Northwest Arctic Borough, AK: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2024-01-25. Plan: Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412), approved 2019-01-26.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress.

Since the plan was approved on 2019-01-26: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 101 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Cold Wave ($9,074,413 a year), Earthquake ($343,270) and Inland Flooding ($302,015).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Terms used

EAL:: expected annual loss: FEMA's modeled average yearly loss from a hazard.
NRI:: FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025).
NFIP:: National Flood Insurance Program.
RL, SRL:: repetitive loss and severe repetitive loss: flood-insured properties with repeated claims (definitions in B2-c).
FMA, HMGP:: Flood Mitigation Assistance and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, FEMA mitigation grants.
PA:: FEMA Public Assistance: disaster aid to governments and some nonprofits.
Zone-level:: NOAA logged the event for a National Weather Service forecast zone, which may include parts of neighboring counties.
County-coded:: NOAA logged the event to this county.
FIPS:: the federal code for a place; 02188 is this area.
D0 to D4:: U.S. Drought Monitor categories, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4).
F/EF, EFU:: Fujita and Enhanced Fujita tornado ratings; EFU is an unrated tornado.
kt, CONUS:: knots (1 kt is about 1.15 mph); the contiguous United States.
CFR:: Code of Federal Regulations.
A4-a, E1-a:: other items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool (sources, and changes since the last plan).
Dollars:: nominal (as reported, labeled with the year), not adjusted for inflation.

Plan clock

Status:: Expired on 2024-01-25
Plan:: Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)
Approved:: 2019-01-26
Days since expiry:: 979
Update underway:: FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2019-01-26)

New federal declarations:: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4859-AK (Severe Storm and Flooding), DR-4893-AK (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong); also 2 COVID-19 declarations (not counted)
Storm Events records since approval:: 101 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1
Repeat-flood change:: this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

Jurisdiction	Type	Status	Plan	Approved	Expires	Days to expirynegative = days since expiry	Update underway
Northwest Arctic Borough	Organized Borough	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Ambler city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Buckland city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Deering city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Kiana city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Kivalina city	City	Approved, expires 2027-01-03	Kivalina City and Village MJHMP (FEMA plan 107905)	2022-01-04	2027-01-03	95	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Kobuk city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Kotzebue city	City	Approved, expires 2030-07-10	Kotzebue City LHMP (FEMA plan 109684)	2025-07-11	2030-07-10	1,379
Noorvik city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Selawik city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Shungnak city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	Northwest Arctic Borough and area cities, villages and native community MJHMP (FEMA plan 105412)	2019-01-26	2024-01-25	-979	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress

Plan 105412 lists 7 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
levee failure
flash flood as its own subtype
ice jams
debris flows
erosion (riverine and coastal)
land subsidence and sinkholes
expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EAL	Hazard	NRI risk rating	EAL rating	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year	Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count	Storm Events coverage note
1	Cold Wave	Relatively High	Relatively High	$4,681	$0	$9,069,731	$9,074,413	33
2	Earthquake	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$274,693	n/a	$68,577	$343,270		Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
3	Inland Flooding	Very Low	Very Low	$301,969	$0	$46	$302,015	14
4	Winter Weather	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	$26,832	$0	$79,934	$106,766	299
5	Wildfire	Relatively Low	Very Low	$64,863	$0	$3,681	$68,544	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
6	Landslide	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$486	n/a	$18,489	$18,975	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
7	Lightning	Very Low	Very Low	$291	n/a	$8,720	$9,011	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8	Ice Storm	Very Low	Very Low	$1,242	n/a	$527	$1,769	8
9	Avalanche	Very Low	Very Low	under $1	n/a	$1,053	$1,053	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
10	Volcanic Activity	Very Low	Very Low	under $1	n/a	$1	$1	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
11	Tornado	Very Low	Very Low	under $1	$0	under $1	under $1	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12	Coastal Flooding	No Rating	No Expected Annual Losses	$0	n/a	$0	$0	20
13	Drought	No Rating	No Expected Annual Losses	n/a	$0	n/a	$0	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14	Hail	No Rating	No Expected Annual Losses	$0	$0	$0	$0	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15	Strong Wind	No Rating	No Expected Annual Losses	$0	$0	$0	$0	74	Includes 71 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
	Heat Wave	Insufficient Data	Insufficient Data	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire, landslide, lightning, volcanic activity and heat wave records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: hurricane and tsunami. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

