Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Johnson County, TX

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
48251
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-06-12. Plan: Johnson County (FEMA plan 107118), approved 2024-06-13.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-06-13: no new federal declaration.

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 80 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Tornado ($28,034,453 a year), Inland Flooding ($23,194,201) and Cold Wave ($6,990,887).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 3, SRL 4 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 40.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-06-12
Plan:
Johnson County (FEMA plan 107118)
Approved:
2024-06-13
Days to expiry:
986

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-06-13)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
80 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 3, SRL 4 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 40
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Johnson CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-06-12Johnson County (FEMA plan 107118)2024-06-132029-06-12986
Alvarado cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleJohnson County (FEMA plan 107118), pending adoption here2024-06-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2029-06-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Burleson cityCityApproved, expires 2029-06-12Johnson County (FEMA plan 107118)2024-06-132029-06-12986this jurisdiction approved 2024-09-17
Cleburne cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleJohnson County (FEMA plan 107118), pending adoption here2024-06-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2029-06-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Cresson cityCityExpired on 2026-06-03Hood County (FEMA plan 106010)2021-06-042026-06-03-119
Crowley cityCityApproved, expires 2030-12-22Tarrant County (FEMA plan 110401)2025-12-232030-12-221,544this jurisdiction approved 2026-02-11
Godley cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleJohnson County (FEMA plan 107118), pending adoption here2024-06-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2029-06-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Joshua cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleJohnson County (FEMA plan 107118), pending adoption here2024-06-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2029-06-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Keene cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleJohnson County (FEMA plan 107118), pending adoption here2024-06-13 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2029-06-12 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Mansfield cityCityApproved, expires 2030-12-22Tarrant County (FEMA plan 110401)2025-12-232030-12-221,544this jurisdiction approved 2026-02-11

