Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Crow Wing County, MN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
27035
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-05-03. Plan: Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413), approved 2026-05-04.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-05-04: no new hazard declaration and 12 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($25,581,458 a year), Cold Wave ($8,374,084) and Tornado ($1,938,751).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-05-03
Plan:
Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)
Approved:
2026-05-04
Days to expiry:
1,676

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-05-04)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
12 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 17 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Crow Wing CountyCountyApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Baxter cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Brainerd cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Breezy Point cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Crosby cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Crosslake cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Cuyuna cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Deerwood cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Emily cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Fifty Lakes cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Garrison cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Ironton cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Jenkins cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Manhattan Beach cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Nisswa cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Pequot Lakes cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676
Trommald cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03Crow Wing County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111413)2026-05-042031-05-031,676

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$25,578,972$1,738$748$25,581,45825
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$4,439$82$8,369,563$8,374,08430
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,645,954$516$292,282$1,938,7518
4Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$282,082$2,819$937,021$1,221,922270Includes 1 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$585,531$15,784$86,211$687,526222
6LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$130,841n/a$424,614$555,4558
7Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,735under $1$528,131$530,8672
8WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$277,521$83$24,942$302,5461
9Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$23,455$140$67,175$90,77084
10DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$88,827n/a$88,82742
11Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$71,005n/a$16,471$87,4766
12EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$9,095n/a$2,184$11,279Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
13LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$1,084n/a$3,273$4,3570No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3242-MN names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9511 (Very Low, 7.0); tract 9513.03 (Very Low, 6.8); tract 9512 (Very Low, 5.4)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9501 (Relatively Low, 93.2); tract 9517 (Relatively Low, 91.5); tract 9516 (Relatively Low, 90.3)
Tornadotract 9517 (Relatively Moderate, 70.5); tract 9511 (Relatively Moderate, 68.8); tract 9514 (Relatively Moderate, 66.8)
Wildfiretract 9514 (Relatively Moderate, 93.2); tract 9508.02 (Relatively Moderate, 89.5); tract 9516 (Relatively Moderate, 88.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9511 is Census Tract 9511). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill30 records, 1997 to 2026 (30 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 2 days); 28 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2014-01-04 to 2014-01-07, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)42 records, 2006 to 2026 (42 zone-level)15 days to 316 days (median 120 days); 9 with a recorded value316 days (about 10.4 months), 2023-06-20 to 2024-04-30, a run of 11 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)258 records, 1971 to 20260.75 in to 4 in (median 1 in); 258 with a recorded value4 in hail, 2016-06-19Hail, 2011-05-10, $8,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Brainerd city (37 records), Crosby city (17 records), Baxter city (15 records), Emily city (14 records), Nisswa city (9 records), Pequot Lakes city (8 records), Ironton city (7 records), Deerwood city (6 records), Manhattan Beach city (4 records), Fifty Lakes city (3 records); and 4 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 2011 to 2016 (2 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 3 days); 2 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2011-07-16 to 2011-07-20, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)6 records, 1999 to 2016 (6 zone-level)No damage reported in 6 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)25 records, 1996 to 2022 (2 zone-level)Flood, 2012-06-19, $634,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Brainerd city (6 records), Baxter city (5 records), Crosby city (2 records), Emily city (1 record), Pequot Lakes city (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)8 records, 1997 to 2019Lightning, 1997-07-13, $1,500,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Brainerd city (4 records), Jenkins city (2 records), Baxter city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)3 records, 2010 to 2015 (3 zone-level)42 kt (48 mph) to 56 kt (64 mph) (median 43 kt (49 mph)); 3 with a recorded value56 kt (64 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2015-04-02; NWS zone MNZ034Strong Wind, 2010-10-26, $8,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)300 records, 1956 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 279 with a recorded value87 kt (100 mph) measured, Thunderstorm Wind, 2001-06-13Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-09-25, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Brainerd city (56 records), Baxter city (20 records), Nisswa city (18 records), Crosby city (12 records), Manhattan Beach city (11 records), Emily city (9 records), Pequot Lakes city (9 records), Deerwood city (6 records), Jenkins city (5 records), Fifty Lakes city (3 records); and 3 more jurisdictions (see the Excel file).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)28 records, 1966 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 28 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1969-08-06, 9.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 833 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1969 dollars)Tornado, 1977-08-26, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1977 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Brainerd city (2 records), Ironton city (1 record), Jenkins city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2026 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)84 records, 1996 to 2025 (84 zone-level)Winter Weather, 2022-02-18, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars); NWS zone MNZ034Countywide (zone-level records).

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 13 declarations covering 10 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2022-08-092022-05-29DR-4666-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$298,531.19within last 5 years
2020-04-072020-01-20DR-4531-MNMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$99,373.93
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3453-MNEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4531
2012-07-062012-06-14DR-4069-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$375,602.44
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3242-MNEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-06-012002-05-31FM-2409-MNFire managementMn - by-Pass Fire - 05/31/2002Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2001-05-162001-03-23DR-1370-MNMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Ice Storm, Tornado, Winter Weather$637,223.84
1995-08-181995-07-09DR-1064-MNMajor disasterSevere Thunderstorms, Winds, Flooding, Tornadoes, and HeatInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1976-06-171976-06-17EM-3013-MNEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1972-08-011972-08-01DR-347-MNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1969-04-181969-04-18DR-255-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1966-03-221966-03-22DR-215-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1965-04-111965-04-11DR-188-MNMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-80-MNMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

7 Fire Management declarations (1976-09-08 to 1976-10-01) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $6,666.50

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4131-MN2013-07-25Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingRIPLEY (TOWNSHIP OF) (2)$6,666.50

