Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Itasca County, MN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
27061
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-05-12. Plan: Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248), approved 2022-05-13.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-05-13: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 186 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($14,102,127 a year), Cold Wave ($13,009,951) and Strong Wind ($1,578,652).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-05-12
Plan:
Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)
Approved:
2022-05-13
Days to expiry:
224
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-05-13)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4666-MN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4797-MN (Severe Storms and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
186 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 17 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Itasca CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224
Bigfork cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224
Bovey cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Calumet cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Cohasset cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Coleraine cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Deer River cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224this jurisdiction approved 2022-06-22
Effie cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224this jurisdiction approved 2022-06-17
Grand Rapids cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224this jurisdiction approved 2022-11-14
Keewatin cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224
La Prairie cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Marble cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Nashwauk cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12Itasca County (FEMA plan 108248)2022-05-132027-05-12224
Squaw Lake cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Taconite cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Warba cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Zemple cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleItasca County (FEMA plan 108248), pending adoption here2022-05-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-05-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$14,100,907$598$621$14,102,12727
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$3,224$14$13,006,712$13,009,95158
3Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$11,705$1,233$1,565,714$1,578,652257Includes 1 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
4Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$843under $1$1,282,613$1,283,4561
5LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$14,150n/a$538,214$552,3645
6TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$297,219$193$87,000$384,4125
7HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$241,927$4,367$19,218$265,513245
8Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$24,480$63$53,972$78,515100Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
9DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$55,196n/a$55,19649
10WildfireVery LowVery Low$25,838$6$3,310$29,1541
11Ice StormVery LowVery Low$11,101n/a$2,520$13,6216
12LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,583n/a$10,768$13,3500No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$2,021n/a$449$2,470Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3242-MN names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 4809.02 (Very Low, 3.5); tract 4808.05 (Very Low, 2.7); tract 4808.03 (Very Low, 2.2)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 4804.01 (Relatively Moderate, 96.4); tract 4801.02 (Relatively Low, 94.6); tract 4807.02 (Relatively Low, 93.6)
Tornadotract 4809.02 (Relatively Low, 47.2); tract 4807.02 (Relatively Low, 42.3); tract 4808.05 (Relatively Low, 41.3)
Wildfiretract 4806 (Relatively Low, 78.1); tract 4809.02 (Relatively Low, 78.1); tract 4807.02 (Relatively Low, 76.4)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 4809.02 is Census Tract 4809.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill58 records, 1997 to 2026 (58 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 2 days); 41 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2014-01-04 to 2014-01-08, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)49 records, 2006 to 2026 (49 zone-level)21 days to 297 days (median 167 days); 9 with a recorded value297 days (about 9.8 months), 2023-07-18 to 2024-05-09, a run of 11 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)273 records, 1970 to 20260.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 273 with a recorded value3 in hail, 2025-06-20; same size also recorded on 1988-08-11Hail, 2023-07-19, $5,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Grand Rapids city (18 records), Cohasset city (12 records), Bovey city (10 records), Nashwauk city (9 records), Squaw Lake city (9 records), Bigfork city (8 records), Coleraine city (8 records), Warba city (7 records), Deer River city (6 records), Taconite city (6 records); and 6 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)1 record, 2016 (1 zone-level)1 day; 1 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2016-07-20, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)6 records, 1997 to 2013 (6 zone-level)No damage reported in 6 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)27 records, 1999 to 2025Flash Flood, 2022-08-16, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Grand Rapids city (6 records), Nashwauk city (3 records), La Prairie city (2 records), Taconite city (2 records), Bovey city (1 record), Calumet city (1 record), Deer River city (1 record), Keewatin city (1 record), Marble city (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)5 records, 1996 to 2007Lightning, 2007-06-08, $0 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars), 1 direct deathEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Deer River city (1 record), Grand Rapids city (1 record), Keewatin city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)4 records, 1997 to 2010 (4 zone-level)24 kt (28 mph) to 61 kt (70 mph) (median 38 kt (44 mph)); 4 with a recorded value61 kt (70 mph), measurement type not recorded, High Wind, 1997-09-01; NWS zone MNZ018Strong Wind, 2010-05-22, $1,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2010 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)299 records, 1959 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 74 kt (85 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 256 with a recorded value74 kt (85 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-07-02Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-07-02, $200,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Grand Rapids city (35 records), Deer River city (17 records), Cohasset city (11 records), Squaw Lake city (10 records), Taconite city (9 records), Bigfork city (7 records), Bovey city (7 records), Keewatin city (7 records), Warba city (6 records), Calumet city (4 records); and 5 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)11 records, 1975 to 2022F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 11 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1977-06-07, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 20 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1977 dollars)Tornado, 1978-07-19, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1978 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cohasset city (1 record), Deer River city (1 record), Squaw Lake city (1 record), Warba city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2018 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)100 records, 1996 to 2026 (100 zone-level)No damage reported in 100 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 15 declarations covering 12 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-06-282024-06-16DR-4797-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$2,112,607.81new since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-08-092022-05-29DR-4666-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$203,255.85new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-04-072020-01-20DR-4531-MNMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3453-MNEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4531
2018-09-052018-06-15DR-4390-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornado$499,605.03
2012-07-062012-06-14DR-4069-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$278,096.46
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3242-MNEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-06-142002-06-09DR-1419-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$358,879.92
1999-07-281999-07-04DR-1283-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding$1,058,507.85
1995-08-181995-07-09DR-1064-MNMajor disasterSevere Thunderstorms, Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, and HeatInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1979-04-301979-04-30DR-582-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1976-06-171976-06-17EM-3013-MNEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1975-07-171975-07-17DR-476-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1972-08-251972-08-25DR-350-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1966-03-221966-03-22DR-215-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-80-MNMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

