Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Missoula County, MT

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
30063
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-08-20. Plan: Missoula County, MT Hazard Mitigation Plan 2024 (FEMA plan 109567), approved 2024-08-21.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-08-21: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4813-MT (Straight-Line Winds), DR-4902-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 73 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($19,006,978 a year), Cold Wave ($14,200,123) and Earthquake ($10,028,187).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 9.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-08-20
Plan:
Missoula County, MT Hazard Mitigation Plan 2024 (FEMA plan 109567)
Approved:
2024-08-21
Days to expiry:
1,055

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-08-21)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4813-MT (Straight-Line Winds), DR-4902-MT (Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds)
Storm Events records since approval:
73 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 9
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Missoula CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-08-20Missoula County, MT Hazard Mitigation Plan 2024 (FEMA plan 109567)2024-08-212029-08-201,055
Missoula cityCityApproved, expires 2029-08-20Missoula County, MT Hazard Mitigation Plan 2024 (FEMA plan 109567)2024-08-212029-08-201,055

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$18,590,554$1,599$414,825$19,006,97833
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$40,618$26,110$14,133,395$14,200,12347Includes 13 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3EarthquakeRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$6,556,223n/a$3,471,964$10,028,187Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
4WildfireRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$6,394,446$110$423,545$6,818,1016
5AvalancheRelatively HighRelatively High$7,147n/a$2,917,753$2,924,9006
6Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$433,550n/a$979,085$1,412,6357
7Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$167$619$674,502$675,2888
8LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$18,106n/a$587,143$605,2493
9Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively High$2,789$34$328,320$331,143607
10Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$122,010$1,689$168,792$292,491182Includes 56 High Wind and 38 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
11LandslideRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$197n/a$201,802$201,9980Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
12TornadoVery LowVery Low$25,135$21$76,303$101,4600No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13HailVery LowVery Low$27,475$1,333$37,917$66,72595
14DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$1,452n/a$1,4520Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3253-MT names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 18.02 (Relatively High, 92.4); tract 18.01 (Relatively High, 91.9); tract 14.01 (Relatively Moderate, 91.2)
Earthquaketract 5.02 (Relatively High, 94.8); tract 3 (Relatively High, 94.0); tract 9.01 (Relatively High, 91.2)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9.02 (Relatively High, 99.4); tract 18.02 (Relatively Moderate, 99.2); tract 14.02 (Relatively Moderate, 98.9)
Tornadotract 9.01 (Very Low, 15.1); tract 2.05 (Very Low, 14.8); tract 1 (Very Low, 11.8)
Wildfiretract 18.01 (Very High, 99.1); tract 18.02 (Relatively High, 99.0); tract 14.02 (Relatively High, 98.6)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 18.02 is Census Tract 18.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)6 records, 2010 to 2022 (6 zone-level)Avalanche, 2014-02-28, $319,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars), 1 direct death, 2 direct injuries (reported for the zone); NWS zone MTZ005Countywide (zone-level records).Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill34 records, 1996 to 2025 (34 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 2 days); 24 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2025-02-10 to 2025-02-13, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage13 records, 2014 to 2026 (13 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2014-09-12, $50,000 crop damage (2014 dollars); NWS zone MTZ005Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)118 records, 1958 to 20260.5 in to 2.5 in (median 1 in); 114 with a recorded value2.5 in hail, 2022-07-08; same size also recorded on 1982-06-29, 1998-05-25, 1998-07-03Hail, 2012-06-23, $15,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Missoula city (18 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)8 records, 2018 to 2024 (8 zone-level)2 days to 8 days (median 3 days); 5 with a recorded value8 consecutive days, 2024-07-17 to 2024-07-24, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)7 records, 1997 to 2025 (7 zone-level)No damage reported in 7 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)33 records, 1996 to 2023 (9 zone-level)Flood, 1996-03-11, $1,300,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars); NWS zone MTZ005No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (9) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 1998 to 2003Lightning, 1998-07-08, damage not reported, 1 direct death, 1 direct injuryEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Missoula city (3 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)94 records, 1996 to 2026 (94 zone-level)38 kt (44 mph) to 109 kt (125 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 92 with a recorded value109 kt (125 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2021-01-13; NWS zone MTZ006Strong Wind, 2021-12-23, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)109 records, 1957 to 202543 kt (49 mph) to 80 kt (92 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 98 with a recorded value80 kt (92 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-04-26Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-07-24, $4,000,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Missoula city (34 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)2 records, 1983 to 1995F/EF0; 2 with a recorded valueF0 tornado, 1983-07-20, 2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide, $30 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)6 records, 2003 to 2023 (4 zone-level)Wildfire, 2023-07-30, $300,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars); NWS zone MTZ005Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Missoula city (1 record). Zone-level records (4) apply countywide.Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)607 records, 1996 to 2026 (607 zone-level)Heavy Snow, 2001-06-04, $750,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars); NWS zone MTZ005Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-04-072025-12-17DR-4902-MTMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind (primary); also designated: Winter Weather$7,060.21new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-08-232024-07-24DR-4813-MTMajor disasterStraight-Line WindsStrong Wind$4,766,130.52new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-03-312020-01-20DR-4508-MTMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$9,006,491.53
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3476-MTEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4508
2018-10-312018-05-01DR-4405-MTMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$368,778.42
2017-09-092017-08-28FM-5207-MTFire managementRice Ridge FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2017-08-172017-08-17FM-5197-MTFire managementLolo Peak FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2013-08-192013-08-18FM-5047-MTFire managementLolo Creek Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2011-06-172011-04-04DR-1996-MTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
2007-08-162007-08-16FM-2721-MTFire managementBlack Cat FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-08-042007-08-04FM-2718-MTFire managementJocko Lakes FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3253-MTEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-08-122003-08-12FM-2490-MTFire managementMt-Missoula/Mineral Fire Zone-08/08/03Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2001-07-072001-06-03DR-1385-MTMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weather$560,685.80
2000-08-302000-07-13DR-1340-MTMajor disasterWildfiresWildfirePA not declared for this county
2000-08-052000-08-05FM-2317-MTFire managementMt-Southwestern Zone Two Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1340
1997-07-251997-03-01DR-1183-MTMajor disasterSevere Storms,Ice Jams, Snow Melt, FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1996-02-231996-02-04DR-1105-MTMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and Ice JamsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1981-05-271981-05-27DR-640-MTMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1977-08-221977-08-22EM-3050-MTEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1974-01-291974-01-29DR-417-MTMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding & LandslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslideno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-12-181964-12-18DR-182-MTMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather
1964-06-091964-06-09DR-172-MTMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Flooding
1953-06-061953-06-06DR-5-MTMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

