Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Lawrence County, MS

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
28077
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-02-12. Plan: MEMA District 7 Regional (FEMA plan 109196), approved 2024-02-13.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-02-13: 3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 45 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,561,185 a year), Tornado ($1,179,557) and Hurricane ($1,160,183).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-02-12
Plan:
MEMA District 7 Regional (FEMA plan 109196)
Approved:
2024-02-13
Days to expiry:
866

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-02-13)

New federal declarations:
3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3640-MS (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4899-MS (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4922-MS (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
45 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 2 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 3
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Lawrence CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-02-12MEMA District 7 Regional (FEMA plan 109196)2024-02-132029-02-12866this jurisdiction approved 2024-07-16
Monticello townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12MEMA District 7 Regional (FEMA plan 109196)2024-02-132029-02-12866this jurisdiction approved 2024-07-17
New Hebron townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12MEMA District 7 Regional (FEMA plan 109196)2024-02-132029-02-12866this jurisdiction approved 2024-09-16
Silver Creek townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12MEMA District 7 Regional (FEMA plan 109196)2024-02-132029-02-12866this jurisdiction approved 2024-11-19

Plan 109196 covers 24 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,404,158$152,579$4,448$2,561,18536
2TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$773,777$16,421$389,358$1,179,55727
3HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$711,201$429,624$19,358$1,160,1836
4Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$170,816$12,281$189,049$372,146215Includes 2 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$359,251$2,428$2,719$364,39891
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$15$191$332,320$332,5264
7Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$15,605$67,346$60,266$143,2172
8EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$89,261n/a$37,965$127,226Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
9DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$103,333n/a$103,33313
10LightningRelatively LowVery Low$8,992n/a$74,459$83,4513
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$36,051$389$9,790$46,2300No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$33,880n/a$4,982$38,8622
13Winter WeatherVery LowRelatively Low$2,648$110$11,293$14,05212
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$497n/a$70$5670No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9602 (Relatively Low, 72.4); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 56.7); tract 9603 (Relatively Low, 52.4)
Hurricanetract 9601 (Relatively High, 90.4); tract 9603 (Relatively High, 90.2); tract 9602 (Relatively High, 90.1)
Landslidetract 9603 (Relatively Low, 87.9); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 87.3); tract 9602 (Very Low, 79.2)
Tornadotract 9602 (Very High, 96.4); tract 9601 (Very High, 96.0); tract 9603 (Relatively High, 92.2)
Wildfiretract 9603 (Relatively Moderate, 90.1); tract 9601 (Relatively Low, 85.9); tract 9602 (Relatively Low, 85.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9602 is Census Tract 9602). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill2 records, 2010 to 2026 (2 zone-level)1 day to 14 days (median 7.5 days); 2 with a recorded value14 consecutive days, 2010-01-01 to 2010-01-14, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)13 records, 2006 to 2026 (13 zone-level)16 days to 93 days (median 31 days); 7 with a recorded value93 days (about 3.1 months), 2023-08-01 to 2023-11-01, a run of 4 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2023-11-01, $0 property; $950,000 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)109 records, 1968 to 20260.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 109 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2013-03-18; same size also recorded on 1995-10-27, 2005-04-06Hail, 2022-04-17, $500,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Monticello town (25 records), Silver Creek town (7 records), New Hebron town (6 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 2005 to 2010 (4 zone-level)4 days to 12 days (median 7.5 days); 4 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 2007-08-05 to 2007-08-16, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson6 records, 2005 to 2024 (6 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2005-08-29, $100,000,000 property; $40,000,000 crops (2005 dollars); NWS zone MSZ063Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)2 records, 2011 (2 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2011-02-03, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone MSZ063Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)36 records, 1997 to 2025Flash Flood, 2017-07-25, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Monticello town (13 records), New Hebron town (4 records), Silver Creek town (2 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 2006 to 2015Lightning, 2006-07-19, $130,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Monticello town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)5 records, 1998 to 2025 (5 zone-level)42 kt (48 mph) to 48 kt (55 mph) (median 45 kt (52 mph)); 3 with a recorded value48 kt (55 mph) estimated gust, Strong Wind, 2008-08-02; NWS zone MSZ063Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)242 records, 1957 to 202635 kt (40 mph) to 91 kt (105 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 184 with a recorded value91 kt (105 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-05-13Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-05-05, $1,200,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Monticello town (55 records), New Hebron town (26 records), Silver Creek town (12 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)41 records, 1968 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 39 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1978-04-18, 9.2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1978 dollars), 4 direct deaths, 31 direct injuriesTornado, 2020-04-12, $750,000 property; $2,500,000 crops (2020 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Monticello town (3 records), New Hebron town (2 records), Silver Creek town (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)12 records, 2008 to 2025 (12 zone-level)Heavy Snow, 2010-02-11, $700,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars); NWS zone MSZ063Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 33 declarations covering 27 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-06-302026-05-06DR-4922-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$76,502.96new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-02-062026-01-23DR-4899-MSMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weathernone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $103,887.07 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3640-MSEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4899
