Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Choctaw County, AL

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
01023
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Plan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligible. Plan: Choctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here, approved 2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($10,751,925 a year), Hurricane ($4,776,308) and Tornado ($2,517,594).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Plan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligible
Plan:
Choctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here
Approved:
2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here
Expires:
2031-09-27 once adopted
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

What changed since your last plan

Not available. Plan 111405 was approved by FEMA on 2026-09-28 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Choctaw County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleChoctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-09-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Butler townTownApproved, expires 2031-09-27Choctaw County (FEMA plan 111405)2026-09-282031-09-271,823
Gilbertown townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleChoctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-09-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Lisman townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleChoctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-09-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Needham townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleChoctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-09-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Pennington townTownApproved, expires 2031-09-27Choctaw County (FEMA plan 111405)2026-09-282031-09-271,823
Silas townTownApproved, expires 2031-09-27Choctaw County (FEMA plan 111405)2026-09-282031-09-271,823
Toxey townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleChoctaw County (FEMA plan 111405), pending adoption here2026-09-28 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2031-09-27 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$10,600,826$1,083$150,016$10,751,92546
2HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$4,677,309$40,030$58,970$4,776,3088
3TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,766,245$1,393$749,956$2,517,59430
4Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$16,404$9,152$1,006,067$1,031,6220No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
5EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$499,085n/a$96,770$595,855Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$36$77$215,626$215,7392
7Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$124,040$1,937$78,681$204,658140
8LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$20,520n/a$174,216$194,7364
9HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$137,526$586$22,466$160,57852
10Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$56,942n/a$4,088$61,0303
11WildfireVery LowVery Low$35,102$10$2,887$37,9980No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12DroughtRelatively LowVery Lown/a$21,745n/a$21,7453
13Winter WeatherVery LowRelatively Low$4,594$15$10,796$15,40411Includes 1 Sleet record (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
14LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$5,666n/a$275$5,9410No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9567 (Relatively Moderate, 84.2); tract 9568 (Relatively Moderate, 82.2); tract 9569 (Relatively Low, 77.6)
Hurricanetract 9569 (Very High, 98.0); tract 9568 (Very High, 97.4); tract 9567 (Relatively High, 96.5)
Landslidetract 9568 (Relatively Moderate, 96.2); tract 9569 (Relatively Low, 95.2); tract 9570 (Relatively Low, 91.0)
Tornadotract 9568 (Very High, 99.6); tract 9567 (Very High, 99.2); tract 9569 (Very High, 99.2)
Wildfiretract 9569 (Relatively Low, 87.1); tract 9568 (Relatively Low, 85.2); tract 9567 (Relatively Low, 84.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9567 is Census Tract 9567). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)3 records, 2016 (3 zone-level)92 days; 1 with a recorded value92 days (3 months), 2016-10-01 to 2016-12-31, a run of 3 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)70 records, 1965 to 20220.5 in to 2.75 in (median 0.88 in); 70 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2011-04-15; same size also recorded on 2011-04-15Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Butler town (22 records), Gilbertown town (7 records), Pennington town (5 records), Needham town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)2 records, 2000 to 2007 (2 zone-level)7 days to 31 days (median 19 days); 2 with a recorded valueJuly 2000 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson8 records, 1997 to 2020 (8 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 1998-09-25 to 1998-09-29, $90,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars); NWS zone ALZ051Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 2011 to 2017 (3 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2017-01-06, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars); NWS zone ALZ051Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)46 records, 1997 to 2023Flash Flood, 2015-04-16, $1,200,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Butler town (8 records), Pennington town (5 records), Gilbertown town (4 records), Lisman town (2 records), Toxey town (2 records), Needham town (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)4 records, 2001 to 2007Lightning, 2007-06-26, $60,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Butler town (3 records), Toxey town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)0
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)171 records, 1960 to 202443 kt (49 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 141 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-06-05Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Butler town (28 records), Gilbertown town (21 records), Pennington town (11 records), Needham town (8 records), Silas town (8 records), Toxey town (7 records), Lisman town (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)34 records, 1953 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 34 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1953-05-01, 100 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars), 2 direct deaths, 3 direct injuriesTornado, 2011-04-27, $8,600,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Butler town (2 records), Toxey town (2 records), Gilbertown town (1 record), Needham town (1 record), Silas town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)11 records, 2000 to 2025 (11 zone-level)No damage reported in 11 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 28 declarations covering 22 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Plan 111405 was approved by FEMA on 2026-09-28 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-09-262024-09-22EM-3618-ALEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Tornadono Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2020-12-102020-10-28DR-4573-ALMajor disasterHurricane ZetaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-09-142020-09-14EM-3545-ALEmergencyHurricane SallyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-05-212020-02-05DR-4546-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$103,734.69
2020-03-292020-01-20DR-4503-ALMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$668,442.69
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3472-ALEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4503
