Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Madera County, CA

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
06039
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Plan 111805 approved 2026-06-29, pending adoption here; not yet eligible. Plan: Madera County (FEMA plan 111805), pending adoption here, approved 2026-06-29 by FEMA; not yet adopted here.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Drought ($63,376,142 a year), Inland Flooding ($44,693,587) and Wildfire ($22,965,256).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Plan 111805 approved 2026-06-29, pending adoption here; not yet eligible
Plan:
Madera County (FEMA plan 111805), pending adoption here
Approved:
2026-06-29 by FEMA; not yet adopted here
Expires:
2031-06-28 once adopted
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

What changed since your last plan

Not available. Plan 111805 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-29 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Madera CountyCountyPlan 111805 approved 2026-06-29, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleMadera County (FEMA plan 111805), pending adoption here2026-06-29 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-06-28 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Chowchilla cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-28Madera County (FEMA plan 111805)2026-06-292031-06-281,732this jurisdiction approved 2026-08-05
Madera cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-28Madera County (FEMA plan 111805)2026-06-292031-06-281,732
Aliso Water DistrictWater/Sewer AuthorityExpired on 2023-05-30Central California Irrigation District (FEMA plan 104939)2018-05-312023-05-30-1,219
Triangle T Water DistrictWater/Sewer AuthorityExpired on 2023-05-30Central California Irrigation District (FEMA plan 104939)2018-05-312023-05-30-1,219

