Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Baker County, FL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
12003
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-03-05. Plan: Baker County (FEMA plan 111631), approved 2026-03-05.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-03-05: no new hazard declaration and 11 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,038,942 a year), Hurricane ($1,040,067) and Tornado ($625,872).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-03-05
Plan:
Baker County (FEMA plan 111631)
Approved:
2026-03-05
Days to expiry:
1,617

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-03-05)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
11 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 6, SRL 3 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 19
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Baker County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-03-05Baker County (FEMA plan 111631)2026-03-052031-03-051,617
Glen St. Mary townTownApproved, expires 2031-03-05Baker County (FEMA plan 111631)2026-03-052031-03-051,617this jurisdiction approved 2026-06-22
Macclenny cityCityApproved, expires 2031-03-05Baker County (FEMA plan 111631)2026-03-052031-03-051,617this jurisdiction approved 2026-06-01

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$3,032,660$1,651$4,631$3,038,94219
2HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$879,514$110,591$49,963$1,040,06711
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$98,071$330$527,472$625,8726
4Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$11$19$586,579$586,6081
5WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$272,536$286$55,670$328,49322
6LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$8,628n/a$225,511$234,1394
7Cold WaveVery LowRelatively Low$2,571$32,074$167,161$201,8070Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
8EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$81,801n/a$50,295$132,096Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
9Strong WindVery LowVery Low$11,202$1,443$52,694$65,339134Includes 1 High Wind record (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10HailVery LowVery Low$28,386$583$103$29,07131
11Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$1,627$1$357$1,9853Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
12DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$1,709n/a$1,7098
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$3n/aunder $1$40No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14Coastal FloodingNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0n/a$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, ice storm, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 401.02 (Relatively Low, 62.4); tract 401.01 (Relatively Low, 54.7); tract 402.01 (Relatively Low, 47.2)
Hurricanetract 401.02 (Relatively Moderate, 88.7); tract 401.01 (Relatively Moderate, 87.0); tract 402.01 (Relatively Moderate, 83.1)
Landslidetract 402.01 (Very Low, 46.0); tract 401.02 (Very Low, 38.8); tract 402.02 (Very Low, 32.3)
Tornadotract 401.02 (Relatively High, 75.0); tract 402.01 (Relatively Moderate, 70.9); tract 401.01 (Relatively Moderate, 70.5)
Wildfiretract 402.01 (Relatively Moderate, 94.7); tract 401.02 (Relatively Moderate, 94.7); tract 401.01 (Relatively Moderate, 92.9)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 401.02 is Census Tract 401.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)0Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)8 records, 2025 to 2026 (8 zone-level)31 days to 148 days (median 89.5 days); 2 with a recorded value148 days (about 4.9 months), 2026-01-27 to 2026-06-23, a run of 6 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)39 records, 1969 to 20240.5 in to 2 in (median 1 in); 39 with a recorded value2 in hail, 1998-02-16; same size also recorded on 1998-02-16Hail, 1998-02-22, $1,500 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macclenny city (14 records), Glen St. Mary town (5 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)1 record, 2023 (1 zone-level)1 day; 1 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2023-07-19, 1 direct death, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson11 records, 2004 to 2024 (11 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2024-09-26 to 2024-09-27, $0 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars); NWS zone FLZ023Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)19 records, 1996 to 2023 (1 zone-level)Flood, 1998-03-01, $2,200,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars); NWS zone FLZ023Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macclenny city (9 records), Glen St. Mary town (2 records). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)4 records, 1999 to 2022Lightning, 2015-04-13, $0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars), 2 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macclenny city (2 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)1 record, 2020 (1 zone-level)39 kt (45 mph); 1 with a recorded value39 kt (45 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2020-02-06; NWS zone FLZ023Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)147 records, 1961 to 202435 kt (40 mph) to 65 kt (75 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 104 with a recorded value65 kt (75 mph) estimated sustained, Thunderstorm Wind, 2008-12-11Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-02-17, $25,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macclenny city (41 records), Glen St. Mary town (16 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)12 records, 1973 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF0); 12 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1974-05-12, 3.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars), 1 direct injuryNo event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)22 records, 1998 to 2026 (18 zone-level)Wildfire, 2026-05-01, $0 property; $400,000 crops (2026 dollars); NWS zone FLZ023Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Macclenny city (1 record). Zone-level records (18) apply countywide.
