Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Gilchrist County, FL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
12041
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-06-22. Plan: Gilchrist County (FEMA plan 111990), approved 2026-06-22.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-06-22: no new hazard declaration and 0 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($2,706,898 a year), Hurricane ($2,537,967) and Tornado ($399,549).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-06-22
Plan:
Gilchrist County (FEMA plan 111990)
Approved:
2026-06-22
Days to expiry:
1,726

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-06-22)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
0 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 6 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 38
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Gilchrist County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-06-22Gilchrist County (FEMA plan 111990)2026-06-222031-06-221,726
Bell townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-22Gilchrist County (FEMA plan 111990)2026-06-222031-06-221,726
Fanning Springs cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-22Gilchrist County (FEMA plan 111990)2026-06-222031-06-221,726this jurisdiction approved 2026-07-23
Trenton cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-22Gilchrist County (FEMA plan 111990)2026-06-222031-06-221,726

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$2,704,699$1,201$998$2,706,8985
2HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,528,930$890,644$118,393$2,537,96710
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$106,392$1,636$291,521$399,5492
4Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,730$221,506$153,112$376,3480Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
5LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$6,029n/a$231,282$237,3102
6WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$194,285$1,022$37,813$233,1203
7Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$5$108$150,361$150,4740No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8Strong WindVery LowVery Low$15,300$7,602$70,056$92,95885
9EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$26,673n/a$14,800$41,473Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
10HailVery LowVery Low$890$25,599$172$26,66127
11DroughtRelatively LowVery Lown/a$21,661n/a$21,6616
12Coastal FloodingVery LowVery Low$1,319n/a$368$1,6870No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$721$3$102$8262
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$8n/a$1$90No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, ice storm, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9501 (Very Low, 39.0); tract 9502.04 (Very Low, 38.7); tract 9502.02 (Very Low, 26.0)
Hurricanetract 9501 (Relatively High, 95.2); tract 9502.04 (Relatively High, 93.2); tract 9502.02 (Relatively High, 93.0)
Landslidetract 9501 (Very Low, 59.5); tract 9502.03 (Very Low, 43.1); tract 9502.02 (Very Low, 38.1)
Tornadotract 9501 (Relatively Moderate, 68.7); tract 9502.04 (Relatively Moderate, 60.2); tract 9502.02 (Relatively Moderate, 59.6)
Wildfiretract 9501 (Relatively Moderate, 95.0); tract 9502.02 (Relatively Moderate, 92.5); tract 9502.01 (Relatively Moderate, 92.0)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9501 is Census Tract 9501). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)0Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)6 records, 2026 (6 zone-level)155 days; 1 with a recorded value155 days (about 5.1 months), 2026-01-27 to 2026-06-30, a run of 6 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)29 records, 1966 to 20260.25 in to 1.75 in (median 0.88 in); 29 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2009-06-18; same size also recorded on 1998-08-08, 2003-05-18, 2006-05-28Hail, 1999-05-20, $2,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Trenton city (11 records), Bell town (9 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson10 records, 2004 to 2024 (10 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2024-09-26 to 2024-09-27, category 1, $0 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars); NWS zone FLZ035Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)5 records, 1998 to 2024 (2 zone-level)Flood, 1998-03-01, $6,090,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars); NWS zone FLZ035Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bell town (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)2 records, 2006No damage or casualties reported in 2 records.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bell town (2 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)0
