Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Uvalde County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48463
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-08-13. Plan: Uvalde County (FEMA plan 107139), approved 2025-08-14.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-08-14: 2 new hazard declarations (1 incident) and 12 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($15,500,517 a year), Drought ($1,194,170) and Heat Wave ($1,173,408).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-08-13
Plan:
Uvalde County (FEMA plan 107139)
Approved:
2025-08-14
Days to expiry:
1,413

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-08-14)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (1 incident): EM-3649-TX (Flooding), DR-4935-TX (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding)
Storm Events records since approval:
12 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 3, SRL 2 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 9
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Uvalde CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-08-13Uvalde County (FEMA plan 107139)2025-08-142030-08-131,413
Sabinal cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-13Uvalde County (FEMA plan 107139)2025-08-142030-08-131,413
Uvalde cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-13Uvalde County (FEMA plan 107139)2025-08-142030-08-131,413
Utopia Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2030-05-13Bandera County (FEMA plan 110210)2025-05-142030-05-131,321this jurisdiction approved 2026-03-13
Middle Rio Grande Development Council (MRGDC)OtherApproved, expires 2031-09-01Dimmit County (FEMA plan 111114)2026-09-022031-09-011,797

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$7,288,525$1,611,808$6,600,184$15,500,517165
2DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$1,194,170n/a$1,194,170104
3Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$36$215$1,173,157$1,173,4086
4TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$391,132$1,647$515,738$908,51810
5HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$220,252$117,888$53,821$391,961122
6Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$2,760$45,929$272,410$321,0993
7LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$9,943n/a$268,548$278,4910No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
8Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$114,682$11,226$64,334$190,24256Includes 1 High Wind record (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
9HurricaneRelatively LowRelatively Low$125,905$58,166$4,604$188,6750Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
10WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$151,100$379$7,881$159,3611
11Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$20,531$983$36,287$57,80217
12Ice StormVery LowVery Low$15,371n/a$1,085$16,4560Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
13EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$9,805n/a$2,919$12,724Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$263n/a$35$2980No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9502.01 (Very Low, 13.4); tract 9502.02 (Very Low, 13.2); tract 9503 (Very Low, 12.3)
Hurricanetract 9502.01 (Relatively Low, 74.8); tract 9501 (Relatively Low, 71.9); tract 9502.02 (Relatively Low, 71.6)
Landslidetract 9502.01 (Relatively Low, 87.5); tract 9501 (Relatively Low, 84.5); tract 9502.02 (Very Low, 26.3)
Tornadotract 9501 (Relatively High, 81.1); tract 9503 (Relatively High, 76.8); tract 9502.01 (Relatively High, 75.2)
Wildfiretract 9501 (Relatively Moderate, 95.1); tract 9502.01 (Relatively Moderate, 94.1); tract 9502.02 (Relatively Moderate, 90.3)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9502.01 is Census Tract 9502.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill3 records, 2021 to 2024 (3 zone-level)2 days; 3 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2024-01-16 to 2024-01-17, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)104 records, 1996 to 2025 (104 zone-level)1 day to 334 days (median 163 days); 18 with a recorded value334 days (11 months), 2012-11-01 to 2013-09-30, a run of 11 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)170 records, 1964 to 20260.75 in to 4.5 in (median 1.5 in); 170 with a recorded value4.5 in hail, 2002-03-19Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Uvalde city (31 records), Sabinal city (16 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)6 records, 1999 to 2024 (6 zone-level)1 day to 12 days (median 2.5 days); 6 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 2023-08-06 to 2023-08-17, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)0
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)165 records, 1996 to 2025 (19 zone-level)Flood, 1996-10-28, $5,000,000 property; $10,000,000 crops (1996 dollars); NWS zone TXZ203Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Uvalde city (16 records), Sabinal city (15 records). Zone-level records (19) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)1 record, 2013 (1 zone-level)51 kt (59 mph); 1 with a recorded value51 kt (59 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2013-02-25; NWS zone TXZ203Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)85 records, 1964 to 202643 kt (49 mph) to 75 kt (86 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 48 with a recorded value75 kt (86 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2006-03-19Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Uvalde city (17 records), Sabinal city (12 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)14 records, 1959 to 2013F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 14 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1996-09-15, 4 mi within this county, 700 yd wide, $20,000 property; $0 crops (1996 dollars), 1 direct injuryTornado, 2006-03-19, $1,500,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Uvalde city (3 records), Sabinal city (2 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2022 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)17 records, 1997 to 2026 (17 zone-level)No damage reported in 17 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 14 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-09-012026-07-12DR-4935-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Floodingnot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-07-182026-07-12EM-3649-TXEmergencyFloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornadonot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4935
2025-07-062025-07-02DR-4879-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$508,574.04in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2019-02-252018-09-10DR-4416-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$325,556.54
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$807,420.62
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2007-06-292007-06-16DR-1709-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$480,645.66
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$17,485.60
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2002-07-042002-06-29DR-1425-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,083,777.01
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1997-07-071997-06-21DR-1179-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-09-101993-08-30EM-3113-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardDrought (primary); also designated: Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1990-01-091989-12-21DR-850-TXMajor disasterSevere FreezeCold WavePA not declared for this county

