Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Flagler County, FL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
12035
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-06-16. Plan: Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982), approved 2026-06-16.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-06-16: no new hazard declaration and 4 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hurricane ($18,561,164 a year), Inland Flooding ($15,900,637) and Tornado ($3,505,171).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-06-16
Plan:
Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)
Approved:
2026-06-16
Days to expiry:
1,720

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-06-16)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
4 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 69, SRL 45 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 283
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Flagler CountyCountyApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Beverly Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Bunnell cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Flagler Beach cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Marineland townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Palm Coast cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Flagler County School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Dunes Community Development DistrictSpecial DistrictApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
East Flagler Mosquito Control DistrictSpecial DistrictApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720
Grand Haven Community Development DistrictSpecial DistrictApproved, expires 2031-06-16Flagler County (FEMA plan 111982)2026-06-162031-06-161,720

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HurricaneRelatively HighRelatively High$17,457,750$184,289$919,125$18,561,16428
2Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$15,898,390$1,003$1,243$15,900,63750
3TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$944,852$586$2,559,732$3,505,17116
4WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$786,048$243$86,857$873,14820
5Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$44$17$800,781$800,8420No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
6Coastal FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$670,591n/a$119,857$790,44935
7LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$17,422n/a$504,376$521,79841
8Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$192,398$22,137$146,956$361,491302Includes 9 High Wind and 11 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
9Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$4,567$15,093$161,344$181,0051
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$89,499n/a$33,714$123,213Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11HailVery LowVery Low$5,680$8,825$2,093$16,598110
12DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$11,831n/a$11,8314
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$199n/a$1$2000No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14Winter WeatherNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$06Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, ice storm and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 602.06 (Very Low, 36.5); tract 603.01 (Very Low, 34.6); tract 602.07 (Very Low, 29.7)
Hurricanetract 603.01 (Very High, 98.0); tract 602.13 (Very High, 97.2); tract 602.07 (Relatively High, 96.5)
Landslidetract 603.01 (Very Low, 78.7); tract 601.05 (Very Low, 75.7); tract 601.04 (Very Low, 75.3)
Tornadotract 602.13 (Relatively High, 89.7); tract 603.01 (Relatively High, 89.4); tract 602.08 (Relatively High, 83.4)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 602.06 (Relatively High, 96.8); tract 602.07 (Relatively Moderate, 96.2); tract 603.04 (Relatively Moderate, 95.6)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 602.06 is Census Tract 602.06). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)35 records, 2003 to 2025 (35 zone-level)No damage reported in 35 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2009 (1 zone-level)1 day; 1 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2009-02-06, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)4 records, 2026 (4 zone-level)111 days; 1 with a recorded value111 days (about 3.6 months), 2026-02-10 to 2026-05-31, a run of 4 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)117 records, 1960 to 20250.75 in to 2.75 in (median 0.88 in); 117 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1980-04-19Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bunnell city (22 records), Palm Coast city (12 records), Flagler Beach city (9 records), Beverly Beach town (2 records), Marineland town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson28 records, 1999 to 2024 (28 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2024-10-09 to 2024-10-10, category 1, $18,800,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars); NWS zone FLZ138Most damaging recorded: Tropical Storm, 2016-10-06, $73,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)50 records, 1997 to 2024 (1 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2001-09-14, $1,900,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bunnell city (8 records), Flagler Beach city (5 records), Palm Coast city (2 records), Marineland town (1 record). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)41 records, 1998 to 2022Lightning, 2003-08-01, $75,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bunnell city (10 records), Flagler Beach city (5 records), Palm Coast city (4 records), Beverly Beach town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)20 records, 1997 to 2023 (20 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 55 kt (63 mph) (median 43 kt (49 mph)); 17 with a recorded value55 kt (63 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2021-11-05; NWS zone FLZ138Strong Wind, 2011-10-09, $10,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)300 records, 1975 to 202635 kt (40 mph) to 73 kt (84 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 255 with a recorded value73 kt (84 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1989-07-20Thunderstorm Wind, 1993-03-13, $500,000 property; crops not recorded (1993 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bunnell city (77 records), Palm Coast city (33 records), Flagler Beach city (26 records), Beverly Beach town (10 records), Marineland town (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)28 records, 1970 to 2023F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF0); 28 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1983-11-20, 3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)Tornado, 2013-12-14, $5,000,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Flagler Beach city (3 records), Beverly Beach town (1 record), Bunnell city (1 record), Marineland town (1 record), Palm Coast city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)20 records, 1998 to 2026 (14 zone-level)No damage reported in 20 records.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bunnell city (1 record). Zone-level records (14) apply countywide.
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)6 records, 1996 to 2010 (6 zone-level)Winter Storm, 1996-03-10, $320,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars); NWS zone FLZ038Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow, lightning and tsunami.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 38 declarations covering 24 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-10-112024-10-05DR-4834-FLMajor disasterHurricane MiltonHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$11,390,269.15within last 5 years
2024-10-072024-10-05EM-3622-FLEmergencyHurricane MiltonHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4834
2024-08-102024-08-01DR-4806-FLMajor disasterHurricane DebbyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2024-08-032024-08-01EM-3605-FLEmergencyTropical Storm DebbyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4806
2023-08-312023-08-27DR-4734-FLMajor disasterHurricane IdaliaHurricane$155,261.72within last 5 years
2023-08-282023-08-27EM-3596-FLEmergencyTropical Storm IdaliaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4734
2022-12-132022-11-07DR-4680-FLMajor disasterHurricane NicoleHurricane$13,076,428.70within last 5 years
2022-11-082022-11-07EM-3587-FLEmergencyTropical Storm NicoleHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4680
2022-09-292022-09-23DR-4673-FLMajor disasterHurricane IanHurricane$5,681,976.58within last 5 years
2022-09-242022-09-23EM-3584-FLEmergencyTropical Storm IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4673
2020-08-012020-07-31EM-3533-FLEmergencyHurricane IsaiasHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4486-FLMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$97,661.73
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3432-FLEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4486
2019-10-212019-08-28DR-4468-FLMajor disasterHurricane DorianHurricane$3,301,353.09
2019-08-302019-08-28EM-3419-FLEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4468
2017-09-102017-09-04DR-4337-FLMajor disasterHurricane IrmaHurricane$8,611,647.15
2017-09-052017-09-04EM-3385-FLEmergencyHurricane IrmaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4337
2016-10-082016-10-03DR-4283-FLMajor disasterHurricane MatthewHurricane$22,797,627.56
2016-10-062016-10-03EM-3377-FLEmergencyHurricane MatthewHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4283
2009-05-272009-05-17DR-1840-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,053,700.86
2008-08-242008-08-18DR-1785-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm FayHurricane; Inland Flooding$551,957.10
2008-08-212008-08-18EM-3288-FLEmergencyTropical Storm FayHurricane; Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1785
2007-05-022007-05-01FM-2687-FLFire managementDeland Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3220-FLEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-262004-09-24DR-1561-FLMajor disasterHurricane JeanneHurricane$300,394.08
2004-09-162004-09-13DR-1551-FLMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricanenone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $368,533.58 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)
2004-09-042004-09-03DR-1545-FLMajor disasterHurricane FrancesHurricane$2,477,158.03
2004-08-132004-08-11DR-1539-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane CharleyHurricane$710,635.62
2001-09-282001-09-13DR-1393-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding Associated with Tropical Storm GabrielleHurricane; Inland Flooding; Tornado$650,845.87
2001-02-052000-12-01DR-1359-FLMajor disasterSevere FreezeCold WavePA not declared for this county
2000-05-282000-05-28FM-2302-FLFire managementFl, Bunnell Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-10-201999-10-14DR-1306-FLMajor disasterFl-Hurricane Irene-Dr-ReqHurricane$77,784.43
1999-10-151999-10-14EM-3150-FLEmergencyTropical Storm Irene - FloridaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1306
1999-09-221999-09-13DR-1300-FLMajor disasterHurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsHurricane$5,723,658.37
1999-09-141999-09-14EM-3143-FLEmergencyHurricane Floyd Emergency DeclarationsHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1300
1998-06-181998-05-25DR-1223-FLMajor disasterExtreme Fire HazardWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-01-061997-12-25DR-1195-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1977-01-311977-01-31DR-526-FLMajor disasterSevere Winter WeatherCold WavePA not declared for this county

