Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Burt County, NE

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
31021
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2026-06-14. Plan: Papio-Missouri River NRD (FEMA plan 107490), approved 2021-06-14.

Since the plan was approved on 2021-06-14: 5 new hazard declarations (5 incidents) and 79 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,642,546 a year), Drought ($1,476,267) and Hail ($1,371,675).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2026-06-14
Plan:
Papio-Missouri River NRD (FEMA plan 107490)
Approved:
2021-06-14
Days since expiry:
108
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2021-06-14)

New federal declarations:
5 new hazard declarations (5 incidents): DR-4641-NE (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes), DR-4662-NE (Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds), DR-4808-NE (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4868-NE (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds), DR-4896-NE (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
79 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 6
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Burt CountyCountyExpired on 2026-06-14Papio-Missouri River NRD (FEMA plan 107490)2021-06-142026-06-14-108this jurisdiction approved 2021-07-02
Craig villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-11Lower Elkhorn NRD (FEMA plan 110783)2025-08-122030-08-111,411this jurisdiction approved 2025-10-02
Decatur villageVillageExpired on 2026-06-14Papio-Missouri River NRD (FEMA plan 107490)2021-06-142026-06-14-108this jurisdiction approved 2021-07-02
Lyons cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-11Lower Elkhorn NRD (FEMA plan 110783)2025-08-122030-08-111,411this jurisdiction approved 2025-10-02
Oakland cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-11Lower Elkhorn NRD (FEMA plan 110783)2025-08-122030-08-111,411this jurisdiction approved 2025-10-02
Tekamah cityCityExpired on 2026-06-14Papio-Missouri River NRD (FEMA plan 107490)2021-06-142026-06-14-108this jurisdiction approved 2022-03-01
Craig Fire & RescueFire/EMS DistrictPlan 110783 approved 2025-08-12, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleLower Elkhorn NRD (FEMA plan 110783), pending adoption here2025-08-12 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-08-11 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Papio Missouri River NRDNatural ResourcesExpired on 2026-06-14Papio-Missouri River NRD (FEMA plan 107490)2021-06-142026-06-14-108

