Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Mackinac County, MI

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
26097
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-03-01. Plan: Mackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), approved 2022-03-02.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-03-02: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4880-MI (Severe Winter Storm).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 26 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,516,383 a year), Cold Wave ($534,000) and Lightning ($83,971).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-03-01
Plan:
Mackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627)
Approved:
2022-03-02
Days to expiry:
152
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-03-02)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4880-MI (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
26 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 14 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Mackinac CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-03-01Mackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627)2022-03-022027-03-01152
Mackinac Island cityCityPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
St. Ignace cityCityPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Bois Blanc townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Brevort townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Clark townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Garfield townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Hendricks townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Hudson townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Marquette townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Moran townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Newton townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Portage townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
St. Ignace townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMackinac County HMP (FEMA plan 107627), pending adoption here2022-03-02 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2027-03-01 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,516,147$14$222$2,516,3836
2Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$296$4,306$529,397$534,0006
3LightningRelatively LowVery Low$10,099n/a$73,872$83,9711
4TornadoVery LowVery Low$30,083$5$10,914$41,0021
5HailVery LowVery Low$28,668$458$1,169$30,29417
6WildfireVery LowVery Low$27,833$31$2,210$30,0740No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
7Strong WindVery LowVery Low$15,593$1,467$12,055$29,11418Includes 1 High Wind record (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$3,060$70$5,824$8,95426
9Coastal FloodingVery LowVery Low$6,894n/a$288$7,1820No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$3,669n/a$637$4,306Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$41under $1$3,265$3,3070No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$2,656$146under $1$2,8030No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$129n/a$1,045$1,1740No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14Ice StormVery LowVery Low$861n/a$106$9663
15DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$00Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire, landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9504 (Very Low, 8.7); tract 9505 (Very Low, 7.2); tract 9503 (Very Low, 6.3)
Hurricanetract 9504 (Very Low, 33.7); tract 9503 (Very Low, 33.3); tract 9505 (Very Low, 30.7)
Landslidetract 9502 (Relatively Low, 90.2); tract 9504 (Relatively Low, 89.3); tract 9503 (Relatively Low, 84.0)
Tornadotract 9505 (Relatively Low, 32.8); tract 9504 (Relatively Low, 32.6); tract 9501 (Very Low, 8.4)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 9502 (Relatively Low, 85.6); tract 9501 (Relatively Low, 83.7); tract 9503 (Relatively Low, 81.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9504 is Census Tract 9504). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)0Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill6 records, 2026 (6 zone-level)3 days; 3 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 2026-02-06 to 2026-02-08, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)18 records, 1979 to 20250.75 in to 1.75 in (median 0.84 in); 18 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2022-05-20; same size also recorded on 1979-08-05Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: St. Ignace city (3 records), St. Ignace township (3 records), Moran township (2 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 2022 to 2025 (3 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)6 records, 1999 to 2019 (1 zone-level)Lakeshore Flood, 2019-10-21, $150,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars); NWS zone MIZ097Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Moran township (1 record). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2000Lightning, 2000-03-09, $150,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: St. Ignace city (1 record), St. Ignace township (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)1 record, 2021 (1 zone-level)50 kt (58 mph); 1 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2021-12-16; NWS zone MIZ096Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)31 records, 1975 to 201750 kt (58 mph) to 90 kt (104 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 21 with a recorded value90 kt (104 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-07-14Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-07-13, $50,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: St. Ignace city (3 records), St. Ignace township (3 records), Moran township (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)4 records, 1984 to 2011F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 3 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1984-07-14, 9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1984 dollars), 1 direct injuryNo event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)26 records, 2019 to 2026 (26 zone-level)No damage reported in 26 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 7 declarations covering 4 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-07-222025-03-28DR-4880-MIMajor disasterSevere Winter StormIce Storm (primary); also designated: Winter Weather$613,864.52new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-03-272020-01-20DR-4494-MIMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$9,776.58
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3455-MIEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4494
2005-09-072005-08-29EM-3225-MIEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
1994-05-101994-01-10DR-1028-MIMajor disasterSevere Deep FreezeCold Waveno Public Assistance recorded
1978-01-271978-01-27EM-3057-MIEmergencyBlizzards & SnowstormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1977-03-021977-03-02EM-3035-MIEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1956-04-051956-04-05DR-53-MIMajor disasterTornadoTornado
1953-06-091953-06-09DR-6-MIMajor disasterTornadoTornado
1953-06-021953-06-02DR-4-MIMajor disasterTornadoTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave6606101996 to 2026-06-30
Drought0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail18202001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm3303111996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding6000001996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind32011001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind record.
Tornado4000001950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather2615520211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-02-06Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone MIZ097 (MACKINAC ISLAND/BOIS BLANC ISLAND), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2022-05-20Hail1.75 in$0 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)0, 0HESSELnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2021-12-16High Wind50 kt (58 mph) measured gust$10,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MIZ096 (EASTERN MACKINAC COUNTY), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2019-10-21Lakeshore Flood$150,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone MIZ097 (MACKINAC ISLAND/BOIS BLANC ISLAND), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2014-06-30Thunderstorm Wind52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust$16,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0ST IGNACE ARPT to MACKINAC IS ARPTlarge reported damage
2010-09-24Flash Flood$18,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)0, 0MORANlarge reported damage
2007-06-07Thunderstorm Wind55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust$35,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0MACKINAC ISlarge reported damage
2004-08-02Flash Flood$40,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)0, 0EPOUFETTElarge reported damage
2000-03-09Lightning$150,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)0, 0ST IGNACEB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
1995-07-14Thunderstorm Wind90 kt (104 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0Mackinac BridgeB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1995-07-13Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$50,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)0, 0Brevort LakeB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1984-07-14TornadoF2, 9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 100 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1984 dollars)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (96 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding0.0132events per year at a location (modeled)about 0.013 per year at a given location in the countyStorm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Cold Wave2.18event-days per yearabout 2.18 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)39.32005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.000154annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0154%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.263events per yearabout 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)12.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0.105event-days per yearabout 0.105 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)22005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.0148event-days per yearabout 0.0148 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)11946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.179event-days per yearabout 0.179 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)51996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.172events per year (modeled)about 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning22.6days per year with a strikeabout 22.6 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.288events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)81986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0847events per yearabout 1 in 12 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.000912annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0912%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather23.1event-days per yearabout 23.1 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)3912005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 20254300.133
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202517300.567
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding5 of 575.577.683.8Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2
Cold Wave5 of 563.972.182.0Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4
Drought0 of 5No Rating 5
Earthquake5 of 53.86.38.7Very Low 5
Hail5 of 541.052.860.5Relatively Low 5
Heat Wave5 of 52.02.22.5Very Low 5
Hurricane5 of 530.330.733.7Very Low 5
Ice Storm5 of 52.42.53.7Very Low 5
Inland Flooding5 of 528.753.579.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2
Landslide5 of 579.084.090.2Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Lightning5 of 555.469.680.2Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4
Strong Wind5 of 518.530.739.9Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Tornado5 of 55.48.432.8Relatively Low 2, Very Low 3
Tsunami0 of 5Insufficient Data 5
Wildfire5 of 561.381.385.6Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Winter Weather5 of 540.147.354.1Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 3