11 Fire Management declarations (1973-08-16 to 1996-09-06) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Montana county: 2 rows, $679,475.72; listed on the Montana state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche6001001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave479014001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 13 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1183317001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave8056001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm7202001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding33003601996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind203131030221955 to 2026-06-30Includes 56 High Wind and 38 Strong Wind records.
Tornado2000001950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire6001701996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather6074615109211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-02-10Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ004 (LOWER CLARK FORK REGION), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2024-07-17Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ004 (LOWER CLARK FORK REGION), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2023-07-30Wildfire$300,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ005 (MISSOULA / BITTERROOT VALLEYS), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2021-01-13High Wind109 kt (125 mph) measured gust$2,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ006 (BITTERROOT / SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2020-01-01Avalanche$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2020 dollars)2, 0Storm Events area POTOMAC / SEELEY LAKE REGION (legacy zone code MTZ043), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2014-09-12Frost/Freeze$0 property; $50,000 crops, reported for the zone (2014 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ005 (MISSOULA / BITTERROOT VALLEYS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2014-02-28Avalanche$319,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2014 dollars)1, 2NWS zone MTZ005 (MISSOULA / BITTERROOT VALLEYS), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2012-04-26Thunderstorm Wind80 kt (92 mph) estimated gust$18,000 property; $1,500 crops (2012 dollars)0, 0MISSOULAB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2001-06-04Heavy Snow$750,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2001 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ005 (MISSOULA / BITTERROOT VALLEYS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1998-07-08Lightningdamage not reported1, 1MISSOULAB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1997-11-19Ice Stormdamage not reported2, 0NWS zone MTZ005 (SC MISSOULA/C&NC RAVALLI), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1996-03-11Flood$1,300,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MTZ005 (MISSOULA / BITTERROOT VALLEYS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (1,040 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.2events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)61994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f
Cold Wave3.44event-days per yearabout 3.44 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 16 of 30 years)event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)65.52005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought28.5event-days per yearabout 28.5 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)1,2462000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.0132annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 1.32%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.455events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)17.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave1.16event-days per yearabout 1.16 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)15.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.192event-days per yearabout 0.192 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)131946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.04event-days per yearabout 1.04 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)291996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide2.07events per year (modeled)about 2.07 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning21.7days per year with a strikeabout 21.7 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.274events per yearabout 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)111986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0407events per yearabout 1 in 25 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00661annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.661%Likely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather50.9event-days per yearabout 50.9 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 30 of 30 years)event-days in 30 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (100%)9662005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202559301.97
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20257300.233
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202573302.43
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20259300.3
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20250300
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche11 of 2987.390.292.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 9, Not Applicable 18
Cold Wave29 of 2981.093.598.3Very High 9, Relatively High 20
Drought16 of 2967.070.477.2Very Low 16, No Rating 13
Earthquake29 of 2937.779.594.8Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 13, Very Low 1
Hail29 of 2919.628.937.4Relatively Low 1, Very Low 28
Heat Wave29 of 298.729.352.5Relatively Low 22, Very Low 7
Hurricane0 of 29Not Applicable 29
Ice Storm29 of 2981.392.396.3Relatively High 22, Relatively Moderate 7
Inland Flooding29 of 298.350.681.2Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 14, Relatively Low 12, Very Low 2
Landslide25 of 2910.375.899.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 4, Very Low 13, No Rating 4
Lightning29 of 2938.862.883.4Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 24, Relatively Low 3
Strong Wind29 of 2919.931.648.9Relatively Low 28, Very Low 1
Tornado29 of 292.07.115.1Very Low 29
Wildfire26 of 2921.592.999.1Very High 1, Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 5, Very Low 6, No Rating 3
Winter Weather29 of 2959.581.890.9Relatively High 18, Relatively Moderate 11