Plan 107490 lists 39 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,642,300$15$232$2,642,54620
2DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$1,476,267n/a$1,476,26712
3HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$273,003$1,020,010$78,662$1,371,67589
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$662,270$4,991$621,210$1,288,47111
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$731$166,047$578,735$745,51349
6Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$148,269$225,613$124,219$498,101146Includes 37 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$395,334$712$13,060$409,1060No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$7,838$6$159,679$167,52323
9Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$23,989n/a$11,782$35,7723
10LightningVery LowVery Low$4,077n/a$22,036$26,1133
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$8,007n/a$825$8,831Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$3,449$362$3,469$7,28074
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$63n/a$2,483$2,5460No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3245-NE names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9633 (Very Low, 14.6); tract 9632 (Very Low, 13.9); tract 9634 (Very Low, 10.0)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9633 (Relatively Low, 94.4); tract 9634 (Relatively Low, 90.0); tract 9632 (Relatively Low, 81.9)
Tornadotract 9633 (Very High, 94.3); tract 9632 (Very High, 94.3); tract 9634 (Relatively High, 89.5)
Wildfiretract 9633 (Relatively Moderate, 96.0); tract 9634 (Relatively Moderate, 95.9); tract 9632 (Relatively Moderate, 94.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9633 is Census Tract 9633). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill49 records, 1996 to 2026 (49 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 2 days); 42 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2024-01-12 to 2024-01-16, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Cold/Wind Chill records from May to September (a frost night, not a cold wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)12 records, 1999 to 2013 (12 zone-level)22 days to 312 days (median 167 days); 2 with a recorded value312 days (about 10.2 months), 2012-07-21 to 2013-05-28, a run of 11 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)109 records, 1958 to 20260.75 in to 4.5 in (median 1 in); 109 with a recorded value4.5 in hail, 1965-07-16Hail, 1994-06-12, $50 property; $5,000 crops (1994 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tekamah city (24 records), Decatur village (21 records), Lyons city (15 records), Oakland city (15 records), Craig village (12 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)23 records, 1999 to 2025 (23 zone-level)1 day to 13 days (median 2 days); 21 with a recorded value13 consecutive days, 2001-07-28 to 2001-08-09, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 2007 to 2020 (3 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)20 records, 1997 to 2024 (1 zone-level)Flash Flood, 1999-08-07, $500,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Decatur village (6 records), Tekamah city (5 records), Craig village (4 records), Oakland city (4 records), Lyons city (2 records). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 1997 to 2000Lightning, 2000-07-06, $30,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Oakland city (2 records), Lyons city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)39 records, 1996 to 2026 (39 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 65 kt (75 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 39 with a recorded value65 kt (75 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2025-03-19; NWS zone NEZ034High Wind, 1996-04-25, $10,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1996 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)136 records, 1959 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 78 kt (90 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 111 with a recorded value78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2014-06-03Thunderstorm Wind, 1997-06-20, $50,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Tekamah city (30 records), Craig village (14 records), Oakland city (14 records), Lyons city (11 records), Decatur village (6 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)22 records, 1950 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 18 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1950-07-15, 10 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 440 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1950 dollars), 33 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Oakland city (3 records), Craig village (2 records), Lyons city (2 records), Tekamah city (2 records), Decatur village (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)74 records, 1996 to 2025 (74 zone-level)No damage reported in 74 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 20 declarations covering 16 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-10-222025-08-08DR-4896-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Windno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-05-212025-03-18DR-4868-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line WindsWinter Weather$4,767,015.94new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-08-202024-05-20DR-4808-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$141,500.14new since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-07-272022-05-12DR-4662-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and Straight-Line WindsStrong Windno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-02-232021-12-15DR-4641-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesStrong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-04-042020-01-20DR-4521-NEMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3483-NEEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4521
2019-03-212019-03-09DR-4420-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Winter Weather$1,759,285.80
2014-07-282014-06-01DR-4185-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$254,427.67
2011-08-122011-05-24DR-4013-NEMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$637,626.64
2011-06-182011-06-17EM-3323-NEEmergencyFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4013
2010-07-152010-06-01DR-1924-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$640,358.33
2010-02-252009-12-22DR-1878-NEMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and SnowstormWinter Weather$543,396.36
2008-06-202008-05-22DR-1770-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$106,163.15
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3245-NEEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacueesHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
1999-08-201999-08-06DR-1286-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$167,590.73
1993-07-191993-06-23DR-998-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1984-07-031984-06-11DR-716-NEMajor disasterTornadoes & FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1971-02-231971-02-23DR-303-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1967-07-181967-07-18DR-228-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-07-201964-07-20DR-174-NEMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1963-07-171963-07-17DR-156-NEMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-09-051962-09-05DR-134-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1962-05-101962-05-10DR-131-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1960-04-041960-04-04DR-98-NEMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 3 rows, $41,834.48

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4325-NE2017-08-01Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsBurt County Public Power District$9,210.38
DR-4179-NE2014-06-17Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingChapman, Township of (Saunders County)$11,707.91
DR-4156-NE2013-11-26Severe Storms, Winter Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingBurt County Public Power District$20,916.19

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Nebraska county: 7 rows, $3,747,676.55; listed on the Nebraska state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave49515001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought12000001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail109818001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave23606001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm3010001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding203031221996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind17543340641955 to 2026-06-30Includes 37 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado22707521950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather74757311996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-03-19High Wind65 kt (75 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ034 (BURT), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2024-01-12Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NEZ034 (BURT), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2023-05-12TornadoEF2, 11.3 mi within this county, 1,150 yd widedamage not reported0, 2OAKLAND to LYONSnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2014-06-03Thunderstorm Wind78 kt (90 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0CRAIGB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2012-07-21Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NEZ034 (BURT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2001-07-28Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NEZ034 (BURT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2000-07-06Lightning$30,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)0, 0OAKLANDB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1999-08-07Flash Flood$500,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)0, 0TEKAMAHB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1994-06-12Hail0.75 in$50 property; $5,000 crops (1994 dollars)0, 0BeeB1-c most damaging: Hail
1991-05-27TornadoF3, 6 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,760 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1991 dollars)0, 2location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1965-07-16Hail4.5 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1950-07-15TornadoF4, 10 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 440 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1950 dollars)0, 33location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (490 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave6.05event-days per yearabout 6.05 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)1152005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought37.7event-days per yearabout 37.7 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)1,2392000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000551annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0551%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail6.54events per yearabout 6.54 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)248.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave6event-days per yearabout 6 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)902005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.739event-days per yearabout 0.739 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)501946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.643event-days per yearabout 0.643 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)181996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.119events per year (modeled)about 1 in 8 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning43.7days per year with a strikeabout 43.7 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.4events per yearabout 4.4 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1681986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.389events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00385annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.385%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather14.7event-days per yearabout 14.7 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)2802005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202547301.57
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202588302.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202515300.5
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20258300.267
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20252300.0667