7 Fire Management declarations (1976-09-08 to 1976-10-01) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $965,677.13

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4659-MN2022-07-13Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingMinnesota Department of Natural Resources / Region 2$965,677.13

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Minnesota county: 14 rows, $9,133,931.59; listed on the Minnesota state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave5810616001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought49181024101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail273741581001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm6000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding278081121996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning5000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind303561557211955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records.
Tornado11202511950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather10018725001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-06-20Hail3 in$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)0, 0BLACKBERRYnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2023-07-18Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ018 (NORTHERN ITASCA), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2022-08-16Flash Flood$10,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)0, 0GRAND RAPIDS to GRAND RAPIDS ARPTnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2016-07-20Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MNZ026 (SOUTHERN ITASCA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2014-01-04Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MNZ018 (NORTHERN ITASCA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2012-07-02Thunderstorm Wind74 kt (85 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)0, 0GRAND RAPIDS to WARBAB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2012-07-02Thunderstorm Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)1, 0PENGILLYdeaths or injuries recorded
2011-01-03Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)1, 0NWS zone MNZ026 (SOUTHERN ITASCA), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2009-06-28Strong Wind37 kt (43 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)2, 0NWS zone MNZ026 (SOUTHERN ITASCA), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2007-06-08Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)1, 0BOWSTRINGB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1997-09-01High Wind61 kt (70 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MNZ018 (NORTHERN ITASCA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1977-06-07TornadoF2, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 20 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1977 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (834 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave17.4event-days per yearabout 17.4 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)3302005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought12.4event-days per yearabout 12.4 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)4342000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000073annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0073%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.46events per yearabout 1.46 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)55.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0.83event-days per yearabout 0.83 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)15.62005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.0612event-days per yearabout 0.0612 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)41946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.393event-days per yearabout 0.393 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)111996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.723events per year (modeled)about 0.72 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning28.4days per year with a strikeabout 28.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1event per yearabout 1 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)391986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.371events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000171annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0171%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather18.3event-days per yearabout 18.3 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)3492005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025123304.1
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202511300.367
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025238307.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20259300.3
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave21 of 2184.097.299.7Very High 12, Relatively High 9
Drought18 of 2168.080.389.1Relatively Low 10, Very Low 8, No Rating 3
Earthquake21 of 210.30.73.5Very Low 21
Hail21 of 2141.461.779.3Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 17
Heat Wave21 of 2130.767.390.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 8
Hurricane0 of 21Not Applicable 21
Ice Storm21 of 211.22.336.8Relatively Low 1, Very Low 20
Inland Flooding21 of 217.258.393.4Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 2
Landslide21 of 2134.888.496.4Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 15, Very Low 5
Lightning21 of 2142.677.697.0Very High 1, Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind21 of 2160.788.697.7Very High 1, Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 8
Tornado21 of 2115.130.247.2Relatively Low 11, Very Low 10
Wildfire21 of 2123.267.378.1Relatively Low 9, Very Low 12
Winter Weather21 of 2136.358.584.6Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 15, Relatively Low 5

