Manchester town, VT: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-08-21. Plan: Town of Manchester Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111075), approved 2025-08-22.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-08-22: no new federal declaration.

NOAA Storm Events records since that date (county-level): 29 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($11,624,078 a year), Cold Wave ($4,990,522) and Hurricane ($780,683).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now (this town): FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Terms used

EAL:: expected annual loss: FEMA's modeled average yearly loss from a hazard.
NRI:: FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025).
NFIP:: National Flood Insurance Program.
RL, SRL:: repetitive loss and severe repetitive loss: flood-insured properties with repeated claims (definitions in B2-c).
FMA, HMGP:: Flood Mitigation Assistance and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, FEMA mitigation grants.
PA:: FEMA Public Assistance: disaster aid to governments and some nonprofits.
Zone-level:: NOAA logged the event for a National Weather Service forecast zone, which may include parts of neighboring counties.
County-coded:: NOAA logged the event to this county.
FIPS:: the federal code for a place; 5000342850 is this town.
D0 to D4:: U.S. Drought Monitor categories, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4).
F/EF, EFU:: Fujita and Enhanced Fujita tornado ratings; EFU is an unrated tornado.
kt, CONUS:: knots (1 kt is about 1.15 mph); the contiguous United States.
CFR:: Code of Federal Regulations.
A4-a, E1-a:: other items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool (sources, and changes since the last plan).
Dollars:: nominal (as reported, labeled with the year), not adjusted for inflation.

Plan clock

Status:: Approved, expires 2030-08-21
Plan:: Town of Manchester Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111075)
Approved:: 2025-08-22
Days to expiry:: 1,421

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-08-22)

New federal declarations:: none
Storm Events records since approval (Bennington County, county-level):: 29 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now (this town):: FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 5
Repeat-flood change:: this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for this town

Source: 1

Jurisdiction	Type	Status	Plan	Approved	Expires	Days to expirynegative = days since expiry
Manchester town	Town	Approved, expires 2030-08-21	Town of Manchester Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111075)	2025-08-22	2030-08-21	1,421

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: whole section.

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
levee failure
flash flood as its own subtype
ice jams
debris flows
erosion (riverine and coastal)
land subsidence and sinkholes
expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EAL	Hazard	NRI risk rating	EAL rating	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year	Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count	Storm Events coverage note
1	Inland Flooding	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$11,577,190	$208	$46,680	$11,624,078	77
2	Cold Wave	Relatively Moderate	Relatively High	$269	$8,270	$4,981,984	$4,990,522	72	Includes 18 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3	Hurricane	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$716,031	$39,952	$24,700	$780,683	1
4	Lightning	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$52,256	n/a	$230,549	$282,805	5
5	Tornado	Very Low	Very Low	$231,910	$372	$49,780	$282,062	3
6	Earthquake	Very Low	Very Low	$202,452	n/a	$30,132	$232,584		Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7	Strong Wind	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$74,268	$847	$100,319	$175,434	242	Includes 46 High Wind and 53 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8	Heat Wave	Very Low	Very Low	under $1	$4,751	$118,993	$123,744	23
9	Hail	Very Low	Very Low	$5,702	$11,520	$103,120	$120,343	32
10	Ice Storm	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$93,562	n/a	$1,268	$94,831	3
11	Winter Weather	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$35,115	$11	$23,841	$58,967	247
12	Landslide	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$9,817	n/a	$7,276	$17,093	1
13	Wildfire	Very Low	Very Low	$7,716	$2	$627	$8,345	1
14	Avalanche	Relatively Low	Very Low	under $1	n/a	$3,774	$3,774	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15	Drought	No Rating	No Expected Annual Losses	n/a	$0	n/a	$0	6

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: whole section.

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

Hazard	Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanche	tract 9710 (Very Low, 62.8); tract 9704.01 (Very Low, 62.8); tract 9708 (Very Low, 62.4)
Earthquake	tract 9712 (Relatively Low, 54.4); tract 9710 (Relatively Low, 51.1); tract 9711 (Relatively Low, 49.3)
Hurricane	tract 9712 (Relatively Low, 78.3); tract 9710 (Relatively Low, 77.1); tract 9708 (Relatively Low, 75.5)
Landslide	tract 9716 (Relatively Moderate, 96.7); tract 9706.01 (Relatively Moderate, 95.7); tract 9714 (Relatively Low, 95.4)
Tornado	tract 9712 (Relatively Low, 43.7); tract 9710 (Relatively Low, 40.2); tract 9708 (Relatively Low, 38.4)
Wildfire	tract 9705 (Relatively Low, 69.4); tract 9714 (Very Low, 68.5); tract 9708 (Very Low, 67.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9710 is Census Tract 9710). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: whole section.

