatively Low, 95.3); tract 9756 (Relatively Low, 94.4)
Tornadotract 9757 (Relatively Low, 49.5); tract 9756 (Relatively Low, 46.8); tract 9755 (Relatively Low, 44.4)
Wildfiretract 9752 (Very Low, 63.8); tract 9754.02 (Very Low, 63.4); tract 9756 (Very Low, 62.9)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9757 is Census Tract 9757). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill21 records, 1998 to 2023 (21 zone-level)1 day to 6 days (median 2 days); 18 with a recorded value6 consecutive days, 2000-01-13 to 2000-01-18, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2023 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)19 records, 1999 to 2026 (19 zone-level)26 days to 212 days (median 46 days); 8 with a recorded value212 days (7 months), 2025-11-01 to 2026-05-31, a run of 7 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2020-10-01, $100,000 property; $500,000 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)52 records, 1962 to 20260.75 in to 2 in (median 1 in); 52 with a recorded value2 in hail, 2011-06-09Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Claremont city (8 records), Charlestown town (4 records), Langdon town (4 records), Sunapee town (4 records), Newport town (3 records), Unity town (3 records), Washington town (2 records), Goshen town (1 record), Grantham town (1 record), Lempster town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 1998 (2 zone-level)No in-season record among 2 records, so no run is shown (see the note).Countywide (zone-level records).Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson1 record, 2011 (1 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2011-08-28, damage not reported; NWS zone NHZ007Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 1998 to 2011 (3 zone-level)Ice Storm, 1998-01-07, $1,960,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars), 1 direct injury (reported for the zone); NWS zone NHZ007Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)58 records, 1996 to 2023 (7 zone-level)Flood, 2005-10-08, $3,000,000 property; $200,000 crops (2005 dollars), 2 direct deaths (reported for the zone); NWS zone NHZ007Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Claremont city (15 records), Lempster town (4 records), Langdon town (3 records), Newport town (3 records), Washington town (3 records), Sunapee town (2 records), Acworth town (1 record), Charlestown town (1 record), Goshen town (1 record), Grantham town (1 record); and 3 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file). Zone-level records (7) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)6 records, 2002 to 2007Lightning, 2007-07-06, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sunapee town (4 records), Claremont city (1 record), Washington town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)44 records, 1996 to 2022 (44 zone-level)34 kt (39 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 17 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2012-10-29; NWS zone NHZ007Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)158 records, 1960 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 90 kt (104 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 136 with a recorded value90 kt (104 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1989-07-07Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-07-16, $5,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Claremont city (31 records), Charlestown town (11 records), Lempster town (8 records), Newport town (8 records), Plainfield town (7 records), Unity town (7 records), Langdon town (6 records), Sunapee town (6 records), Grantham town (4 records), Washington town (4 records); and 2 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)7 records, 1955 to 2022F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 7 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1962-07-09, 3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide, $2,500 property; crops not recorded (1962 dollars)Tornado, 1999-08-13, $100,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)180 records, 1996 to 2026 (180 zone-level)No damage reported in 180 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 33 declarations covering 26 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-07-102024-04-03DR-4799-NHMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and FloodingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2023-09-142023-07-09DR-4740-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$7,135,955.97within last 5 years
2021-10-042021-07-29DR-4624-NHMajor disasterSevere Storm and FloodingInland Flooding$8,495,767.96within last 5 years
2020-04-032020-01-20DR-4516-NHMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$722,401.71
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3445-NHEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4516
2018-01-022017-10-29DR-4355-NHMajor disasterSevere Storm and FloodingInland Flooding$120,040.74
2013-08-022013-06-26DR-4139-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$665,797.02
2013-03-192013-02-08DR-4105-NHMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and SnowstormWinter Weather$106,020.87
2012-11-282012-10-26DR-4095-NHMajor disasterHurricane SandyHurricane$9,226.88
2012-10-302012-10-26EM-3360-NHEmergencyHurricane SandyHurricane$10,940.67same incident as DR-4095
2011-11-012011-10-29EM-3344-NHEmergencySevere StormHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2011-09-032011-08-26DR-4026-NHMajor disasterTropical Storm IreneHurricane$601,906.28
2011-08-272011-08-26EM-3333-NHEmergencyHurricane IreneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4026
2010-03-292010-02-23DR-1892-NHMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$86,620.33
2009-01-022008-12-11DR-1812-NHMajor disasterSevere Winter StormIce Storm$478,420.77
2008-12-132008-12-11EM-3297-NHEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1812
2007-04-272007-04-15DR-1695-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$951,673.53
2005-10-262005-10-07DR-1610-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,594,333.65
2005-09-192005-08-29EM-3258-NHEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-04-282005-03-11EM-3211-NHEmergencyRecord SnowWinter Weather$61,297.71
2005-03-302005-02-10EM-3208-NHEmergencyRecord SnowWinter Weather$64,156.53
2005-03-302005-01-22EM-3207-NHEmergencyRecord and/or Near Record SnowWinter Weather$46,064.54
2004-01-152003-12-06EM-3193-NHEmergencySnowWinter Weather$80,981.22
2003-09-122003-07-21DR-1489-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$81,984.07
