Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Bethel Census Area, AK

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
02050
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No county-level plan row in FEMA data.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Cold Wave ($6,635,727 a year), Inland Flooding ($759,399) and Wildfire ($372,225).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

No county-level plan row in FEMA data

What changed since your last plan

Not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 24 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underway
Akiak cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-22Akiak HMP (FEMA plan 108472)2023-03-232028-03-22539
Aniak cityCityApproved, expires 2027-02-07Aniak HMP (FEMA plan 107938)2022-02-082027-02-07130
Atmautluak CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2020-11-03Atmautluak CDP and Village MJHMP (FEMA plan 101410)2015-11-032020-11-03-2,157
Bethel cityCityApproved, expires 2031-07-19Bethel LHMP (FEMA plan 110096)2026-07-202031-07-191,753
Chefornak cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-21Chefornak City and Village MJHMP (FEMA plan 108579)2023-03-222028-03-21538
Chuathbaluk cityCityExpired on 2023-05-07Chuathbaluk City and Village MJHMP (FEMA plan 104636)2018-05-082023-05-07-1,242
Eek cityCityExpired on 2019-09-12Eek HMP (FEMA plan 25031)2014-09-122019-09-12-2,575
Goodnews Bay cityCityExpired on 2023-05-31Goodnews Bay City and Native Village MJHMP (FEMA plan 104765)2018-06-012023-05-31-1,218
Kwethluk cityCityExpired on 2015-02-23Kwethluk HMP (FEMA plan 25078)2010-02-232015-02-23-4,237
Lower Kalskag cityCityExpired on 2018-10-30Lower Kalskag HMP (FEMA plan 25086)2013-10-302018-10-30-2,892
Mekoryuk cityCityExpired on 2020-11-05Mekoryuk HMP (FEMA plan 101498)2015-11-052020-11-05-2,155
Napakiak cityCityExpired on 2026-02-23Napakiak City and Village MJHMP (FEMA plan 107072)2021-02-242026-02-23-219FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Napaskiak cityCityExpired on 2019-12-30Napaskiak HMP (FEMA plan 100696)2014-12-302019-12-30-2,466
Newtok CDPOtherNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Nightmute cityCityExpired on 2020-12-08Nightmute HMP (FEMA plan 101412)2015-12-082020-12-08-2,122
Nunapitchuk cityCityExpired on 2023-09-13Nunapitchuck HMP (FEMA plan 105154)2018-09-142023-09-13-1,113
Quinhagak cityCityNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Red Devil CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2013-09-12Red Devil HMP (FEMA plan 25118)2008-09-122013-09-12-4,766
Sleetmute CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2019-02-14Sleetmute HMP (FEMA plan 25129)2014-02-142019-02-14-2,785
Toksook Bay cityCityExpired on 2019-10-15Toksook Bay HMP (FEMA plan 25139)2014-10-152019-10-15-2,542FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Tuluksak CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2018-08-08Tuluksak HMP (FEMA plan 25140)2013-08-082018-08-08-2,975
Tuntutuliak CDPAlaska Native VillageNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Tununak CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2020-11-05Tununak HMP (FEMA plan 101409)2015-11-052020-11-05-2,155
Upper Kalskag cityCityExpired on 2018-12-06Upper Kalskag HMP (FEMA plan 25143)2013-12-062018-12-06-2,855