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1TornadoRelatively HighRelatively High$7,174,820$3,911$20,855,716$28,034,45342
2Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$20,724,456$122,992$2,346,753$23,194,201119
3Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively High$70,504$48,816$6,871,567$6,990,8877
4Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$699$339$4,450,095$4,451,13261
5WildfireRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$3,063,408$1,237$341,653$3,406,2989
6HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,124,630$3,093$306,645$1,434,368254
7Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$786,249$2,644$579,883$1,368,775196Includes 2 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$42,763n/a$666,060$708,82310
9Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively High$17,490n/a$489,286$506,7766
10EarthquakeVery LowRelatively Low$232,798n/a$97,393$330,191Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11HurricaneVery LowVery Low$89,289$25,127$5,383$119,7990No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$60,128n/a$60,12881
13Winter WeatherRelatively LowRelatively Low$48,610$87$1,422$50,11925
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$65n/a$7$720No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 1308 (Relatively Low, 45.0); tract 1303.02 (Relatively Low, 43.1); tract 1302.10 (Very Low, 35.8)
Hurricanetract 1301 (Very Low, 49.6); tract 1303.02 (Very Low, 48.8); tract 1305.02 (Very Low, 48.3)
Landslidetract 1306.04 (Very Low, 72.4); tract 1301 (Very Low, 66.0); tract 1306.02 (Very Low, 65.0)
Tornadotract 1308 (Very High, 99.7); tract 1304.05 (Very High, 99.5); tract 1302.10 (Very High, 99.5)
Wildfiretract 1301 (Relatively High, 98.5); tract 1306.02 (Relatively High, 97.1); tract 1305.02 (Relatively High, 97.1)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 1308 is Census Tract 1308). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill7 records, 1997 to 2026 (7 zone-level)1 day to 4 days (median 3 days); 7 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2026-01-24 to 2026-01-27, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)81 records, 1996 to 2023 (81 zone-level)6 days to 430 days (median 51.5 days); 20 with a recorded value430 days (about 14.1 months), 2014-02-25 to 2015-04-30, a run of 15 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2006-10-01, $500,000 property; $500,000 crops, reported for the zone (2006 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)376 records, 1958 to 20260.75 in to 5 in (median 1 in); 376 with a recorded value5 in hail, 1968-04-27Hail, 2012-04-03, $850,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cleburne city (42 records), Godley city (33 records), Burleson city (30 records), Joshua city (26 records), Alvarado city (23 records), Keene city (8 records), Mansfield city (3 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)61 records, 1998 to 2026 (61 zone-level)1 day to 85 days (median 3 days); 37 with a recorded valueJuly 2000 to September 2000 (3 monthly summary records), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)6 records, 1998 to 2023 (6 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2011-02-01, $75,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars); NWS zone TXZ133Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)119 records, 1996 to 2026Flash Flood, 2015-05-29, $1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cleburne city (30 records), Godley city (16 records), Mansfield city (13 records), Burleson city (11 records), Alvarado city (7 records), Joshua city (5 records), Keene city (2 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)10 records, 1996 to 2024Lightning, 2024-04-01, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cleburne city (4 records), Burleson city (2 records), Keene city (2 records), Godley city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)4 records, 2006 to 2025 (4 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 54 kt (62 mph) (median 48.5 kt (56 mph)); 4 with a recorded value54 kt (62 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2022-05-13; NWS zone TXZ133Strong Wind, 2025-03-04, $5,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2025 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)292 records, 1955 to 202639 kt (45 mph) to 96 kt (110 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 209 with a recorded value96 kt (110 mph) estimated sustained, Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-04-23Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Cleburne city (34 records), Burleson city (29 records), Godley city (20 records), Alvarado city (19 records), Joshua city (11 records), Keene city (5 records), Mansfield city (3 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)110 records, 1951 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 110 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1976-05-26, 1.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 300 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1976 dollars)Tornado, 2013-05-15, $124,000,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Godley city (7 records), Alvarado city (6 records), Cleburne city (3 records), Keene city (2 records), Mansfield city (2 records), Burleson city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)9 records, 2005 to 2023 (9 zone-level)Wildfire, 2005-11-27, $850,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars); NWS zone TXZ133Countywide (zone-level records).Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)25 records, 1996 to 2026 (25 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2013-12-05, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars); NWS zone TXZ133Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 19 declarations covering 10 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsNotes
2021-02-192021-02-11DR-4586-TXMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2021-02-142021-02-11EM-3554-TXEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4586
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4485-TXMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$712,503.92
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3458-TXEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4485
2015-05-292015-05-04DR-4223-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$541,089.29
2008-03-142008-03-14EM-3284-TXEmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-192006-01-17FM-2621-TXFire managementHuntington Brook FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1624
2006-01-112005-11-27DR-1624-TXMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$11,022.15
2005-09-242005-09-23DR-1606-TXMajor disasterHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$12,692.78
2005-09-212005-09-20EM-3261-TXEmergencyHurricane RitaHurricane: evacuation support (county designated for sheltering evacuees, no Individual Assistance), not a local hazard event; not counted$1,290.76same incident as DR-1606
2005-09-022005-08-29EM-3216-TXEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$57,391.37
2003-02-012003-02-01EM-3171-TXEmergencyLoss of the Space Shuttle ColumbiaNon-natural, not counted$12,090.74
2001-01-052000-08-28FM-2351-TXFire managementTx - Alsbury Fire - 08/29/00Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-09-011999-08-01EM-3142-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1998-08-261998-08-22DR-1239-TXMajor disasterTropical Storm CharleyHurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
1993-09-101993-08-30EM-3113-TXEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardDrought (primary); also designated: Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1991-12-261991-12-20DR-930-TXMajor disasterSevere ThunderstormsInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1990-05-021990-04-15DR-863-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1989-05-191989-05-04DR-828-TXMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-06-231998-06-04EM-3127-TXEmergencyFireWildfire
1963-09-241963-09-24DR-159-TXMajor disasterHurricane CindyHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1961-09-161961-09-16DR-118-TXMajor disasterHurricane CarlaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-103-TXMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-93-TXMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1958-06-061958-06-06DR-85-TXMajor disasterTornadoes, Rain, Hail & FloodsTornado (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1957-04-291957-04-29DR-72-TXMajor disasterHurricane, Rain, Wind, Hail & FloodsHurricane (primary); also designated: Hail, Inland Flooding
1954-07-011954-07-01DR-18-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-06-191953-06-19DR-9-TXMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1953-05-151953-05-15DR-2-TXMajor disasterTornado & Heavy RainfallTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

