Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Olmsted County, MN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
27109
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-10-16. Plan: Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154), approved 2024-10-17.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-10-17: no new hazard declaration and 40 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($55,770,410 a year), Cold Wave ($17,154,762) and Tornado ($12,997,318).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-10-16
Plan:
Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)
Approved:
2024-10-17
Days to expiry:
1,112

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-10-17)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
40 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 6
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Olmsted CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112
Byron cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-14
Chatfield cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Fillmore County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111428)2026-05-042031-05-031,676Also approved under plan 110154 (Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, expires 2029-10-16). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last.
Dover cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-14
Eyota cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-14
Oronoco cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-14
Pine Island cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-12Goodhue County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110228)2024-12-132029-12-121,169Also approved under plan 110154 (Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, expires 2029-10-16). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-29
Rochester cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112
Stewartville cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110154)2024-10-172029-10-161,112this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-14

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$55,611,581$99,284$59,545$55,770,41055
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$6,696$138,263$17,009,804$17,154,76240
3TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively High$6,454,174$7,631$6,535,512$12,997,31815
4HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,778,529$91,127$189,878$2,059,534303
5Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$1,209$3$1,965,592$1,966,80415
6Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively High$801,523$65,613$1,016,959$1,884,095230Includes 18 High Wind and 5 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7LightningRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$112,744n/a$414,267$527,01120
8Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively High$33,202$1,785$439,039$474,027131
9DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Moderaten/a$448,275n/a$448,27513
10Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$34,594n/a$192,853$227,4467
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$29,527n/a$7,719$37,246Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$3,287n/a$13,355$16,6420No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$13,662$11$1,297$14,9702
14HurricaneNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 1 (Very Low, 28.1); tract 2 (Very Low, 12.7); tract 20 (Very Low, 11.8)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 20 (Relatively Moderate, 96.6); tract 19.02 (Relatively Low, 94.2); tract 16.03 (Relatively Low, 92.1)
Tornadotract 20 (Very High, 94.8); tract 10 (Very High, 94.6); tract 6 (Very High, 93.5)
Wildfiretract 22 (Relatively Low, 69.5); tract 20 (Very Low, 66.4); tract 16.03 (Very Low, 62.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1 is Census Tract 1). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill40 records, 1996 to 2026 (40 zone-level)1 day to 6 days (median 2 days); 36 with a recorded value6 consecutive days, 2010-01-01 to 2010-01-06, zone-levelExtreme Cold/Wind Chill, 2019-01-29, $40,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2019 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)13 records, 2012 to 2024 (13 zone-level)3 days to 141 days (median 74.5 days); 4 with a recorded value141 days (about 4.6 months), 2012-11-27 to 2013-04-16, a run of 6 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)372 records, 1959 to 20260.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 372 with a recorded value3 in hail, 1963-08-16Hail, 1999-08-09, $1,500,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rochester city (106 records), Oronoco city (33 records), Byron city (26 records), Stewartville city (16 records), Dover city (10 records), Eyota city (8 records), Chatfield city (5 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)15 records, 1999 to 2026 (15 zone-level)1 day to 9 days (median 2 days); 14 with a recorded value9 consecutive days, 2001-07-31 to 2001-08-08, zone-levelExcessive Heat, 2011-07-17, $23,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)7 records, 1998 to 2023 (7 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2013-04-11, $20,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars); NWS zone MNZ087Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)55 records, 1997 to 2024 (1 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2007-08-18, $35,000,000 property; $90,000 crops (2007 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rochester city (18 records), Byron city (8 records), Eyota city (2 records), Stewartville city (2 records), Dover city (1 record), Oronoco city (1 record). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)20 records, 1999 to 2020Lightning, 2005-07-21, $1,600,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rochester city (13 records), Byron city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)23 records, 1996 to 2026 (23 zone-level)20 kt (23 mph) to 67 kt (77 mph) (median 51 kt (59 mph)); 23 with a recorded value67 kt (77 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2021-12-15; NWS zone MNZ087Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)315 records, 1956 to 202540 kt (46 mph) to 85 kt (98 mph) (median 54 kt (62 mph)); 285 with a recorded value85 kt (98 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1975-05-23Thunderstorm Wind, 1996-05-19, $900,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rochester city (64 records), Byron city (20 records), Stewartville city (19 records), Eyota city (12 records), Oronoco city (12 records), Dover city (7 records), Chatfield city (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)40 records, 1953 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 40 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1962-09-16, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1962 dollars), 34 direct injuriesTornado, 1967-04-30, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1967 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Rochester city (4 records), Byron city (1 record), Dover city (1 record), Eyota city (1 record), Stewartville city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)2 records, 2009 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)131 records, 1996 to 2026 (131 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2019-04-10, $570,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars); NWS zone MNZ087Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 15 declarations covering 12 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsNotes
2020-04-072020-01-20DR-4531-MNMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3453-MNEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4531
2019-06-122019-03-12DR-4442-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Winter Weather$6,193,517.03
2010-10-132010-09-22DR-1941-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$659,868.03
2010-07-022010-06-17DR-1921-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$760,054.11
2007-08-232007-08-18DR-1717-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,464,486.30
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3242-MNEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-10-072004-09-14DR-1569-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,603.20FEMA's declaration record does not list Public Assistance, but FEMA's PA project summaries show obligations for this county
2001-05-162001-03-23DR-1370-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Ice Storm, Tornado, Winter Weather$209,199.05FEMA's declaration record does not list Public Assistance, but FEMA's PA project summaries show obligations for this county
1998-06-231998-05-15DR-1225-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight Line Winds, and TornadoesTornado (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1991-12-261991-10-31DR-929-MNMajor disasterIce StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
1978-07-081978-07-08DR-560-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Hail & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1976-06-171976-06-17EM-3013-MNEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1974-07-131974-07-13DR-446-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1965-04-111965-04-11DR-188-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-80-MNMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