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1DroughtVery HighVery Highn/a$63,376,142n/a$63,376,14221
2Inland FloodingRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$43,258,432$955,896$479,259$44,693,58776
3WildfireRelatively HighRelatively High$21,930,419$8,063$1,026,773$22,965,25611
4EarthquakeRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$15,428,245n/a$4,585,375$20,013,620Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
5Heat WaveRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$2,295$3,034,825$5,881,768$8,918,88747
6HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$9,866$322,328$179,807$512,00122
7LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$18,456n/a$363,458$381,9147
8LandslideRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$990n/a$351,812$352,8028
9TornadoVery LowVery Low$106,217$2,826$47,046$156,0897
10Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$48,458$20,676$61,109$130,24264Includes 37 High Wind and 18 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
11Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$9,322under $1$75,531$84,85391
12AvalancheVery LowVery Low$1n/a$105$1070No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13Volcanic ActivityVery LowVery Low$6n/a$28$330No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14Cold WaveNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$042Includes 42 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3248-CA names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
Ice StormNot ApplicableNot Applicable0Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local volcanic activity records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding and tsunami. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 1.09 (Very Low, 20.3); tract 1.03 (Very Low, 20.2); tract 1.11 (Very Low, 19.3)
Earthquaketract 11 (Very High, 99.1); tract 8.02 (Relatively High, 93.3); tract 7.02 (Relatively High, 93.0)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 1.02 (Relatively High, 99.8); tract 1.03 (Relatively High, 99.6); tract 1.11 (Relatively Moderate, 98.8)
Tornadotract 11 (Very Low, 28.9); tract 1.03 (Very Low, 21.9); tract 3.02 (Very Low, 20.6)
Volcanic Activitytract 1.02 (Very Low, 83.8); tract 1.04 (Very Low, 83.2); tract 1.03 (Very Low, 82.9)
Wildfiretract 1.03 (Very High, 100.0); tract 1.04 (Very High, 99.9); tract 1.10 (Very High, 99.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1.09 is Census Tract 1.09). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage42 records, 2019 to 2026 (42 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 42 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)21 records, 2021 to 2022 (21 zone-level)640 days; 1 with a recorded value640 days (21 months), 2021-04-01 to 2022-12-31, a run of 21 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)24 records, 1983 to 20230.4 in to 1.75 in (median 0.75 in); 23 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2002-05-20Hail, 2001-04-20, property not reported; $3,250,000 crops (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Madera city (8 records), Chowchilla city (5 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)47 records, 2019 to 2026 (47 zone-level)1 day to 12 days (median 3 days); 36 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 2024-07-02 to 2024-07-13, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed). Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)0Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)76 records, 1997 to 2025Flood, 2006-04-05, $2,750,000 property; $5,800,000 crops (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Madera city (8 records), Chowchilla city (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)8 records, 2017 to 2025Debris Flow, 2025-03-17, $5,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)7 records, 1999 to 2014Lightning, 2014-01-30, $2,500 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Madera city (2 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)55 records, 2019 to 2025 (55 zone-level)30 kt (35 mph) to 96 kt (110 mph) (median 54 kt (62 mph)); 55 with a recorded value96 kt (110 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2021-01-19; NWS zone CAZ190High Wind, 2021-01-18, $200,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)13 records, 1957 to 201943 kt (49 mph) to 63 kt (72 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 7 with a recorded value63 kt (72 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1988-02-28Thunderstorm Wind, 2001-04-07, property not reported; $7,800,000 crops (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Chowchilla city (2 records), Madera city (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)11 records, 1958 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF0); 10 with a recorded valueEF2 tornado, 2020-09-05, 12.02 mi within this county, 50 yd wide, property not reported; $0 crops (2020 dollars)Tornado, 2002-05-20, $130,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Chowchilla city (1 record), Madera city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Volcanic Ash, Volcanic AshfallVolcanic Explosivity Index (local data)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)11 records, 2001 to 2020 (4 zone-level)Wildfire, 2001-08-20, $4,100,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (4) apply countywide.Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)91 records, 2019 to 2026 (91 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2023-01-09, $5,200,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars); NWS zone CAZ317Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 25 declarations covering 19 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Plan 111805 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-29 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2023-04-032023-02-21DR-4699-CAMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesIce Storm; Inland Flooding; Landslide; Strong Wind; Winter Weather$1,392,714.10within last 5 years
2023-03-102023-03-09EM-3592-CAEmergencySevere Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4699
2023-01-142022-12-27DR-4683-CAMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weather$1,180,154.22within last 5 years
2023-01-092023-01-08EM-3591-CAEmergencySevere Winter Storms, Flooding, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4683
2020-10-162020-09-04DR-4569-CAMajor disasterWildfiresWildfire$1,355,965.45
2020-09-062020-09-06FM-5348-CAFire managementCreek FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4569
2020-03-222020-01-20DR-4482-CAMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$4,624,630.04
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3428-CAEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4482
2017-09-042017-09-04FM-5204-CAFire managementMission FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2017-09-022017-08-29FM-5202-CAFire managementRailroad FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2014-09-142014-09-14FM-5078-CAFire managementCourtney FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2014-08-192014-08-18FM-5074-CAFire managementJunction FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-03-132007-01-11DR-1689-CAMajor disasterSevere FreezeCold WavePA not declared for this county
2006-06-052006-03-29DR-1646-CAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide$963,282.50
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3248-CAEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-07-252005-07-25FM-2571-CAFire managementCa-Quartz Fire-7-25-2005Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-02-091998-12-20DR-1267-CAMajor disasterCa-Citrus Crop Damage 2/2/99Cold WavePA not declared for this county
1997-01-041996-12-28DR-1155-CAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Mud and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslideno Public Assistance recorded
1995-03-121995-02-13DR-1046-CAMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Flooding Landslides, Mud FlowInland Flooding; Landslide; Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1995-01-101995-01-03DR-1044-CAMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, Mud FlowsInland Flooding; Landslide; Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-02-031993-01-05DR-979-CAMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Mud & Land Slides, & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1991-02-111990-12-19DR-894-CAMajor disasterSevere FreezeCold WavePA not declared for this county
1986-02-211986-02-12DR-758-CAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1977-01-201977-01-20EM-3023-CAEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1969-01-261969-01-26DR-253-CAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-04-011964-04-01DR-169-CAMajor disasterSeismic Sea WaveTsunami
1963-12-211963-12-21DR-161-CAMajor disasterFlood Due to Broken DamOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1963-02-251963-02-25DR-145-CAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Heavy Rains & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-10-241962-10-24DR-138-CAMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-061962-03-06DR-122-CAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1961-11-161961-11-16DR-119-CAMajor disasterFire (Los Angeles County)Wildfire
1958-04-041958-04-04DR-82-CAMajor disasterHeavy Rainstorms & FloodInland Flooding
1956-12-291956-12-29DR-65-CAMajor disasterForest FireWildfire
1955-12-231955-12-23DR-47-CAMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1954-02-051954-02-05DR-15-CAMajor disasterFlood & ErosionInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

5 Fire Management declarations (1977-08-07 to 1988-09-13) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 2 rows, $350,913.66

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-1952-CA2011-01-26Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud FlowsMadera County$222,833.55
DR-1952-CA2011-01-26Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Debris and Mud FlowsMADERA IRRIGATION DISTRICT$128,080.11