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)3 records, 2014 to 2025 (3 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 39 declarations covering 30 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-10-112024-10-05DR-4834-FLMajor disasterHurricane MiltonHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2024-10-072024-10-05EM-3622-FLEmergencyHurricane MiltonHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4834
2024-09-282024-09-23DR-4828-FLMajor disasterHurricane HeleneHurricane$94,376.95within last 5 years
2024-08-102024-08-01DR-4806-FLMajor disasterHurricane DebbyHurricane$870,269.56within last 5 years
2024-08-032024-08-01EM-3605-FLEmergencyTropical Storm DebbyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4806
2024-06-172024-05-10DR-4794-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2023-08-312023-08-27DR-4734-FLMajor disasterHurricane IdaliaHurricane$13,374.81within last 5 years
2023-08-282023-08-27EM-3596-FLEmergencyTropical Storm IdaliaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4734
2022-12-132022-11-07DR-4680-FLMajor disasterHurricane NicoleHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2022-09-292022-09-23DR-4673-FLMajor disasterHurricane IanHurricane$12,122.58within last 5 years
2022-09-242022-09-23EM-3584-FLEmergencyTropical Storm IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4673
2021-07-042021-07-04EM-3561-FLEmergencyTropical Storm ElsaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4486-FLMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$120,864
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3432-FLEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4486
2019-08-302019-08-28EM-3419-FLEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2018-10-092018-10-07EM-3405-FLEmergencyHurricane MichaelHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2017-09-102017-09-04DR-4337-FLMajor disasterHurricane IrmaHurricane$1,263,911.36
2017-09-052017-09-04EM-3385-FLEmergencyHurricane IrmaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4337
2016-10-062016-10-03EM-3377-FLEmergencyHurricane MatthewHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2016-09-282016-08-31DR-4280-FLMajor disasterHurricane HermineHurricane$0
2012-07-032012-06-23DR-4068-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm DebbyHurricane$889,646.43
2009-05-272009-05-17DR-1840-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$262,920.31
2008-08-242008-08-18DR-1785-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm FayHurricane; Inland Flooding$521,828.06
2008-08-212008-08-18EM-3288-FLEmergencyTropical Storm FayHurricane; Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1785
2007-05-072007-05-07FM-2689-FLFire managementSuwannee Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3220-FLEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-262004-09-24DR-1561-FLMajor disasterHurricane JeanneHurricane$130,625.31
2004-09-042004-09-03DR-1545-FLMajor disasterHurricane FrancesHurricane$1,538,425.17
2004-08-132004-08-11DR-1539-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm Bonnie and Hurricane CharleyHurricane$17,926.48
2001-02-052000-12-01DR-1359-FLMajor disasterSevere FreezeCold WavePA not declared for this county
2000-06-052000-06-05FM-2306-FLFire managementFl, Suwannee Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-04-271999-04-15EM-3139-FLEmergencyFl-Fires 04/15/99Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-04-201999-04-13FM-2258-FLFire managementFl-Fires 04/13/99Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-06-181998-05-25DR-1223-FLMajor disasterExtreme Fire HazardWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-01-061997-12-25DR-1195-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1996-10-151996-10-07DR-1141-FLMajor disasterTropical Storm JosephineHurricane; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1993-03-131993-03-12DR-982-FLMajor disasterTornadoes, Flooding, High Winds & Tides, FreezingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1992-10-081992-10-03DR-966-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1973-05-261973-05-26DR-387-FLMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1995-08-031995-08-02EM-3116-FLEmergencyHurricane ErinHurricane
1964-09-101964-09-10DR-176-FLMajor disasterHurricane DoraHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1964-09-081964-09-08DR-175-FLMajor disasterHurricane CleoHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1962-12-171962-12-17DR-141-FLMajor disasterAbnormally High TidesInland Flooding
1960-09-121960-09-12DR-106-FLMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-03-231960-03-23DR-97-FLMajor disasterSevere Weather ConditionsOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1953-10-221953-10-22DR-12-FLMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

