Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Marion County, TN

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
47115
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Expired on 2025-08-05. Plan: Marion County (FEMA plan 106517), approved 2020-08-06.

Since the plan was approved on 2020-08-06: 5 new hazard declarations (4 incidents): DR-4601-TN (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4712-TN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado), EM-3625-TN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), EM-3635-TN (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 69 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($7,749,796 a year), Tornado ($3,532,814) and Cold Wave ($2,628,722).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 12.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Expired on 2025-08-05
Plan:
Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)
Approved:
2020-08-06
Days since expiry:
421
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

Until a new plan is approved, FEMA mitigation project grants (HMGP, FMA) need a FEMA exception (44 CFR 201.6(a)(3)).

What changed since your last plan (approved 2020-08-06)

New federal declarations:
5 new hazard declarations (4 incidents): DR-4601-TN (Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding), DR-4712-TN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornado), EM-3625-TN (Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding), EM-3635-TN (Severe Winter Storm), DR-4898-TN (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
69 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 12
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Marion CountyCountyExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
Jasper townTownExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
Kimball townTownExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
Monteagle townTownExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
New Hope cityCityExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
Powells Crossroads townTownExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
South Pittsburg cityCityExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
Marion County School DistrictSchool/School DistrictExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421
Richard City Special School DistrictSchool/School DistrictExpired on 2025-08-05Marion County (FEMA plan 106517)2020-08-062025-08-05-421

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$7,104,068$28,346$617,382$7,749,79629
2TornadoRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,067,080$1,613$2,464,121$3,532,81413
3Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$3,593$17,097$2,608,032$2,628,7220No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
4Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$185,697$11,107$1,027,491$1,224,296239
5EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$490,705n/a$160,635$651,340Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$139,775n/a$139,7750No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
7LightningRelatively LowRelatively Low$10,071n/a$94,571$104,6421
8Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$8$49$94,910$94,9670No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
9Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$38,210$1$44,155$82,36630
10WildfireVery LowVery Low$50,045$87$17,005$67,1380Declared 2 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
11HailVery LowVery Low$49,507$430$8,507$58,44563
12Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$47,047n/a$7,422$54,4692
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$17,294$2,684$704$20,6821
14LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,106n/a$13,414$14,5200Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 503.01 (Relatively Moderate, 83.3); tract 501.02 (Relatively Low, 76.8); tract 502.04 (Relatively Low, 75.6)
Hurricanetract 503.01 (Very Low, 49.8); tract 503.02 (Very Low, 47.3); tract 501.02 (Very Low, 45.8)
Landslidetract 502.01 (Relatively Moderate, 96.7); tract 503.02 (Relatively Moderate, 96.5); tract 501.02 (Relatively Moderate, 96.0)
Tornadotract 503.01 (Very High, 99.4); tract 501.02 (Very High, 98.9); tract 503.02 (Very High, 97.4)