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave423031996 to 2026-06-30Includes 42 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought211511996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail24201955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave472501996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm0011996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Inland Flooding763391996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide8671996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning7001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind684211955 to 2026-06-30Includes 37 High Wind and 18 Strong Wind records.
Tornado11101950 to 2026-06-30
Volcanic Activity0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire11061996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather917651996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-03-17Debris Flow$5,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)0, 0OAKHURSTwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Debris Flow
2024-07-02Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone CAZ302 (MERCED-MADERA-MENDOTA), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2021-04-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone CAZ192 (CENTRAL SIERRA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2021-01-19High Wind96 kt (110 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone CAZ190 (CENTRAL SIERRA FOOTHILLS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2020-09-05TornadoEF2, 12.02 mi within this county, 50 yd wideproperty not reported; $0 crops (2020 dollars)0, 0CENTRAL CAMP to BEASOREB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2020-09-04Wildfiredamage not reported0, 29NWS zone CAZ192 (CENTRAL SIERRA), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2014-01-30Lightning$2,500 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0ONEALSB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2006-04-05Flood$2,750,000 property; $5,800,000 crops (2006 dollars)0, 0DAIRYLANDB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2002-05-20Hail1.75 inproperty not reported; $256,000 crops (2002 dollars)0, 0MADERA MUNI ARPTB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2001-08-20Wildfire$4,100,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)0, 0WISHONB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2000-02-27Hail0.75 in$30,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)0, 4MADERAdeaths or injuries recorded
1988-02-28Thunderstorm Wind63 kt (72 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (406 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave0event-days per yearnone modeledevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought84.8event-days per yearabout 84.8 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)2,6392000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.0712annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 7.12%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.178events per yearabout 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)6.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave6.6event-days per yearabout 6.6 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 7 of 30 years)event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)72.42005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic); 1949 to 2024 (Pacific)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Stormevent-days per year1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywideNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Inland Flooding1.43event-days per yearabout 1.43 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 18 of 30 years)event-days in 18 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (60%)401996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide28.6events per year (modeled)about 28.6 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning15.6days per year with a strikeabout 15.6 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.0493events per yearabout 1 in 20 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.204events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Volcanic Activity0.0006annual probabilityabout 1 in 1,667 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Wildfire0.00688annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.688%Likely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather11.9event-days per yearabout 11.9 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 7 of 30 years)event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)2262005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 20256300.2
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 20253300.1
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche5 of 3416.919.320.3Very Low 5, Not Applicable 29
Cold Wave0 of 34No Rating 34
Drought28 of 3473.096.6100.0Very High 7, Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 8, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 3, No Rating 6
Earthquake34 of 3472.687.099.1Very High 1, Relatively High 11, Relatively Moderate 19, Relatively Low 3
Hail34 of 3437.353.597.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 27, Very Low 1
Heat Wave34 of 3472.393.3100.0Very High 3, Relatively High 29, Relatively Moderate 2
Hurricane0 of 34Not Applicable 34
Ice Storm0 of 34Not Applicable 34
Inland Flooding34 of 3435.579.999.8Very High 6, Relatively High 11, Relatively Moderate 16, Relatively Low 1
Landslide25 of 348.928.099.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 17, No Rating 9
Lightning34 of 3419.352.481.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 21, Relatively Low 11, Very Low 1
Strong Wind34 of 3414.820.860.3Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 18, Very Low 15
Tornado34 of 345.113.128.9Very Low 34
Volcanic Activity8 of 3440.979.483.8Very Low 8, No Rating 26
Wildfire30 of 3433.692.7100.0Very High 7, Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 4, No Rating 4
Winter Weather34 of 3414.116.996.1Very High 2, Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2, Very Low 25

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Hail: Agriculture is 63% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for drought, hail, heat wave, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Madera CountyCountyPlan 111805 approved 2026-06-29, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 2$5,786,984.890 total; no approved planIncludes $1,891,170.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4482-CA).
Chowchilla cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded9 total; 0 since its plan
Madera cityCityApproved, expires 2031-06-28FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$680,300.7621 total; 0 since its planIncludes $49,535.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4482-CA).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

Plan 111805 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-29 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$1,121,361n/aunder 1$1n/a$1050.000105%
Cold Wave$0$00$0$0$0building exposure is 0 in NRI
Droughtn/a$1,407,728,187n/an/a$63,376,142n/a4.5% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$53,614,739,148n/a156,255$15,428,245n/a$4,585,3750.0288%
Hail$31,059,051,625$1,921,850,590156,146$9,866$322,328$179,807under 0.0001%
Heat Wave$31,059,042,220$1,921,850,590156,146$2,295$3,034,825$5,881,768under 0.0001%
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice StormNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Inland Flooding$31,041,917,840$799,381,90411,522$43,258,432$955,896$479,259n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,211,936,414n/a4,153$990n/a$351,812under 0.0001%
Lightning$31,059,051,625n/a156,146$18,456n/a$363,458under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$31,059,051,625$1,921,850,590156,146$48,458$20,676$61,1090.000156%
Tornado$31,059,051,625$1,921,850,590156,146$106,217$2,826$47,0460.000342%
Volcanic Activity$31,059,051,625n/a156,146$6n/a$28under 0.0001%
Wildfire$6,382,154,728$474,731,01339,258$21,930,419$8,063$1,026,7730.344%
Winter Weather$31,059,042,220$1,921,850,590156,146$9,322under $1$75,531under 0.0001%

Totals since the plan: not available. Plan 111805 was approved by FEMA on 2026-06-29 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population156,146
Building value (total, not at risk)$31,059,051,625
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$1,921,850,590
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively High
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$148,533,462
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$13,052,070
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0121200
of which: Madera County (unincorporated area)0121200
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0130410

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Madera County0601700121200
Chowchilla city0601710000000
Madera city0601720000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0000000
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0010100
non-residential0111100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 2 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Madera County, CA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 06039). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ca/06039/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.