1998-07-021998-06-12DR-1231-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1998-01-151998-01-07DR-1199-NHMajor disasterSevere Ice Storm, Rains and High WindsIce Storm; Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1996-10-291996-10-20DR-1144-NHMajor disasterFall Northeaster RainstormInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-031995-10-20DR-1077-NHMajor disasterExcessive Rainfall, High Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-161993-03-13EM-3101-NHEmergencyBlizzards, High Winds & Record SnowfallWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1990-08-291990-08-07DR-876-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1987-04-161987-03-30DR-789-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1986-08-271986-07-29DR-771-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms, FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-07-111973-07-11DR-399-NHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1953-07-021953-07-02DR-11-NHMajor disasterForest FireWildfire

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave22201996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought19801996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail521301955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane1021996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm3021996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding5819151996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning6001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind2023821955 to 2026-06-30Includes 16 High Wind and 28 Strong Wind records.
Tornado7111950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather18020101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-11-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2022-11-30Strong Wind48 kt (55 mph) estimated gust$15,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)1, 0NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2015-07-19Thunderstorm Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)1, 0PUCKERSHIREdeaths or injuries recorded
2012-10-29High Wind70 kt (81 mph) measured gust$153,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2011-08-28Tropical Stormdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2011-06-09Hail2 in$0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0WASHINGTONB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2007-07-06Lightning$100,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0SUNAPEEB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2005-10-08Flood$3,000,000 property; $200,000 crops (zone total, 2005 dollars)2, 0NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2000-01-13Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1998-01-07Ice Storm$1,960,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 1NWS zone NHZ007 (SULLIVAN), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
1989-07-07Thunderstorm Wind90 kt (104 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1962-07-09TornadoF2, 3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$2,500 property; crops not recorded (1962 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (552 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave2.11event-days per yearabout 2.11 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)402005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNRI models no drought event-days here (2000 to 2025, 25.25 years; D3 and D4 only); Storm Events has a record in 4 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which counts D2 drought that NRI leaves out.
Earthquake0.00124annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.124%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.97events per yearabout 1.97 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)74.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave2.11event-days per yearabout 2.11 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)392005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0579events per yearabout 1 in 17 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)141851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.873event-days per yearabout 0.873 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)591946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.36event-days per yearabout 1.36 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)381996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide1.06events per year (modeled)about 1.06 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning21days per year with a strikeabout 21 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.03events per yearabout 1.03 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)401986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0714events per yearabout 1 in 14 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000143annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00143%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather19.2event-days per yearabout 19.2 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 30 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (100%)3652005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202529300.967
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025126304.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche3 of 1110.713.714.0Very Low 3, Not Applicable 8
Cold Wave11 of 1147.051.064.4Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 1
Drought0 of 11No Rating 11
Earthquake11 of 1127.640.051.2Relatively Low 5, Very Low 6
Hail11 of 1143.347.457.8Relatively Low 11
Heat Wave11 of 1135.038.956.6Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 10
Hurricane11 of 1162.767.072.2Relatively Low 11
Ice Storm11 of 1167.880.191.2Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 1
Inland Flooding11 of 1157.971.192.0Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 7
Landslide11 of 1176.690.095.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 2
Lightning11 of 1169.474.188.5Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 7
Strong Wind11 of 1151.660.571.7Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 1
Tornado11 of 1130.034.949.5Relatively Low 11
Wildfire11 of 1148.859.663.8Very Low 11
Winter Weather11 of 1164.871.180.6Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 10

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Claremont cityCityApproved, expires 2027-03-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$1,359,302.5255 total; 4 since its planIncludes $197,533.09 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4516-NH).
