Hazard Plain Automated baseline

San Juan Municipio, PR

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
72127
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-09-17. Plan: San Juan 2026 (FEMA plan 112061), approved 2026-09-18.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-09-18: no new hazard declaration; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hurricane ($193,328,387 a year), Earthquake ($132,083,868) and Tsunami ($65,354,421).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-09-17
Plan:
San Juan 2026 (FEMA plan 112061)
Approved:
2026-09-18
Days to expiry:
1,813

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-09-18)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
San Juan MunicipioCountyApproved, expires 2031-09-17San Juan 2026 (FEMA plan 112061)2026-09-182031-09-171,813

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6, 10

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HurricaneInsufficient DataVery High$184,486,172$0$8,842,216$193,328,38738Includes 5 Flash Flood, 12 Flood, 4 Heavy Rain, 1 Strong Wind and 4 Thunderstorm Wind records whose NOAA event or episode narrative names a tropical cyclone (NOAA's type kept; each also counts under that type's hazard, except Heavy Rain, which is no NRI hazard).
2EarthquakeInsufficient DataRelatively High$65,974,516n/a$66,109,351$132,083,868Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
3TsunamiInsufficient DataVery High$705,724n/a$64,648,697$65,354,4210No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
4Inland FloodingInsufficient DataRelatively Moderate$34,088,280$0$120,984$34,209,264525
5LandslideInsufficient DataRelatively High$4,941,002n/a$7,960$4,948,96331
6LightningInsufficient DataVery High$130,608n/a$3,252,271$3,382,8796
7Coastal FloodingInsufficient DataRelatively Moderate$637,076n/a$276,237$913,31312
8TornadoInsufficient DataVery Low$152,257$0$122,076$274,3331
9Strong WindInsufficient DataVery Low$1,526$0$9,376$10,90238Includes 1 High Wind and 8 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10Volcanic ActivityInsufficient DataRelatively Low$27n/a$8,186$8,2135
11HailInsufficient DataVery Low$898$0$4,805$5,7031
12Cold WaveInsufficient DataNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$01
12DroughtInsufficient DataNo Expected Annual Lossesn/a$0n/a$01
12Heat WaveInsufficient DataNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$027
12Winter WeatherInsufficient DataNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
WildfireInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Hazards with the same expected annual loss share a rank.

Local data needed: state and local tsunami, winter weather and wildfire records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and ice storm. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquakeno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslideno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Tornadono tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Volcanic Activityno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfireno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number. FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7, 11

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)12 records, 1998 to 2025 (11 zone-level)Coastal Flood, 1999-02-01, $15,000 property; crops not reported (1999 dollars); Storm Events area SAN JUAN (legacy zone code PRZ127)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (11) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 2000 (1 zone-level)5 days; 1 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2000-01-16 to 2000-01-20, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)1 record, 2000 (1 zone-level)31 days; 1 with a recorded value31 days (1 month), 2000-03-01 to 2000-03-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)1 record, 20000.75 in; 1 with a recorded value0.75 in hail, 2000-02-23No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)27 records, 2023 to 2024 (27 zone-level)1 day to 30 days (median 2 days); 17 with a recorded valueSeptember 2023 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson12 records, 1998 to 2024 (12 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 1998-09-21 to 1998-09-22, $243,000,000 property; $43,000,000 crops (1998 dollars); Storm Events area SAN JUAN (legacy zone code PRZ127)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Wind, rain, flood or surge records whose NOAA event or episode narrative names a tropical cyclonedamage26 records, 1998 to 2025 (7 zone-level)Flash Flood, 1998-08-28, $50,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars) (NOAA type Flash Flood; narrative names Hurricane Danielle)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (7) apply countywide.NOAA filed these records under the type shown, and each also counts under that type's hazard; the record's event or episode narrative names the storm, checked against NOAA's HURDAT2 storm list by name and dates. Some records name the storm only as context (for example a distant storm that fed moisture), so read the narrative before attributing a record to the storm.
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)525 records, 1997 to 2026 (83 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2001-11-07, $9,000,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (2001 dollars); NWS zone PRZ001 (covers 8 county areas)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (83) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)31 records, 2003 to 2026 (26 zone-level)Debris Flow, 2007-12-12, $20,000 property; $0 crops (2007 dollars), 1 direct injury (reported for the zone); NWS zone PRZ001 (covers 8 county areas)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (26) apply countywide.
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)6 records, 2001 to 2025 (3 zone-level)Lightning, 2003-10-15, $300,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars); NWS zone PRZ001 (covers 8 county areas)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (3) apply countywide.Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)9 records, 1998 to 2025 (9 zone-level)25 kt (29 mph) to 50 kt (58 mph) (median 40 kt (46 mph)); 7 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, Strong Wind, 2005-04-22; same speed and measurement basis also recorded the same day; NWS zone PRZ001 (covers 8 county areas)Strong Wind, 2024-08-14, $15,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars; the zone covers 8 county areas)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)30 records, 1995 to 2025 (7 zone-level)26 kt (30 mph) to 42 kt (48 mph) (median 35 kt (40 mph)); 18 with a recorded value42 kt (48 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2015-06-22Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-02-06, $105,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (7) apply countywide.
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)2 records, 1995 to 2000F/EF0; 2 with a recorded valueF0 tornado, 2000-02-23, 0.2 mi within this county, 10 yd wide, damage not reported; same rating, casualties and property damage also recorded on 1995-05-01No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0
Volcanic Ash, Volcanic AshfallVolcanic Explosivity Index (local data)5 records, 2001 to 2008 (5 zone-level)Volcanic Ash, 2001-07-29, $300,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars); NWS zone PRZ001 (covers 8 county areas)Countywide (zone-level records).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)0

