Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Williamson County, TN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
47187
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-11-13. Plan: Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784), approved 2024-11-14.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-11-14: 3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 83 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($56,972,085 a year), Cold Wave ($13,411,043) and Tornado ($11,550,093).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-11-13
Plan:
Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)
Approved:
2024-11-14
Days to expiry:
1,140

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-11-14)

New federal declarations:
3 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): EM-3625-TN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), EM-3635-TN (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
83 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 10, SRL 23 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 86
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Williamson County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2024-11-27
Brentwood cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140
Fairview cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-06
Franklin cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2025-04-29
Nolensville townTownApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-10
Spring Hill cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-20Maury County (FEMA plan 110137)2024-11-212029-11-201,147Also approved under plan 109784 (Williamson County, expires 2029-11-13). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-15
Thompson's Station townTownApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2025-01-06
Franklin Special School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2025-05-13
Williamson County School DistrictSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2029-11-13Williamson County (FEMA plan 109784)2024-11-142029-11-131,140this jurisdiction approved 2024-11-26

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$55,777,582$2,140$1,192,363$56,972,08597
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$1,487$6,704$13,402,852$13,411,0431
3TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively High$7,077,812$2,155$4,470,126$11,550,09319
4EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$6,412,546n/a$2,070,978$8,483,524Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
5Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$286,610$5,981$3,079,218$3,371,808414Includes 7 High Wind and 8 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
6Heat WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$1,042$171$1,775,926$1,777,1404
7Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$878,876n/a$131,195$1,010,0722
8Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively High$71,932$1$396,999$468,93266
9LightningRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$130,795n/a$337,026$467,82131
10HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$321,339$686$9,666$331,692184
11DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$77,213n/a$77,21329
12HurricaneVery LowVery Low$48,669$5,495$1,237$55,4020No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$40,245$10$4,410$44,6640No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$1,481n/a$1,677$3,1570No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 503.04 (Relatively Moderate, 87.9); tract 509.07 (Relatively Moderate, 84.1); tract 503.07 (Relatively Moderate, 83.8)
Hurricanetract 511 (Very Low, 44.6); tract 501.03 (Very Low, 42.3); tract 506.04 (Very Low, 39.9)
Landslidetract 505.02 (Relatively Low, 93.2); tract 512.03 (Relatively Low, 92.8); tract 511 (Relatively Low, 87.9)
Tornadotract 511 (Very High, 94.9); tract 506.04 (Relatively High, 89.4); tract 512.06 (Relatively High, 87.0)
Wildfiretract 511 (Relatively Low, 80.5); tract 501.03 (Relatively Low, 73.8); tract 510.02 (Relatively Low, 70.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 503.04 is Census Tract 503.04). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2022 (1 zone-level)1 day; 1 with a recorded value1 consecutive day, 2022-12-23, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)29 records, 2007 to 2026 (29 zone-level)14 days to 214 days (median 61 days); 10 with a recorded value214 days (7 months), 2007-05-01 to 2007-11-30, a run of 7 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)197 records, 1961 to 20250.75 in to 3 in (median 1 in); 197 with a recorded value3 in hail, 2025-05-20; same size also recorded on 2024-05-26, 2025-05-20Hail, 2024-05-26, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Franklin city (39 records), Fairview city (18 records), Nolensville town (11 records), Thompson's Station town (11 records), Brentwood city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 2010 to 2025 (4 zone-level)1 day to 2 days (median 1 day); 3 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2025-07-29 to 2025-07-30, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)2 records, 2010 to 2013 (2 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2010-01-29, $25,000 property; crops not reported (2010 dollars); NWS zone TNZ059Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)97 records, 1996 to 2025 (4 zone-level)Flood, 2010-05-02, $10,000,000 property; $1,000 crops (2010 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Nolensville town (12 records), Franklin city (10 records), Fairview city (8 records), Thompson's Station town (4 records). Zone-level records (4) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)31 records, 1998 to 2024Lightning, 2010-10-24, $1,750,000 property; crops not reported (2010 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Franklin city (5 records), Fairview city (4 records), Nolensville town (2 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)15 records, 2001 to 2025 (15 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 55 kt (63 mph) (median 45 kt (52 mph)); 15 with a recorded value55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2013-01-30; NWS zone TNZ059High Wind, 2023-03-03, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)430 records, 1960 to 202643 kt (49 mph) to 90 kt (104 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 393 with a recorded value90 kt (104 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-05-05Thunderstorm Wind, 2020-05-03, $703,420 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Franklin city (57 records), Fairview city (48 records), Nolensville town (28 records), Thompson's Station town (10 records), Brentwood city (3 records), Spring Hill city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)26 records, 1963 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF0); 26 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1988-12-24, 6 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 150 yd wide, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1988 dollars), 1 direct death, 7 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Franklin city (4 records), Nolensville town (2 records), Thompson's Station town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)66 records, 1996 to 2026 (66 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2015-02-16, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); NWS zone TNZ059Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 16 declarations covering 12 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-02-062026-01-22DR-4898-TNMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$7,790,668.74new since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-01-242026-01-22EM-3635-TNEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4898
