Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Polk County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48373
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-12-15. Plan: Polk County (FEMA plan 110192), approved 2024-12-16.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-12-16: no new federal declaration.

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 9 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($7,220,486 a year), Hurricane ($5,311,834) and Tornado ($4,217,315).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 10, SRL 8 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 36.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-12-15
Plan:
Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)
Approved:
2024-12-16
Days to expiry:
1,172

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-12-16)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
9 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 10, SRL 8 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 36
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Polk CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-12-15Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)2024-12-162029-12-151,172
Corrigan townTownApproved, expires 2029-12-15Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)2024-12-162029-12-151,172this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-29
Goodrich cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-15Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)2024-12-162029-12-151,172this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-10
Livingston townTownApproved, expires 2029-12-15Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)2024-12-162029-12-151,172this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-15
Onalaska cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-15Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)2024-12-162029-12-151,172
Seven Oaks cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-15Polk County (FEMA plan 110192)2024-12-162029-12-151,172this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-29
Chester Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2031-08-30Tyler County (FEMA plan 111663)2026-08-312031-08-301,795
Woodville Independent School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2031-08-30Tyler County (FEMA plan 111663)2026-08-312031-08-301,795

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$7,096,035$348$124,103$7,220,48647
2HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$5,098,613$28,375$184,846$5,311,8344
3TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$971,392$273$3,245,651$4,217,31513
4Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$19,461$4,327$3,826,595$3,850,3831
5Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$942,783$242,966$110,209$1,295,95789
6LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$8,387n/a$1,063,354$1,071,7420No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
7Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Low$196$28$909,573$909,79612
8Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$76,649n/a$136,576$213,2264
9WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$154,978$81$36,526$191,5850Declared 4 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$61,823n/a$23,850$85,674Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11HailVery LowVery Low$48,391$248$1,232$49,87191
12Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$32,590$16$3,539$36,1457
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$881n/a$21$9020No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14DroughtNo RatingNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$014

