Hazard Plain Automated baseline

New Kent County, VA

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
51127
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-08-07. Plan: PDC 15 & 19 Richmond-Crater Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108426), approved 2022-08-08.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-08-08: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident) and 40 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($3,379,288 a year), Drought ($1,798,534) and Hurricane ($551,056).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-08-07
Plan:
PDC 15 & 19 Richmond-Crater Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108426)
Approved:
2022-08-08
Days to expiry:
311
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-08-08)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): EM-3631-VA (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
40 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 2, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 3
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
New Kent CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-08-07PDC 15 & 19 Richmond-Crater Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108426)2022-08-082027-08-07311FEMA tracker shows a plan in progressthis jurisdiction approved 2022-10-11

Plan 108426 covers 22 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$3,372,358$312$6,617$3,379,28824
2DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Highn/a$1,798,534n/a$1,798,5341
3HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$499,206$34,860$16,990$551,0562
4TornadoVery LowRelatively Low$206,514$150$248,671$455,3345
5Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$53,914$307$234,705$288,925103Includes 3 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
6Coastal FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$212,540n/a$5,486$218,0253
7EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$164,791n/a$39,290$204,081Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
8Heat WaveVery LowRelatively Low$17$6$201,074$201,0974
9LightningVery LowVery Low$4,844n/a$73,889$78,7330No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
10Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$45,051n/a$428$45,4793
11HailVery LowVery Low$12,339$10,851$17,178$40,36815
12Winter WeatherVery LowRelatively Low$1,064$2$25,732$26,79872
13Cold WaveVery LowVery Low$1,993$511$18,364$20,8684Includes 3 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
14WildfireVery LowVery Low$13,712$1$1,688$15,4010No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15LandslideVery LowVery Low$1,035n/a$97$1,1320No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, wildfire, landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 7001 (Relatively Low, 70.1); tract 7002 (Relatively Low, 60.9); tract 7003.01 (Relatively Low, 52.2)
Hurricanetract 7001 (Relatively Moderate, 82.1); tract 7002 (Relatively Moderate, 80.9); tract 7003.01 (Relatively Low, 78.1)
Landslidetract 7002 (Relatively Low, 87.2); tract 7001 (Relatively Low, 86.2); tract 7003.02 (Relatively Low, 86.0)
Tornadotract 7001 (Relatively Moderate, 67.4); tract 7002 (Relatively Moderate, 64.1); tract 7003.01 (Relatively Moderate, 55.0)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 7003.01 (Relatively Low, 78.3); tract 7001 (Relatively Low, 76.6); tract 7003.02 (Relatively Low, 75.2)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 7001 is Census Tract 7001). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)3 records, 2015 to 2025 (3 zone-level)No damage reported in 3 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 1996 (1 zone-level)3 days; 1 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 1996-02-05 to 1996-02-07, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage3 records, 2003 to 2026 (3 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2026-04-21, $500,000 crop damage (2026 dollars); NWS zone VAZ083Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)1 record, 1997 (1 zone-level)30 days; 1 with a recorded value30 days (1 month), 1997-09-01 to 1997-09-30, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)17 records, 1981 to 20250.75 in to 1.75 in (median 1 in); 17 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2000-05-19; same size also recorded on 1996-12-05, 1999-04-23No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 2011 to 2025 (4 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 3 days); 4 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2012-07-05 to 2012-07-08, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson2 records, 2003 to 2011 (2 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2003-09-18 