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $3,562.50

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-1479-TX2003-07-17Hurricane ClaudetteUvalde Consolidated Independent School District$3,562.50

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave3002101996 to 2026-06-30
Drought1040933101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1705414001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave6013001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Inland Flooding1651911811996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind865314311955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind record.
Tornado14000311950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1001401996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather17116001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-01-16Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2023-08-06Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2018-10-09Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)1, 0SABINALdeaths or injuries recorded
2013-02-25High Wind51 kt (59 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2013 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2012-11-01Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2006-03-19TornadoF2, 2 mi within this county, 50 yd wide$1,500,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 0UVALDEB1-c most damaging: Tornado
2006-03-19Thunderstorm Wind75 kt (86 mph) estimated gust$2,000,000 property; crops not reported (2006 dollars)0, 0UVALDEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2002-07-02Flooddamage not reported1, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2002-03-19Hail4.5 in$250,000 property; $0 crops (2002 dollars)0, 0UVALDEB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1999-08-01Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 1999 dollars)2, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1996-10-28Flood$5,000,000 property; $10,000,000 crops (zone total, 1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ203 (UVALDE), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1996-09-15TornadoF2, 4 mi within this county, 700 yd wide$20,000 property; $0 crops (1996 dollars)0, 1UTOPIAB1-c worst recorded: Tornado

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (566 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.526event-days per yearabout 0.526 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)102005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought145event-days per yearabout 145 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)4,6062000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000185annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0185%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail1.77events per yearabout 1.77 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)67.1 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave7.05event-days per yearabout 7.05 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)1212005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0281events per yearabout 1 in 36 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)121851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.0369event-days per yearabout 0.0369 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)21946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywideNo Storm Events ice storm record, 1996 to 2025
Inland Flooding3.57event-days per yearabout 3.57 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 25 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (83.3%)1001996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.357events per year (modeled)about 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning40.8days per year with a strikeabout 40.8 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.42events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)161986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.231events per yearabout 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00107annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.107%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather2event-days per yearabout 2 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)382005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202573302.43
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202519300.633
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202530301
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20255300.167
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202515300.5
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20258300.267
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave6 of 652.059.262.4Relatively Moderate 6
Drought6 of 678.193.399.2Relatively High 3, Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Earthquake6 of 611.512.313.4Very Low 6
Hail6 of 681.387.794.7Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 3
Heat Wave6 of 690.893.595.5Relatively High 6
Hurricane6 of 657.565.274.8Relatively Low 6
Ice Storm6 of 620.330.871.1Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 2, Very Low 3
Inland Flooding6 of 686.094.299.9Very High 3, Relatively High 3
Landslide6 of 69.918.387.5Relatively Low 2, Very Low 4
Lightning6 of 691.094.297.1Very High 2, Relatively High 4
Strong Wind6 of 665.974.984.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 5
Tornado6 of 669.175.281.1Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 2
Wildfire6 of 673.783.695.1Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 3
Winter Weather6 of 682.786.788.4Relatively High 6

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Uvalde CountyCountyApproved, expires 2030-08-13FMA RL 3, SRL 2; any 9$2,948,345.700 total; 0 since its plan
Sabinal cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$159,932.9645 total; 1 since its plan
Uvalde cityCityApproved, expires 2030-08-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$110,638.1067 total; 3 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-08-14county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$7,487,387,930$112,122,70724,512$2,760$45,929$272,410under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$25,720,704n/an/a$1,194,170n/a4.64% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$13,496,508,565n/a24,564$9,805n/a$2,919under 0.0001%
Hail$7,487,387,930$112,122,70724,512$220,252$117,888$53,8210.00294%$0
Heat Wave$7,487,387,930$112,122,70724,512$36$215$1,173,157under 0.0001%
Hurricane$7,486,669,321$110,962,90224,512$125,905$58,166$4,6040.00168%
Ice Storm$7,487,387,930n/a24,512$15,371n/a$1,0850.000205%
Inland Flooding$7,483,818,195$17,555,2961,270$7,288,525$1,611,808$6,600,184n/a (see note)$0no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$77,740,148n/a56$263n/a$350.000338%
Lightning$7,487,387,930n/a24,512$9,943n/a$268,5480.000133%
Strong Wind$7,487,387,930$112,122,70724,512$114,682$11,226$64,3340.00153%$28,500no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Tornado$7,487,387,930$112,122,70724,512$391,132$1,647$515,7380.00522%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$1,546,780,225$42,698,7485,899$151,100$379$7,8810.00977%
Winter Weather$7,487,387,930$112,122,70724,512$20,531$983$36,2870.000274%$0

Totals since 2025-08-14 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 11 county-coded records, 10 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $28,500; 1 zone-level records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population24,512
Building value (total, not at risk)$7,487,387,930
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$112,122,707
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$11,392,719
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$9,001,005
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)3Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition9Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition2

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total3292901
of which: Uvalde County (unincorporated area)3292901
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Uvalde County4806293292901
Sabinal city4810390000000
Uvalde city4806300000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential2181801
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential1111100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 6 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Uvalde County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48463). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48463/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]