Van Buren County, AR

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

Where each hazard occurs

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records are placed with NWS zone-county files, which exist from 2020 on; an earlier record is placed by its zone number in the nearest later file only when its zone name matches that file, records from zones NWS renumbered are placed by name or left out, and a record whose zone is in no known file is left out of every count, so counts before 2020 can be low. Some current zones are also missing from the NWS files, so recent counts can be low too.

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

School districts and special districts in this county: $6,570 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan members in this county. They are not shown as member blocks, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county); do not add this line to the county total.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Statewide declarations

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county. Listed on every county page in the state; not counted with county rows.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Notable Storm Events records

The full list is in the XLSX file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (573 rows).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records are placed with NWS zone-county files, which exist from 2020 on; an earlier record is placed by its zone number in the nearest later file only when its zone name matches that file, records from zones NWS renumbered are placed by name or left out, and a record whose zone is in no known file is left out of every count, so counts before 2020 can be low. Some current zones are also missing from the NWS files, so recent counts can be low too.

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) comes from the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025). It is not recorded events divided by years, and what it measures depends on the hazard. For most hazards it estimates how often the hazard affects this county each year: it counts events or event-days (drought, heat wave, cold wave, winter weather, ice storm and inland flooding are in days per year; lightning is the number of days per year with a recorded cloud-to-ground strike, from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center daily lightning climatology); it may count events in the surrounding area (hail, strong wind, tornado, hurricane and ice storm use a 49 km grid and buffers) and is averaged over the county's area; and some hazards use a minimum value for places with no recorded event. Earthquake, wildfire and coastal flooding are different: FEMA computes them for each census block and averages them over the county, so the value is the chance (for coastal flooding, the modeled number of floods per year) at a location in the county, which is lower than the chance that the hazard strikes somewhere in the county. Earthquake is the chance of at least minor-damage shaking (U.S. Geological Survey model); wildfire is the chance that a location burns in a large fire (U.S. Forest Service burn probability); coastal flooding comes from FEMA flood zones and NOAA high-tide flooding, so it can be above 1 where high-tide flooding is frequent. Tsunami is the value at the county's most exposed location, from recorded events and modeled return periods. For these four hazards the packet gives no "1 in N years" and takes the descriptor from Storm Events (none for earthquake) unless the value is 1 or more a year. Landslide is a U.S. Geological Survey modeled county rate spread by slope susceptibility. Volcanic activity is the chance that a volcano affecting the county erupts in a year. Drought counts only extreme and exceptional drought (D3 and D4). Source: FEMA, National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20, sections 5.2.2 (Table 5), 5.2.3, 7.4, 10.4, 16.5, 17.1, 17.3.1, 17.5, 20.3.1, 21.4, 22.4 and 6 to 23.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Range of census tract risk within the county

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

Per-member block (Starter, confirm locally)

Member rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each member row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Totals since 2022-07-06 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 26 county-coded records, 26 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $10,000; 11 zone-level records, 9 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance on counted declarations none found (2 declarations, 0 with PA).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column must not be added up; the unit total counts each declaration once.

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

County context

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss total adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; the two parts are shown separately so the property figure is not read as including the statistical value of life.

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Your state NFIP coordinator's list may use the NFIP insurance definition, so its counts can be higher.

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Repeat-flood properties by plan member (NFIP community)

Per-member types: XLSX sheet 'B2-c Members'.

Member rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each member row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Institutional properties cannot be separated in this data: FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class, so they fall in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.