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

Hazard	Scale	Recordscount and years	Observed range	Worst recorded event	Most damaging (when different)	Where in the county	Note
Avalanche	none (count and damage only)	0					Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill	wind chill	54 records, 2000 to 2026 (54 zone-level)	1 day to 4 days (median 2 days); 47 with a recorded value	4 consecutive days, 2026-01-29 to 2026-02-01, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)	crop damage	18 records, 2002 to 2023 (18 zone-level)		No crop damage reported in 18 records.		Countywide (zone-level records).	Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Drought	U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)	6 records, 1999 to 2025 (6 zone-level)	30 days to 43 days (median 35 days); 3 with a recorded value	43 days (about 1.4 months), 2025-09-23 to 2025-11-04, a run of 3 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
Earthquake	Modified Mercalli (local data)	0					Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	hail size (inches)	55 records, 1960 to 2024	0.75 in to 3.25 in (median 1 in); 55 with a recorded value	3.25 in hail, 2011-06-01	Hail, 1998-05-31, $20,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)	Event records naming places in the county: Bennington town (12 records), Shaftsbury town (6 records), Sunderland town (5 records), Arlington town (3 records), Dorset town (3 records), Manchester town (2 records), Manchester village (2 records), North Bennington village (2 records), Pownal town (2 records), Rupert town (2 records); and 2 more places (see the Excel file).
Excessive Heat, Heat	heat index (in event narratives)	23 records, 1998 to 2025 (23 zone-level)	1 day to 5 days (median 1.5 days); 18 with a recorded value	5 consecutive days, 2018-07-01 to 2018-07-05, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed). Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression	Saffir-Simpson	1 record, 2011 (1 zone-level)		Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2011-08-28, $0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone VTZ013		Countywide (zone-level records).	Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice Storm	Sperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)	3 records, 2007 to 2025 (3 zone-level)		No damage reported in 3 records.		Countywide (zone-level records).	Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood	damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)	77 records, 1996 to 2023 (23 zone-level)		Flash Flood, 1999-09-16, $476,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)		Event records naming places in the county: Bennington town (14 records), Arlington town (8 records), Dorset town (7 records), Rupert town (5 records), North Bennington village (4 records), Pownal town (4 records), Sunderland town (4 records), Manchester town (3 records), Manchester village (2 records), Readsboro town (1 record); and 2 more places (see the Excel file). Zone-level records (23) apply countywide.	Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flow	none (count and damage only)	1 record, 2019		No damage reported in 1 record.		Event records naming places in the county: Arlington town (1 record).	Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightning	annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)	5 records, 2000 to 2021		Lightning, 2007-07-27, $750,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)		Event records naming places in the county: Bennington town (4 records), North Bennington village (1 record), Woodford town (1 record).	Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)	wind speed (kt and mph)	99 records, 1996 to 2026 (99 zone-level)	30 kt (35 mph) to 66 kt (76 mph) (median 46 kt (53 mph)); 86 with a recorded value	66 kt (76 mph), measurement type not recorded, High Wind, 1999-11-02; NWS zone VTZ013	High Wind, 1999-09-16, $150,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1999 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Wind	wind speed (kt and mph)	188 records, 1955 to 2026	44 kt (51 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 121 with a recorded value	87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2017-07-01	Thunderstorm Wind, 1995-07-15, $100,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)	Event records naming places in the county: Bennington town (38 records), Manchester town (23 records), Manchester village (17 records), Arlington town (16 records), Shaftsbury town (14 records), Dorset town (12 records), Pownal town (11 records), Rupert town (8 records), Stamford town (5 records), North Bennington village (4 records); and 5 more places (see the Excel file).
Tornado	Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)	6 records, 1955 to 2003	F/EF1 to F/EF2 (median between F/EF1 and F/EF2); 6 with a recorded value	F2 tornado, 1969-05-29, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1969 dollars), 1 direct injury	Tornado, 1998-05-31, $630,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)	Event records naming places in the county: Bennington town (2 records), North Bennington village (2 records), Pownal town (1 record), Shaftsbury town (1 record).	Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfire	acres burned (local data)	1 record, 2002 (1 zone-level)		No damage reported in 1 record.		Countywide (zone-level records).	Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet	none in data (snowfall: local data)	247 records, 1996 to 2026 (247 zone-level)		Winter Storm, 1997-03-31, $750,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars); NWS zone VTZ013		Countywide (zone-level records).	Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Where a hazard names more than 10 jurisdictions, the table lists the 10 with the most records; every one is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-c Extent".

