Hazard Plain Automated baseline

St. Joseph County, IN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
18141
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-11-16. Plan: St. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), approved 2025-11-17.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-11-17: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 17 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($27,541,734 a year), Cold Wave ($15,894,400) and Tornado ($7,700,217).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-11-16
Plan:
St. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559)
Approved:
2025-11-17
Days to expiry:
1,508

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-11-17)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3641-IN (Severe Winter Storm), EM-3651-IN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
17 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 2 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 13
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
St. Joseph CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-11-16St. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559)2025-11-172030-11-161,508
Indian Village townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Lakeville townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Mishawaka cityCityPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
New Carlisle townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
North Liberty townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Osceola townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Roseland townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
South Bend cityCityPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Walkerton townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleSt. Joseph County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 110559), pending adoption here2025-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2030-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$27,013,158$82,799$445,777$27,541,73423
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$5,160$30,520$15,858,721$15,894,4006
3TornadoRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$4,122,082$988$3,577,147$7,700,21718
4HailRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$2,474,570$12,123$219,331$2,706,023130
5Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$250,014$12,521$1,911,004$2,173,539355Includes 14 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
6Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$18,653$2$1,488,641$1,507,2962
7EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,284,869n/a$159,123$1,443,992Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
8LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$130,507n/a$619,636$750,14212
9Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,627$824$251,125$253,576138
10Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$12,401n/a$163,507$175,9085
11HurricaneVery LowVery Low$36,448$5,325$36$41,8080No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12WildfireVery LowVery Low$8,202$2$883$9,0880No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$458n/a$933$1,3910No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$18n/a$180No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 112.03 (Relatively Low, 69.6); tract 115.05 (Relatively Low, 65.4); tract 34 (Relatively Low, 63.2)
Hurricanetract 112.03 (Very Low, 40.7); tract 123 (Very Low, 39.6); tract 124 (Very Low, 39.4)
Landslidetract 120 (Relatively Low, 85.8); tract 117.04 (Relatively Low, 84.3); tract 117.03 (Relatively Low, 84.2)
Tornadotract 112.03 (Relatively High, 92.8); tract 34 (Relatively High, 77.0); tract 115.05 (Relatively Moderate, 74.0)
Wildfiretract 108 (Very Low, 61.6); tract 112.03 (Very Low, 58.9); tract 114.04 (Very Low, 55.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 112.03 is Census Tract 112.03). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill6 records, 1996 to 2024 (6 zone-level)1 day to 3 days (median 2 days); 6 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 2019-01-29 to 2019-01-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)182 records, 1961 to 20240.75 in to 3.5 in (median 1 in); 182 with a recorded value3.5 in hail, 1963-04-17Hail, 2008-06-15, $1,000,000 property; $250,000 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: South Bend city (43 records), Mishawaka city (21 records), Lakeville town (8 records), North Liberty town (8 records), Osceola town (5 records), New Carlisle town (4 records), Roseland town (3 records), Walkerton town (2 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 2006 to 2011 (2 zone-level)1 day; 2 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2011-07-21, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)5 records, 2002 to 2008 (5 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2007-02-24, $25,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone INZ004Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)23 records, 1996 to 2023 (1 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2016-08-15, $5,100,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: South Bend city (5 records), Mishawaka city (2 records), North Liberty town (2 records), Walkerton town (2 records), New Carlisle town (1 record), Roseland town (1 record). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)12 records, 2000 to 2024Lightning, 2008-06-22, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Mishawaka city (4 records), South Bend city (3 records), Osceola town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)17 records, 1996 to 2026 (17 zone-level)43 kt (49 mph) to 61 kt (70 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 15 with a recorded value61 kt (70 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2026-04-27; NWS zone INZ104High Wind, 2009-02-11, $50,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)456 records, 1957 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 81 kt (93 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 338 with a recorded value81 kt (93 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1997-05-18Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-07-21, $500,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: South Bend city (94 records), Mishawaka city (55 records), North Liberty town (16 records), New Carlisle town (13 records), Roseland town (10 records), Lakeville town (8 records), Walkerton town (8 records), Osceola town (2 records).Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)34 records, 1950 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 32 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1965-04-11, 6.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 333 yd wide, damage not recorded (pre-1996 record), 27 direct injuriesTornado, 1965-04-11, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1965 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: South Bend city (3 records), Mishawaka city (2 records), Lakeville town (1 record), New Carlisle town (1 record), Osceola town (1 record), Roseland town (1 record), Walkerton town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)138 records, 1997 to 2026 (138 zone-level)No damage reported in 138 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 17 declarations covering 14 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-08-152026-08-11EM-3651-INEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornadonot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-01-242026-01-23EM-3641-INEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-04-032020-01-20DR-4515-INMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$81,685,012.39