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave3 of 384.486.290.0Relatively High 3
Drought3 of 398.698.798.8Relatively High 3
Earthquake3 of 310.013.914.6Very Low 3
Hail3 of 398.698.699.5Very High 3
Heat Wave3 of 358.264.066.9Relatively Moderate 3
Hurricane0 of 3Not Applicable 3
Ice Storm3 of 371.175.376.0Relatively Moderate 3
Inland Flooding3 of 359.769.381.3Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Landslide3 of 381.990.094.4Relatively Low 3
Lightning3 of 337.643.745.7Relatively Low 3
Strong Wind3 of 394.595.597.6Very High 1, Relatively High 2
Tornado3 of 389.594.394.3Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Wildfire3 of 394.395.996.0Relatively Moderate 3
Winter Weather3 of 345.350.651.4Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 74% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Burt CountyCountyExpired on 2026-06-14FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 6$773,921.540 total; 0 since its plan
Craig villageVillageApproved, expires 2030-08-11FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$29,200.6132 total; 1 since its plan
Decatur villageVillageExpired on 2026-06-14FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$82,280.8534 total; 6 since its plan
Lyons cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-11FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$23,098.3431 total; 1 since its plan
Oakland cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-11FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$135,776.5838 total; 0 since its plan
Tekamah cityCityExpired on 2026-06-14FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$70,564.0861 total; 9 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2021-06-14county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$2,464,634,019$339,590,3726,722$731$166,047$578,735under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$113,922,892n/an/a$1,476,267n/a1.3% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$4,261,303,991n/a6,722$8,007n/a$8250.000188%
Hail$2,464,658,845$339,590,3726,722$273,003$1,020,010$78,6620.0111%$0
Heat Wave$2,464,634,019$339,590,3726,722$7,838$6$159,6790.000318%$0
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$2,464,634,019n/a6,722$23,989n/a$11,7820.000973%
Inland Flooding$2,461,980,113$71,409,634121$2,642,300$15$232n/a (see note)$25,000$141,500.14NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$33,361,858n/a127$63n/a$2,4830.000188%
Lightning$2,464,658,845n/a6,722$4,077n/a$22,0360.000165%
Strong Wind$2,464,658,845$339,590,3726,722$148,269$225,613$124,2190.00602%$0$0$141,500.14
Tornado$2,464,658,845$339,590,3726,722$662,270$4,991$621,2100.0269%$0$141,500.14
Wildfire$362,537,510$62,280,3041,290$395,334$712$13,0600.109%
Winter Weather$2,464,634,019$339,590,3726,722$3,449$362$3,4690.00014%$0$4,767,015.94

Totals since 2021-06-14 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 48 county-coded records, 16 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $25,000; 31 zone-level records, 19 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $4,908,516.08 on 5 counted declarations, 2 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population6,722
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,464,658,845
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$339,590,372
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$7,063,353
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,616,391
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total1060604
of which: Burt County (unincorporated area)1060604
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0020200

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Burt County3104201060604
Craig village3100200000000
Decatur village3100210000000
Lyons city3100220000000
Oakland city3100230000000
Tekamah city3100240000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential1060604
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 5 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Burt County, NE: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 31021). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ne/31021/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org