School districts and special districts in this county: $1,989,617.25 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1995-08-031995-08-02EM-3116-FLEmergencyHurricane ErinHurricane
1964-09-101964-09-10DR-176-FLMajor disasterHurricane DoraHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1964-09-081964-09-08DR-175-FLMajor disasterHurricane CleoHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1962-12-171962-12-17DR-141-FLMajor disasterAbnormally High TidesInland Flooding
1960-09-121960-09-12DR-106-FLMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-03-231960-03-23DR-97-FLMajor disasterSevere Weather ConditionsOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1953-10-221953-10-22DR-12-FLMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

17 Fire Management declarations (1985-05-17 to 1998-06-28) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Florida county: 4 rows, $9,327,951.42; listed on the Florida state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding350511001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave1000201996 to 2026-06-30
Drought4044001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1170015001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane280061701996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding500014601996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning41002001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind3204241301955 to 2026-06-30Includes 9 High Wind and 11 Strong Wind records.
Tornado28002401950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire20013301996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather6000001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-02-10Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ138 (COASTAL FLAGLER), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2024-10-09Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')category 1$18,800,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ138 (COASTAL FLAGLER), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2021-11-05High Wind55 kt (63 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone FLZ138 (COASTAL FLAGLER), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2014-07-20Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 1INDIAN TRAILSdeaths or injuries recorded
2009-07-10Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 4FLAGLER BEACHdeaths or injuries recorded
2009-02-06Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone FLZ038 (FLAGLER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2003-08-01Lightning$75,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)0, 0BUNNELLB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2001-09-14Flash Flood$1,900,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1998-07-10Wildfiredamage not reported0, 2BUNNELLdeaths or injuries recorded
1989-07-20Thunderstorm Wind73 kt (84 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1983-11-20TornadoF2, 3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 50 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1983 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1980-04-19Hail2.75 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (650 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding1.36events per year at a location (modeled)about 1.4 per year at a given location in the countyHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from NRI: the rate at a location is 1 or more a year, so the county rate is at least that.
Cold Wave2.67event-days per yearabout 2.67 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)502005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought14.7event-days per yearabout 14.7 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)4272000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.000581annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0581%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.07events per yearabout 2.07 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)79.7 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave3.46event-days per yearabout 3.46 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)55.82005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.273events per yearabout 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)861851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Inland Flooding1.25event-days per yearabout 1.25 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)351996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0543events per year (modeled)about 1 in 18 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning68.5days per year with a strikeabout 68.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.12events per yearabout 1.12 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)391986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.324events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.00517annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.517%LikelyStorm Events records in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather0event-days per yearnone modeledLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)02005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNRI models no winter weather event-days here (2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12, 19 years); Storm Events has a record in 5 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which records events NRI's definition leaves out.