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Missoula CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-08-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 9$7,219,363.400 total; 0 since its planIncludes $5,779,914.84 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4508-MT).
Missoula cityCityApproved, expires 2029-08-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2,430,048.5456 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-08-21county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$2,571,751n/a10$7,147n/a$2,917,7530.278%
Cold Wave$24,888,586,095$12,681,695117,719$40,618$26,110$14,133,3950.000163%$10,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level Frost/Freeze record ($10,000): outside NRI's Cold Wave definition.
Droughtn/a$4,976,528n/an/a$1,452n/a0.0292% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$44,119,550,088n/a117,922$6,556,223n/a$3,471,9640.0149%
Hail$24,888,587,396$12,681,695117,719$27,475$1,333$37,9170.00011%$0
Heat Wave$24,888,586,095$12,681,695117,719$167$619$674,502under 0.0001%
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$24,885,580,776n/a117,705$433,550n/a$979,0850.00174%$0
Inland Flooding$24,872,418,714$2,294,3762,141$18,590,554$1,599$414,825n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$860,110,159n/a4,413$197n/a$201,802under 0.0001%
Lightning$24,888,587,396n/a117,719$18,106n/a$587,143under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$24,888,587,396$12,681,695117,719$122,010$1,689$168,7920.00049%$111,000$329,500$4,773,190.73Storm Events damage since the plan includes 3 zone-level High Wind records ($318,000) and 5 zone-level Strong Wind records ($11,500): NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$24,888,587,396$12,681,695117,719$25,135$21$76,3030.000101%
Wildfire$3,201,974,358$6,659,14425,609$6,394,446$110$423,5450.2%
Winter Weather$24,888,586,095$12,681,695117,719$2,789$34$328,320under 0.0001%$85,000$7,060.21

Totals since 2024-08-21 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 6 county-coded records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $111,000; 67 zone-level records, 56 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $424,500 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $4,773,190.73 on 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population117,719
Building value (total, not at risk)$24,888,587,396
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$12,681,695
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$32,251,384
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$24,415,346
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition9Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0090901
of which: Missoula County (unincorporated area)0090901

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Missoula County3000480090901
Missoula city3000490000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0090901
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 9 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Missoula County, MT: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 30063). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mt/30063/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.