2025-04-022025-04-02EM-3625-TNEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-05-082021-03-25DR-4601-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$553,973
2020-04-022020-01-20DR-4514-TNMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$1,241,608.08
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3473-TNEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4514
2010-05-042010-04-30DR-1909-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$3,606,169.50
2008-02-072008-02-05DR-1745-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$534,571.02
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3217-TNEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$85,829.83
2003-05-082003-05-04DR-1464-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$714,788.86
1999-05-121999-05-05DR-1275-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$232,978.46
1998-04-201998-04-16DR-1215-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1994-02-281994-02-09DR-1010-TNMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice Storm,Flash FloodingIce Storm; Inland Flooding; Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1979-05-071979-05-07DR-585-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1975-03-221975-03-22DR-459-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1974-04-041974-04-04DR-424-TNMajor disasterTornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $367,381.83 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1963-03-271963-03-27DR-151-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Tennessee county: 5 rows, $12,113,670.26; listed on the Tennessee state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave1001001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought293515001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail197431871001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4203001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm2000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding97100161011996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning31024001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind445221189311955 to 2026-06-30Includes 7 High Wind and 8 Strong Wind records.
Tornado26102911950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather66218211996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-07-29Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TNZ059 (WILLIAMSON), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2025-05-20Hail3 in$0 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)0, 0DOUGLASnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2022-12-23Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TNZ059 (WILLIAMSON), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2022-10-12Thunderstorm Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)1, 0FOREST HOMEwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2020-05-03Thunderstorm Wind56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars)1, 0HARPETHdeaths or injuries recorded
2015-02-16Winter Storm$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TNZ059 (WILLIAMSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2013-01-30High Wind55 kt (63 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2013 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TNZ059 (WILLIAMSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2010-10-24Lightning$1,750,000 property; crops not reported (2010 dollars)0, 0MALLORYSB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2010-05-02Flood$10,000,000 property; $1,000 crops (2010 dollars)0, 0NOLENSVILLEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2010-01-29Ice Storm$25,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TNZ059 (WILLIAMSON), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2003-05-05Thunderstorm Wind90 kt (104 mph) estimated gust$206,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)0, 0FAIRVIEWB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1988-12-24TornadoF4, 6 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 150 yd wide$25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1988 dollars)1, 7location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (898 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1.16event-days per yearabout 1.16 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)222005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought9.57event-days per yearabout 9.57 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)3852000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00336annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.336%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.5events per yearabout 3.5 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)133.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave4.95event-days per yearabout 4.95 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)812005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.0161events per yearabout 1 in 62 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)61851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.618event-days per yearabout 0.618 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)421946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.18event-days per yearabout 2.18 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 26 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (86.7%)611996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.864events per year (modeled)about 0.86 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning60.5days per year with a strikeabout 60.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind6.11events per yearabout 6.11 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)2331986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.51events per yearabout 0.51 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000047annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0047%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather5.16event-days per yearabout 5.16 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 20 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (66.7%)982005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025109303.63
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202519300.633
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 20253473011.6
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202510300.333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202538301.27
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202517300.567
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20252300.0667
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave46 of 4653.683.394.6Relatively High 31, Relatively Moderate 15
Drought20 of 4670.379.288.9Relatively Low 11, Very Low 9, No Rating 26
Earthquake46 of 4643.174.287.9Relatively Moderate 16, Relatively Low 30
Hail46 of 4630.241.861.8Relatively Low 37, Very Low 9
Heat Wave46 of 469.738.265.1Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 35, Very Low 6
Hurricane46 of 4625.531.744.6Very Low 46
Ice Storm46 of 4659.277.892.3Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 36, Relatively Low 8
Inland Flooding46 of 4623.265.397.8Very High 1, Relatively High 11, Relatively Moderate 20, Relatively Low 14
Landslide46 of 4611.746.993.2Relatively Low 4, Very Low 42
Lightning46 of 4615.437.260.6Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 39, Very Low 2
Strong Wind46 of 4649.179.292.8Relatively High 19, Relatively Moderate 25, Relatively Low 2
Tornado46 of 4647.470.394.9Very High 1, Relatively High 16, Relatively Moderate 28, Relatively Low 1
Wildfire46 of 4642.360.280.5Relatively Low 4, Very Low 42
Winter Weather46 of 4648.074.289.9Relatively High 18, Relatively Moderate 26, Relatively Low 2