to 2003-09-19, damage not reported, 1 direct death (reported for the zone); NWS zone VAZ083Most damaging recorded: Tropical Storm, 2011-08-27, $25,000 property; $122,000 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)3 records, 1998 to 2021 (3 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2021-02-13, $50,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars); NWS zone VAZ083Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)24 records, 1996 to 2025Flash Flood, 1999-09-16, $650,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)4 records, 1999 to 2024 (4 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 50 kt (58 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 3 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2018-10-11; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2018-03-02; NWS zone VAZ083High Wind, 2018-03-02, $25,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2018 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)112 records, 1983 to 202650 kt (58 mph); 80 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2026-06-14; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2003-07-22, 2004-06-30, 2006-01-14, 2006-04-03, 2006-05-11, 2006-08-04, 2007-05-28, 2007-07-19, 2007-08-05, 2007-08-10, 2008-05-09, 2008-06-16, 2008-07-04, 2008-08-15, 2009-05-09, 2010-05-14, 2010-08-04, 2010-08-12, 2011-03-06, 2011-03-10, 2011-03-21, 2011-05-18, 2011-07-03, 2012-06-25, 2012-06-29, 2012-06-30, 2012-07-18, 2013-08-10, 2014-05-28, 2014-06-19, 2015-06-20, 2016-02-24, 2016-06-16, 2017-05-05, 2017-08-18, 2017-10-24, 2018-04-16, 2019-04-15, 2019-08-07, 2019-08-22, 2020-04-13, 2020-06-06, 2021-03-31, 2021-09-08, 2022-04-26, 2022-06-12, 2022-07-26, 2023-06-26, 2023-09-07, 2024-08-19, 2025-02-16, 2025-05-05, 2025-06-19, 2025-07-12, 2025-07-14, 2025-07-19, 2026-03-16, 2026-06-14Thunderstorm Wind, 2016-02-24, $107,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)6 records, 1993 to 2018F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF0); 6 with a recorded valueEF1 tornado, 2011-10-13, 9.24 mi within this county, 200 yd wide, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)72 records, 1996 to 2025 (72 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2021-02-18, $30,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars); NWS zone VAZ083Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow, lightning and tsunami.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 22 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-232026-01-22EM-3631-VAEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-05-102021-02-11DR-4602-VAMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2020-04-022020-01-20DR-4512-VAMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$71,597.99
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3448-VAEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4512
2018-12-182018-10-09DR-4411-VAMajor disasterTropical Storm MichaelHurricane$59,227.88
2018-09-112018-09-13EM-3403-VAEmergencyHurricane FlorenceHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2012-11-262012-10-26DR-4092-VAMajor disasterHurricane SandyHurricane$13,872.33
2012-10-292012-10-26EM-3359-VAEmergencyHurricane SandyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4092
2012-07-272012-06-29DR-4072-VAMajor disasterSevere Storms and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind$32,285.75
2011-09-032011-08-26DR-4024-VAMajor disasterHurricane IreneHurricane$839,632.21
2011-08-262011-08-26EM-3329-VAEmergencyHurricane IreneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4024
2005-09-122005-08-29EM-3240-VAEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-032004-08-30DR-1544-VAMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes Associated W Td GastonInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2003-09-182003-09-18DR-1491-VAMajor disasterHurricane IsabelHurricane$141,786.79
2000-02-282000-01-25DR-1318-VAMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1999-09-181999-09-13DR-1293-VAMajor disasterHurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1996-09-061996-09-05DR-1135-VAMajor disasterHurricane Fran and Associated Severe Storm CondHurricanePA not declared for this county
1996-01-131996-01-06DR-1086-VAMajor disasterBlizzard of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1994-03-101994-02-08DR-1014-VAMajor disasterSevere Ice Storms, FloodingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-251993-03-13EM-3112-VAEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1977-07-231977-07-23EM-3046-VAEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1977-01-261977-01-26DR-525-VAMajor disasterIce ConditionsCold WavePA not declared for this county