7 Fire Management declarations (1976-09-08 to 1976-10-01) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 9 rows, $209,355.54

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4797-MN2024-06-28Severe Storms and FloodingPeople's Energy Cooperative(PEOPLE'S COOPERATIVE SERVICES )$26,794.30
DR-4290-MN2016-11-02Severe Storms and FloodingPILOT MOUND (TOWNSHIP OF)$9,473.24
DR-4290-MN2016-11-02Severe Storms and FloodingJORDAN (TOWNSHIP OF)$2,820.74
DR-4290-MN2016-11-02Severe Storms and FloodingHAVANA (TOWNSHIP OF)$21,624.95
DR-4290-MN2016-11-02Severe Storms and FloodingFOUNTAIN (TOWNSHIP OF)$3,531.83
DR-4290-MN2016-11-02Severe Storms and FloodingCHATFIELD$57,649.39
DR-1333-MN2000-06-27Severe Storms and FloodingPILOT MOUND (TOWNSHIP OF)$4,104.15
DR-1333-MN2000-06-27Severe Storms and FloodingMILTON (TOWNSHIP OF)$9,084.08
DR-1333-MN2000-06-27Severe Storms and FloodingJORDAN (TOWNSHIP OF)$74,272.86

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Minnesota county: 14 rows, $9,133,931.59; listed on the Minnesota state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave403211001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought13105101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail37212446101955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave15114001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm7001201996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding55023901996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning20000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind33881149201955 to 2026-06-30Includes 18 High Wind and 5 Strong Wind records.
Tornado40404401950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather13111827201996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2021-12-15Thunderstorm Wind54 kt (62 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)1, 0ROCHESTERwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2021-12-15High Wind67 kt (77 mph) measured gust$175,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ087 (OLMSTED), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2019-04-10Winter Storm$570,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ087 (OLMSTED), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2010-01-01Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ087 (OLMSTED), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2007-08-18Flash Flood$35,000,000 property; $90,000 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0ROCHESTERB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2005-07-21Lightning$1,600,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)0, 0BYRONB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2002-03-09Blizzard$50,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2002 dollars)1, 5NWS zone MNZ087 (OLMSTED), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2001-07-31Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MNZ087 (OLMSTED), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1975-05-23Thunderstorm Wind85 kt (98 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1963-08-16Hail3 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1962-09-16TornadoF4, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1962 dollars)0, 34location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1953-05-10TornadoF4, 10.8 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars)1, 6location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (1,033 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave10.1event-days per yearabout 10.1 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)1912005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought8.11event-days per yearabout 8.11 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)2242000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000351annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0351%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.69events per yearabout 4.69 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)178.4 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave3.42event-days per yearabout 3.42 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)522005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0events per yearnone modeledUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.61event-days per yearabout 0.61 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)411946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.43event-days per yearabout 1.43 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 19 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (63.3%)401996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.201events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning37.4days per year with a strikeabout 37.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.65events per yearabout 3.65 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1391986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.463events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000167annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00167%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather19.6event-days per yearabout 19.6 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 30 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (100%)3732005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025145304.83
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20259300.3
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025178305.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202518300.6