2017-11-162017-10-06DR-4349-ALMajor disasterHurricane NateHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2017-10-082017-10-06EM-3394-ALEmergencyHurricane NateHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4349
2017-09-112017-09-08EM-3389-ALEmergencyHurricane IrmaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2011-04-282011-04-15DR-1971-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$305,814.47
2011-04-272011-04-27EM-3319-ALEmergencySevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1971
2009-04-282009-03-25DR-1835-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes & Straight-LineInland Flooding; Tornado$62,601.92
2008-08-302008-08-29EM-3292-ALEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-102005-08-29EM-3237-ALEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1605
2005-08-292005-08-29DR-1605-ALMajor disasterHurricane KatrinaHurricane$263,418.92
2005-08-282005-08-28EM-3214-ALEmergencyHurricane KatrinaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1605
2005-07-102005-07-10DR-1593-ALMajor disasterHurricane DennisHurricane$18,769.40
2004-09-152004-09-13DR-1549-ALMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricane$206,488.05
1998-09-301998-09-25DR-1250-ALMajor disasterHurricane Georges - 18 Sep 98Hurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1997-07-251997-07-17DR-1185-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding,High Winds, Assoc with Hurr DannyHurricane; Inland Flooding; Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-151993-03-13EM-3096-ALEmergencySevere Snowfall, Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1990-03-211990-03-15DR-861-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1979-09-131979-09-13DR-598-ALMajor disasterHurricane FredericHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1979-04-181979-04-18DR-578-ALMajor disasterStorms, Wind, FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1979-03-171979-03-17EM-3074-ALEmergencyFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1977-07-201977-07-20EM-3045-ALEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1975-03-141975-03-14DR-458-ALMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-03-271973-03-27DR-369-ALMajor disasterTornadoes & FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1961-02-271961-02-27DR-109-ALMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Drought3011996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail70101955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave2001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane80121996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm3001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding46691996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning4001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1711621955 to 2026-06-30
Tornado341051950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather11211996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Sleet record.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2017-01-06Ice Storm$10,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ051 (CHOCTAW), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2016-10-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ051 (CHOCTAW), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2015-04-16Flash Flood$1,200,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)0, 0WATER VLY to WIMBERLYB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2011-04-27TornadoEF3, 25.19 mi within this county, 500 yd wide$8,600,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars)0, 0CYRIL to OAKCHIAB1-c most damaging: Tornado
2011-04-15Hail2.75 in$1,000,000 property; crops not reported (2011 dollars)0, 0NAHEOLAB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2007-06-26Lightning$60,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0TOXEYB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2005-03-31Flash Flooddamage not reported1, 0COUNTYWIDEdeaths or injuries recorded
2000-07-01Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone ALZ051 (CHOCTAW), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-09-25Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')$90,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ALZ051 (CHOCTAW), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
1998-06-05Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph), measurement type not recorded$300,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-01-07Flash Flood$20,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)1, 0COUNTYWIDEdeaths or injuries recorded
1953-05-01TornadoF4, 100 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars)2, 3location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (352 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.11event-days per yearabout 1.11 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)212005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought12.7event-days per yearabout 12.7 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)4062000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00208annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.208%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.77events per yearabout 2.77 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)105.2 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave7.58event-days per yearabout 7.58 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)1242005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.145events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)521851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.601event-days per yearabout 0.601 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)411946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.32event-days per yearabout 1.32 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)371996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.802events per year (modeled)about 0.8 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning72.4days per year with a strikeabout 72.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.31events per yearabout 2.31 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)881986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.802events per yearabout 0.8 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000605annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0605%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather1.58event-days per yearabout 1.58 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 9 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (30%)302005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202524300.8
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025137304.57
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202519300.633
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20258300.267
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave4 of 482.192.694.0Relatively High 4
Drought4 of 475.582.790.5Relatively Low 2, Very Low 2
Earthquake4 of 461.779.984.2Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2
Hail4 of 473.984.987.2Relatively Moderate 4
Heat Wave4 of 451.772.976.5Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Hurricane4 of 494.597.098.0Very High 2, Relatively High 2
Ice Storm4 of 463.484.989.7Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Inland Flooding4 of 493.699.299.5Very High 3, Relatively High 1
Landslide4 of 487.093.196.2Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 3
Lightning4 of 486.395.997.2Very High 2, Relatively High 2
Strong Wind4 of 471.986.488.9Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado4 of 491.699.299.6Very High 3, Relatively High 1
Wildfire4 of 483.285.087.1Relatively Low 4
Winter Weather4 of 451.569.172.6Relatively Moderate 4