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$9,688$0$6,626,039$6,635,7277
2Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$759,399$0$0$759,39969
3WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$351,073$0$21,152$372,22511
4Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$51,486$0$185,114$236,601329
5EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$112,000n/a$45,800$157,801Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6LightningRelatively LowVery Low$2,030n/a$56,635$58,6650No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
7TsunamiVery LowVery Low$54,262n/a$0$54,2620No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8AvalancheRelatively LowVery Low$4n/a$8,065$8,0705
9Ice StormVery LowVery Low$35n/a$1,271$1,30611
10TornadoVery LowVery Low$410$0$373$7832
11LandslideVery LowVery Low$25n/a$309$3350Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
12Strong WindVery LowVery Low$65$0$124$18953Includes 49 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
13HailVery LowVery Low$67$0$15$827
14Volcanic ActivityVery LowVery Lowunder $1n/a$4$40No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15Coastal FloodingNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0n/a$0$027
16DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
Heat WaveInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, tsunami, landslide, volcanic activity and heat wave records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: hurricane. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 1 (Very Low, 66.9); tract 3 (Very Low, 66.7)
Earthquaketract 3 (Relatively Moderate, 80.5); tract 2 (Relatively Low, 41.4); tract 1 (Very Low, 39.8)
Landslidetract 3 (Relatively Low, 88.4); tract 1 (Relatively Low, 83.6); tract 2 (Very Low, 19.4)
Tornadotract 2 (Very Low, 2.2); tract 1 (Very Low, 2.1); tract 3 (Very Low, 0.3)
Tsunamitract 1 (Relatively Low, 70.6)
Volcanic Activitytract 1 (Very Low, 77.4); tract 2 (Very Low, 75.6); tract 3 (Very Low, 72.6)
Wildfiretract 3 (Relatively High, 97.4); tract 2 (Relatively Moderate, 96.0); tract 1 (Relatively Moderate, 93.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1 is Census Tract 1). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)5 records, 2000 to 2022 (5 zone-level)Avalanche, 2003-02-06, $10,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars); NWS zone AKZ145Countywide (zone-level records).
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)27 records, 2002 to 2025 (27 zone-level)Coastal Flood, 2011-11-11, $20,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone AKZ155Countywide (zone-level records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill7 records, 2012 to 2023 (7 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 2 days); 6 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2022-02-05 to 2022-02-08, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)7 records, 2004 to 2018 (7 zone-level)No hail record can stand as this county's largest: the 7 records with a recorded size reached this county only through an NWS zone that covers more than one county, so the hail may have occurred outside this county (zone-level); they are counted as occurrences.Countywide (zone-level records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)11 records, 2002 to 2025 (11 zone-level)No damage reported in 11 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)69 records, 2001 to 2025 (69 zone-level)Flood, 2006-08-18, $20,000,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars); NWS zone AKZ145Countywide (zone-level records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)50 records, 2000 to 2025 (50 zone-level)39 kt (45 mph) to 93 kt (107 mph) (median 65 kt (75 mph)); 50 with a recorded value93 kt (107 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2009-02-25; NWS zone AKZ161High Wind, 2013-10-24, $200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2013 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)3 records, 2007 to 2008 (3 zone-level)No thunderstorm wind record can stand as this county's strongest: the 3 records with a recorded speed reached this county only through an NWS zone that covers more than one county, so the wind may have occurred outside this county (zone-level); they are counted as occurrences.Countywide (zone-level records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)2 records, 2004 (2 zone-level)No tornado record can stand as this county's worst: the 2 records reached this county only through an NWS zone that covers more than one county, so the tornado may have occurred outside this county (zone-level); they are counted as occurrences.Countywide (zone-level records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0
Volcanic Ash, Volcanic AshfallVolcanic Explosivity Index (local data)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)11 records, 2015 to 2026 (11 zone-level)Wildfire, 2015-06-14, $750,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars), 4 direct injuries (reported for the zone); NWS zone AKZ145Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)329 records, 2001 to 2026 (329 zone-level)Blizzard, 2009-02-25, $200,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars); NWS zone AKZ155Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow, lightning, tsunami and volcanic ash, volcanic ashfall.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 20 declarations covering 18 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-10-222025-10-08DR-4893-AKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and Remnants of Typhoon HalongInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$3,583,283.64within last 5 yearspart of county
2023-08-232023-05-12DR-4730-AKMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$1,827,516.18within last 5 yearspart of county
2022-09-232022-09-15DR-4672-AKMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding; Landslide$4,241,862.76within last 5 yearspart of county
2022-08-262022-05-08DR-4667-AKMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingnone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $1,551,438.10 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)within last 5 yearspart of county
2020-04-092020-01-20DR-4533-AKMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$181,646.53
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3446-AKEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4533; part of county
2014-01-232013-11-05DR-4162-AKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind$10,902.41part of county
2013-06-252013-05-17DR-4122-AKMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$2,182.09part of county
2011-12-222011-11-08DR-4050-AKMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter Weather$0part of county
2011-06-102011-05-08DR-1992-AKMajor disasterIce Jam and FloodingInland Flooding$716,530.17part of county
2009-06-112009-04-28DR-1843-AKMajor disasterFlooding and Ice JamsInland Flooding$424,017.74part of county
2006-10-272006-08-03DR-1666-AKMajor disasterFireWildfirenone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $247,393.81 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)part of county
2006-08-042006-05-13DR-1657-AKMajor disasterSnow Melt and Ice Jam FloodingInland Flooding$125,795.38part of county
2005-12-092005-09-22DR-1618-AKMajor disasterSevere Fall Storm, Tidal Surges, and FloodingInland Flooding$458,090.88part of county
2004-11-152004-10-18DR-1571-AKMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Tidal Surges and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter Weather$700,237.11part of county
2002-06-262002-04-27DR-1423-AKMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$1,862,664.35
2000-02-171999-12-21DR-1316-AKMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and AvalanchesWinter Weathernone placed in this county by FEMA's record; $49,077.34 for this declaration is not placed in any county (see the state page)
1991-05-301991-04-15DR-909-AKMajor disasterHeavy Snow, Ice Jams & FloodingWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1989-06-101989-05-01DR-832-AKMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-101989-01-15DR-826-AKMajor disasterSevere FreezingCold Waveno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-281964-03-28DR-168-AKMajor disasterEarthquakeEarthquake
1955-12-221955-12-22DR-46-AKMajor disasterSevere HardshipOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1954-11-101954-11-10DR-31-AKMajor disasterSevere HardshipOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted
1953-10-301953-10-30DR-13-AKMajor disasterSevere HardshipOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