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: declarations, statewide block and Storm Events history.

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard	County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars	Flags	Notes
2024-08-08	2024-08-08	EM-3609-VT	Emergency	Tropical Depression Debby	Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded	within last 5 years
2023-07-14	2023-07-07	DR-4720-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide	$660,796.58	within last 5 years
2023-07-10	2023-07-09	EM-3595-VT	Emergency	Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded	within last 5 years	same incident as DR-4720
2021-09-29	2021-07-29	DR-4621-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storm and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$1,397,161.44
2021-08-22	2021-08-22	EM-3567-VT	Emergency	Tropical Storm Henri	Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded
2020-04-08	2020-01-20	DR-4532-VT	Major disaster	COVID-19 Pandemic	Non-natural, not counted	$990,011.49
2020-03-13	2020-01-20	EM-3437-VT	Emergency	COVID-19	Non-natural, not counted	no Public Assistance recorded		same incident as DR-4532
2019-06-14	2019-04-15	DR-4445-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$130,265.82
2017-08-16	2017-06-29	DR-4330-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$70,865.22
2011-09-01	2011-08-27	DR-4022-VT	Major disaster	Tropical Storm Irene	Hurricane	$6,103,777.98
2011-08-29	2011-08-26	EM-3338-VT	Emergency	Hurricane Irene	Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded		same incident as DR-4022
2009-01-14	2008-12-11	DR-1816-VT	Major disaster	Severe Winter Storm	Ice Storm	$18,328.74
2007-05-04	2007-04-15	DR-1698-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$170,787.04
2003-09-12	2003-07-21	DR-1488-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$83,192.91
2001-04-10	2001-03-05	EM-3167-VT	Emergency	Snow	Winter Weather	$77,457.97
2001-01-18	2000-12-16	DR-1358-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$224,987.54
2000-07-27	2000-07-14	DR-1336-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$113,222.81
1999-11-10	1999-09-16	DR-1307-VT	Major disaster	Tropical Storm Floyd	Hurricane; Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded
1996-02-13	1996-01-19	DR-1101-VT	Major disaster	Ice Jams and Flooding	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Winter Weather	no Public Assistance recorded
1976-08-05	1976-08-05	DR-518-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms, High Winds & Flooding	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind	no Public Assistance recorded
1973-07-06	1973-07-06	DR-397-VT	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Flooding, & Landslides	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide	no Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: the whole county's applicants, including state agencies FEMA files there (federal share obligated, nominal dollars); statewide rows are on the state page; this town's own matched Public Assistance is in B1-f.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard
1964-03-17	1964-03-17	DR-164-VT	Major disaster	Flooding	Inland Flooding
1963-11-27	1963-11-27	DR-160-VT	Major disaster	Drought & Impending Freeze	Drought

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

Hazard	Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)	Since plan approvalrecords	In the 12 months before plan approvalrecords	Last 5 yearsrecords	Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters	Period	Statement
Avalanche	0	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave	72	6	2	16	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	Includes 18 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought	6	3	2	5	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake	0	0	0	0	0		Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	55	0	0	2	0	1955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave	23	0	2	7	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane	1	0	0	0	4	1996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm	3	0	1	1	1	1996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding	77	0	0	9	12	1996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide	1	0	0	0	2	1996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning	5	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind	287	11	14	60	1	1955 to 2026-06-30	Includes 46 High Wind and 53 Strong Wind records.
Tornado	6	0	0	0	0	1950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire	1	0	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather	247	9	10	50	2	1996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