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow, lightning, tsunami and volcanic ash, volcanic ashfall.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 24 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Storm Events records since the plan: not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-08-132024-08-13EM-3610-PREmergencyTropical Storm ErnestoHurricane; Inland Flooding; Landslideno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2022-09-212022-09-17DR-4671-PRMajor disasterHurricane FionaHurricane$14,309,968.89within last 5 years
2022-09-182022-09-17EM-3583-PREmergencyTropical Storm FionaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4671
2020-08-222020-08-21EM-3537-PREmergencyTropical Storm LauraHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-07-292020-07-27EM-3532-PREmergencyPotential Tropical Cyclone NineHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-272020-01-20DR-4493-PRMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$3,765,181.54
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3452-PREmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4493
2020-01-072019-12-28EM-3426-PREmergencyEarthquakesEarthquakeno Public Assistance recorded
2019-08-272019-08-26EM-3417-PREmergencyTropical Storm DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2017-09-202017-09-17DR-4339-PRMajor disasterHurricane MariaHurricane$783,793,536.57
2017-09-182017-09-17EM-3391-PREmergencyHurricane MariaHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4339
2017-09-102017-09-05DR-4336-PRMajor disasterHurricane IrmaHurricane$2,952,395.13
2011-08-272011-08-21DR-4017-PRMajor disasterHurricane IreneHurricane$319,057.84
2011-08-222011-08-21EM-3326-PREmergencyHurricane IreneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4017
2009-10-242009-10-23EM-3306-PREmergencyExplosions and FireNon-natural, not counted$82,187.19
2004-09-172004-09-14DR-1552-PRMajor disasterTropical Storm Jeanne and Resulting Landslides and MudslidesHurricane; Landslide$771,637.10
1999-11-171999-11-17EM-3151-PREmergencyHurricane LennyHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1998-09-241998-09-20DR-1247-PRMajor disasterHurricane Georges - 18 Sep 98Hurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1996-11-211996-11-21EM-3124-PREmergencyGas Leak ExplosionNon-natural, not countednot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1996-09-111996-09-09DR-1136-PRMajor disasterHurricane HortenseHurricanenot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1989-09-211989-09-17DR-842-PRMajor disasterHurricane HugoHurricanenot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1979-09-021979-09-02DR-597-PRMajor disasterHurricane DavidHurricanenot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1975-09-191975-09-19DR-483-PRMajor disasterTropical Storm ElioiseInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Hurricanenot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)
1970-10-121970-10-12DR-296-PRMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingnot available: FEMA's Public Assistance data start in 1998 (declarations from 1998-08-26 on)

Mapped hazard: "X (primary); also designated: Y" means FEMA's incident type maps to X and its designated incident codes or title add Y; a list separated by semicolons, such as "Inland Flooding; Tornado", has no primary hazard, because the incident type (Severe Storm or Coastal Storm) maps to no single hazard.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-09-211998-09-20EM-3130-PREmergencyHurricane Georges (Direct Federal Assist First 72 Hrs)Hurricane
1964-05-261964-05-26DR-170-PRMajor disasterExtreme Drought ConditionsDrought
1956-08-181956-08-18DR-62-PRMajor disasterHurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state (where FEMA also gives the declaration a row for the county, it is shown once, in the county table) and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 5 rows, $2,243,945.22