17 Fire Management declarations (1985-05-17 to 1998-06-28) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Florida county: 4 rows, $9,327,951.42; listed on the Florida state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Drought8358001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail39001001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave1001001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane110031801996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding19006901996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning4001001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1480013501955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind record.
Tornado12011701950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire22808501996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather3001001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-05-01Wildfire$0 property; $400,000 crops (zone total, 2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ023 (BAKER), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2026-01-27Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone FLZ023 (BAKER), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2024-09-26Tropical Storm$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ023 (BAKER), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2023-07-19Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)1, 0NWS zone FLZ023 (BAKER), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2022-05-06Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)0, 1MACCLENNYwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2020-02-06High Wind39 kt (45 mph) estimated gust$2,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ023 (BAKER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2015-04-13Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)0, 2MACCLENNYdeaths or injuries recorded
2008-12-11Thunderstorm Wind65 kt (75 mph) estimated sustainedproperty not reported; $0 crops (2008 dollars)0, 0KNABBB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-03-01Flood$2,200,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone FLZ023 (BAKER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1998-02-17Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$25,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0MACCLENNYB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-02-16Hail2 indamage not reported0, 0TAYLORB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1974-05-12TornadoF2, 3.3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1974 dollars)0, 1location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (267 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding0.012events per year at a location (modeled)about 0.012 per year at a given location in the countyStorm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Cold Wave1.84event-days per yearabout 1.84 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)35.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought17.9event-days per yearabout 17.9 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)5042000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00107annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.107%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2events per yearabout 2 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)76.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave4.11event-days per yearabout 4.11 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)73.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.214events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)691851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Inland Flooding0.607event-days per yearabout 0.607 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)171996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0693events per year (modeled)about 1 in 14 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning80.4days per year with a strikeabout 80.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.16events per yearabout 1.16 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)451986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.305events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00335annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.335%LikelyStorm Events records in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather0.105event-days per yearabout 0.105 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)22005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202514300.467
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202587302.9
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202545301.5
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding0 of 4No Rating 4
Cold Wave4 of 437.252.255.8Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Drought4 of 473.073.980.2Relatively Low 1, Very Low 3
Earthquake4 of 439.251.062.4Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Hail4 of 439.349.758.9Relatively Low 4
Heat Wave4 of 473.588.390.7Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Hurricane4 of 480.785.088.7Relatively Moderate 4
Inland Flooding4 of 435.262.679.1Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 1
Landslide4 of 431.535.646.0Very Low 4
Lightning4 of 482.595.096.7Very High 1, Relatively High 3
Strong Wind4 of 434.051.856.7Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3
Tornado4 of 456.070.775.0Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3
Wildfire4 of 492.893.894.7Relatively Moderate 4
Winter Weather4 of 419.824.328.6Relatively Low 4

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Baker County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-03-05FMA RL 6, SRL 3; any 17$4,768,772.260 total; 0 since its plan
Glen St. Mary townTownApproved, expires 2031-03-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$15,066.2623 total; 0 since its plan
Macclenny cityCityApproved, expires 2031-03-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$601,887.3367 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-03-05county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$41,657,625n/a422$0n/a$00%
Cold Wave$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$2,571$32,074$167,161under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$1,921,183n/an/a$1,709n/a0.089% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$6,619,256,627n/a28,259$81,801n/a$50,2950.00124%
Hail$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$28,386$583$1030.000749%
Heat Wave$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$11$19$586,579under 0.0001%
Hurricane$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$879,514$110,591$49,9630.0232%
Inland Flooding$3,787,372,485$1,368,7581,043$3,032,660$1,651$4,631n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$892,627n/a8$3n/aunder $10.000378%
Lightning$3,787,986,554n/a27,852$8,628n/a$225,5110.000228%
Strong Wind$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$11,202$1,443$52,6940.000296%
Tornado$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$98,071$330$527,4720.00259%
Wildfire$918,697,450$11,365,75411,825$272,536$286$55,6700.0297%$600,000
Winter Weather$3,787,986,554$17,001,17427,852$1,627$1$357under 0.0001%

Totals since 2026-03-05 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 0 county-coded records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 11 zone-level records, 11 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $600,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population27,852
Building value (total, not at risk)$3,787,986,554
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$17,001,174
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$4,565,697
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,720,437
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)6Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)3
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition18Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition3

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total631831907
of which: Baker County (unincorporated area)631631707
of which: Macclenny city0020200
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file01901001

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Baker County (unincorporated area)120419631631707
Glen St. Mary town1200020000000
Macclenny city1205900020200

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential631831907
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 13 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Baker County, FL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 12003). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/fl/12003/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org