Hazard	Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanche	tract 1 (Very Low, 52.8)
Earthquake	tract 1 (Relatively Moderate, 84.1); tract 2 (Relatively Moderate, 80.7)
Landslide	tract 1 (Relatively Moderate, 99.1); tract 2 (Very Low, 31.9)
Tornado	tract 1 (Very Low, 0.2); tract 2 (Very Low, 0.2)
Volcanic Activity	tract 2 (Very Low, 64.1); tract 1 (Very Low, 43.7)
Wildfire	tract 1 (Relatively Moderate, 95.2); tract 2 (Very Low, 50.4)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1 is Census Tract 1). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

Hazard	Scale	Recordscount and years	Observed range	Worst recorded event	Most damaging (when different)	How it applies to jurisdictions	Note
Avalanche	none (count and damage only)	0
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tide	none in data (flood depth: FIRM)	20 records, 2002 to 2025 (20 zone-level)		Coastal Flood, 2025-10-08, $1,200,000 property; crops not reported (2025 dollars); NWS zone AKZ817		Countywide (zone-level records).	Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill	wind chill	33 records, 2001 to 2025 (33 zone-level)	1 day to 35 days (median 2.5 days); 18 with a recorded value	2012-01-01 to 2012-02-04 (9 records, 1 of them a monthly summary record), zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)	crop damage	0
Drought	U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)	0					Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
Earthquake	Modified Mercalli (local data)	0					Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	hail size (inches)	0
Excessive Heat, Heat	heat index (in event narratives)	0
Ice Storm	Sperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)	8 records, 2010 to 2021 (8 zone-level)		No damage reported in 8 records.		Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood	damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)	14 records, 2001 to 2024 (14 zone-level)		Flood, 2001-05-24, $482,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars); NWS zone AKZ216		Countywide (zone-level records).	Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flow	none (count and damage only)	0
Lightning	annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)	0					Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)	wind speed (kt and mph)	74 records, 2001 to 2025 (74 zone-level)	43 kt (49 mph) to 77 kt (89 mph) (median 57 kt (66 mph)); 74 with a recorded value	77 kt (89 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2014-12-07; NWS zone AKZ217	High Wind, 2005-03-20, $150,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2005 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Wind	wind speed (kt and mph)	0
Tornado	Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)	0					Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Volcanic Ash, Volcanic Ashfall	Volcanic Explosivity Index (local data)	0
Wildfire	acres burned (local data)	0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet	none in data (snowfall: local data)	299 records, 2001 to 2026 (299 zone-level)		Blizzard, 2023-02-22, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars); NWS zone AKZ209		Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow, lightning and volcanic ash, volcanic ashfall.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 7 declarations covering 5 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard	County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars	Flags	Notes
2025-10-22	2025-10-08	DR-4893-AK	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon Halong	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind	$5,463.91	new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-01-15	2024-10-20	DR-4859-AK	Major disaster	Severe Storm and Flooding	Inland Flooding; Winter Weather	$814,783.97	new since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-04-09	2020-01-20	DR-4533-AK	Major disaster	COVID-19 Pandemic	Non-natural, not counted	none placed in this county by FEMA's record; $80,467.23 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)	new since last plan
2020-03-13	2020-01-20	EM-3446-AK	Emergency	COVID-19	Non-natural, not counted	no Public Assistance recorded	new since last plan	same incident as DR-4533
2005-12-09	2005-09-22	DR-1618-AK	Major disaster	Severe Fall Storm, Tidal Surges, and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$0
2004-11-15	2004-10-18	DR-1571-AK	Major disaster	Severe Winter Storm, Tidal Surges and Flooding	Inland Flooding; Winter Weather	$207,405.44
1994-09-13	1994-08-08	DR-1039-AK	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard
1964-03-28	1964-03-28	DR-168-AK	Major disaster	Earthquake	Earthquake
1955-12-22	1955-12-22	DR-46-AK	Major disaster	Severe Hardship	Other, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1954-11-10	1954-11-10	DR-31-AK	Major disaster	Severe Hardship	Other, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1953-10-30	1953-10-30	DR-13-AK	Major disaster	Severe Hardship	Other, not an NRI hazard; not counted

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

7 Fire Management declarations (1970-06-26 to 1996-06-05) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Alaska county: 40 rows, $21,127,378.43; listed on the Alaska state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

Hazard	Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)	Since plan approvalrecords	Last 5 yearsrecords	Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters	Declared since approvalseparate disasters	Period	Statement
Avalanche	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Coastal Flooding	20	5	4	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave	33	1	1	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Drought	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake	0	0	0	0	0		Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	0	0	0	0	0	1955 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1955 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Heat Wave	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm	8	1	1	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding	14	4	2	5	2	1996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind	74	16	15	1	1	1955 to 2026-06-30	Includes 71 High Wind and 3 Strong Wind records.
Tornado	0	0	0	0	0	1950 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1950 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Volcanic Activity	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather	299	74	54	2	1	1996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