2023-08-122023-06-14DR-4727-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes.Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2021-10-222021-08-28DR-4626-MSMajor disasterHurricane IdaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2021-08-282021-08-28EM-3569-MSEmergencyHurricane IdaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4626
2021-05-042021-02-11DR-4598-MSMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2020-10-082020-10-07EM-3548-MSEmergencyHurricane DeltaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-09-142020-09-14EM-3544-MSEmergencyHurricane SallyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-08-232020-08-23EM-3539-MSEmergencyHurricane Marco and Tropical Storm LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-07-092020-04-22DR-4551-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,172,650.31
2020-04-162020-04-12DR-4536-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$645,254.64
2020-04-052020-01-20DR-4528-MSMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$37,143.06
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3474-MSEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4528
2016-03-252016-03-09DR-4268-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$61,424.08
2012-08-292012-08-26DR-4081-MSMajor disasterHurricane IsaacHurricane$94,023.19
2012-08-282012-08-26EM-3348-MSEmergencyTropical Storm IsaacHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4081
2009-05-122009-03-25DR-1837-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$153,428.19
2008-09-222008-08-28DR-1794-MSMajor disasterHurricane GustavHurricane$750
2008-08-302008-08-28EM-3291-MSEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1794
2005-08-292005-08-29DR-1604-MSMajor disasterHurricane KatrinaHurricane$3,718,322.11
2004-09-152004-09-13DR-1550-MSMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2003-04-242003-04-06DR-1459-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, FloodsInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1998-09-281998-09-28EM-3132-MSEmergencyHurricane GeorgesHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1990-02-281990-01-24DR-859-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1983-04-161983-04-16DR-678-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding & TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1979-04-161979-04-16DR-577-MSMajor disasterStorms, Tornadoes, FloodsInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1978-04-241978-04-24EM-3063-MSEmergencyTornadoesTornadoPA not declared for this county
1977-02-221977-02-22EM-3032-MSEmergencyDrought & FreezingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Droughtno Public Assistance recorded
1974-04-181974-04-18DR-430-MSMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-03-271973-03-27DR-368-MSMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1972-01-191972-01-19DR-318-MSMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1969-08-181969-08-18DR-271-MSMajor disasterHurricane CamilleHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1962-10-101962-10-10DR-135-MSMajor disasterChlorine Barge AccidentNon-natural, not counted
1961-02-271961-02-27DR-108-MSMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1953-12-061953-12-06DR-14-MSMajor disasterTornadoTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Mississippi county: 3 rows, $3,519,904.13; listed on the Mississippi state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave2101001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought13145101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail109417001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane61011001996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm2000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding363141311996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind24726739411955 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records.
Tornado4181121111950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather12101211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-05-13Thunderstorm Wind91 kt (105 mph) estimated gust$750,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)0, 0TOPEKAnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2023-08-01Drought$0 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ063 (LAWRENCE), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2020-04-12TornadoEF3, 2.8 mi within this county, 1,936 yd wide$750,000 property; $2,500,000 crops (2020 dollars)2, 3TILTONdeaths or injuries recorded
2017-07-25Flash Flood$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0GRANGE to NEW HEBRONB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2013-03-18Hail2.75 in$50,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)0, 0DIVIDEB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2010-01-01Cold/Wind Chill$300,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ063 (LAWRENCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2008-08-02Strong Wind48 kt (55 mph) estimated gust$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ063 (LAWRENCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2007-08-05Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ063 (LAWRENCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2006-07-19Lightning$130,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 0TOPEKAB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2005-08-29Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')$100,000,000 property; $40,000,000 crops (zone total, 2005 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ063 (LAWRENCE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