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1963-03-211963-03-21DR-149-VAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1962-03-091962-03-09DR-123-VAMajor disasterSevere Storms, High Tides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Coastal Flooding
1957-02-011957-02-01DR-68-VAMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding3202001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave4101101996 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought1000101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail17202001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4202001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane2000701996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm3000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding24808201996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind11623527101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 3 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado6000101950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather72235511996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-06-14Thunderstorm Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$1,000 property; $0 crops (2026 dollars)0, 0BARHAMSVILLEnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2021-02-18Winter Storm$30,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2021-02-13Ice Storm$50,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2018-10-11High Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$3,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2018 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2012-07-05Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2011-10-13TornadoEF1, 9.24 mi within this county, 200 yd wide$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)0, 0QUINTON ARPT to TUNSTALLB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2003-09-18Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')damage not reported1, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2000-05-19Hail1.75 in$5,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars)0, 0NEW KENTB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1999-09-16Flash Flood$650,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1997-09-01Droughtproperty not reported; $1,120,000 crops (zone total, 1997 dollars)0, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
1996-02-05Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone VAZ083 (NEW KENT), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1984-05-08Thunderstorm Windspeed not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (252 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding3.69events per year at a location (modeled)about 3.7 per year at a given location in the countyHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from NRI: the rate at a location is 1 or more a year, so the county rate is at least that.
Cold Wave0.581event-days per yearabout 0.581 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)112005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought3.73event-days per yearabout 3.73 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)1262000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00186annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.186%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.26events per yearabout 2.26 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)85.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave5.44event-days per yearabout 5.44 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)82.32005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.153events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)461851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.15event-days per yearabout 1.15 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)781946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.571event-days per yearabout 0.571 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)161996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.186events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning43.3days per year with a strikeabout 43.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.61events per yearabout 1.61 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)611986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.137events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.00016annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.016%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather4.8event-days per yearabout 4.8 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 23 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (76.7%)91.32005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202510300.333
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202575302.5
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202519300.633
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding4 of 482.486.495.4Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2
Cold Wave4 of 418.720.522.1Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Drought4 of 495.298.399.2Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 1
Earthquake4 of 447.656.570.1Relatively Low 4
Hail4 of 446.953.462.2Relatively Low 4
Heat Wave4 of 436.455.068.7Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2
Hurricane4 of 475.779.582.1Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2
Ice Storm4 of 457.369.977.1Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 2
Inland Flooding4 of 426.563.175.7Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Landslide4 of 485.386.187.2Relatively Low 4
Lightning4 of 445.863.676.5Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind4 of 470.483.191.0Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 2
Tornado4 of 448.459.567.4Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1
Tsunami0 of 4Insufficient Data 4
Wildfire4 of 473.875.978.3Relatively Low 4
Winter Weather4 of 456.770.079.7Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
New Kent CountyCountyApproved, expires 2027-08-07FMA RL 2, SRL 0; any 3$1,158,402.950 total; 0 since its planIncludes $71,597.99 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4512-VA).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-08-08county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$164,276,950n/a663$212,540n/a$5,4860.129%$0
Cold Wave$4,600,620,385$6,603,24522,940$1,993$511$18,364under 0.0001%$500,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level Frost/Freeze record ($500,000): outside NRI's Cold Wave definition.
Droughtn/a$4,565,523n/an/a$1,798,534n/a39.4% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$7,387,600,585n/a22,945$164,791n/a$39,2900.00223%
Hail$4,600,620,385$6,603,24522,940$12,339$10,851$17,1780.000268%$0
Heat Wave$4,600,620,385$6,603,24522,940$17$6$201,074under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$4,600,074,078$6,603,24522,938$499,206$34,860$16,9900.0109%
Ice Storm$4,600,620,385n/a22,940$45,051n/a$4280.000979%
Inland Flooding$4,594,843,150$55,640350$3,372,358$312$6,617n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$101,713,642n/a543$1,035n/a$970.00102%
Lightning$4,600,620,385n/a22,940$4,844n/a$73,8890.000105%
Strong Wind$4,600,620,385$6,603,24522,940$53,914$307$234,7050.00117%$42,750$1,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level Strong Wind record ($1,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$4,600,620,385$6,603,24522,940$206,514$150$248,6710.00449%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$1,078,304,245$1,116,5626,258$13,712$1$1,6880.00127%
Winter Weather$4,600,620,385$6,603,24522,940$1,064$2$25,732under 0.0001%$2,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2022-08-08 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 32 county-coded records, 32 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $42,750; 8 zone-level records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $503,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population22,940
Building value (total, not at risk)$4,600,620,385
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$6,603,245
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$6,434,912
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$890,208
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition3Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total2030300
of which: New Kent County (unincorporated area)2030300
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0040400

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
New Kent County5103062030300

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential2030300
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1 property is NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). New Kent County, VA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 51127). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/va/51127/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]