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local lightning, wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 2103.02 (Relatively Low, 42.1); tract 2105 (Very Low, 33.7); tract 2102.04 (Very Low, 29.5)
Hurricanetract 2103.02 (Relatively High, 96.0); tract 2105 (Relatively High, 93.3); tract 2102.04 (Relatively High, 92.4)
Landslidetract 2105 (Relatively Low, 87.9); tract 2103.02 (Relatively Low, 87.0); tract 2102.06 (Very Low, 79.3)
Tornadotract 2103.02 (Very High, 98.5); tract 2102.03 (Very High, 97.0); tract 2101.06 (Very High, 96.6)
Wildfiretract 2101.04 (Relatively Moderate, 90.7); tract 2101.06 (Relatively Moderate, 90.5); tract 2103.02 (Relatively Moderate, 89.9)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 2103.02 is Census Tract 2103.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2021 (1 zone-level)2 days; 1 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2021-02-15 to 2021-02-16, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)14 records, 1996 to 2023 (14 zone-level)17 days to 123 days (median 61 days); 6 with a recorded value123 days (4 months), 1998-05-01 to 1998-08-31, a run of 4 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 1998-08-01, $1,000,000 property; $7,300,000 crops, reported for the zone (1998 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)121 records, 1965 to 20250.75 in to 4.5 in (median 1 in); 121 with a recorded value4.5 in hail, 2019-05-09Hail, 2005-08-22, $50,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Livingston town (21 records), Corrigan town (19 records), Onalaska city (14 records), Goodrich city (3 records), Seven Oaks city (3 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)12 records, 1999 to 2023 (12 zone-level)1 day to 31 days (median 5 days); 11 with a recorded valueAugust 1999 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson4 records, 1998 to 2008 (4 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane (Typhoon) record (NOAA's event type name), 2008-09-12 to 2008-09-13, category 1, $100,000,000 property; crops not reported (2008 dollars); NWS zone TXZ179Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1997 to 2021 (4 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2007-01-16, $1,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars); NWS zone TXZ179Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)47 records, 1996 to 2024 (1 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2017-08-26, $300,000,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Corrigan town (6 records), Livingston town (6 records), Goodrich city (5 records), Onalaska city (5 records). Zone-level records (1) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)0Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)0
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)113 records, 1961 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 117 kt (135 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 70 with a recorded value117 kt (135 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-02-10Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Livingston town (21 records), Corrigan town (13 records), Onalaska city (9 records), Goodrich city (6 records), Seven Oaks city (2 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)29 records, 1959 to 2020F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF0); 28 with a recorded valueEF3 tornado, 2020-04-22, 28.51 mi within this county, 1,100 yd wide, $5,000,000 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars), 3 direct deaths, 33 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Livingston town (3 records), Onalaska city (3 records), Corrigan town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)7 records, 1998 to 2026 (7 zone-level)Winter Storm, 1998-12-22, $15,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars); NWS zone TXZ179Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 30 declarations covering 22 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-07-092024-07-05DR-4798-TXMajor disasterHurricane BerylHurricane$433,568.30in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2024-05-172024-04-26DR-4781-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Wind, Tornado$1,920,627.74in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-08-242020-08-23EM-3540-TXEmergencyTropical Storms Marco and LauraHurricane$46,377.98
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$179,268.48
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2019-02-252018-09-10DR-4416-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
2017-08-252017-08-23DR-4332-TXMajor disasterHurricane HarveyHurricane$794,719.48
2016-06-112016-05-22DR-4272-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$420,338.39
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$184,248.38
2011-09-092011-08-30DR-4029-TXMajor disasterWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2008-09-132008-09-07DR-1791-TXMajor disasterHurricane IkeHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$9,304,107.21
2008-09-102008-09-07EM-3294-TXEmergencyHurricane IkeHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1791
2008-08-292008-08-27EM-3290-TXEmergencyHurricane GustavHurricane$44,322.58
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$11,656.93
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane$1,375,972.75
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane$64,005.73same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-02-012003-02-01EM-3171-TXEmergencyLoss of the Space Shuttle ColumbiaNon-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-06-092001-06-05DR-1379-TXMajor disasterTx-Tropical Storm Allison-06-06-2001Hurricane$52,142.60
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-10-211998-10-17DR-1257-TXMajor disasterTx-Flooding 10/18/98Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado$218,144.32
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1996-02-231996-02-23EM-3117-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1994-10-181994-10-14DR-1041-TXMajor disasterSevere Thunderstorms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1991-12-261991-12-20DR-930-TXMajor disasterSevere ThunderstormsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1990-05-021990-04-15DR-863-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1989-05-191989-05-04DR-828-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1973-07-111973-07-11DR-398-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought14005001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1215512001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave12006001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane4000701996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm4000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding470771101996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Strong Wind1132512201955 to 2026-06-30
Tornado29000501950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000401996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 4 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Winter Weather7202001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2021-02-15Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$450,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ179 (POLK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2020-04-22TornadoEF3, 28.51 mi within this county, 1,100 yd wide$5,000,000 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars)3, 33ONALASKA to BARNESdeaths or injuries recorded
2019-05-09Hail4.5 indamage not reported0, 0ONALASKAB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2017-08-26Flash Flood$300,000,000 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0ONALASKA to LAKE LIVINGSTON DAMB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2008-09-12Hurricane (Typhoon), NOAA's event type namecategory 1$100,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ179 (POLK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2007-01-16Ice Storm$1,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ179 (POLK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
1999-08-01Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ179 (POLK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-12-22Winter Storm$15,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1998 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ179 (POLK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1998-05-01Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ179 (POLK), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
1998-02-10Thunderstorm Wind117 kt (135 mph), measurement type not recorded$14,000,000 property; $3,750,000 crops (1998 dollars)0, 0LIVINGSTON to CAMDENB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1986-05-17Thunderstorm Wind65 kt (75 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)3, 0location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded
1986-05-17Thunderstorm Wind80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)5, 0location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (352 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.632event-days per yearabout 0.632 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)122005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought19.7event-days per yearabout 19.7 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)8192000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000728annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0728%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.24events per yearabout 2.24 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)85.2 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave11.6event-days per yearabout 11.6 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)1952005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.11events per yearabout 1 in 9 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)391851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.614event-days per yearabout 0.614 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)431946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.04event-days per yearabout 1.04 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 17 of 30 years)event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)291996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.224events per year (modeled)about 1 in 4 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning70.3days per year with a strikeabout 70.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.71events per yearabout 1.71 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)651986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.737events per yearabout 0.74 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0019annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.19%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather1.53event-days per yearabout 1.53 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)292005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202546301.53
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202558301.93
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20255300.167
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202525300.833
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202512300.4
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave13 of 1373.391.397.1Very High 3, Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 1
Drought0 of 13No Rating 13
Earthquake13 of 1311.023.142.1Relatively Low 1, Very Low 12
Hail13 of 1327.241.760.0Relatively Low 11, Very Low 2
Heat Wave13 of 1342.173.187.1Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 1
Hurricane13 of 1382.489.996.0Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 7
Ice Storm13 of 1352.885.391.6Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 1
Inland Flooding13 of 1313.259.686.7Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Landslide13 of 1348.877.587.9Relatively Low 2, Very Low 11
Lightning13 of 1385.198.099.6Very High 10, Relatively High 3
Strong Wind13 of 1372.491.699.0Very High 2, Relatively High 10, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado13 of 1365.991.098.5Very High 5, Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire13 of 1372.388.090.7Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 8
Winter Weather13 of 1334.655.378.8Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 2