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3456-INEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4515
2018-05-042018-02-14DR-4363-INMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$260,118.03
2009-04-222009-03-08DR-1832-INMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
2008-09-232008-09-12DR-1795-INMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
2008-01-302008-01-07DR-1740-INMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
2007-03-122007-02-12EM-3274-INEmergencySnowWinter Weather$43,522.63
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3238-INEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-01-212005-01-01DR-1573-INMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter WeatherPA not declared for this county
2001-01-242000-12-11EM-3162-INEmergencySnowWinter Weather$269,615.80
1999-01-151999-01-01EM-3135-INEmergencyIn-Winter Storm 12/23/98Winter Weather$198,340.56
1998-05-081998-03-09DR-1217-INMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1991-01-051990-12-28DR-891-INMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1977-02-021977-02-02EM-3028-INEmergencySnowstormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1965-04-141965-04-14DR-189-INMajor disasterTornadoes & Severe StormsTornadono Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
2002-06-132002-04-28DR-1418-INMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-162-INMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1961-05-201961-05-20DR-113-INMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1954-10-261954-10-26DR-30-INMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6002001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1820020001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm5000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding23002711996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning12002001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind47371592111955 to 2026-06-30Includes 14 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records.
Tornado34103311950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather1389431711996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-04-27High Wind61 kt (70 mph) measured gust$10,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone INZ104 (EASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2019-01-29Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone INZ004 (ST. JOSEPH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2016-08-15Flash Flood$5,100,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)0, 0NORTH LIBERTY to WALKERTONB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-07-21Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone INZ004 (ST. JOSEPH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2008-06-22Lightning$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)0, 0INDIAN VLGB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2007-02-24Ice Storm$25,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone INZ004 (ST. JOSEPH), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2001-10-24TornadoF3, 15 mi within this county, 1,320 yd wide$3,000,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)1, 2CRUMSTOWNdeaths or injuries recorded
1997-05-18Thunderstorm Wind81 kt (93 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0SOUTH BENDB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1990-08-28Thunderstorm Windspeed not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)1, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1965-04-11TornadoF4, 6.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 333 yd widedamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 27location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1965-04-11TornadoF3, 12.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 250 yd wide$25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1965 dollars)3, 27location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1963-04-17Hail3.5 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (875 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave3.32event-days per yearabout 3.32 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)632005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought0.191event-days per yearabout 0.191 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)422000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00114annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.114%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.74events per yearabout 2.74 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)103.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave4.1event-days per yearabout 4.1 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)672005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0194events per yearabout 1 in 51 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)61851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.33event-days per yearabout 1.33 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)901946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.643event-days per yearabout 0.643 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)181996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0885events per year (modeled)about 1 in 11 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning40.7days per year with a strikeabout 40.7 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind4.61events per yearabout 4.61 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1761986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.22events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000178annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00178%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather18.7event-days per yearabout 18.7 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)3552005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202578302.6
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20255300.167
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025285309.5
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202522300.733
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202526300.867
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202514300.467
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20251300.0333

