Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Covington County, MS

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
28031
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-04-30. Plan: MEMA District 8 Regional (FEMA plan 110507), approved 2025-05-01.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-05-01: 4 new hazard declarations (3 incidents) and 16 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hurricane ($3,353,111 a year), Inland Flooding ($3,240,317) and Tornado ($1,199,304).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-04-30
Plan:
MEMA District 8 Regional (FEMA plan 110507)
Approved:
2025-05-01
Days to expiry:
1,308

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-05-01)

New federal declarations:
4 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): DR-4874-MS (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), EM-3640-MS (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4899-MS (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4930-MS (Tropical Storm Arthur)
Storm Events records since approval:
16 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 9
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Covington County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-04-30MEMA District 8 Regional (FEMA plan 110507)2025-05-012030-04-301,308this jurisdiction approved 2025-05-05
Collins cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-30MEMA District 8 Regional (FEMA plan 110507)2025-05-012030-04-301,308this jurisdiction approved 2025-05-28
Mount Olive townTownApproved, expires 2030-04-30MEMA District 8 Regional (FEMA plan 110507)2025-05-012030-04-301,308this jurisdiction approved 2025-09-04
Seminary townTownApproved, expires 2030-04-30MEMA District 8 Regional (FEMA plan 110507)2025-05-012030-04-301,308this jurisdiction approved 2025-10-22