Date	Event type	Magnitude or extent	Damagenominal dollars	Deaths, injuriesdirect only	Location	Flags	Why listed
2026-01-29	Extreme Cold/Wind Chill		damage not reported	0, 0	NWS zone VTZ013 (BENNINGTON), zone-level	new since last plan; within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2021-01-08	Cold/Wind Chill		damage not reported	1, 0	NWS zone VTZ013 (BENNINGTON), zone-level		deaths or injuries recorded
2018-07-01	Excessive Heat		damage not reported	0, 0	NWS zone VTZ013 (BENNINGTON), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2017-07-01	Thunderstorm Wind	87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust	damage not reported	0, 0	SANDGATE		B1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2011-08-28	Tropical Storm		$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2011 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone VTZ013 (BENNINGTON), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2011-06-01	Hail	3.25 in	property not reported; $0 crops (2011 dollars)	0, 0	SHAFTSBURY		B1-c worst recorded: Hail
2007-07-27	Lightning		$750,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars)	0, 0	BENNINGTON		B1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2006-02-17	High Wind	60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust	damage not reported	0, 1	NWS zone VTZ013 (BENNINGTON), zone-level		deaths or injuries recorded
2000-07-16	Lightning		damage not reported	0, 1	BENNINGTON		deaths or injuries recorded
1999-11-02	High Wind	66 kt (76 mph), measurement type not recorded	damage not reported	0, 0	NWS zone VTZ013 (BENNINGTON), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1999-09-16	Flash Flood		$476,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)	0, 0	COUNTYWIDE		B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1969-05-29	Tornado	F2, 0.5 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide	$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1969 dollars)	0, 1	location not recorded		B1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (784 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: whole section.

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

Hazard	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row	Unit	In plain terms	Descriptor	Descriptor basis	NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)	NRI period	Location	Note
Avalanche	0.01	events per year	about 1 in 100 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	0	1994 to 2023 (30 years)	see B1-f	0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave	4.1	event-days per year	about 4.1 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 17 of 30 years)	event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)	78	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Drought	0	event-days per year	none modeled	Likely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)	event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)	0	2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)	countywide	NRI models no drought event-days here (2000 to 2025, 25.25 years; D3 and D4 only); Storm Events has a record in 3 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which counts D2 drought that NRI leaves out.
Earthquake	0.000905	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0905%			not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail	2.6	events per year	about 2.6 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	98.9 (modeled)	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Heat Wave	1.53	event-days per year	about 1.53 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 11 of 30 years)	event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)	27	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Hurricane	0.0634	events per year	about 1 in 16 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	24	1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)	see B1-f	NRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm	0.605	event-days per year	about 0.605 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)	event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)	41	1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)	countywide
Inland Flooding	1.61	event-days per year	about 1.61 days per year	Likely (from Storm Events: 19 of 30 years)	event-days in 19 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (63.3%)	45	1996 to 2023 (28 years)	see B1-f
Landslide	1.28	events per year (modeled)	about 1.28 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Lightning	24.2	days per year with a strike	about 24.2 days per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)	countywide
Strong Wind	1.36	events per year	about 1.36 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	52	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Tornado	0.124	events per year	about 1 in 8 years	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)	see B1-f
Wildfire	0.000022	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0022%	Possible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)	Storm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f	Descriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather	24.4	event-days per year	about 24.4 days per year	Highly likely (from Storm Events: 29 of 30 years)	event-days in 29 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (96.7%)	464	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

Unit	Descriptor	Definition
events per year	Highly likely	1 or more per year
events per year	Likely	about once in 1 to 10 years
events per year	Possible	about once in 10 to 100 years
events per year	Unlikely	less than once in 100 years
annual probability	Likely	10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probability	Possible	1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probability	Unlikely	under 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)	Highly likely	event-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)	Likely	event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)	Possible	event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-days	Highly likely	cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

Hazard	Band	Years	Eventscounty-coded records	Years in period	Events per yearevents / years
Hail	1.00-1.99 in	1996 to 2025	24	30	0.8
Hail	2.00 in+	1996 to 2025	1	30	0.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	50-64 kt	1996 to 2025	110	30	3.67
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	65 kt+	1996 to 2025	3	30	0.1
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	unmeasured or below 50 kt	1996 to 2025	26	30	0.867
Tornado	EF0-1	1996 to 2025	2	30	0.0667
Tornado	EF2-3	1996 to 2025	1	30	0.0333
Tornado	EF4-5	1996 to 2025	0	30	0
Tornado	unrated (EFU)	1996 to 2025	0	30	0