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)92 records, 1967 to 202440 kt (46 mph) to 80 kt (92 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 64 with a recorded value80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1996-12-07, 2 direct injuriesThunderstorm Wind, 2001-03-29, $30,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Trenton city (28 records), Bell town (23 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)5 records, 1970 to 2021F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF0); 5 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1983-04-23, 11 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 80 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars), 4 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Trenton city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)3 records, 1998 to 2008 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Trenton city (1 record). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)2 records, 2010 to 2018 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 37 declarations covering 27 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-10-112024-10-05DR-4834-FLMajor disasterHurricane MiltonHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2024-10-072024-10-05EM-3622-FLEmergencyHurricane MiltonHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4834
2024-09-282024-09-23DR-4828-FLMajor disasterHurricane HeleneHurricane$139,920.55within last 5 years
2024-09-242024-09-23EM-3615-FLEmergencyTropical Storm HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Windno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4828
2024-08-102024-08-01DR-4806-FLMajor disasterHurricane DebbyHurricane$136,753.92within last 5 years
2024-08-032024-08-01EM-3605-FLEmergencyTropical Storm DebbyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4806
2023-08-312023-08-27DR-4734-FLMajor disasterHurricane IdaliaHurricane$1,157,691.22within last 5 years
2023-08-282023-08-27EM-3596-FLEmergencyTropical Storm IdaliaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4734
2022-12-132022-11-07DR-4680-FLMajor disasterHurricane NicoleHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2022-11-082022-11-07EM-3587-FLEmergencyTropical Storm NicoleHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4680
2022-09-292022-09-23DR-4673-FLMajor disasterHurricane IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2022-09-242022-09-23EM-3584-FLEmergencyTropical Storm IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4673
2021-08-162021-08-13EM-3562-FLEmergencyTropical Storm FredHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2021-07-042021-07-04EM-3561-FLEmergencyTropical Storm ElsaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-11-112020-11-07EM-3551-FLEmergencyHurricane EtaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4486-FLMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3432-FLEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4486
2019-08-302019-08-28EM-3419-FLEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2018-10-092018-10-07EM-3405-FLEmergencyHurricane MichaelHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2017-09-102017-09-04DR-4337-FLMajor disasterHurricane IrmaHurricane$245,538.72
2017-09-052017-09-04EM-3385-FLEmergencyHurricane IrmaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4337
2016-09-282016-08-31DR-4280-FLMajor disasterHurricane HermineHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2012-07-032012-06-23DR-4068-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm DebbyHurricanePA not declared for this county
2009-04-212009-03-26DR-1831-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$157,113.03
2008-08-212008-08-18EM-3288-FLEmergencyTropical Storm FayHurricane; Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3220-FLEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-262004-09-24DR-1561-FLMajor disasterHurricane JeanneHurricane$137,428.03
2004-09-042004-09-03DR-1545-FLMajor disasterHurricane FrancesHurricane$499,695.20
2004-08-132004-08-11DR-1539-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane CharleyHurricane$25,346.43
2001-02-052000-12-01DR-1359-FLMajor disasterSevere FreezeCold WavePA not declared for this county
2000-05-292000-05-29FM-2303-FLFire managementFl, Waccasassa Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-04-271999-04-15EM-3139-FLEmergencyFl-Fires 04/15/99Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-04-151999-04-13FM-2252-FLFire managementFl-Fires 04/13/99Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-06-181998-05-25DR-1223-FLMajor disasterExtreme Fire HazardWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-01-061997-12-25DR-1195-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-131993-03-12DR-982-FLMajor disasterTornadoes, Flooding, High Winds & Tides, FreezingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1973-05-261973-05-26DR-387-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1995-08-031995-08-02EM-3116-FLEmergencyHurricane ErinHurricane
1964-09-101964-09-10DR-176-FLMajor disasterHurricane DoraHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1964-09-081964-09-08DR-175-FLMajor disasterHurricane CleoHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1962-12-171962-12-17DR-141-FLMajor disasterAbnormally High TidesInland Flooding
1960-09-121960-09-12DR-106-FLMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-03-231960-03-23DR-97-FLMajor disasterSevere Weather ConditionsOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1953-10-221953-10-22DR-12-FLMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