Plan 110507 covers 23 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$2,031,927$1,234,514$86,670$3,353,1119Includes 1 Tropical Depression record (outside NRI's Hurricane definition).
2Inland FloodingRelatively LowVery Low$2,987,532$243,941$8,843$3,240,31756
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$543,251$33,591$622,461$1,199,30444
4Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$27$506$552,088$552,6225
5Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$15,605$187,411$273,635$476,6512
6Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$189,351$23,664$217,198$430,212226Includes 1 High Wind and 10 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$342,175$7,888$1,912$351,97457
8DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Lown/a$257,190n/a$257,19012
9LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$11,177n/a$123,772$134,9493
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$89,437n/a$37,633$127,070Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$28,671$745$10,629$40,0450No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$25,805n/a$7,748$33,5543
13Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,911$13$16,709$19,6339
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$475n/a$64$5390No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9504.01 (Relatively Low, 61.3); tract 9502 (Relatively Low, 57.6); tract 9503 (Relatively Low, 55.7)
Hurricanetract 9503 (Relatively High, 96.6); tract 9504.01 (Relatively High, 94.9); tract 9501 (Relatively High, 94.6)
Landslidetract 9501 (Relatively Low, 88.1); tract 9503 (Relatively Low, 86.3); tract 9504.01 (Very Low, 80.0)
Tornadotract 9503 (Very High, 95.8); tract 9501 (Relatively High, 91.3); tract 9504.01 (Relatively High, 87.3)
Wildfiretract 9504.02 (Relatively Moderate, 89.1); tract 9503 (Relatively Low, 86.6); tract 9504.01 (Relatively Low, 84.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9504.01 is Census Tract 9504.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill2 records, 2010 to 2026 (2 zone-level)1 day to 14 days (median 7.5 days); 2 with a recorded value14 consecutive days, 2010-01-01 to 2010-01-14, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)12 records, 2006 to 2026 (12 zone-level)15 days to 71 days (median 30 days); 6 with a recorded value71 days (about 2.3 months), 2007-04-25 to 2007-07-04, a run of 4 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2023-11-01, $0 property; $1,440,000 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)69 records, 1962 to 20240.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 69 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2021-03-25; same size also recorded on 2005-03-26Hail, 2023-06-14, $500,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mount Olive town (14 records), Seminary town (14 records), Collins city (9 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)5 records, 2005 to 2010 (5 zone-level)4 days to 12 days (median 5 days); 5 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 2007-08-05 to 2007-08-16, 1 direct death, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson9 records, 2002 to 2024 (9 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2005-08-29, $200,000,000 property; $50,000,000 crops (2005 dollars), 10 direct injuries (reported for the zone); NWS zone MSZ065Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 2011 to 2021 (3 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2011-02-03, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone MSZ065Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)56 records, 1998 to 2026Flash Flood, 2017-06-06, $1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Collins city (11 records), Seminary town (11 records), Mount Olive town (4 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 2014 to 2017Lightning, 2017-09-23, $15,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Seminary town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)11 records, 1998 to 2025 (11 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 45 kt (52 mph) (median 41 kt (47 mph)); 10 with a recorded value45 kt (52 mph) estimated gust, Strong Wind, 2014-02-21; NWS zone MSZ065High Wind, 1998-09-27, $85,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)243 records, 1969 to 202635 kt (40 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 170 with a recorded value87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-05-05; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2020-04-22Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Collins city (54 records), Mount Olive town (34 records), Seminary town (29 records).Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)56 records, 1952 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 54 with a recorded valueEF4 tornado, 2020-04-12, 15.27 mi within this county, 3,960 yd wide, $25,900,000 property; $3,600,000 crops (2020 dollars), 5 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Collins city (9 records), Mount Olive town (6 records), Seminary town (3 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)9 records, 2008 to 2025 (9 zone-level)Heavy Snow, 2010-02-11, $700,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars); NWS zone MSZ065Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 33 declarations covering 26 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-08-032026-06-18DR-4930-MSMajor disasterTropical Storm ArthurHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingnot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-02-062026-01-23DR-4899-MSMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weathernone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $103,887.07 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3640-MSEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4899
2025-05-212025-03-14DR-4874-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,927,737.20new since last plan; within last 5 years
2023-08-122023-06-14DR-4727-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes.Strong Wind; Tornado$23,771.98within last 5 years
2021-10-222021-08-28DR-4626-MSMajor disasterHurricane IdaHurricane$10,467.58within last 5 years
2021-08-282021-08-28EM-3569-MSEmergencyHurricane IdaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4626
2021-05-042021-02-11DR-4598-MSMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$30,238.97
2020-09-142020-09-14EM-3544-MSEmergencyHurricane SallyHurricane$68,835.89
2020-08-232020-08-23EM-3539-MSEmergencyHurricane Marco and Tropical Storm LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-07-092020-04-22DR-4551-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$376,887.77
2020-04-162020-04-12DR-4536-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$5,924,150.98
2020-04-052020-01-20DR-4528-MSMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$720,899.78
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3474-MSEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4528
2019-12-062019-10-26DR-4470-MSMajor disasterSevere Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind$1,001,544.74
2019-02-142018-12-27DR-4415-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and TornadoInland Flooding; Tornado$386,534.04
2016-03-252016-03-09DR-4268-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$288,679.95
2012-08-292012-08-26DR-4081-MSMajor disasterHurricane IsaacHurricane$117,303.86
2012-08-282012-08-26EM-3348-MSEmergencyTropical Storm IsaacHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4081
2008-08-302008-08-28EM-3291-MSEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricane$2,150.34
2005-08-292005-08-29DR-1604-MSMajor disasterHurricane KatrinaHurricane$3,667,941.41
2005-08-282005-08-27EM-3213-MSEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1604
2005-07-102005-07-10DR-1594-MSMajor disasterHurricane DennisHurricane$4,158.53
2004-09-152004-09-13DR-1550-MSMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricane$2,608.84
1998-10-011998-09-25DR-1251-MSMajor disasterHurricane GeorgesHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1998-09-281998-09-28EM-3132-MSEmergencyHurricane GeorgesHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1251
1992-11-251992-11-21DR-968-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds & TornadoesTornado (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1990-02-281990-01-24DR-859-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1983-04-161983-04-16DR-678-MSMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding & TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1979-09-131979-09-13DR-599-MSMajor disasterHurricane FredericHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1977-02-221977-02-22EM-3032-MSEmergencyDrought & FreezingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Droughtno Public Assistance recorded
1974-04-181974-04-18DR-430-MSMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1969-08-181969-08-18DR-271-MSMajor disasterHurricane CamilleHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1962-10-101962-10-10DR-135-MSMajor disasterChlorine Barge AccidentNon-natural, not counted
1961-02-271961-02-27DR-108-MSMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1953-12-061953-12-06DR-14-MSMajor disasterTornadoTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Mississippi county: 3 rows, $3,519,904.13; listed on the Mississippi state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave2101001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought12104101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail69013001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave5000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane90111211996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Tropical Depression record.
Ice Storm3000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding564081121996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind25461128611955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind and 10 Strong Wind records.
Tornado564511811950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather9011211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-03-15TornadoEF2, 8.45 mi within this county, 450 yd wide$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)1, 1SEMINARY to GANDSIin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2025-03-15TornadoEF4, 3.02 mi within this county, 600 yd wide$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)1, 4WILLIAMSBURGin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2023-05-05Thunderstorm Wind87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust$2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)0, 0SEMINARY to SANFORDwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2021-03-25Hail2.75 in$25,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)0, 0MT OLIVEB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2020-04-12TornadoEF4, 15.27 mi within this county, 3,960 yd wide$25,900,000 property; $3,600,000 crops (2020 dollars)0, 5WILLIAMSBURG to HOT COFFEEB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2017-09-23Lightning$15,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0GANDSIB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2017-06-06Flash Flood$1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0SANFORD to LUXB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2014-02-21Strong Wind45 kt (52 mph) estimated gust$40,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2014 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ065 (COVINGTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2010-01-01Cold/Wind Chill$300,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ065 (COVINGTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2007-08-05Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)1, 0NWS zone MSZ065 (COVINGTON), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2007-04-25Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MSZ065 (COVINGTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2005-08-29Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')$200,000,000 property; $50,000,000 crops (zone total, 2005 dollars)0, 10NWS zone MSZ065 (COVINGTON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (478 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.737event-days per yearabout 0.737 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)142005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought12.7event-days per yearabout 12.7 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)3852000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00131annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.131%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.25events per yearabout 4.25 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)161.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave12.3event-days per yearabout 12.3 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)1902005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.145events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)361851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.818event-days per yearabout 0.818 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)551946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.25event-days per yearabout 1.25 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)351996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.224events per year (modeled)about 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning76.2days per year with a strikeabout 76.2 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.36events per yearabout 3.36 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1281986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.563events per yearabout 0.56 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00197annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.197%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather1.68event-days per yearabout 1.68 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)322005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202525300.833
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025148304.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202514300.467
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202548301.6
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202531301.03
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20257300.233
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20252300.0667
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave5 of 548.376.882.0Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 3
Drought4 of 593.395.096.6Relatively Moderate 4, No Rating 1
Earthquake5 of 543.255.761.3Relatively Low 5
Hail5 of 586.590.695.4Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 2
Heat Wave5 of 575.788.291.6Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1
Hurricane5 of 589.494.696.6Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1
Ice Storm5 of 556.268.280.4Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 3
Inland Flooding5 of 544.168.892.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Landslide5 of 549.980.088.1Relatively Low 2, Very Low 3
Lightning5 of 570.787.092.2Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 1
Strong Wind5 of 585.193.097.0Very High 1, Relatively High 4
Tornado5 of 573.887.395.8Very High 1, Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire5 of 563.284.789.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Winter Weather5 of 555.469.376.0Relatively Moderate 5