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Mackinac CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-03-01FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$153,159.860 total; 0 since its plan
Mackinac Island cityCityPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$183,486.120 total; no approved plan
St. Ignace cityCityPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$267,092.927 total; no approved plan
Bois Blanc townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Brevort townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Clark townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$10,125.620 total; no approved plan
Garfield townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Hendricks townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Hudson townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Marquette townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Moran townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded4 total; no approved plan
Newton townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Portage townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
St. Ignace townshipTownshipPlan 107627 approved 2022-03-02, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded7 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-03-02county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$1,297,424,946n/a263$6,894n/a$2880.000531%
Cold Wave$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$296$4,306$529,397under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$8,717,119,258n/a10,834$3,669n/a$637under 0.0001%
Hail$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$28,668$458$1,1690.000563%$0
Heat Wave$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$41under $1$3,265under 0.0001%
Hurricane$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$2,656$146under $1under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$4,951,341,767n/a10,508$861n/a$106under 0.0001%$0$613,864.52
Inland Flooding$5,047,444,039$6,281203$2,516,147$14$222n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$68,300,670n/a122$129n/a$1,0450.000189%
Lightning$5,088,847,883n/a10,817$10,099n/a$73,8720.000198%
Strong Wind$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$15,593$1,467$12,0550.000306%
Tornado$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$30,083$5$10,9140.000591%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$941,193,447$3,793,2832,923$27,833$31$2,2100.00296%
Winter Weather$5,088,847,883$9,190,69610,817$3,060$70$5,824under 0.0001%$0$613,864.52

Totals since 2022-03-02 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 2 county-coded records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 24 zone-level records, 11 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $613,864.52 on 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population10,817
Building value (total, not at risk)$5,088,847,883
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$9,190,696
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$2,652,526
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$641,003
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0040400

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Mackinac County2615490000000
Mackinac Island city2607640000000
St. Ignace city2607670000000
Bois Blanc township2607950000000
Brevort township2615380000000
Clark township2607590000000
Garfield township2607660000000
Hendricks township2608060000000
Hudson township2608070000000
Marquette township2607500000000
Moran township2604430000000
Newton township2615780000000
Portage township2606790000000
St. Ignace township2604440000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Mackinac County, MI: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 26097). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/mi/26097/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.