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Choctaw County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 2$411,461.510 total; no approved plan
Butler townTownApproved, expires 2031-09-27FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$51,889.5363 total; not yet covered
Gilbertown townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$18,830.2833 total; no approved plan
Lisman townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$74,275.745 total; no approved plan
Needham townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded11 total; no approved plan
Pennington townTownApproved, expires 2031-09-27FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$11,543.7921 total; not yet covered
Silas townTownApproved, expires 2031-09-27FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$37,299.189 total; not yet covered
Toxey townTownPlan 111405 approved 2026-09-28, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$23,127.5012 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

Plan 111405 was approved by FEMA on 2026-09-28 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$16,404$9,152$1,006,0670.000234%
Droughtn/a$729,372n/an/a$21,745n/a2.98% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$11,584,492,184n/a12,665$499,085n/a$96,7700.00431%
Hail$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$137,526$586$22,4660.00196%
Heat Wave$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$36$77$215,626under 0.0001%
Hurricane$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$4,677,309$40,030$58,9700.0667%
Ice Storm$7,010,414,149n/a12,632$56,942n/a$4,0880.000812%
Inland Flooding$7,008,223,562$2,845,341900$10,600,826$1,083$150,016n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$129,347,921n/a278$5,666n/a$2750.00438%
Lightning$7,010,414,149n/a12,632$20,520n/a$174,2160.000293%
Strong Wind$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$124,040$1,937$78,6810.00177%
Tornado$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$1,766,245$1,393$749,9560.0252%
Wildfire$1,016,206,855$2,097,5093,232$35,102$10$2,8870.00345%
Winter Weather$7,010,414,149$10,638,34812,632$4,594$15$10,796under 0.0001%

Totals since the plan: not available. Plan 111405 was approved by FEMA on 2026-09-28 but is not yet adopted here, so no since-plan counts are given.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population12,632
Building value (total, not at risk)$7,010,414,149
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$10,638,348
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$18,020,321
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$2,570,812
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition3Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0131300
of which: Butler city0010100
of which: Choctaw County (unincorporated area)0121200
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0030300

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Choctaw County (unincorporated area)0103100121200
Butler town0100330010100
Gilbertown town0100340000000
Lisman town0104170000000
Needham town0101670000000
Pennington town0100350000000
Silas town0100360000000
Toxey town0100370000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0010100
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0121200
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 3 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Choctaw County, AL: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 01023). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/al/01023/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org