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202544301.47
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025171305.7
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 2025101303.37
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202515300.5
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding14 of 2370.990.598.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 5, No Rating 9
Cold Wave23 of 2320.022.434.7Relatively Low 23
Drought1 of 2389.089.089.0Relatively Low 1, No Rating 22
Earthquake23 of 238.218.936.5Very Low 23
Hail23 of 234.510.257.3Relatively Low 1, Very Low 22
Heat Wave23 of 2330.148.972.6Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 17
Hurricane23 of 2387.993.898.0Very High 2, Relatively High 18, Relatively Moderate 3
Inland Flooding23 of 2311.361.394.7Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 1
Landslide16 of 2315.057.278.7Very Low 16, No Rating 7
Lightning23 of 2352.473.891.7Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 16
Strong Wind23 of 2332.747.378.4Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 15
Tornado23 of 2354.767.089.7Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 15
Tsunami0 of 23Insufficient Data 23
Wildfire23 of 2351.884.996.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 13, Very Low 1
Winter Weather0 of 23No Rating 23

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 53% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, lightning and strong wind are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Flagler CountyCountyApproved, expires 2031-06-16FMA RL 9, SRL 6; any 71$38,843,455.300 total; 0 since its planIncludes $97,661.73 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4486-FL).
Beverly Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-16FMA RL 3, SRL 3; any 34$31,388.1714 total; 0 since its plan
Bunnell cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$562,146.30119 total; 1 since its plan
Flagler Beach cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-16FMA RL 63, SRL 48; any 199$15,821,820.7548 total; 0 since its planWhole community, including the part in Volusia County, plus 1 property with no county in FEMA's file; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 57, FMA SRL 36, NFIP RL 175, NFIP SRL 36, any category 175.
Marineland townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$5,301,427.056 total; 0 since its plan
Palm Coast cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3$11,537,934.5852 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-06-16county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$2,378,496,313n/a11,418$670,591n/a$119,8570.0282%
Cold Wave$19,146,867,481$18,428,062115,270$4,567$15,093$161,344under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$11,398,977n/an/a$11,831n/a0.104% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$31,251,677,497n/a115,378$89,499n/a$33,7140.000286%
Hail$19,146,867,481$18,428,062115,270$5,680$8,825$2,093under 0.0001%
Heat Wave$19,146,867,481$18,428,062115,270$44$17$800,781under 0.0001%
Hurricane$19,141,723,570$18,428,062115,240$17,457,750$184,289$919,1250.0912%
Inland Flooding$19,131,706,804$405,5566,719$15,898,390$1,003$1,243n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$74,686,353n/a357$199n/a$10.000267%
Lightning$19,146,867,481n/a115,270$17,422n/a$504,376under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$19,146,867,481$18,428,062115,270$192,398$22,137$146,9560.001%$500
Tornado$19,146,867,481$18,428,062115,270$944,852$586$2,559,7320.00493%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$2,519,780,268$7,247,47519,091$786,048$243$86,8570.0312%
Winter Weather$0$00$0$0$0building exposure is 0 in NRI

Totals since 2026-06-16 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 4 county-coded records, 2 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $500; 0 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population115,270
Building value (total, not at risk)$19,146,867,481
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$18,428,062
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$36,311,466
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$5,336,081
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)69Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)45
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition283Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition41

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total6945283412830204
of which: Flagler County (unincorporated area)9671471049
of which: Flagler Beach city5736175361750136
of which: Beverly Beach town3334134018
of which: Palm Coast city0030301
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file01901001

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Flagler County1200859671471049
Beverly Beach town1205693334134018
Bunnell city1200860000000
Flagler Beach city1200876348199481990147Whole community, including the part in Volusia County, plus 1 property with no county in FEMA's file; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 57, FMA SRL 36, NFIP RL 175, NFIP SRL 36, any category 175.
Marineland town1205700000000
Palm Coast city1206840030301

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential6836257322570192
2 to 4 unit residential0060604
other residential071771705
non-residential1232303
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 214 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Flagler County, FL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 12035). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/fl/12035/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org