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Itasca CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Bigfork cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded15 total; 1 since its plan
Bovey cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$971.6418 total; no approved plan
Calumet cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$6,403.199 total; no approved plan
Cohasset cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded24 total; no approved plan
Coleraine cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$10,498.2911 total; no approved plan
Deer River cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$17,924.8226 total; 1 since its plan
Effie cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded5 total; 0 since its plan
Grand Rapids cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$77,562.8560 total; 6 since its plan
Keewatin cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$13,560.6911 total; 1 since its plan
La Prairie cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,574.027 total; no approved plan
Marble cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$14,525.306 total; no approved plan
Nashwauk cityCityApproved, expires 2027-05-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$128,413.0916 total; 6 since its plan
Squaw Lake cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded20 total; no approved plan
Taconite cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded17 total; no approved plan
Warba cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded14 total; no approved plan
Zemple cityCityPlan 108248 approved 2022-05-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded4 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-05-13county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$12,477,348,540$10,312,55545,006$3,224$14$13,006,712under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$5,939,399n/an/a$55,196n/a0.929% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$22,005,084,569n/a45,014$2,021n/a$449under 0.0001%
Hail$12,477,348,540$10,312,55545,006$241,927$4,367$19,2180.00194%$5,000
Heat Wave$12,477,348,540$10,312,55545,006$843under $1$1,282,613under 0.0001%
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$12,477,348,540n/a45,006$11,101n/a$2,520under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$12,435,366,569$107,093392$14,100,907$598$621n/a (see note)$10,000$2,315,863.66NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$226,552,625n/a776$2,583n/a$10,7680.00114%
Lightning$12,477,348,540n/a45,006$14,150n/a$538,2140.000113%
Strong Wind$12,477,348,540$10,312,55545,006$11,705$1,233$1,565,714under 0.0001%$20,000$203,255.85
Tornado$12,477,348,540$10,312,55545,006$297,219$193$87,0000.00238%$0$203,255.85
Wildfire$2,092,738,652$4,651,43712,017$25,838$6$3,3100.00123%
Winter Weather$12,477,348,540$10,312,55545,006$24,480$63$53,9720.000196%$0

Totals since 2022-05-13 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 140 county-coded records, 140 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $35,000; 46 zone-level records, 46 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $2,315,863.66 on 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population45,006
Building value (total, not at risk)$12,477,348,540
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$10,312,555
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$14,797,669
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$16,571,112
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Itasca County2702000000000
Bigfork city2702010000000
Bovey city2709720000000
Calumet city2709730000000
Cohasset city2702020000000
Coleraine city2753010000000
Deer River city2702030000000
Effie city2709740000000
Grand Rapids city2702040000000
Keewatin city2702050000000
La Prairie city2702060000000
Marble city2702070000000
Nashwauk city2709750000000
Squaw Lake city2702080000000
Taconite city2702090000000
Warba city2702100000000
Zemple city2702110000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Itasca County, MN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 27061). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mn/27061/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org