7 Fire Management declarations (1970-06-26 to 1996-06-05) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Alaska county: 40 rows, $21,127,378.43; listed on the Alaska state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche5101996 to 2026-06-30
Coastal Flooding271401996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave7611996 to 2026-06-30
Drought0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail7001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm11101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding6924141996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0011996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind53421955 to 2026-06-30Includes 49 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado2001950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Volcanic Activity0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire111011996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather3299341996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-10-12Coastal Floodproperty not reported; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)1, 1NWS zone AKZ755 (KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND NUNIVAK ISLAND), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2022-02-05Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ155 (KUSKOKWIM DELTA), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2015-06-14Wildfire$750,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)0, 4NWS zone AKZ145 (SUSITNA VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2015-03-14Avalanche$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)1, 0NWS zone AKZ145 (SUSITNA VALLEY), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2013-10-24High Wind39 kt (45 mph) measured sustained$200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2013 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ145 (SUSITNA VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2012-09-19Flood$10,370,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)1, 0NWS zone AKZ145 (SUSITNA VALLEY), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2011-11-11Coastal Flood$20,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ155 (KUSKOKWIM DELTA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tide
2011-01-23Blizzard$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)1, 0NWS zone AKZ155 (KUSKOKWIM DELTA), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2009-02-25Blizzard$200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ155 (KUSKOKWIM DELTA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2009-02-25High Wind93 kt (107 mph) measured gust$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ161 (BRISTOL BAY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2006-08-18Flood$20,000,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2006 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ145 (SUSITNA VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2003-02-06Avalanche$10,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2003 dollars)0, 0NWS zone AKZ145 (SUSITNA VALLEY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Avalanche

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (521 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.0333events per yearabout 1 in 30 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)11994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f
Coastal Flooding0events per year at a location (modeled)none modeledLikelyStorm Events records in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNRI models no coastal flooding event-days here (modeled); Storm Events has a record in 15 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which records events NRI's definition leaves out.
Cold Wave4.54event-days per yearabout 4.54 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)81.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.0575annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 5.75%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.00109events per yearabout 1 in 915 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)0.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Waveevent-days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Ice Storm0.0149event-days per yearabout 0.0149 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)01946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.005event-days per yearabout 0.005 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)01996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.377events per year (modeled)about 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning21.3days per year with a strikeabout 21.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.000505events per yearabout 1 in 1,982 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)11986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0482events per yearabout 1 in 21 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunami0.0138annual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)chance at the county's most exposed location in a year: 1.38%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Volcanic Activity0.031annual probabilityabout 1 in 32 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Wildfire0.00266annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.266%LikelyStorm Events records in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather11.1event-days per yearabout 11.1 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 25 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (83.3%)1972005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 20250300
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20250300
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche2 of 366.766.866.9Very Low 2, Not Applicable 1
Coastal Flooding0 of 3No Rating 3
Cold Wave3 of 391.699.9100.0Very High 2, Relatively High 1
Drought0 of 3No Rating 3
Earthquake3 of 339.841.480.5Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Hail3 of 31.01.21.6Very Low 3
Heat Wave0 of 3Insufficient Data 3
Ice Storm3 of 32.27.216.8Very Low 3
Inland Flooding3 of 34.539.643.5Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Landslide3 of 319.483.688.4Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Lightning3 of 344.283.390.6Relatively High 2, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind3 of 30.31.72.0Very Low 3
Tornado3 of 30.32.12.2Very Low 3
Tsunami1 of 370.670.670.6Relatively Low 1, Not Applicable 2
Volcanic Activity3 of 372.675.677.4Very Low 3
Wildfire3 of 393.796.097.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 2
Winter Weather3 of 385.299.8100.0Very High 2, Relatively High 1

