Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Elmore County, AL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
01051
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-05-27. Plan: Division D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), approved 2026-05-28.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-05-28: no new hazard declaration and 8 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($18,841,502 a year), Tornado ($2,968,110) and Heat Wave ($2,125,995).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-05-27
Plan:
Division D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555)
Approved:
2026-05-28
Days to expiry:
1,700

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-05-28)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
8 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 4
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Elmore County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-05-27Division D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555)2026-05-282031-05-271,700
Coosada townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Deatsville townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Eclectic townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Elmore townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Millbrook cityCityPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Prattville cityCityPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Tallassee cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-27Division D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555)2026-05-282031-05-271,700this jurisdiction approved 2026-08-27
Wetumpka cityCityPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleDivision D (East Alabama Regional) (FEMA plan 111555), pending adoption here2026-05-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-05-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Plan 111555 lists 54 other participants not on this page, 26 of them not covered by it yet (named in the Excel file).

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$18,626,734$533$214,236$18,841,50249
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,792,178$706$1,175,227$2,968,11044
3Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$85$2,981$2,122,929$2,125,9957
4EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$699,167n/a$383,133$1,082,300Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
5HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$849,032$65,792$57,848$972,6718Includes 3 Tropical Depression records (outside NRI's Hurricane definition).
6Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$197,541$4,210$583,775$785,526266Includes 2 High Wind and 8 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7LightningRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$21,559n/a$757,737$779,29613
8Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$3,624$10,190$633,319$647,1336Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
9DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$258,591n/a$258,59167
10HailVery LowRelatively Low$115,472$5,440$1,184$122,09697
11WildfireVery LowRelatively Low$69,865$28$19,326$89,2180No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$16,575n/a$18,965$35,5401
13LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$10,086n/a$330$10,4160No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14Winter WeatherVery LowVery Low$3,125$52$5,967$9,14312