17 Fire Management declarations (1985-05-17 to 1998-06-28) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Florida county: 4 rows, $9,327,951.42; listed on the Florida state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Drought6066001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail29012001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane100041801996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding5001801996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind920012501955 to 2026-06-30
Tornado5000401950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire3000401996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather2000001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-01-27Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone FLZ035 (GILCHRIST), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2024-09-26Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')category 1$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ035 (GILCHRIST), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2018-03-19Thunderstorm Wind45 kt (52 mph) estimated gust$15,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0BELLlarge reported damage
2009-06-18Hail1.75 in$0 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0TYLERB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2007-07-01Thunderstorm Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; crops not reported (2007 dollars)0, 0TYLERlarge reported damage
2001-03-29Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$30,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)0, 0TRENTONB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1999-09-07Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$15,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)0, 0BELLlarge reported damage
1999-05-20Hail1 in$2,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)0, 0TRENTONB1-c most damaging: Hail
1998-03-01Flood$6,090,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ035 (GILCHRIST), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1996-12-07Thunderstorm Wind80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recorded$12,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)0, 2BELLdeaths or injuries recorded
1995-05-12TornadoF0, 5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 10 yd wide$20,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)0, 0Trenton to GNVlarge reported damage
1983-04-23TornadoF2, 11 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 80 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)0, 4location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (154 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding0.01events per year at a location (modeled)about 0.01 per year at a given location in the countyStorm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Cold Wave1.84event-days per yearabout 1.84 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)352005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought16.7event-days per yearabout 16.7 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)4622000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.000824annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0824%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.22events per yearabout 1.22 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)46.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave3.42event-days per yearabout 3.42 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)602005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.229events per yearabout 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)621851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Inland Flooding0.143event-days per yearabout 0.143 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)41996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0429events per year (modeled)about 1 in 23 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning83.9days per year with a strikeabout 83.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.73events per yearabout 0.73 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)281986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.139events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00248annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.248%LikelyStorm Events records in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather0.0526event-days per yearabout 0.0526 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202513300.433
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202552301.73
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202531301.03
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding2 of 576.878.379.9Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1, No Rating 3
Cold Wave5 of 548.163.080.0Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 4
Drought5 of 581.284.388.5Relatively Low 5
Earthquake5 of 516.126.039.0Very Low 5
Hail5 of 542.447.558.7Relatively Low 5
Heat Wave5 of 529.751.166.2Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 4
Hurricane5 of 585.793.095.2Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 2
Inland Flooding5 of 515.838.290.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3
Landslide5 of 534.538.159.5Very Low 5
Lightning5 of 581.995.298.1Very High 2, Relatively High 3
Strong Wind5 of 550.157.972.4Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 1
Tornado5 of 550.059.668.7Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 1
Wildfire5 of 590.792.095.0Relatively Moderate 5
Winter Weather5 of 516.319.222.0Relatively Low 3, Very Low 2

Cold Wave: Agriculture is 59% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 96% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Gilchrist County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-06-22FMA RL 0, SRL 6; any 38$2,208,139.960 total; 0 since its plan
Bell townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$10,435.3935 total; 0 since its plan
Fanning Springs cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$106,808.850 total; 0 since its plan
Trenton cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$82,769.5641 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-06-22county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$55,669,589n/a410$1,319n/a$3680.00237%
Cold Wave$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$1,730$221,506$153,112under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$36,168,469n/an/a$21,661n/a0.0599% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$3,910,831,209n/a17,864$26,673n/a$14,8000.000682%
Hail$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$890$25,599$172under 0.0001%
Heat Wave$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$5$108$150,361under 0.0001%
Hurricane$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$1,528,930$890,644$118,3930.0674%
Inland Flooding$2,266,720,029$4,886,6291,506$2,704,699$1,201$998n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$3,395,580n/a24$8n/a$10.000234%
Lightning$2,268,607,324n/a17,826$6,029n/a$231,2820.000266%
Strong Wind$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$15,300$7,602$70,0560.000674%
Tornado$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$106,392$1,636$291,5210.00469%
Wildfire$785,148,293$58,338,9449,653$194,285$1,022$37,8130.0247%
Winter Weather$2,268,607,324$115,559,15617,826$721$3$102under 0.0001%

Totals since 2026-06-22 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 0 county-coded records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 0 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population17,826
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,268,607,324
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$115,559,156
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$5,757,963
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,068,979
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)6
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition38Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total063863805
of which: Gilchrist County (unincorporated area)063863805
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file01901001

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Gilchrist County (unincorporated area)120094063863805
Bell town1202800000000
Fanning Springs city1201460000000
Trenton city1203540000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential063763705
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0010100
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 38 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Gilchrist County, FL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 12041). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/fl/12041/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org