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

This county has 3 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 3.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Akiak cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$14,888.760 total; 0 since its plan
Aniak cityCityApproved, expires 2027-02-07FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5$261,050.998 total; 4 since its planIncludes $160,266.18 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4533-AK).
Atmautluak CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2020-11-03no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Bethel cityCityApproved, expires 2031-07-19FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$98,431.267 total; not yet covered
Chefornak cityCityApproved, expires 2028-03-21no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Chuathbaluk cityCityExpired on 2023-05-07no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Eek cityCityExpired on 2019-09-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded5 total; 3 since its plan
Goodnews Bay cityCityExpired on 2023-05-31$00 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Kwethluk cityCityExpired on 2015-02-23FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$249,481.935 total; 4 since its plan
Lower Kalskag cityCityExpired on 2018-10-30FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$54,006.753 total; 2 since its plan
Mekoryuk cityCityExpired on 2020-11-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,810.460 total; 0 since its plan
Napakiak cityCityExpired on 2026-02-23$3,329,455.735 total; 4 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Napaskiak cityCityExpired on 2019-12-30FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Newtok CDPOtherNo approved plan on recordno Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Nightmute cityCityExpired on 2020-12-08$1,189,247.400 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Nunapitchuk cityCityExpired on 2023-09-13$90,841.580 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row. Includes $7,338.34 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4533-AK).
Quinhagak cityCityNo approved plan on record$454,374.630 total; no approved planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Red Devil CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2013-09-12no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Sleetmute CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2019-02-14no Public Assistance recorded3 total; 2 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Toksook Bay cityCityExpired on 2019-10-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$12,9600 total; 0 since its plan
Tuluksak CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2018-08-08no Public Assistance recorded2 total; 1 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Tuntutuliak CDPAlaska Native VillageNo approved plan on recordno Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Tununak CDPUnincorporatedExpired on 2020-11-05no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row.
Upper Kalskag cityCityExpired on 2018-12-06$77,381.060 total; 0 since its planNo NFIP community ID on this jurisdiction's plan row. Includes $14,042.01 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4533-AK).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$1,205,977n/a4$4n/a$8,0650.00035%
Coastal Flooding$0n/a0$0n/a$0building exposure is 0 in NRI
Cold Wave$2,902,613,532$018,557$9,688$0$6,626,0390.000334%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$4,766,287,931n/a18,666$112,000n/a$45,8000.00235%
Hail$2,907,755,663$018,633$67$0$15under 0.0001%
Heat Waven/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Ice Storm$2,907,755,663n/a18,633$35n/a$1,271under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$2,883,541,209$00$759,399$0$0n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$42,720,926n/a97$25n/a$309under 0.0001%
Lightning$2,907,755,663n/a18,633$2,030n/a$56,635under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$2,907,755,663$018,633$65$0$124under 0.0001%
Tornado$2,907,755,663$018,633$410$0$373under 0.0001%
Tsunami$18,478,612n/a35$54,262n/a$00.294%
Volcanic Activity$2,907,755,663n/a18,633under $1n/a$4under 0.0001%
Wildfire$401,506,295$04,065$351,073$0$21,1520.0874%
Winter Weather$2,902,613,532$018,557$51,486$0$185,1140.00177%

Totals since the plan: not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population18,633
Building value (total, not at risk)$2,907,755,663
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$0
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$1,340,545
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$6,944,903
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition7Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0070701
of which: Aniak city0050500
of which: Bethel city0010101
of which: Kwethluk city0010100

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Akiak city0201010000000
Aniak city0200330050500
Bethel city0201040010101
Eek city0200430000000
Kwethluk city0201300010100
Lower Kalskag city0200610000000
Mekoryuk city0200630000000
Napaskiak city0200660000000
Toksook Bay city0200910000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential0070701
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 7 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Bethel Census Area, AK: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 02050). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ak/02050/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org