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave82 of 8252.779.998.4Very High 1, Relatively High 49, Relatively Moderate 32
Drought1 of 8270.270.270.2Very Low 1, No Rating 81
Earthquake82 of 8211.032.369.6Relatively Low 28, Very Low 54
Hail82 of 8253.373.494.7Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 50, Relatively Low 30
Heat Wave82 of 826.523.273.2Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 60, Very Low 21
Hurricane82 of 8220.527.640.7Very Low 82
Ice Storm82 of 827.525.168.1Relatively Low 20, Very Low 62
Inland Flooding82 of 821.417.765.9Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 40, Very Low 34
Landslide80 of 8212.344.785.8Relatively Low 5, Very Low 75, No Rating 2
Lightning82 of 8217.040.487.6Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 17, Relatively Low 60, Very Low 4
Strong Wind82 of 8230.960.292.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 55, Relatively Low 26
Tornado82 of 8235.755.092.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 42, Relatively Low 38
Wildfire76 of 8218.835.661.6Very Low 76, No Rating 6
Winter Weather82 of 8230.751.487.1Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 51, Relatively Low 30

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
St. Joseph CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-11-16FMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 4$342,117.830 total; 0 since its planIncludes $234,688.47 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4515-IN).
Indian Village townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Lakeville townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded17 total; no approved plan
Mishawaka cityCityPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3no Public Assistance recorded84 total; no approved plan
New Carlisle townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded19 total; no approved plan
North Liberty townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded26 total; no approved plan
Osceola townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded9 total; no approved plan
Roseland townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 2no Public Assistance recorded15 total; no approved plan
South Bend cityCityPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 4$184,920.27148 total; no approved plan
Walkerton townTownPlan 110559 approved 2025-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded13 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-11-17county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$58,760,814,337$133,858,934272,680$5,160$30,520$15,858,721under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$13,543n/an/a$18n/a0.135% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$103,996,882,174n/a272,912$1,284,869n/a$159,1230.00124%
Hail$58,760,814,337$133,858,934272,680$2,474,570$12,123$219,3310.00421%
Heat Wave$58,760,814,337$133,858,934272,680$18,653$2$1,488,641under 0.0001%
Hurricane$58,667,926,498$131,986,306272,126$36,448$5,325$36under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$58,760,767,955n/a272,680$12,401n/a$163,507under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$58,729,631,697$14,485,4052,349$27,013,158$82,799$445,777n/a (see note)no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$327,939,829n/a1,297$458n/a$9330.00014%
Lightning$58,760,814,337n/a272,680$130,507n/a$619,6360.000222%
Strong Wind$58,760,814,337$133,858,934272,680$250,014$12,521$1,911,0040.000425%$47,000$11,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)Storm Events damage since the plan includes 2 zone-level High Wind records ($11,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$58,760,814,337$133,858,934272,680$4,122,082$988$3,577,1470.00702%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$7,156,647,717$12,376,05033,109$8,202$2$8830.000115%
Winter Weather$58,760,814,337$133,858,934272,680$1,627$824$251,125under 0.0001%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2025-11-17 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 6 county-coded records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $47,000; 11 zone-level records, 11 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $11,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population272,680
Building value (total, not at risk)$58,760,814,337
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$133,858,934
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$35,503,268
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$24,695,865
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition13Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total121321303
of which: St. Joseph County (unincorporated area)1141401
of which: Mishawaka city0030300
of which: South Bend city0040402
of which: Roseland town0121200
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0060600

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
St. Joseph County1802241141401
Indian Village town1802250000000
Lakeville town1802260000000
Mishawaka city1802270030300
New Carlisle town1803120000000
North Liberty town1802280000000
Osceola town1802290000000
Roseland town1851790121200
South Bend city1802310040402
Walkerton town1802320000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential121321303
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 12 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). St. Joseph County, IN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 18141). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/in/18141/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org