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 306 (Relatively Low, 76.3); tract 309.02 (Relatively Low, 74.8); tract 313 (Relatively Low, 74.3)
Hurricanetract 304.01 (Relatively Low, 78.3); tract 307.01 (Relatively Low, 76.7); tract 306 (Relatively Low, 76.7)
Landslidetract 307.02 (Relatively Low, 95.2); tract 304.01 (Relatively Low, 95.1); tract 303 (Relatively Low, 95.0)
Tornadotract 306 (Relatively High, 86.6); tract 307.01 (Relatively High, 83.6); tract 307.02 (Relatively High, 75.3)
Wildfiretract 302 (Relatively Low, 87.6); tract 303 (Relatively Low, 86.8); tract 305 (Relatively Low, 85.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 306 is Census Tract 306). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill4 records, 1996 to 2014 (4 zone-level)2 days to 4 days (median 2.5 days); 4 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 1996-03-07 to 1996-03-10, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage2 records, 2007 (2 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)67 records, 2006 to 2026 (67 zone-level)1 day to 571 days (median 60.5 days); 10 with a recorded value571 days (about 18.8 months), 2011-05-10 to 2012-11-30, a run of 20 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)111 records, 1966 to 20240.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 111 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2007-04-11; same size also recorded on 2003-04-25, 2007-04-11Hail, 2003-04-25, $500,000 property; $0 crops (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wetumpka city (27 records), Millbrook city (22 records), Tallassee city (9 records), Eclectic town (6 records), Deatsville town (3 records), Coosada town (1 record), Elmore town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)7 records, 1996 to 2023 (7 zone-level)2 days to 16 days (median 4 days); 4 with a recorded value16 consecutive days, 2007-08-08 to 2007-08-23, 1 direct death, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson8 records, 2005 to 2020 (8 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2005-07-10, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars); NWS zone ALZ043Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2011 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)49 records, 1996 to 2026 (2 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2009-05-07, $4,900,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Millbrook city (11 records), Wetumpka city (11 records), Deatsville town (3 records), Eclectic town (1 record), Elmore town (1 record), Tallassee city (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)13 records, 1997 to 2019Lightning, 2015-07-23, $0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars), 1 direct deathLightning, 2008-05-15, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Millbrook city (3 records), Wetumpka city (3 records), Eclectic town (2 records), Prattville city (1 record), Tallassee city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)10 records, 2000 to 2024 (10 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 62 kt (71 mph) (median 39 kt (45 mph)); 10 with a recorded value62 kt (71 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2004-09-16; NWS zone ALZ043Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)324 records, 1960 to 202630 kt (35 mph) to 75 kt (86 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 257 with a recorded value75 kt (86 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1974-03-21Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-04-25, $600,000 property; $0 crops (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wetumpka city (58 records), Tallassee city (24 records), Millbrook city (22 records), Deatsville town (17 records), Eclectic town (13 records), Coosada town (10 records), Elmore town (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)56 records, 1956 to 2023F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 56 with a recorded valueEF3 tornado, 2011-04-27, 20.38 mi within this county, 880 yd wide, $50,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars), 6 direct deaths, 20 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wetumpka city (10 records), Tallassee city (4 records), Deatsville town (3 records), Millbrook city (3 records), Eclectic town (2 records), Elmore town (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)12 records, 1996 to 2025 (12 zone-level)Winter Storm, 1996-12-18, $15,000 property; $20,000 crops (1996 dollars); NWS zone ALZ043Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 24 declarations covering 20 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-09-262024-09-22EM-3618-ALEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2023-05-052023-03-24DR-4710-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesStrong Wind; Tornado$109,071.22within last 5 years
2023-01-152023-01-12DR-4684-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesStrong Wind; Tornado$673,587.37within last 5 years
2020-12-102020-10-28DR-4573-ALMajor disasterHurricane ZetaHurricane$158,813.57
2020-09-142020-09-14EM-3545-ALEmergencyHurricane SallyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-292020-01-20DR-4503-ALMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$168,397.35
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3472-ALEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4503
2017-10-082017-10-06EM-3394-ALEmergencyHurricane NateHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2017-09-112017-09-08EM-3389-ALEmergencyHurricane IrmaHurricane$7,074.61
2016-01-212015-12-23DR-4251-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$777,462.23
2011-04-282011-04-15DR-1971-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$528,799.64
2011-04-272011-04-27EM-3319-ALEmergencySevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1971
2009-06-032009-05-06DR-1842-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, and Straight-Line WindsInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,076,306.76
2009-04-282009-03-25DR-1835-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes & Straight-LineInland Flooding; Tornado$394,935.97
2008-08-302008-08-29EM-3292-ALEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3237-ALEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-07-102005-07-10DR-1593-ALMajor disasterHurricane DennisHurricane$30,827.05
2004-09-152004-09-13DR-1549-ALMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricane$331,965.99
1995-10-041995-10-04DR-1070-ALMajor disasterHurricane OpalHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-151993-03-13EM-3096-ALEmergencySevere Snowfall, Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1990-03-211990-03-15DR-861-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1979-04-181979-04-18DR-578-ALMajor disasterStorms, Wind, FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1977-07-201977-07-20EM-3045-ALEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1975-04-231975-04-23DR-464-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1961-02-271961-02-27DR-109-ALMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave6000001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought67125101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail111007001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave7002001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane8000901996 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 Tropical Depression records.
Ice Storm1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding49034701996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning13000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind3347859501955 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 High Wind and 8 Strong Wind records.
Tornado560012801950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather12001101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2015-07-23Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)1, 0ROBINSON SPGSdeaths or injuries recorded
2011-05-10Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ALZ043 (ELMORE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2011-04-27TornadoEF3, 20.38 mi within this county, 880 yd wide$50,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)6, 20WALLSBURG to MARTIN LAKE SOUTHdeaths or injuries recorded
2009-05-07Flash Flood$4,900,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0MILLBROOK to PRATTVILLE JCTB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2007-08-08Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)1, 14NWS zone ALZ043 (ELMORE), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2007-04-11Hail2.75 in$0 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0WETUMPKAB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2005-07-10Tropical Storm$200,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2005 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ043 (ELMORE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2004-09-16High Wind62 kt (71 mph) estimated gust$2,000,000 property; $50,000 crops (zone total, 2004 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ043 (ELMORE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2003-04-25Thunderstorm Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust$600,000 property; $0 crops (2003 dollars)0, 0TITUSB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1996-12-18Winter Storm$15,000 property; $20,000 crops (zone total, 1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ043 (ELMORE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1996-03-07Cold/Wind Chillproperty not reported; $1,000,000 crops (zone total, 1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ043 (ELMORE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1974-03-21Thunderstorm Wind75 kt (86 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (664 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.368event-days per yearabout 0.368 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)72005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought40.3event-days per yearabout 40.3 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)1,4702000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.0019annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.19%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.63events per yearabout 2.63 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)99.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave9event-days per yearabout 9 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)1472005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0784events per yearabout 1 in 13 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)281851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.421event-days per yearabout 0.421 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)291946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.46event-days per yearabout 1.46 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)411996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.432events per year (modeled)about 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning66.7days per year with a strikeabout 66.7 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.22events per yearabout 1.22 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)471986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.554events per yearabout 0.55 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00107annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.107%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather1.37event-days per yearabout 1.37 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)262005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202550301.67
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20258300.267
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025219307.3
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202520300.667
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202534301.13
TornadoEF2-31996 to 202510300.333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave20 of 2028.741.460.2Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 17
Drought18 of 2071.282.497.2Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 8, No Rating 2
Earthquake20 of 2037.262.976.3Relatively Low 19, Very Low 1
Hail20 of 2032.948.159.6Relatively Low 18, Very Low 2
Heat Wave20 of 2061.282.093.5Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 13
Hurricane20 of 2057.168.878.3Relatively Low 20
Ice Storm20 of 209.526.643.1Relatively Low 2, Very Low 18
Inland Flooding20 of 208.873.596.8Very High 1, Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Landslide20 of 2042.275.095.2Relatively Low 8, Very Low 12
Lightning20 of 2067.488.597.8Very High 1, Relatively High 16, Relatively Moderate 3
Strong Wind20 of 2052.775.888.9Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 17, Relatively Low 1
Tornado20 of 2050.968.886.6Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 14, Relatively Low 1
Wildfire20 of 2037.372.587.6Relatively Low 11, Very Low 9
Winter Weather20 of 2018.824.332.2Relatively Low 20

