Hazard Plain Automated baseline

St. Johnsbury town, VT

Risk-assessment baseline packet (county-level sections from Caledonia County)

Town FIPS:
5000562200
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-06-29. Plan: 2026 St. Johnsbury, Vermont Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (FEMA plan 112032), approved 2026-06-30.

Sections B1-a, B1-b, B1-c, B1-d, B1-e, B2-a and B2-b use Caledonia County data (county FIPS 50005; each heading says so); the plan clock, B1-f and B2-c are for St. Johnsbury town.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-06-30: no new hazard declaration; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($7,829,769 a year), Cold Wave ($1,060,094) and Hurricane ($739,854).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-06-29
Plan:
2026 St. Johnsbury, Vermont Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (FEMA plan 112032)
Approved:
2026-06-30
Days to expiry:
1,733

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-06-30)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval (Caledonia County, county-level):
not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet
Repetitive loss now (this town):
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for this town

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
St. Johnsbury townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-292026 St. Johnsbury, Vermont Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (FEMA plan 112032)2026-06-302031-06-291,733

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

County-level: Caledonia County.

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$7,703,585$26,916$99,268$7,829,76966
2Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$141$17,074$1,042,879$1,060,09430Includes 3 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$661,156$62,618$16,080$739,8540Declared 4 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
4Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$110,271$1,280$124,959$236,510182Includes 16 High Wind and 29 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$190,430n/a$33,427$223,857Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$16,483n/a$206,461$222,94510
7Heat WaveVery LowVery Lowunder $1$37,686$88,006$125,6929
8Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$75,131$94$30,556$105,781319
9Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$82,613n/a$3,319$85,9311
10TornadoVery LowVery Low$21,222$172$53,015$74,4081
11HailVery LowVery Low$3,837$2,648$14,146$20,63057
12LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$8,103n/a$6,886$14,9890Declared 4 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$6,374$5$533$6,9120No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14AvalancheVery LowVery Low$0n/a$131$1310No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and wildfire records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

County-level: Caledonia County.

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 9571 (Very Low, 20.9); tract 9578 (Very Low, 20.7); tract 9577 (Very Low, 19.5)
Earthquaketract 9574 (Relatively Low, 62.7); tract 9575 (Relatively Low, 52.1); tract 9578 (Relatively Low, 45.7)
Hurricanetract 9574 (Relatively Moderate, 79.4); tract 9578 (Relatively Low, 78.1); tract 9570 (Relatively Low, 76.6)
Landslidetract 9578 (Relatively Moderate, 96.1); tract 9579 (Relatively Moderate, 95.7); tract 9570 (Relatively Low, 95.6)
Tornadotract 9574 (Very Low, 25.3); tract 9578 (Very Low, 23.6); tract 9570 (Very Low, 19.5)
Wildfiretract 9570 (Very Low, 68.6); tract 9578 (Very Low, 66.8); tract 9579 (Very Low, 64.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9571 is Census Tract 9571). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

County-level: Caledonia County.

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)Where in the countyNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill27 records, 1996 to 2026 (27 zone-level)1 day to 28 days (median 2 days); 26 with a recorded valueFebruary 2015 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage3 records, 2005 to 2023 (3 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2023-05-18, $150,000 crop damage (2023 dollars); NWS zone VTZ007Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)64 records, 1964 to 20230.75 in to 1.75 in (median 1 in); 61 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2016-07-18; same size also recorded on 1979-06-05, 1998-09-21, 2000-05-07, 2010-06-05, 2011-05-26Hail, 2011-05-26, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming places in the county: Burke town (12 records), St. Johnsbury town (9 records), Lyndonville village (7 records), Danville town (4 records), Hardwick town (4 records), Barnet town (3 records), Lyndon town (3 records), Newark town (2 records), Stannard town (2 records), Walden town (2 records); and 5 more places (see the Excel file).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)9 records, 1996 to 2025 (9 zone-level)1 day to 6 days (median 2 days); 5 with a recorded value6 consecutive days, 2020-06-18 to 2020-06-23, zone-levelHeat, 2012-03-17, $0 property; $750,000 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 1998 (1 zone-level)Ice Storm, 1998-01-06, $80,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars); NWS zone VTZ007Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)66 records, 1996 to 2026 (11 zone-level)Flood, 2011-08-28, $4,000,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming places in the county: St. Johnsbury town (11 records), Lyndon town (8 records), Danville town (6 records), Hardwick town (6 records), Lyndonville village (4 records), Peacham town (4 records), Ryegate town (3 records), Sheffield town (3 records), Wheelock town (3 records), Barnet town (2 records); and 6 more places (see the Excel file). Zone-level records (11) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)10 records, 1999 to 2014Lightning, 2007-05-11, $150,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)Event records naming places in the county: Newark town (2 records), St. Johnsbury town (2 records), Burke town (1 record), Groton town (1 record), Hardwick town (1 record), Lyndonville village (1 record), Walden town (1 record), Wheelock town (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)45 records, 1996 to 2026 (45 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 60 kt (69 mph) (median 43 kt (49 mph)); 39 with a recorded value60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2007-04-16; NWS zone VTZ007Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)166 records, 1976 to 202550 kt (58 mph) to 70 kt (81 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 114 with a recorded value70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-07-04; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2006-07-18Thunderstorm Wind, 2000-05-09, $200,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)Event records naming places in the county: St. Johnsbury town (17 records), Burke town (16 records), Hardwick town (16 records), Sutton town (13 records), Danville town (11 records), Barnet town (7 records), Groton town (7 records), Lyndon town (7 records), Wheelock town (7 records), Peacham town (6 records); and 7 more places (see the Excel file).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)1 record, 2010F/EF0; 1 with a recorded valueEF0 tornado, 2010-08-03, 0.14 mi within this county, 50 yd wide, $25,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)Event records naming places in the county: Peacham town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)319 records, 1996 to 2026 (319 zone-level)Heavy Snow, 2007-02-14, $200,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone VTZ007Countywide (zone-level records).