91 Fire Management declarations (1988-03-12 to 2009-04-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Texas county: 1 row, $902,084.65; listed on the Texas state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave7404001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought810314101996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail37641484001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave61151335001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm6001101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding1197412401996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning10011001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind2969629101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado110307301950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire9012501996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather25102001996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-01-24Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2026 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ133 (JOHNSON), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2024-05-05Flash Flood$20,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)1, 0RETTAin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-04-01Lightning$250,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)0, 0VENUSin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2023-08-01Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2023 dollars)1, 0NWS zone TXZ133 (JOHNSON), zone-levelin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2022-05-13High Wind54 kt (62 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ133 (JOHNSON), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2017-04-14Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2017 dollars)1, 0NWS zone TXZ133 (JOHNSON), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2015-05-29Flash Flood$1,500,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)0, 0RETTA to LAKE PAT CLEBURNEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2005-11-27Wildfire$850,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2005 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TXZ133 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2003-04-23Thunderstorm Wind96 kt (110 mph) estimated sustained$4,000,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)0, 0LILLIANB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2000-07-01Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone TXZ133 (JOHNSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1976-05-26TornadoF4, 1.9 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 300 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1976 dollars)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1968-04-27Hail5 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (1,100 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.842event-days per yearabout 0.842 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)162005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought44.5event-days per yearabout 44.5 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)1,5612000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00068annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.068%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail8.61events per yearabout 8.61 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)326.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave16.7event-days per yearabout 16.7 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 13 of 30 years)event-days in 13 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (43.3%)2722005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0227events per yearabout 1 in 44 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)81851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.992event-days per yearabout 0.992 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)671946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.5event-days per yearabout 2.5 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 23 of 30 years)event-days in 23 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (76.7%)701996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.101events per year (modeled)about 1 in 10 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning53days per year with a strikeabout 53 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.81events per yearabout 3.81 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1451986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.68events per yearabout 0.68 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00377annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.377%Likely (from Storm Events: 7 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather3.58event-days per yearabout 3.58 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 17 of 30 years)event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)682005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025153305.1
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202523300.767
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025139304.63
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202530301
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202521300.7
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202536301.2
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave39 of 3962.281.488.8Relatively High 23, Relatively Moderate 16
Drought25 of 3969.879.487.3Relatively Low 15, Very Low 10, No Rating 14
Earthquake39 of 3910.723.245.0Relatively Low 2, Very Low 37
Hail39 of 3965.976.387.6Relatively Moderate 31, Relatively Low 8
Heat Wave39 of 3960.082.890.0Relatively High 15, Relatively Moderate 24
Hurricane39 of 3934.043.649.6Very Low 39
Ice Storm39 of 3956.075.984.8Relatively Moderate 28, Relatively Low 11
Inland Flooding39 of 3917.045.280.8Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 14, Relatively Low 23
Landslide38 of 399.125.472.4Very Low 38, No Rating 1
Lightning39 of 3940.964.778.5Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 33, Relatively Low 4
Strong Wind39 of 3949.568.383.9Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 33, Relatively Low 4
Tornado39 of 3987.398.299.7Very High 34, Relatively High 5
Wildfire39 of 3921.592.498.5Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 22, Relatively Low 8, Very Low 5
Winter Weather39 of 3924.033.851.5Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 36