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4473-PR2020-01-16EarthquakesReligiosas del Sagrado Corazon$44,678.03
DR-4473-PR2020-01-16EarthquakesInter American University of PR$422,107.02
DR-4473-PR2020-01-16EarthquakesIglesia Metodista de Puerto Rico$524,952.77
DR-4473-PR2020-01-16EarthquakesAsociacion Frailes Capuchinos, Inc.$1,252,207.40
EM-3384-PR2017-09-05Hurricane IrmaSan Juan (Municipio)$0.00

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding1206001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave100001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought100001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake00010Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail100001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave27027001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane381161501996 to 2026-06-30Includes 5 Flash Flood, 12 Flood, 4 Heavy Rain, 1 Strong Wind and 4 Thunderstorm Wind records whose NOAA event or episode narrative names a tropical cyclone (NOAA's type kept; each also counts under that type's hazard, except Heavy Rain, which is no NRI hazard).
Inland Flooding52521188301996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide3115201996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning603001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind39115001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 High Wind and 8 Strong Wind records.
Tornado200001950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Volcanic Activity500001996 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-04-28Flash Flood$25,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)1, 05.68 miles SSW of SAN JUAN to 5.33 miles SSW of SAN JUANwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-08-14Strong Wind; narrative names Ernesto40 kt (46 mph) estimated gust$15,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone PRZ001 (SAN JUAN AND VICINITY), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2024-02-06Thunderstorm Wind35 kt (40 mph) estimated gust$105,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)0, 02 miles NW of SAN JUANwithin last 5 yearsB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
2023-08-01Flash Flood$3,500 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)0, 23.76 miles NW of SAN JUAN to 3.54 miles NW of SAN JUANwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2023-04-04Coastal Flood$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)1, 0NWS zone PRZ001 (SAN JUAN AND VICINITY), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2015-06-22Thunderstorm Wind42 kt (48 mph) measured gust$100 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)0, 04.73 miles NE of SAN JUAN to 4.64 miles NE of SAN JUANB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2007-12-12Debris Flow$20,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2007 dollars)0, 1NWS zone PRZ001 (SAN JUAN AND VICINITY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Debris Flow
2005-04-22Strong Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$1,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2005 dollars)0, 0NWS zone PRZ001 (SAN JUAN AND VICINITY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2003-10-15Lightning$300,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2003 dollars)0, 0NWS zone PRZ001 (SAN JUAN AND VICINITY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2001-11-07Flash Flood$9,000,000 property; $1,000,000 crops (zone total, 2001 dollars)0, 0NWS zone PRZ001 (SAN JUAN AND VICINITY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2000-02-23TornadoF0, 0.2 mi within this county, 10 yd widedamage not reported0, 0CAGUASB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1999-02-01Coastal Flood$15,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1999 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area SAN JUAN (legacy zone code PRZ127), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tide
1998-09-21Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')$243,000,000 property; $43,000,000 crops (zone total, 1998 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area SAN JUAN (legacy zone code PRZ127), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
1998-08-28Flash Flood; narrative names Hurricane Danielle$50,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 0NORTH PORTIONB1-c worst recorded: Wind, rain, flood or surge records whose NOAA event or episode narrative names a tropical cyclone

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (688 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Also counted as Hurricane: the record's event or episode narrative names the storm. Some records name the storm only as context (for example a distant storm that fed moisture), so read the narrative before attributing a record to the storm.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding0.212events per year at a location (modeled)about 0.21 per year at a given location in the countyLikelyStorm Events records in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Cold Wave0event-days per yearnone modeledPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)02005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNRI models no cold wave event-days here (2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12, 19 years); Storm Events has a record in 1 of 30 years. The descriptor comes from Storm Events, which records events NRI's definition leaves out.
Drought1.68event-days per yearabout 1.68 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)842000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.0431annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 4.31%PossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled), at a location in the countynot shownmodeledsee B1-fStorm Events does not record earthquakes.
Hail0.0266events per yearabout 1 in 38 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1.1 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0.102event-days per yearabout 0.102 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)1.272005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.173events per yearabout 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)421851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Inland Flooding5.64event-days per yearabout 5.64 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 29 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (96.7%)1581996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.77events per year (modeled)about 0.77 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning56.1days per year with a strikeabout 56.1 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.00498events per yearabout 1 in 201 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)11986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.00324events per yearabout 1 in 309 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunami0.0557annual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)chance at the county's most exposed location in a year: 5.57%PossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled), at the county's most exposed locationnot shownmodeledsee B1-fNo Storm Events record, 1996 to 2025.
Volcanic Activity0.0101annual probabilityabout 1 in 99 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Wildfireannual probability at a locationStorm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather0event-days per yearnone modeledStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events winter weather record, 1996 to 2025