Date	Event type	Magnitude or extent	Damagenominal dollars	Deaths, injuriesdirect only	Location	Flags	Why listed
2025-10-08	Coastal Flood		$1,200,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2025 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AKZ817 (BALDWIN PENINSULA), zone-level	new since last plan; within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tide
2023-02-22	Blizzard		$50,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AKZ209 (BALDWIN PEN. & SELAWIK VALLEY), zone-level	new since last plan; within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2014-12-07	High Wind	77 kt (89 mph) measured gust	$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2014 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AKZ217 (UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VLYS), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2012-01-01	Cold/Wind Chill		$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AKZ209 (BALDWIN PEN. & SELAWIK VALLEY), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2006-02-18	Winter Weather		damage not reported	1, 0	NWS zone AKZ216 (LOWER KOYUKUK MIDDLE YKN VLYS), zone-level		deaths or injuries recorded
2005-03-20	High Wind	56 kt (64 mph) measured gust	$150,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2005 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AKZ216 (LOWER KOYUKUK MIDDLE YKN VLYS), zone-level		B1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2001-05-24	Flood		$482,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2001 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone AKZ216 (LOWER KOYUKUK MIDDLE YKN VLYS), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (448 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

Hazard	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row	Unit	In plain terms	Descriptor	Descriptor basis	NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)	NRI period	Location	Note
Avalanche	0.01	events per year	about 1 in 100 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	0	1994 to 2023 (30 years)	see B1-f	0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Coastal Flooding	0	events per year at a location (modeled)	none modeled	Likely	Storm Events records in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f	NRI models no coastal flooding event-days here (modeled); Storm Events has a record in 14 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which records events NRI's definition leaves out.
Cold Wave	9.76	event-days per year	about 9.76 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)	165	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Drought	0	event-days per year	none modeled		Storm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)	0	2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)	countywide	No Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake	0.0268	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 2.68%			not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail	0	events per year	none modeled	Unlikely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	0.0 (modeled)	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Heat Wave		event-days per year			Storm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)		2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide	No Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Ice Storm	0.0149	event-days per year	about 0.0149 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)	0	1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)	countywide
Inland Flooding	0.01	event-days per year	about 0.01 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)	0	1996 to 2023 (28 years)	see B1-f
Landslide	0.643	events per year (modeled)	about 0.64 per year	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Lightning	16.1	days per year with a strike	about 16.1 days per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)	countywide
Strong Wind	0	events per year	none modeled	Unlikely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	0	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Tornado	0.000179	events per year	about 1 in 5,572 years	Unlikely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)	see B1-f
Volcanic Activity	0.0002	annual probability	about 1 in 5,000 years	Unlikely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Wildfire	0.00153	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.153%		Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather	21.7	event-days per year	about 21.7 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 24 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (80%)	368	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

Unit	Descriptor	Definition
events per year	Highly likely	1 or more per year
events per year	Likely	about once in 1 to 10 years
events per year	Possible	about once in 10 to 100 years
events per year	Unlikely	less than once in 100 years
annual probability	Likely	10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probability	Possible	1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probability	Unlikely	under 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)	Highly likely	event-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)	Likely	event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)	Possible	event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-days	Highly likely	cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

Hazard	Band	Years	Years in period
Hail	1.00-1.99 in	1996 to 2025	30
Hail	2.00 in+	1996 to 2025	30
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	50-64 kt	1996 to 2025	30
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	65 kt+	1996 to 2025	30
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	unmeasured or below 50 kt	1996 to 2025	30
Tornado	EF0-1	1996 to 2025	30
Tornado	EF2-3	1996 to 2025	30
Tornado	EF4-5	1996 to 2025	30
Tornado	unrated (EFU)	1996 to 2025	30