Wildfiretract 501.02 (Relatively Moderate, 89.0); tract 502.01 (Relatively Moderate, 88.7); tract 501.01 (Relatively Low, 82.5)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 503.01 is Census Tract 503.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)75 records, 1976 to 20260.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 75 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2012-03-02; same size also recorded on 2006-05-20, 2011-04-27Hail, 1995-05-18, $5,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: South Pittsburg city (17 records), Jasper town (12 records), Kimball town (1 record), Monteagle town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson1 record, 2004 (1 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2004-09-16, $15,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars); NWS zone TNZ098Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)2 records, 1998 to 2005 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)29 records, 1998 to 2025 (3 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2003-05-08, $11,620,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Jasper town (5 records), South Pittsburg city (5 records), Kimball town (2 records). Zone-level records (3) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2010Lightning, 2010-07-11, $25,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: South Pittsburg city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)0
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)263 records, 1955 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 113 kt (130 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 209 with a recorded value113 kt (130 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2007-11-14Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-03-19, $100,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Jasper town (55 records), South Pittsburg city (24 records), Kimball town (7 records), New Hope city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)21 records, 1963 to 2023F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 21 with a recorded valueEF2 tornado, 2007-11-14, 1.96 mi within this county, 200 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not reported (2007 dollars), 9 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Jasper town (2 records), South Pittsburg city (2 records), Kimball town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)30 records, 1996 to 2026 (30 zone-level)No damage reported in 30 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 25 declarations covering 21 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-02-062026-01-22DR-4898-TNMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2026-01-242026-01-22EM-3635-TNEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4898
2025-04-022025-04-02EM-3625-TNEmergencySevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2023-05-172023-03-01DR-4712-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoStrong Wind; Tornado$410,261.92new since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-05-082021-03-25DR-4601-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$22,005.92new since last plan
2020-04-242020-04-12DR-4541-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$375,050.95in the 12 months before plan approval
2020-04-022020-01-20DR-4514-TNMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$7,023.27in the 12 months before plan approval
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3473-TNEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approvalsame incident as DR-4514
2019-04-172019-02-19DR-4427-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$409,740.55
2014-08-132014-06-05DR-4189-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$208,221.20
2011-07-202011-06-18DR-4005-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, andStrong Wind; Tornado$73,538.39
2011-05-012011-04-25DR-1974-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Associated FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3217-TNEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted$7,001.35
2003-05-082003-05-04DR-1464-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$313,661.55
2003-03-202003-02-14DR-1456-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$126,082.50
2001-11-032001-11-03FM-2387-TNFire managementTn - Chattanooga Fire Complex - 11/03/01Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-04-131999-04-13FM-2250-TNFire managementTn - Wildfires 4/13/99Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1999-01-151998-12-23DR-1260-TNMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$9,972
1994-04-141994-03-25DR-1022-TNMajor disasterExtensive Rainfall and Flash FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-141993-03-13EM-3095-TNEmergencySevere Snowfall, Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1991-01-041990-12-19DR-889-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1990-02-271990-02-15DR-858-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1982-08-241982-08-24DR-666-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1974-04-041974-04-04DR-424-TNMajor disasterTornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded
1973-03-211973-03-21DR-366-TNMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $375 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1963-03-271963-03-27DR-151-TNMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 3 rows, $826,979.85