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

County-level: Caledonia County (federal declarations, statewide declarations and Storm Events history).

Federal declarations for this county: 31 declarations covering 27 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Storm Events records since the plan: not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-09-262024-07-29DR-4826-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$6,540,800.53within last 5 years
2024-08-202024-07-09DR-4810-VTMajor disasterSevere Storm, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide$15,852,841.19within last 5 years
2024-08-082024-08-08EM-3609-VTEmergencyTropical Depression DebbyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2023-07-142023-07-07DR-4720-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$9,868,285.55within last 5 years
2023-07-102023-07-09EM-3595-VTEmergencyFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4720
2021-08-222021-08-22EM-3567-VTEmergencyTropical Storm HenriHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-04-082020-01-20DR-4532-VTMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$400,670.88
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3437-VTEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4532
2017-08-162017-06-29DR-4330-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$371,916.61
2014-06-112014-04-15DR-4178-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$45,601.87
2014-01-292013-12-20DR-4163-VTMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$48,694.83
2013-08-022013-06-25DR-4140-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$229,521.78
2011-09-012011-08-27DR-4022-VTMajor disasterTropical Storm IreneHurricane$1,691,755.43
2011-08-292011-08-26EM-3338-VTEmergencyHurricane IreneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4022
2011-07-082011-05-26DR-4001-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$2,799,333.44
2008-09-122008-07-21DR-1790-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$587,185.48
2008-08-152008-07-18DR-1784-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms, a Tornado, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2007-08-032007-07-09DR-1715-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$199,439.24
2007-05-042007-04-15DR-1698-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$116,080.23
2004-09-232004-08-12DR-1559-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$353,983.17
2002-07-122002-06-05DR-1428-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$413,886.69
1999-11-101999-09-16DR-1307-VTMajor disasterTropical Storm FloydHurricane; Inland Flooding$52,362.06
1998-06-301998-06-17DR-1228-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1997-07-251997-07-15DR-1184-VTMajor disasterExcessive Rainfall, High Winds, and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1995-08-161995-08-04DR-1063-VTMajor disasterExcessive Rainfall, FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1992-03-181992-03-11DR-938-VTMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Ice Jams & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1990-07-251990-07-04DR-875-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1989-09-111989-08-04DR-840-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1984-06-181984-06-06DR-712-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1976-08-051976-08-05DR-518-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Winds & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1973-07-061973-07-06DR-397-VTMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, & LandslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslideno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: the whole county's applicants, including state agencies FEMA files there (federal share obligated, nominal dollars); statewide rows are on the state page; this town's own matched Public Assistance is in B1-f.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-171964-03-17DR-164-VTMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding
1963-11-271963-11-27DR-160-VTMajor disasterDrought & Impending FreezeDrought

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 2 rows, $151,521.36

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4695-VT2023-03-20Severe Storm and FloodingTown of Hardwick Electric Department$66,356.30
DR-4207-VT2015-02-03Severe Winter StormDO NOT USE Hardwick Electric Department$85,165.06

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave3039001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake00000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail6401001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave901001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane000401996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 4 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Ice Storm100101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding663202301996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide000401996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 4 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind211116101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 16 High Wind and 29 Strong Wind records.
Tornado100101950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather319843001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-07-10Flash Flood$500,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)1, 0RICKER MILLSwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-07-10Flash Flood$3,000,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)1, 0SOUTH PEACHAM to MC INDOE FALLSwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-07-10Flash Flood$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)1, 0NORTH DANVILLE to ST JOHNSBURY CENTERwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2023-05-18Frost/Freeze$0 property; $150,000 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VTZ007 (CALEDONIA), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2020-06-18Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VTZ007 (CALEDONIA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2015-02-01Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VTZ007 (CALEDONIA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2012-07-04Thunderstorm Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$75,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)0, 0NOYESVILLEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2011-08-28Flood$4,000,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0EAST BURKE to EAST RYEGATEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2007-05-11Lightning$150,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)0, 0ST JOHNSBURY CENTERB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2007-04-16High Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust$200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VTZ007 (CALEDONIA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2007-02-14Heavy Snow$200,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VTZ007 (CALEDONIA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1998-01-06Ice Storm$80,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VTZ007 (CALEDONIA), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (711 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

County-level: Caledonia County.