1978-04-18TornadoF4, 9.2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1978 dollars)4, 31location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1974-02-21TornadoF3, 9.8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 200 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars)0, 13location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (475 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.737event-days per yearabout 0.737 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)142005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought11.3event-days per yearabout 11.3 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)3152000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00127annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.127%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.15events per yearabout 4.15 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)157.5 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave13.8event-days per yearabout 13.8 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)2162005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.12events per yearabout 1 in 8 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)311851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.03event-days per yearabout 1.03 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)701946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1event-day per yearabout 1 day per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)281996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.281events per year (modeled)about 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning76.9days per year with a strikeabout 76.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.27events per yearabout 3.27 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1251986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.616events per yearabout 0.62 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00246annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.246%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather1.74event-days per yearabout 1.74 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)332005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202546301.53
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20253300.1
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025149304.97
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202519300.633
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202531301.03
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202518300.6
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20254300.133
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave3 of 353.154.456.9Relatively Moderate 3
Drought3 of 389.291.095.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 2
Earthquake3 of 352.456.772.4Relatively Low 3
Hail3 of 392.895.295.5Relatively High 3
Heat Wave3 of 384.386.488.2Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Hurricane3 of 390.190.290.4Relatively High 3
Ice Storm3 of 376.582.283.1Relatively Moderate 3
Inland Flooding3 of 362.483.886.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1
Landslide3 of 379.287.387.9Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Lightning3 of 382.385.287.3Relatively High 3
Strong Wind3 of 394.396.296.5Relatively High 3
Tornado3 of 392.296.096.4Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Wildfire3 of 385.385.990.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 2
Winter Weather3 of 367.471.073.3Relatively Moderate 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Lawrence CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 2; any 3$5,387,423.380 total; 0 since its planIncludes $7,623.06 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4528-MS).
Monticello townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$371,062.3197 total; 6 since its plan
New Hebron townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded38 total; 2 since its plan
Silver Creek townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$13,035.8923 total; 1 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-02-13county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$15,605$67,346$60,2660.000577%$0
Droughtn/a$3,146,112n/an/a$103,333n/a3.28% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$4,914,308,458n/a12,016$89,261n/a$37,9650.00182%
Hail$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$359,251$2,428$2,7190.0133%$500
Heat Wave$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$15$191$332,320under 0.0001%
Hurricane$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$711,201$429,624$19,3580.0263%$10,000
Ice Storm$2,704,939,606n/a12,013$33,880n/a$4,9820.00125%
Inland Flooding$2,702,766,436$18,218,679771$2,404,158$152,579$4,448n/a (see note)$78,000$76,502.96NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$32,387,986n/a164$497n/a$700.00153%
Lightning$2,704,939,606n/a12,013$8,992n/a$74,4590.000332%
Strong Wind$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$170,816$12,281$189,0490.00631%$3,032,000$10,000$76,502.96Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level Strong Wind record ($10,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$773,777$16,421$389,3580.0286%$249,000$76,502.96
Wildfire$181,965,300$21,594,8402,698$36,051$389$9,7900.0198%
Winter Weather$2,704,939,606$117,431,79212,013$2,648$110$11,293under 0.0001%$0no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)

Totals since 2024-02-13 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 40 county-coded records, 40 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $3,359,500; 5 zone-level records, 5 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $20,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $76,502.96 on 3 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population12,013
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,704,939,606
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$117,431,792
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,390,854
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,136,078
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0221310
of which: Lawrence County (unincorporated area)0221310
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file1141403

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Lawrence County2802720221310
Monticello town2802250000000
New Hebron town2803170000000
Silver Creek town2802260000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0221310
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 2 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Lawrence County, MS: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 28077). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ms/28077/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org