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

Hazard	Tractsrated of all	NRI risk score, 0 to 100			Tracts by rating
Hazard	Tractsrated of all	Min	Median	Max	Tracts by rating
Avalanche	8 of 12	58.1	60.5	62.8	Very Low 8, Not Applicable 4
Cold Wave	12 of 12	82.7	93.1	97.6	Very High 4, Relatively High 8
Drought	0 of 12				No Rating 12
Earthquake	12 of 12	25.4	38.5	54.4	Relatively Low 5, Very Low 7
Hail	12 of 12	40.5	55.8	65.5	Relatively Low 12
Heat Wave	12 of 12	5.9	13.8	24.1	Relatively Low 4, Very Low 8
Hurricane	12 of 12	61.8	72.4	78.3	Relatively Low 12
Ice Storm	12 of 12	38.0	59.1	78.9	Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 8
Inland Flooding	12 of 12	37.8	65.1	96.0	Very High 1, Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 2
Landslide	12 of 12	43.7	90.4	96.7	Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 4
Lightning	12 of 12	48.7	71.9	87.6	Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind	12 of 12	28.6	46.3	60.9	Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 10
Tornado	12 of 12	21.0	31.3	43.7	Relatively Low 10, Very Low 2
Wildfire	12 of 12	46.9	61.9	69.4	Relatively Low 1, Very Low 11
Winter Weather	12 of 12	49.7	67.4	77.0	Relatively Moderate 12

Bennington County's 12 census tracts; NRI rates census tracts, not towns.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

Jurisdiction	Type	Plan status	Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition	Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars	Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Manchester town	Town	Approved, expires 2030-08-21	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5	$179,158.14	28 total; 1 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: NRI exposure and expected annual loss; since-plan figures use the town's own approval date.

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
Future assets
Vermont Flood Ready Atlas and Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) river corridors for town flood and erosion locations.
The Emergency Relief and Assistance Fund (ERAF) Flood Hazard Summary gives E911 building counts in the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) per town.
Vermont Dam Inventory for dams in and upstream of the town.
Vermont Emergency Management (VEM) hazard mitigation planning resources and the 2023 Vermont State Hazard Mitigation Plan. https://vem.vermont.gov/hm-planning-resources

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan (Bennington County, county-level)

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

Hazard	Building exposuremodeled dollars	Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars	Population exposedpeople	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted	Note
Avalanche	$368,605	n/a	1	under $1	n/a	$3,774	under 0.0001%
Cold Wave	$11,309,918,513	$22,597,593	37,345	$269	$8,270	$4,981,984	under 0.0001%
Drought	n/a	$0	n/a	n/a	$0	n/a		agriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake	$19,357,209,942	n/a	37,347	$202,452	n/a	$30,132	0.00105%
Hail	$11,309,918,513	$22,597,593	37,345	$5,702	$11,520	$103,120	under 0.0001%
Heat Wave	$11,309,918,513	$22,597,593	37,345	under $1	$4,751	$118,993	under 0.0001%
Hurricane	$11,309,147,090	$22,597,593	37,341	$716,031	$39,952	$24,700	0.00633%
Ice Storm	$11,262,187,256	n/a	37,199	$93,562	n/a	$1,268	0.000831%
Inland Flooding	$11,286,428,211	$3,793,159	2,363	$11,577,190	$208	$46,680	n/a (see note)	NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide	$706,168,334	n/a	2,207	$9,817	n/a	$7,276	0.00139%
Lightning	$11,309,918,513	n/a	37,345	$52,256	n/a	$230,549	0.000462%
Strong Wind	$11,309,918,513	$22,597,593	37,345	$74,268	$847	$100,319	0.000657%
Tornado	$11,309,918,513	$22,597,593	37,345	$231,910	$372	$49,780	0.00205%
Wildfire	$5,557,386,361	$10,711,823	17,774	$7,716	$2	$627	0.000139%
Winter Weather	$11,309,918,513	$22,597,593	37,345	$35,115	$11	$23,841	0.00031%

Totals since 2025-08-22 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 4 county-coded records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 25 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

Inherited from Bennington County, county-level (county FIPS 50003); scope: whole section.

County context

Source: 5

Measure	Value
Population	37,345
Building value (total, not at risk)	$11,309,918,513
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)	$22,597,593
NRI risk rating (all hazards)	Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards	$13,072,221
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)	$5,723,044
Social vulnerability rating	Relatively Low
Community resilience rating	Relatively High
NRI version	December 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in Bennington County, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

Definition	Properties	Severe repetitive loss	Properties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0	Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	6	Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

Scope	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Currently insuredproperties
County total	6	6	2
of which: Bennington town	1	1	0
of which: Manchester town	5	5	2

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

Jurisdiction	NFIP community ID	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
Manchester town	500015	0	0	5	0	5	0	2

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy group	RL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Currently insuredproperties
single-family residential	4	4	1
2 to 4 unit residential	0	0	0
other residential	0	0	0
non-residential	2	2	1
not reported	0	0	0

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 6 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Manchester town, VT: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; Town FIPS 5000342850). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/vt/5000342850/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.