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Covington County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-04-30FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 7$9,800,687.880 total; 0 since its plan
Collins cityCityApproved, expires 2030-04-30FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$3,138,541.1683 total; 1 since its planIncludes $20,991.20 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4528-MS).
Mount Olive townTownApproved, expires 2030-04-30FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$39,408.6758 total; 3 since its plan
Seminary townTownApproved, expires 2030-04-30FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$208,803.5158 total; 3 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-05-01county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$2,969,665,895$326,789,63218,330$15,605$187,411$273,6350.000525%$0
Droughtn/a$2,810,312n/an/a$257,190n/a9.15% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$5,065,033,229n/a18,340$89,437n/a$37,6330.00177%
Hail$2,969,665,895$326,789,63218,330$342,175$7,888$1,9120.0115%
Heat Wave$2,969,665,895$326,789,63218,330$27$506$552,088under 0.0001%
Hurricane$2,969,665,895$326,789,50518,330$2,031,927$1,234,514$86,6700.0684%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Ice Storm$2,969,665,895n/a18,330$25,805n/a$7,7480.000869%
Inland Flooding$2,967,031,345$26,769,1161,009$2,987,532$243,941$8,843n/a (see note)$550,000$1,927,737.20NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$38,772,070n/a270$475n/a$640.00123%
Lightning$2,969,665,895n/a18,330$11,177n/a$123,7720.000376%
Strong Wind$2,969,665,895$326,789,63218,330$189,351$23,664$217,1980.00638%$49,000$1,927,737.20
Tornado$2,969,665,895$326,789,63218,330$543,251$33,591$622,4610.0183%$14,000$1,927,737.20
Wildfire$163,915,037$52,043,5433,619$28,671$745$10,6290.0175%
Winter Weather$2,969,665,895$326,789,63218,330$2,911$13$16,709under 0.0001%no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)

Totals since 2025-05-01 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 14 county-coded records, 14 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $613,000; 2 zone-level records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $1,927,737.20 on 4 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population18,330
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,969,665,895
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$326,789,632
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$8,257,806
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,959,362
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition9Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total1090900
of which: Collins city0020200
of which: Covington County (unincorporated area)1070700
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file1141403

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Covington County (unincorporated area)2802911070700
Collins city2800470020200
Mount Olive town2800480000000
Seminary town2800490000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential1070700
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0010100
non-residential0010100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 8 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Covington County, MS: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 28031). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ms/28031/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org