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Johnson CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-06-12FMA RL 3, SRL 2; any 21$347,841.780 total; 0 since its planIncludes $18,431.60 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3171-TX, EM-3216-TX).
Alvarado cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1no Public Assistance recorded55 total; no approved plan
Burleson cityCityApproved, expires 2029-06-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 8$724,758.7973 total; 3 since its planIncludes $724,758.79 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, DR-4485-TX, EM-3216-TX, EM-3261-TX).
Cleburne cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 7$243,781.51113 total; no approved planIncludes $48,725.28 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX, EM-3216-TX).
Cresson cityCityExpired on 2026-06-03FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Crowley cityCityApproved, expires 2030-12-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Godley cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded77 total; no approved plan
Joshua cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,199.9142 total; no approved planIncludes $1,199.91 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-1606-TX).
Keene cityCityPlan 107118 approved 2024-06-13, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$019 total; no approved plan
Mansfield cityCityApproved, expires 2030-12-22FMA RL 8, SRL 6; any 20no Public Assistance recorded21 total; 0 since its planWhole community, including the part in Tarrant County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 0, FMA SRL 1, NFIP RL 2, NFIP SRL 1, any category 2.

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets
  • Texas A&M Forest Service TxWRAP for wildfire risk; Texas State Hazard Mitigation Plan hazard list for B1-a exclusions.

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-06-13county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$32,047,863,218$74,480,513179,719$70,504$48,816$6,871,5670.00022%$0
Droughtn/a$17,874,851n/an/a$60,128n/a0.336% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$56,829,057,778n/a179,927$232,798n/a$97,3930.00041%
Hail$32,047,863,218$74,480,513179,719$1,124,630$3,093$306,6450.00351%$400,000
Heat Wave$32,047,863,218$74,480,513179,719$699$339$4,450,095under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$31,966,091,504$73,964,075179,385$89,289$25,127$5,3830.000279%
Ice Storm$32,047,863,218n/a179,719$17,490n/a$489,286under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$32,024,212,392$5,790,0725,521$20,724,456$122,992$2,346,753n/a (see note)$11,000NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$68,296,059n/a274$65n/a$7under 0.0001%
Lightning$32,047,863,218n/a179,719$42,763n/a$666,0600.000133%
Strong Wind$32,047,863,218$74,480,513179,719$786,249$2,644$579,8830.00245%$66,000$5,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level Strong Wind record ($5,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$32,047,863,218$74,480,513179,719$7,174,820$3,911$20,855,7160.0224%$51,000
Wildfire$8,749,746,850$43,501,83372,475$3,063,408$1,237$341,6530.035%
Winter Weather$32,047,863,218$74,480,513179,719$48,610$87$1,4220.000152%$0

Totals since 2024-06-13 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 59 county-coded records, 59 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $528,000; 21 zone-level records, 21 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $5,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population179,719
Building value (total, not at risk)$32,047,863,218
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$74,480,513
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$33,644,155
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$37,011,862
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)3Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)4
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition40Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total3440440016
of which: Alvarado city0010101
of which: Mansfield city0121200
of which: Johnson County (unincorporated area)322122109
of which: Keene city0010100
of which: Burleson city0080804
of which: Cleburne city0171702
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file381271319

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Johnson County480879322122109
Alvarado city4803970010101
Burleson city4854590080804
Cleburne city4854620171702
Cresson city4801770000000
Crowley city4805910000000
Godley city4808800000000
Joshua city4808820000000
Keene city4811070010100
Mansfield city480606861242064Whole community, including the part in Tarrant County; in-county portion (county table): FMA RL 0, FMA SRL 1, NFIP RL 2, NFIP SRL 1, any category 2.

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential3437437015
2 to 4 unit residential0010100
other residential0010100
non-residential0010101
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 37 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Johnson County, TX: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 48251). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tx/48251/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.