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4878-TN2025-06-19Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingSequachee Valley Electric Cooperative$227,597.57
DR-4742-TN2023-09-27Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and TornadoSequachee Valley Electric Cooperative$467,808.93
DR-4211-TN2015-04-02Severe Winter Storm and FloodingSEQUACHEE VALLEY ELECTRIC$131,573.35

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Public Assistance not placed in any Tennessee county: 5 rows, $12,113,670.26; listed on the Tennessee state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Drought0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail7514011001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding294331321996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind26344641621955 to 2026-06-30
Tornado21101931950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000201996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 2 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Winter Weather30606311996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2020-04-12Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars)1, 0KIMBALLin the 12 months before plan approvaldeaths or injuries recorded
2018-12-28Flash Flood$0 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)1, 0MARTIN SPGSdeaths or injuries recorded
2015-12-25Flash Flood$280,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)1, 0SOUTH PITTSBURGdeaths or injuries recorded
2014-02-20Thunderstorm Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust$0 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)2, 1SOUTH PITTSBURGdeaths or injuries recorded
2012-03-02Hail2.75 indamage not reported0, 0ANTIOCHB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2010-07-11Lightning$25,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)0, 0SOUTH PITTSBURGB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2007-11-14Thunderstorm Wind113 kt (130 mph) estimated gustdamage not reported0, 0KIMBALLB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2007-11-14TornadoEF2, 1.96 mi within this county, 200 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not reported (2007 dollars)0, 9KIMBALLB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2004-09-16Tropical Storm$15,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2004 dollars)0, 0NWS zone TNZ098 (MARION), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2003-05-08Flash Flood$11,620,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1998-03-19Thunderstorm Windspeed not recorded$100,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0JASPERB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
1995-05-18Hail1.75 in$5,000 property; crops not recorded (1995 dollars)0, 0South PittsburgB1-c most damaging: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (422 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave1event-day per yearabout 1 day per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)192005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought29.7event-days per yearabout 29.7 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)8682000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00324annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.324%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.82events per yearabout 3.82 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)144.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave1.63event-days per yearabout 1.63 days per yearevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)292005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.0136events per yearabout 1 in 73 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.758event-days per yearabout 0.758 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 2 of 30 years)event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)511946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.821event-days per yearabout 0.821 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)231996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide1.07events per year (modeled)about 1.07 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning61.6days per year with a strikeabout 61.6 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind5.18events per yearabout 5.18 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1971986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.393events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00335annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.335%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather5.16event-days per yearabout 5.16 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 16 of 30 years)event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)982005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202533301.1
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20254300.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025196306.53
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20259300.3
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202530301
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202510300.333
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20253300.1
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave7 of 787.793.397.6Very High 3, Relatively High 4
Drought7 of 786.990.494.3Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 5
Earthquake7 of 748.771.683.3Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 6
Hail7 of 740.557.167.4Relatively Low 7
Heat Wave7 of 712.420.435.8Relatively Low 5, Very Low 2
Hurricane7 of 737.143.949.8Very Low 7
Ice Storm7 of 743.067.282.6Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 4
Inland Flooding7 of 758.686.393.8Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 1
Landslide7 of 783.395.296.7Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 4
Lightning7 of 746.060.777.4Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 1
Strong Wind7 of 792.697.799.1Very High 4, Relatively High 3
Tornado7 of 786.297.299.4Very High 5, Relatively High 2
Wildfire7 of 776.182.389.0Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 5
Winter Weather7 of 773.786.993.9Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Marion CountyCountyExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 3$528,623.510 total; 0 since its planIncludes $14,024.62 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4514-TN, EM-3217-TN).
Jasper townTownExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3$147,051.9974 total; 3 since its plan
Kimball townTownExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$44,404.6911 total; 3 since its plan
Monteagle townTownExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded1 total; 0 since its plan
New Hope cityCityExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$20,6581 total; 0 since its plan
Powells Crossroads townTownExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
South Pittsburg cityCityExpired on 2025-08-05FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 6$549,268.6849 total; 7 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2020-08-06county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$5,129,640,383$21,966,64328,731$3,593$17,097$2,608,032under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$5,780,527n/an/a$139,775n/a2.42% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$8,920,268,620n/a28,837$490,705n/a$160,6350.0055%
Hail$5,129,640,383$21,966,64328,731$49,507$430$8,5070.000965%$0
Heat Wave$5,129,640,383$21,966,64328,731$8$49$94,910under 0.0001%
Hurricane$5,125,470,752$21,546,76628,712$17,294$2,684$7040.000337%
Ice Storm$5,129,640,383n/a28,731$47,047n/a$7,4220.000917%
Inland Flooding$5,123,527,613$8,895,7521,223$7,104,068$28,346$617,382n/a (see note)$0$22,005.92NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$340,594,718n/a2,239$1,106n/a$13,4140.000325%
Lightning$5,129,640,383n/a28,731$10,071n/a$94,5710.000196%
Strong Wind$5,129,640,383$21,966,64328,731$185,697$11,107$1,027,4910.00362%$410,261.92
Tornado$5,129,640,383$21,966,64328,731$1,067,080$1,613$2,464,1210.0208%$432,267.84
Wildfire$241,563,955$3,522,8203,912$50,045$87$17,0050.0207%
Winter Weather$5,129,640,383$21,966,64328,731$38,210$1$44,1550.000745%$0no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)

Totals since 2020-08-06 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 63 county-coded records, 7 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0; 6 zone-level records, 3 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $432,267.84 on 5 counted declarations, 2 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population28,731
Building value (total, not at risk)$5,129,640,383
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$21,966,643
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$9,265,621
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$7,158,350
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition12Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total011211205
of which: Marion County (unincorporated area)0131300
of which: Jasper town0030300
of which: South Pittsburg city0060605

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Marion County4701140131300
Jasper town4754290030300
Kimball town4701160000000
Monteagle town4703090000000
New Hope city4703770000000
Powells Crossroads town4704560000000
South Pittsburg city4754470060605

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential011011004
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0020201
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 12 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Marion County, TN: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 47115). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/tn/47115/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.