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Polk CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-12-15FMA RL 6, SRL 5; any 23$10,827,883.030 total; 0 since its planIncludes $175,714 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4485-TX).
Corrigan townTownApproved, expires 2029-12-15FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 1$437,051.6639 total; 0 since its planIncludes $3,554.48 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4485-TX).
Goodrich cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$65,291.3914 total; 0 since its plan
Livingston townTownApproved, expires 2029-12-15FMA RL 4, SRL 2; any 12$2,440,128.5851 total; 1 since its plan
Onalaska cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$251,333.4131 total; 0 since its plan
Seven Oaks cityCityApproved, expires 2029-12-15FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$2505 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-12-16county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$19,461$4,327$3,826,5950.000227%
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$15,164,366,287n/a50,123$61,823n/a$23,8500.000408%
Hail$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$48,391$248$1,2320.000564%$0
Heat Wave$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$196$28$909,573under 0.0001%
Hurricane$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$5,098,613$28,375$184,8460.0595%
Ice Storm$8,575,727,797n/a49,569$76,649n/a$136,5760.000894%
Inland Flooding$8,548,953,541$1,970,9111,991$7,096,035$348$124,103n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$72,123,222n/a360$881n/a$210.00122%
Lightning$8,575,727,797n/a49,569$8,387n/a$1,063,354under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$942,783$242,966$110,2090.011%$35,000
Tornado$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$971,392$273$3,245,6510.0113%
Wildfire$1,007,796,134$5,743,04214,885$154,978$81$36,5260.0154%
Winter Weather$8,575,727,797$8,801,24749,569$32,590$16$3,5390.00038%$0

Totals since 2024-12-16 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 7 county-coded records, 7 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $35,000; 2 zone-level records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population49,569
Building value (total, not at risk)$8,575,727,797
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$8,801,247
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$14,788,841
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$9,666,075
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)10Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)8
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition36Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition9

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total10836936018
of which: Polk County (unincorporated area)6523623013
of which: Corrigan city0111101
of which: Livingston city421221204
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Polk County4805266523623013
Corrigan town4805270111101
Goodrich city4810700000000
Livingston town480528421221204
Onalaska city4809740000000
Seven Oaks city4803140000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential8827927012
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0030303
non-residential2060603
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 26 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Polk County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48373). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48373/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.