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Elmore County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2031-05-27FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$2,931,216.780 total; 0 since its planIncludes $168,397.35 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4503-AL).
Coosada townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$5,707.8411 total; no approved plan
Deatsville townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$44,098.5226 total; no approved plan
Eclectic townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$25,933.5124 total; no approved plan
Elmore townTownPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$14,415.356 total; no approved plan
Millbrook cityCityPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$398,816.0861 total; no approved plan
Prattville cityCityPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5no Public Assistance recorded1 total; no approved planWhole community, including the part in Autauga County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 0, FMA SRL 0, NFIP RL 1, NFIP SRL 0, any category 1.
Tallassee cityCityApproved, expires 2031-05-27FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$41,806.7939 total; 1 since its plan
Wetumpka cityCityPlan 111555 approved 2026-05-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$558,052.40109 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-05-28county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$14,044,272,826$35,536,83187,755$3,624$10,190$633,319under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$18,524,665n/an/a$258,591n/a1.4% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$23,557,434,417n/a87,977$699,167n/a$383,1330.00297%
Hail$14,044,272,826$35,536,83187,755$115,472$5,440$1,1840.000822%
Heat Wave$14,044,272,826$35,536,83187,755$85$2,981$2,122,929under 0.0001%
Hurricane$14,043,309,038$35,415,30287,746$849,032$65,792$57,8480.00605%
Ice Storm$14,044,272,826n/a87,755$16,575n/a$18,9650.000118%
Inland Flooding$13,989,466,089$6,830,1452,867$18,626,734$533$214,236n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$427,912,914n/a2,112$10,086n/a$3300.00236%
Lightning$14,044,272,826n/a87,755$21,559n/a$757,7370.000154%
Strong Wind$14,044,272,826$35,536,83187,755$197,541$4,210$583,7750.00141%$0
Tornado$14,044,272,826$35,536,83187,755$1,792,178$706$1,175,2270.0128%
Wildfire$1,381,370,019$4,238,40414,266$69,865$28$19,3260.00506%
Winter Weather$14,044,272,826$35,536,83187,755$3,125$52$5,967under 0.0001%

Totals since 2026-05-28 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 7 county-coded records, 7 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 1 zone-level records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population87,755
Building value (total, not at risk)$14,044,272,826
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$35,536,831
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$22,753,565
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$5,973,974
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Moderate
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0040400
of which: Prattville city0010100
of which: Wetumpka city0010100
of which: Millbrook city0010100
of which: Elmore County (unincorporated area)0010100
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0030300

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Elmore County (unincorporated area)0104060010100
Coosada town0150120000000
Deatsville town0104880000000
Eclectic town0104890000000
Elmore town0104900000000
Millbrook city0103700010100
Prattville city0100020050512Whole community, including the part in Autauga County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 0, FMA SRL 0, NFIP RL 1, NFIP SRL 0, any category 1.
Tallassee city0100690000000
Wetumpka city0100700010100

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0030300
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0010100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 4 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Elmore County, AL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 01051). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/al/01051/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org