Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Valley County, NE

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
31175
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-06-03. Plan: Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284), approved 2022-06-03.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-06-03: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident) and 76 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hail ($3,191,934 a year), Drought ($1,673,524) and Inland Flooding ($1,590,044).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-06-03
Plan:
Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284)
Approved:
2022-06-03
Days to expiry:
246
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-06-03)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4662-NE (Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds)
Storm Events records since approval:
76 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Valley CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-06-03Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284)2022-06-032027-06-03246this jurisdiction approved 2022-08-01
Arcadia villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-06-03Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284)2022-06-032027-06-03246this jurisdiction approved 2022-08-23
Elyria villageVillagePlan 108284 approved 2022-06-03, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleLower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284), pending adoption here2022-06-03 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-06-03 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
North Loup villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-06-03Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284)2022-06-032027-06-03246this jurisdiction approved 2022-08-23
Ord cityCityApproved, expires 2027-06-03Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284)2022-06-032027-06-03246this jurisdiction approved 2022-08-23
Arcadia Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2027-06-03Lower Loup NRD (FEMA plan 108284)2022-06-032027-06-03246this jurisdiction approved 2022-08-23

Plan 108284 lists 58 other participants not on this page, 2 of them not covered by it yet (named in the Excel file).

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1HailRelatively HighRelatively High$543,895$2,635,893$12,146$3,191,934180
2DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$1,673,524n/a$1,673,52454
3Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$1,558,955$30,348$741$1,590,0449
4Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$268,895$1,089,562$44,381$1,402,838128Includes 54 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$354,649$13,316$178,822$546,78714
6Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$216$2,804$173,690$176,71113Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
7WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$132,477$229$3,199$135,9051
8Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$49,011$1,095$50,636$100,742108
9Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$78,294n/a$2,199$80,4935
10LightningVery LowVery Low$5,231n/a$56,383$61,6152
11Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$2,034$4$13,055$15,0932
12EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$7,133n/a$927$8,060Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$75n/a$41$1160No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3245-NE names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9714 (Very Low, 20.4); tract 9713 (Very Low, 12.8)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9713 (Relatively Low, 81.0); tract 9714 (Very Low, 66.0)
Tornadotract 9714 (Relatively High, 87.4); tract 9713 (Relatively High, 81.6)
Wildfiretract 9713 (Relatively Moderate, 94.7); tract 9714 (Relatively Moderate, 90.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9714 is Census Tract 9714). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill11 records, 1996 to 2025 (11 zone-level)1 day to 10 days (median 4 days); 11 with a recorded value10 consecutive days, 2024-01-11 to 2024-01-20, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage2 records, 2006 to 2007 (2 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2007-04-03, $25,000 crop damage (2007 dollars); NWS zone NEZ039Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)54 records, 2000 to 2026 (54 zone-level)29 days to 448 days (median 133 days); 9 with a recorded value448 days (about 14.7 months), 2012-07-10 to 2013-09-30, a run of 15 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2002-12-01, property not reported; $20,000,000 crops (zone total, 2002 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)201 records, 1956 to 20250.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 201 with a recorded value3 in hail, 1980-06-14; same size also recorded on 1956-06-23Hail, 2014-07-09, $1,000,000 property; $7,000,000 crops (2014 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ord city (71 records), Arcadia village (52 records), Elyria village (36 records), North Loup village (20 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 2011 to 2023 (2 zone-level)7 days to 9 days (median 8 days); 2 with a recorded value9 consecutive days, 2011-07-15 to 2011-07-23, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 1997 to 2007 (5 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2006-12-29, $200,000 property; $0 crops (2006 dollars); NWS zone NEZ039Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)9 records, 2007 to 2019Flash Flood, 2019-03-13, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Arcadia village (4 records), North Loup village (4 records), Ord city (2 records), Elyria village (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)2 records, 2007 to 2015Lightning, 2015-07-17, $20,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ord city (2 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)54 records, 1997 to 2026 (54 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 66 kt (76 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 51 with a recorded value66 kt (76 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2020-12-23; NWS zone NEZ039High Wind, 2017-10-26, $25,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (zone total, 2017 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)106 records, 1959 to 202550 kt (58 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 89 with a recorded value87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2013-07-24Thunderstorm Wind, 2022-05-12, $1,500,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2022 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ord city (26 records), Arcadia village (11 records), North Loup village (8 records), Elyria village (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)25 records, 1953 to 2018F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median between F/EF0 and F/EF1); 24 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1953-06-07, 15 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 440 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars), 11 direct deathsTornado, 1999-06-03, $1,500,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Arcadia village (6 records), Ord city (5 records), North Loup village (2 records), Elyria village (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2016 (1 zone-level)Wildfire, 2016-12-21, $5,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars); NWS zone NEZ039Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)108 records, 1996 to 2026 (108 zone-level)Blizzard, 2018-04-13, $750,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars); NWS zone NEZ039Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 18 declarations covering 15 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2022-07-272022-05-12DR-4662-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind$541,393.99new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-04-042020-01-20DR-4521-NEMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3483-NEEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4521
2019-03-212019-03-09DR-4420-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Winter Weather$9,876,541.73
2018-06-292018-04-13DR-4375-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line WindsWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$2,208,618.29
2017-06-262017-04-29DR-4321-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind; Winter Weather$718,335.97
2014-07-282014-06-01DR-4185-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2010-07-152010-06-01DR-1924-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$8,754,405.47
2010-04-212010-03-06DR-1902-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Ice Jams, and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
2008-06-202008-05-22DR-1770-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$18,304.66
2007-07-242007-05-28DR-1714-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$72,678.01
2007-01-072006-12-19DR-1674-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weather$1,490,792.64
2006-01-262005-11-27DR-1627-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$260,495.59
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3245-NEEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacueesHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-07-212003-06-09DR-1480-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and TornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded
1994-05-091994-04-10DR-1027-NEMajor disasterSevere Snow and Ice StormWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Ice Stormno Public Assistance recorded
1978-03-241978-03-24DR-552-NEMajor disasterStorms, Ice Jams, Snowmelt & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1966-08-311966-08-31DR-221-NEMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-07-201964-07-20DR-174-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-07-171963-07-17DR-156-NEMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-09-051962-09-05DR-134-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1962-05-101962-05-10DR-131-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1960-04-041960-04-04DR-98-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 2 rows, $9,676.41