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave4.84event-days per yearabout 4.84 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)922005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought0event-days per yearnone modeledStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00114annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.114%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.16events per yearabout 1.16 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)44.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0.79event-days per yearabout 0.79 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)152005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0448events per yearabout 1 in 22 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)121851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.439event-days per yearabout 0.439 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)301946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.75event-days per yearabout 1.75 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 22 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (73.3%)491996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide1.1events per year (modeled)about 1.1 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning20.8days per year with a strikeabout 20.8 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.691events per yearabout 0.69 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)271986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.0498events per yearabout 1 in 20 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000152annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00152%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather21.1event-days per yearabout 21.1 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 30 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (100%)4002005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202542301.4
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025111303.7
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202524300.8
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche5 of 1016.919.520.9Very Low 5, Not Applicable 5
Cold Wave10 of 1059.068.179.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 9
Drought0 of 10No Rating 10
Earthquake10 of 1031.940.962.7Relatively Low 5, Very Low 5
Hail10 of 1026.630.235.8Very Low 10
Heat Wave10 of 1012.117.124.5Relatively Low 5, Very Low 5
Hurricane10 of 1066.273.679.4Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 9
Ice Storm10 of 1044.766.477.6Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 8
Inland Flooding10 of 1026.564.882.7Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 1
Landslide10 of 1088.091.796.1Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 8
Lightning10 of 1059.270.884.5Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 9
Strong Wind10 of 1048.659.672.5Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 1
Tornado10 of 1012.417.325.3Very Low 10
Wildfire10 of 1057.761.868.6Very Low 10
Winter Weather10 of 1074.782.090.8Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 1

Caledonia County's 10 census tracts; NRI rates census tracts, not towns.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
St. Johnsbury townTownApproved, expires 2031-06-29FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5$3,707,464.4939 total; not yet covered

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

County-level: Caledonia County (National Risk Index exposure and expected annual loss; since-plan counts use St. Johnsbury town's approval date).

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Vermont Flood Ready Atlas and Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) river corridors for town flood and erosion locations.
  • The Emergency Relief and Assistance Fund (ERAF) Flood Hazard Summary gives E911 building counts in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) per town.
  • Vermont Dam Inventory for dams in and upstream of the town.
  • Vermont Emergency Management (VEM) hazard mitigation planning resources and the 2023 Vermont State Hazard Mitigation Plan. https://vem.vermont.gov/hm-planning-resources

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan (Caledonia County, county-level)

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-06-30county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$0n/aunder 1$0n/a$131building exposure is 0 in NRI
Cold Wave$8,234,739,037$54,298,91930,211$141$17,074$1,042,879under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$14,064,915,923n/a30,233$190,430n/a$33,4270.00135%
Hail$8,234,739,037$54,298,91930,211$3,837$2,648$14,146under 0.0001%
Heat Wave$8,234,739,037$54,298,91930,211under $1$37,686$88,006under 0.0001%
Hurricane$8,233,206,386$54,298,20030,211$661,156$62,618$16,0800.00803%
Ice Storm$8,185,878,720n/a29,992$82,613n/a$3,3190.00101%
Inland Flooding$8,198,025,862$2,190,0541,095$7,703,585$26,916$99,268n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$677,356,253n/a2,692$8,103n/a$6,8860.0012%
Lightning$8,234,739,037n/a30,211$16,483n/a$206,4610.0002%
Strong Wind$8,234,739,037$54,298,91930,211$110,271$1,280$124,9590.00134%
Tornado$8,234,739,037$54,298,91930,211$21,222$172$53,0150.000258%
Wildfire$5,516,474,590$45,764,83920,168$6,374$5$5330.000116%
Winter Weather$8,234,739,037$54,298,91930,211$75,131$94$30,5560.000912%

Totals since 2026-06-30: Storm Events not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County-level: Caledonia County.

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population30,211
Building value (total, not at risk)$8,234,739,037
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$54,298,919
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$9,027,841
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,719,664
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in Caledonia County, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition36Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total2236237014
of which: Barnet town0010100
of which: Groton town0030302
of which: Town and Village of Hardwick1171705
of which: Lyndon town111711806
of which: Ryegate town0030300
of which: St. Johnsbury town0050501

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
St. Johnsbury town5000310050501

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential112112207
2 to 4 unit residential0060603
other residential0030301
non-residential1161603
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 35 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). St. Johnsbury town, VT: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; Town FIPS 5000562200). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/vt/5000562200/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]