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record; otherwise (always for earthquake) the scale is applied to the chance at a location, and the county as a whole is at least as likely. The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 20250300
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202522300.733
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Cold Wave0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Drought0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Earthquake0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Hail0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Heat Wave0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Hurricane0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Inland Flooding0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Landslide0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Lightning0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Strong Wind0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Tornado0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Tsunami0 of 137Not Applicable 108, Insufficient Data 29
Volcanic Activity0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Wildfire0 of 137Insufficient Data 137
Winter Weather0 of 137Insufficient Data 137

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
San Juan MunicipioCountyApproved, expires 2031-09-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$204,896,039.710 total; Storm Events data end 2026-06-30, before this plan's approvalPuerto Rico commonwealth community (720000): this row counts only its properties in this municipio, as the county table does. Includes $1,640,009.37 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4493-PR, EM-3306-PR).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not matched to a jurisdiction row here (for example county offices and boards filed under their own names, such as a sheriff's office or a conservation board, and state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

FEMA files applicants under varying names, so these rows may not include every payment to a jurisdiction. The county totals in B1-d count every applicant FEMA files under this county, whatever the name.

NRI v1.20 rates no hazard in any census tract of this county (every tract reads Insufficient Data or Not Applicable), so the hazards-by-jurisdiction table is not built.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-09-18county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$13,621,026,414n/a59,059$637,076n/a$276,2370.00468%
Cold Wave$0$00$0$0$0building exposure is 0 in NRI
Droughtn/a$0n/an/a$0n/aagriculture exposure is 0 in NRI
Earthquake$133,122,491,642n/a342,259$65,974,516n/a$66,109,3510.0496%
Hail$74,294,584,455$0341,981$898$0$4,805under 0.0001%
Heat Wave$72,530,064,915$0336,157$0$0$00%
Hurricane$74,292,207,452$0341,964$184,486,172$0$8,842,2160.248%
Inland Flooding$74,044,142,987$045,261$34,088,280$0$120,984n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$2,527,527,809n/a16,861$4,941,002n/a$7,9600.195%
Lightning$74,294,584,455n/a341,981$130,608n/a$3,252,2710.000176%
Strong Wind$74,294,584,455$0341,981$1,526$0$9,376under 0.0001%
Tornado$74,294,584,455$0341,981$152,257$0$122,0760.000205%
Tsunami$10,912,297,261n/a18,813$705,724n/a$64,648,6970.00647%
Volcanic Activity$74,294,584,455n/a341,981$27n/a$8,186under 0.0001%
Wildfiren/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Winter Weather$0$00$0$0$0building exposure is 0 in NRI

Totals since 2026-09-18: Storm Events not yet covered: Storm Events data run through 2026-06-30, before the approval date, so there is no period to count yet; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population341,981
Building value (total, not at risk)$74,294,584,455
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$0
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Insufficient Data
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$291,118,087
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$143,402,160
Social vulnerability ratingData Unavailable
Community resilience ratingData Unavailable
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file541651,5721581,574038

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
San Juan Municipio7200000000000Puerto Rico commonwealth community (720000): this row counts only its properties in this municipio, as the county table does.

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)
  9. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2020 Block Assignment Files (county subdivision and place), version baf2020, pulled 2026-10-02, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/baf2020/, https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/01-Redistricting_File--PL_94-171/
  10. U.S. Census Bureau, Census county adjacency file, 2024 vintage, version 2024, pulled 2026-10-03, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/county_adjacency/county_adjacency2024.txt
  11. NOAA National Hurricane Center, NHC HURDAT2 best-track data (Atlantic 1851 to 2025; Northeast and North Central Pacific 1949 to 2025), version 2025-092326, pulled 2026-10-03, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2025-092926.txt

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). San Juan Municipio, PR: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 72127). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/pr/72127/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: contact@hazardplain.org