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

Hazard	Tractsrated of all	NRI risk score, 0 to 100			Tracts by rating
Hazard	Tractsrated of all	Min	Median	Max	Tracts by rating
Avalanche	1 of 2	52.8	52.8	52.8	Very Low 1, Not Applicable 1
Coastal Flooding	0 of 2				No Rating 2
Cold Wave	2 of 2	100.0	100.0	100.0	Very High 2
Drought	0 of 2				No Rating 2
Earthquake	2 of 2	80.7	82.4	84.1	Relatively Moderate 2
Hail	0 of 2				No Rating 2
Heat Wave	0 of 2				Insufficient Data 2
Ice Storm	2 of 2	16.4	19.8	23.2	Very Low 2
Inland Flooding	2 of 2	7.3	14.3	21.4	Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Landslide	2 of 2	31.9	65.5	99.1	Relatively Moderate 1, Very Low 1
Lightning	2 of 2	19.2	35.4	51.6	Relatively Moderate 1, Very Low 1
Strong Wind	0 of 2				No Rating 2
Tornado	2 of 2	0.2	0.2	0.2	Very Low 2
Volcanic Activity	2 of 2	43.7	53.9	64.1	Very Low 2
Wildfire	2 of 2	50.4	72.8	95.2	Relatively Moderate 1, Very Low 1
Winter Weather	2 of 2	99.0	99.4	99.7	Very High 2

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, ice storm, lightning and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

This county has 2 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 2.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

Jurisdiction	Type	Plan status	Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition	Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars	Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan	Notes
Northwest Arctic Borough	Organized Borough	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$63,273.55	0 total; 0 since its plan
Ambler city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan
Buckland city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan
Deering city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan
Kiana city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan
Kivalina city	City	Approved, expires 2027-01-03	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$114,618.88	1 total; 0 since its plan
Kobuk city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25		no Public Assistance recorded	1 total; 1 since its plan	No NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Kotzebue city	City	Approved, expires 2030-07-10	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1	$791,374.76	0 total; 0 since its plan
Noorvik city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan
Selawik city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan
Shungnak city	City	Expired on 2024-01-25	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	0 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

Hazard	Building exposuremodeled dollars	Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars	Population exposedpeople	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted	Zone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zone	Public Assistance since plannominal dollars; see note	Note
Avalanche	$83,140	n/a	3	under $1	n/a	$1,053	under 0.0001%
Coastal Flooding	$0	n/a	0	$0	n/a	$0		$1,200,000		building exposure is 0 in NRI
Cold Wave	$1,377,742,460	$0	7,726	$4,681	$0	$9,069,731	0.00034%	$0
Drought	n/a	$0	n/a	n/a	$0	n/a				agriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake	$2,272,466,460	n/a	7,793	$274,693	n/a	$68,577	0.0121%
Hail	$1,377,742,460	$0	7,726	$0	$0	$0	0%
Heat Wave	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a				NRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Ice Storm	$1,377,742,460	n/a	7,726	$1,242	n/a	$527	under 0.0001%	$0
Inland Flooding	$1,368,276,678	$0	518	$301,969	$0	$46	n/a (see note)	$0	$820,247.88	NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide	$23,177,423	n/a	76	$486	n/a	$18,489	0.0021%
Lightning	$1,377,742,460	n/a	7,726	$291	n/a	$8,720	under 0.0001%
Strong Wind	$1,377,742,460	$0	7,726	$0	$0	$0	0%	$0	$5,463.91
Tornado	$1,377,742,460	$0	7,726	under $1	$0	under $1	under 0.0001%
Volcanic Activity	$1,377,742,460	n/a	7,726	under $1	n/a	$1	under 0.0001%
Wildfire	$129,597,298	$0	1,212	$64,863	$0	$3,681	0.0501%
Winter Weather	$1,377,742,460	$0	7,726	$26,832	$0	$79,934	0.00195%	$60,000	$814,783.97

Totals since 2019-01-26 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 0 county-coded records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 101 zone-level records, 95 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $1,260,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $820,247.88 on 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

Measure	Value
Population	7,726
Building value (total, not at risk)	$1,377,742,460
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)	$0
NRI risk rating (all hazards)	Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards	$675,058
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)	$9,250,761
Social vulnerability rating	Very High
Community resilience rating	Very Low
NRI version	December 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

Definition	Properties	Severe repetitive loss	Properties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0	Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	1	Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

Scope	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
County total	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
of which: Kotzebue city	0	0	1	0	1	0	1

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

Jurisdiction	NFIP community ID	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Currently insuredproperties
Northwest Arctic Borough	020121	0	0	0
Ambler city	020031	0	0	0
Buckland city	020105	0	0	0
Deering city	020039	0	0	0
Kiana city	020054	0	0	0
Kivalina city	020056	0	0	0
Kotzebue city	020059	1	1	1
Noorvik city	020071	0	0	0
Selawik city	020081	0	0	0
Shungnak city	020085	0	0	0

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy group	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Currently insuredproperties
single-family residential	1	1	1
2 to 4 unit residential	0	0	0
other residential	0	0	0
non-residential	0	0	0
not reported	0	0	0

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Northwest Arctic Borough, AK: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 02188). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ak/02188/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org