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Williamson County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2029-11-13FMA RL 0, SRL 5; any 30$3,128,733.450 total; 0 since its planIncludes $8,293.17 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (EM-3217-TN).
Brentwood cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-13FMA RL 8, SRL 10; any 31$5,891,058.494 total; 0 since its plan
Fairview cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-13FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 1$2,262,538.1978 total; 4 since its plan
Franklin cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-13FMA RL 2, SRL 7; any 15$1,521,073.63115 total; 6 since its planIncludes $115,354.07 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4514-TN, EM-3217-TN).
Nolensville townTownApproved, expires 2029-11-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 8$31,148.8355 total; 1 since its planIncludes $7,463.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4514-TN).
Spring Hill cityCityApproved, expires 2029-11-20FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1no Public Assistance recorded1 total; 0 since its planAlso approved under plan 109784 (Williamson County, expires 2029-11-13). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. Whole community, including the part in Maury County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Thompson's Station townTownApproved, expires 2029-11-13FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded26 total; 2 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-11-14county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$61,392,881,948$39,793,160247,523$1,487$6,704$13,402,852under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$19,378,759n/an/a$77,213n/a0.398% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$103,160,324,843n/a247,726$6,412,546n/a$2,070,9780.00622%
Hail$61,392,881,948$39,793,160247,523$321,339$686$9,6660.000523%$0
Heat Wave$61,392,881,948$39,793,160247,523$1,042$171$1,775,926under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$61,373,609,441$39,704,203247,438$48,669$5,495$1,237under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$61,385,588,893n/a247,445$878,876n/a$131,1950.00143%
Inland Flooding$61,321,455,606$6,667,6845,094$55,777,582$2,140$1,192,363n/a (see note)$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$2,633,633,144n/a9,442$1,481n/a$1,677under 0.0001%
Lightning$61,392,881,948n/a247,523$130,795n/a$337,0260.000213%
Strong Wind$61,392,881,948$39,793,160247,523$286,610$5,981$3,079,2180.000467%$165,000$5,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level Strong Wind record ($5,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$61,392,881,948$39,793,160247,523$7,077,812$2,155$4,470,1260.0115%$25,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$31,171,063,473$23,961,259137,525$40,245$10$4,4100.000129%
Winter Weather$61,392,881,948$39,793,160247,523$71,932$1$396,9990.000117%$0$7,790,668.74

Totals since 2024-11-14 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 75 county-coded records, 75 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $190,000; 8 zone-level records, 4 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $5,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $7,790,668.74 on 3 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population247,523
Building value (total, not at risk)$61,392,881,948
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$39,793,160
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$71,150,972
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$26,873,674
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)10Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)23
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition76Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition15

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total1023761586844
of which: Williamson County (unincorporated area)0529430114
of which: Brentwood city81027731320
of which: Franklin city271031544
of which: Fairview city0111100
of which: Nolensville town0080806
of which: Unknown (community ID Unknown in FEMA data)0010100

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Williamson County (unincorporated area)4702040529430114
Brentwood city47020581027731320
Fairview city4702420111100
Franklin city470206271031544
Nolensville town4704250080806
Spring Hill city4702780010100Whole community, including the part in Maury County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Thompson's Station town4704240000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential1022721482843
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0141401
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 3 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 69 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Williamson County, TN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 47187). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tn/47187/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]