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Minnesota county: 14 rows, $9,133,931.59; listed on the Minnesota state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave30017001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought421019101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail2583475001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm6000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding25001801996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning8000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind30371071101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado28024301950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1101101996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather840216101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2022-02-18Winter Weather$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ034 (CROW WING), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2016-06-19Hail4 indamage not reported0, 0NISSWAB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2015-04-02High Wind56 kt (64 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MNZ034 (CROW WING), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2014-01-04Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MNZ034 (CROW WING), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2012-06-19Flood$634,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)0, 0CROW WING to LENNOXB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-07-16Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MNZ034 (CROW WING), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2008-03-07Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)1, 0NWS zone MNZ034 (CROW WING), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2001-06-13Thunderstorm Wind87 kt (100 mph) measureddamage not reported0, 0BRAINERDB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1999-07-25Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 3CROSS LAKEdeaths or injuries recorded
1997-07-13Lightning$1,500,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)0, 0BRAINERDB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1977-08-26TornadoF3, 17.4 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1977 dollars)0, 11location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1969-08-06TornadoF4, 9.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 833 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1969 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (787 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave14.3event-days per yearabout 14.3 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)2712005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought12.4event-days per yearabout 12.4 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)3712000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000095annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0095%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.95events per yearabout 2.95 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)111.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave1.53event-days per yearabout 1.53 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)252005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.27event-days per yearabout 0.27 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)191946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.571event-days per yearabout 0.571 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)161996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.22events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning30.3days per year with a strikeabout 30.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.89events per yearabout 1.89 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)721986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.333events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000719annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0719%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather17.4event-days per yearabout 17.4 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 27 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (90%)3302005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025124304.13
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202516300.533
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025244308.13
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202516300.533
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave21 of 2183.092.397.9Very High 7, Relatively High 14
Drought21 of 2168.777.693.4Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 7, Very Low 13
Earthquake21 of 211.13.07.0Very Low 21
Hail21 of 2164.274.985.2Relatively Moderate 18, Relatively Low 3
Heat Wave21 of 2117.733.656.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 20
Hurricane0 of 21Not Applicable 21
Ice Storm21 of 2127.143.162.2Relatively Low 19, Very Low 2
Inland Flooding21 of 2131.784.898.1Very High 3, Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 4
Landslide21 of 2153.483.293.2Relatively Low 11, Very Low 10
Lightning21 of 2155.374.790.8Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 12
Strong Wind21 of 2165.678.592.3Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 12
Tornado21 of 2143.455.570.5Relatively Moderate 13, Relatively Low 8
Wildfire21 of 2175.783.893.2Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 18
Winter Weather21 of 2146.860.875.8Relatively Moderate 20, Relatively Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Crow Wing CountyCountyApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Baxter cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$25,940.6841 total; 0 since its plan
Brainerd cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$271,533105 total; 0 since its plan
Breezy Point cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$19,161.331 total; 0 since its plan
Crosby cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$3,997.6731 total; 1 since its plan
Crosslake cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$15,717.890 total; 0 since its plan
Cuyuna cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$9,268.503 total; 0 since its plan
Deerwood cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded12 total; 0 since its plan
Emily cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$24,340.1924 total; 1 since its plan
Fifty Lakes cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$24,945.146 total; 0 since its plan
Garrison cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded4 total; 0 since its plan
Ironton cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded9 total; 0 since its plan
Jenkins cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded11 total; 0 since its plan
Manhattan Beach cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded15 total; 0 since its plan
Nisswa cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded27 total; 0 since its plan
Pequot Lakes cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded18 total; 0 since its plan
Trommald cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$11,194.200 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-05-04county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$23,165,546,556$24,527,05666,020$4,439$82$8,369,563under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$9,100,476n/an/a$88,827n/a0.976% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$39,478,857,339n/a66,123$9,095n/a$2,184under 0.0001%
Hail$23,165,546,556$24,527,05666,020$585,531$15,784$86,2110.00253%$0
Heat Wave$23,165,546,556$24,527,05666,020$2,735under $1$528,131under 0.0001%
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$23,052,525,010n/a65,649$71,005n/a$16,4710.000308%
Inland Flooding$23,054,834,714$218,0871,110$25,578,972$1,738$748n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$312,341,538n/a762$1,084n/a$3,2730.000347%
Lightning$23,165,546,556n/a66,020$130,841n/a$424,6140.000565%
Strong Wind$23,165,546,556$24,527,05666,020$282,082$2,819$937,0210.00122%$0
Tornado$23,165,546,556$24,527,05666,020$1,645,954$516$292,2820.00711%
Wildfire$5,765,159,384$14,486,64726,022$277,521$83$24,9420.00481%$0
Winter Weather$23,165,546,556$24,527,05666,020$23,455$140$67,1750.000101%

Totals since 2026-05-04 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 10 county-coded records, 10 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 2 zone-level records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population66,020
Building value (total, not at risk)$23,165,546,556
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$24,527,056
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$28,722,703
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$10,752,615
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Crow Wing County2700910000000
Baxter city2700920000000
Brainerd city2700930000000
Breezy Point city2702360000000
Crosby city2700940000000
Crosslake city2700950000000
Cuyuna city2709110000000
Deerwood city2709090000000
Emily city2702540000000
Fifty Lakes city2700960000000
Garrison city2709130000000
Ironton city2709100000000
Jenkins city2700980000000
Manhattan Beach city2709040000000
Nisswa city2700990000000
Pequot Lakes city2702500000000
Trommald city2709120000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Crow Wing County, MN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 27035). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mn/27035/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org