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202511300.367
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202511300.367
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave35 of 3579.392.797.3Very High 8, Relatively High 27
Drought23 of 3568.380.096.5Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 11, Very Low 10, No Rating 12
Earthquake35 of 350.32.728.1Very Low 35
Hail35 of 3566.380.393.0Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 28, Relatively Low 4
Heat Wave35 of 3527.954.472.1Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 24
Hurricane0 of 35No Rating 35
Ice Storm35 of 3529.149.965.5Relatively Low 33, Very Low 2
Inland Flooding35 of 3521.181.999.3Very High 5, Relatively High 14, Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 5
Landslide35 of 3524.165.496.6Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 26
Lightning35 of 3528.450.367.7Relatively Moderate 18, Relatively Low 17
Strong Wind35 of 3550.074.490.0Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 29, Relatively Low 1
Tornado35 of 3562.584.194.8Very High 3, Relatively High 25, Relatively Moderate 7
Wildfire35 of 3523.150.469.5Relatively Low 1, Very Low 34
Winter Weather35 of 3563.882.491.2Relatively High 21, Relatively Moderate 14

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Olmsted CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$222,733.270 total; 0 since its plan
Byron cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$110,931.0956 total; 0 since its plan
Chatfield cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$57,649.398 total; 0 since its planAlso approved under plan 110154 (Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, expires 2029-10-16). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last.
Dover cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$54,348.8019 total; 0 since its plan
Eyota cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$103,311.9523 total; 0 since its plan
Oronoco cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$623,925.3846 total; 3 since its plan
Pine Island cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-12FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 7no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planAlso approved under plan 110154 (Olmsted County 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, expires 2029-10-16). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. Whole community, including the part in Goodhue County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Rochester cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$551,961.64205 total; 9 since its plan
Stewartville cityCityApproved, expires 2029-10-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$769.5038 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-10-17county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$6,696$138,263$17,009,804under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$135,637,915n/an/a$448,275n/a0.33% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$74,406,442,673n/a162,847$29,527n/a$7,719under 0.0001%
Hail$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$1,778,529$91,127$189,8780.00426%$150,000
Heat Wave$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$1,209$3$1,965,592under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$0$0$00%
Ice Storm$41,722,193,939n/a162,443$34,594n/a$192,853under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$41,711,815,372$6,583,7631,543$55,611,581$99,284$59,545n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,038,500,761n/a4,016$3,287n/a$13,3550.000317%
Lightning$41,728,432,477n/a162,489$112,744n/a$414,2670.00027%
Strong Wind$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$801,523$65,613$1,016,9590.00192%$0$0
Tornado$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$6,454,174$7,631$6,535,5120.0155%$8,828,000
Wildfire$12,587,833,377$79,082,62350,841$13,662$11$1,2970.000109%
Winter Weather$41,728,432,477$276,090,966162,489$33,202$1,785$439,039under 0.0001%$190,000

Totals since 2024-10-17 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 21 county-coded records, 21 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $8,978,000; 19 zone-level records, 19 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $190,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population162,489
Building value (total, not at risk)$41,728,432,477
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$276,090,966
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$65,732,718
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$27,845,818
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0060604
of which: Eyota city0010101
of which: Oronoco city0010101
of which: Olmsted County (unincorporated area)0020202
of which: Rochester city0020200

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Olmsted County2706260020202
Byron city2707510000000
Chatfield city2701250000000
Dover city2705660000000
Eyota city2703290010101
Oronoco city2703300010101
Pine Island city2701450171703Whole community, including the part in Goodhue County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Rochester city2752460020200
Stewartville city2703320000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0060604
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 6 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Olmsted County, MN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 27109). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mn/27109/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org