Acworth townTownApproved, expires 2030-09-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$11,340,168.163 total; 0 since its plan
Charlestown townTownApproved, expires 2031-08-11FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$523,247.4516 total; not yet covered
Cornish townTownApproved, expires 2029-03-25FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$160,473.720 total; 0 since its plan
Goshen townTownApproved, expires 2026-12-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,165,897.054 total; 0 since its plan
Grantham townTownApproved, expires 2031-08-11FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$64,078.496 total; not yet covered
Langdon townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$114,289.0113 total; 0 since its plan
Lempster townTownApproved, expires 2030-07-23FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,024,815.3613 total; 0 since its plan
Newport townTownApproved, expires 2027-03-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$804,324.9414 total; 3 since its planIncludes $68,795.92 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4516-NH).
Plainfield townTownApproved, expires 2029-10-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$295,617.648 total; 0 since its plan
Springfield townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$102,006.731 total; 0 since its plan
Sunapee townTownApproved, expires 2027-07-21FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$637,86616 total; 2 since its plan
Unity townTownApproved, expires 2030-07-23FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,727,915.0511 total; 0 since its planIncludes $3,757.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4516-NH).
Washington townTownApproved, expires 2027-01-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,446,714.7310 total; 2 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$0n/aunder 1$0n/a$80building exposure is 0 in NRI
Cold Wave$8,176,774,187$24,852,69343,048$71$4,492$678,209under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$14,157,455,133n/a43,063$201,797n/a$33,3810.00143%
Hail$8,176,777,606$24,852,69343,048$2,636$3,496$71,380under 0.0001%
Heat Wave$8,176,774,187$24,852,69343,048under $1$14,038$347,235under 0.0001%
Hurricane$8,171,994,294$24,852,29843,024$494,830$41,323$25,1540.00606%
Ice Storm$8,176,774,187n/a43,048$221,775n/a$11,0220.00271%
Inland Flooding$8,127,710,599$4,447,4231,401$11,448,550$15,660$238,238n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$526,660,089n/a2,893$6,074n/a$8,2060.00115%
Lightning$8,176,777,606n/a43,048$18,561n/a$305,0910.000227%
Strong Wind$8,176,777,606$24,852,69343,048$55,721$871$238,8680.000681%
Tornado$8,176,777,606$24,852,69343,048$152,806$213$229,6540.00187%
Wildfire$4,502,413,569$16,837,80824,826$5,184$2$6490.000115%
Winter Weather$8,176,774,187$24,852,69343,048$30,799$24$46,5290.000377%

Totals since the plan: not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population43,048
Building value (total, not at risk)$8,176,777,606
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$24,852,693
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$12,718,925
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$2,233,697
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition3Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0030300
of which: Claremont city0020200
of which: Newport town0010100

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Claremont city3301540020200
Acworth town3301520000000
Charlestown town3301530000000
Cornish town3301550000000
Goshen town3301570000000
Grantham town3301580000000
Langdon town3301590000000
Lempster town3301600000000
Newport town3301610010100
Plainfield town3301620000000
Springfield town3301630000000
Sunapee town3301640000000
Unity town3301650000000
Washington town3301660000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0010100
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0020200
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 3 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Sullivan County, NH: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 33019). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nh/33019/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org