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-1878-NE2010-02-25Severe Winter Storms and SnowstormLoup Valleys Rural Public Power District$5,390.88
DR-1517-NE2004-05-25Severe Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingLoup Valleys Rural Public Power District$4,285.53

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Nebraska county: 7 rows, $3,747,676.55; listed on the Nebraska state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave13303001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought5424428001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail2019513001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2101001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm5000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding9000801996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind160241234511955 to 2026-06-30Includes 54 High Wind records.
Tornado25000301950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather10815116601996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-01-11Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ039 (VALLEY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2020-12-23High Wind66 kt (76 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ039 (VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2019-03-13Flash Flood$2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)0, 0NORTH LOUPB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2018-04-13Blizzard$750,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2018 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ039 (VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2016-12-21Wildfire$5,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ039 (VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2013-07-24Thunderstorm Wind87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust$150,000 property; $2,000,000 crops (2013 dollars)0, 0NORTH LOUPB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2012-07-10Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ039 (VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2007-04-03Frost/Freeze$0 property; $25,000 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ039 (VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
1980-06-14Hail3 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1960-08-05TornadoF3, 10.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 150 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1960 dollars)1, 2location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1959-05-28TornadoF2, 6.4 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 250 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1959 dollars)0, 2location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1953-06-07TornadoF4, 15 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 440 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars)11, 0location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (580 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave5.53event-days per yearabout 5.53 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)1052005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought31.6event-days per yearabout 31.6 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)8052000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000514annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0514%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail6.21events per yearabout 6.21 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)236.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave4.16event-days per yearabout 4.16 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)682005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.401event-days per yearabout 0.401 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)271946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.25event-days per yearabout 0.25 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)71996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.354events per year (modeled)about 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning42.2days per year with a strikeabout 42.2 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.42events per yearabout 2.42 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)921986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.386events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00125annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.125%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather14.5event-days per yearabout 14.5 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 29 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (96.7%)2762005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025106303.53
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202513300.433
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202561302.03
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202513300.433
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202513300.433
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave2 of 259.765.871.9Relatively Moderate 2
Drought2 of 294.797.199.6Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Earthquake2 of 212.816.620.4Very Low 2
Hail2 of 298.999.5100.0Very High 2
Heat Wave2 of 27.910.713.6Very Low 2
Hurricane0 of 2Not Applicable 2
Ice Storm2 of 290.792.494.1Relatively High 2
Inland Flooding2 of 251.965.078.1Relatively Moderate 2
Landslide2 of 266.073.581.0Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Lightning2 of 276.182.388.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Strong Wind2 of 297.998.999.9Very High 2
Tornado2 of 281.684.587.4Relatively High 2
Wildfire2 of 290.792.794.7Relatively Moderate 2
Winter Weather2 of 298.198.598.9Very High 2

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 83% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Strong Wind: Agriculture is 78% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 2 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 2.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Valley CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-06-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,053,686.660 total; 0 since its plan
Arcadia villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-06-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$33,758.4973 total; 3 since its plan
Elyria villageVillagePlan 108284 approved 2022-06-03, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$16,29041 total; no approved plan
North Loup villageVillageApproved, expires 2027-06-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$659,247.8334 total; 1 since its plan
Ord cityCityApproved, expires 2027-06-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$531,434.80106 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-06-03county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,476,490,238$288,294,9844,059$216$2,804$173,690under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$79,591,171n/an/a$1,673,524n/a2.1% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$2,476,357,833n/a4,059$7,133n/a$9270.000288%
Hail$1,476,490,238$288,294,9844,059$543,895$2,635,893$12,1460.0368%$525,000
Heat Wave$1,476,490,238$288,294,9844,059$2,034$4$13,0550.000138%$0
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$1,476,490,238n/a4,059$78,294n/a$2,1990.0053%
Inland Flooding$1,476,240,749$21,617,952122$1,558,955$30,348$741n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$22,450,968n/a76$75n/a$410.000335%
Lightning$1,476,490,238n/a4,059$5,231n/a$56,3830.000354%
Strong Wind$1,476,490,238$288,294,9844,059$268,895$1,089,562$44,3810.0182%$606,000$0$541,393.99
Tornado$1,476,490,238$288,294,9844,059$354,649$13,316$178,8220.024%
Wildfire$359,296,093$63,490,7661,059$132,477$229$3,1990.0369%
Winter Weather$1,476,490,238$288,294,9844,059$49,011$1,095$50,6360.00332%$0

Totals since 2022-06-03 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 26 county-coded records, 26 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $1,131,000; 50 zone-level records, 50 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $541,393.99 on 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population4,059
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,476,490,238
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$288,294,984
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$8,447,639
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$536,222
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0010100
of which: Ord city0010100
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0020200

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Valley County3104820000000
Arcadia village3102240000000
Elyria village3105290000000
North Loup village3102250000000
Ord city3102260010100

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0010100
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Valley County, NE: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 31175). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ne/31175/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org