Pike County, PA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No county-level plan row in FEMA data.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($17,935,506 a year), Cold Wave ($2,871,557) and Hurricane ($1,213,814).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Terms used

EAL:: expected annual loss: FEMA's modeled average yearly loss from a hazard.
NRI:: FEMA's National Risk Index (version 1.20, December 2025).
NFIP:: National Flood Insurance Program.
RL, SRL:: repetitive loss and severe repetitive loss: flood-insured properties with repeated claims (definitions in B2-c).
FMA, HMGP:: Flood Mitigation Assistance and Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, FEMA mitigation grants.
PA:: FEMA Public Assistance: disaster aid to governments and some nonprofits.
Zone-level:: NOAA logged the event for a National Weather Service forecast zone, which may include parts of neighboring counties.
County-coded:: NOAA logged the event to this county.
FIPS:: the federal code for a place; 42103 is this area.
D0 to D4:: U.S. Drought Monitor categories, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4).
F/EF, EFU:: Fujita and Enhanced Fujita tornado ratings; EFU is an unrated tornado.
kt, CONUS:: knots (1 kt is about 1.15 mph); the contiguous United States.
CFR:: Code of Federal Regulations.
A4-a, E1-a:: other items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool (sources, and changes since the last plan).
Dollars:: nominal (as reported, labeled with the year), not adjusted for inflation.

Plan clock

No county-level plan row in FEMA data

What changed since your last plan

Not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 13 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

Jurisdiction	Type	Status	Plan	Approved	Expires	Days to expirynegative = days since expiry	Update underway
Matamoras borough	Organized Borough	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Milford borough	Organized Borough	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Blooming Grove township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Delaware township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Dingman township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Greene township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Lackawaxen township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Lehman township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Milford township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Palmyra township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Porter township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Shohola township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress
Westfall township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	Pike County Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108524)	2022-09-28	2027-09-27	362	FEMA tracker shows a plan in progress

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
levee failure
flash flood as its own subtype
ice jams
debris flows
erosion (riverine and coastal)
land subsidence and sinkholes
expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EAL	Hazard	NRI risk rating	EAL rating	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL total (see note)modeled dollars per year	Storm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30count	Storm Events coverage note
1	Inland Flooding	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	$17,924,592	$867	$10,047	$17,935,506	27
2	Cold Wave	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	$913	$318	$2,870,326	$2,871,557	8	Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3	Hurricane	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$1,178,468	$1,890	$33,456	$1,213,814	0	Declared 4 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
4	Strong Wind	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	$618,052	$10	$139,301	$757,362	147	Includes 17 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5	Tornado	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$231,037	$7	$199,934	$430,979	8
6	Earthquake	Very Low	Relatively Low	$320,736	n/a	$47,217	$367,953		Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
7	Lightning	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$15,836	n/a	$264,090	$279,925	2
8	Heat Wave	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	under $1	$51	$222,058	$222,109	4
9	Wildfire	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$178,556	under $1	$15,996	$194,552	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
10	Winter Weather	Relatively Moderate	Relatively Moderate	$33,652	$1	$66,425	$100,077	80
11	Ice Storm	Relatively Low	Relatively Low	$29,141	n/a	$17,794	$46,935	6
12	Hail	Very Low	Very Low	$14,600	$1,122	$17,600	$33,322	56
13	Landslide	Relatively Low	Very Low	$1,832	n/a	$2,727	$4,560	0	Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
14	Drought	Very Low	Very Low	n/a	$641	n/a	$641	5
15	Avalanche	Very Low	Very Low	under $1	n/a	$299	$299	0	No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

Hazard	Highest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanche	tract 9508.03 (Very Low, 31.2); tract 9507.02 (Very Low, 30.0); tract 9502.04 (Very Low, 29.3)
Earthquake	tract 9507.02 (Relatively Low, 52.3); tract 9509.02 (Relatively Low, 46.7); tract 9506.01 (Relatively Low, 45.5)
Hurricane	tract 9502.04 (Relatively Low, 77.1); tract 9507.02 (Relatively Low, 76.0); tract 9506.06 (Relatively Low, 75.0)
Landslide	tract 9501.02 (Relatively Low, 89.5); tract 9506.06 (Relatively Low, 89.0); tract 9502.04 (Relatively Low, 88.4)
Tornado	tract 9508.06 (Relatively Low, 38.7); tract 9506.06 (Relatively Low, 36.9); tract 9507.02 (Relatively Low, 36.8)
Wildfire	tract 9507.01 (Relatively Moderate, 91.0); tract 9506.06 (Relatively Moderate, 90.1); tract 9507.02 (Relatively Low, 88.0)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9508.03 is Census Tract 9508.03). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

Hazard	Scale	Recordscount and years	Observed range	Worst recorded event	Most damaging (when different)	How it applies to jurisdictions	Note
Avalanche	none (count and damage only)	0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill	wind chill	7 records, 1996 to 2026 (7 zone-level)	1 day to 2 days (median 1 day); 7 with a recorded value	2 consecutive days, 2004-01-15 to 2004-01-16, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)	crop damage	1 record, 2026 (1 zone-level)		Frost/Freeze, 2026-04-19, $7,500,000 crop damage (2026 dollars); NWS zone PAZ048		Countywide (zone-level records).
Drought	U.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)	5 records, 1997 to 2024 (5 zone-level)	30 days to 36 days (median 31 days); 4 with a recorded value	36 days (about 1.2 months), 2024-11-12 to 2024-12-17, a run of 2 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-level	Drought, 1997-08-01, property not reported; $200,000 crops (zone total, 1997 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).	Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
Earthquake	Modified Mercalli (local data)	0					Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	hail size (inches)	61 records, 1990 to 2023	0.75 in to 1.75 in (median 0.88 in); 61 with a recorded value	1.75 in hail, 2014-08-21; same size also recorded on 1994-09-27, 2014-08-21		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Milford borough (14 records), Milford township (14 records), Blooming Grove township (3 records), Lackawaxen township (1 record), Matamoras borough (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heat	heat index (in event narratives)	4 records, 2001 to 2012 (4 zone-level)	3 days to 10 days (median 6.5 days); 2 with a recorded value	10 consecutive days, 2001-08-01 to 2001-08-10, zone-level		Countywide (zone-level records).	Heat records from November to March (unseasonable warmth, not a heat wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression	Saffir-Simpson	0					Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice Storm	Sperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)	6 records, 1998 to 2001 (6 zone-level)		No damage reported in 6 records.		Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood	damage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)	27 records, 1996 to 2025 (8 zone-level)		Flash Flood, 1996-01-19, $23,000,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Milford borough (4 records), Milford township (4 records), Shohola township (3 records), Lackawaxen township (1 record). Zone-level records (8) apply countywide.	Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flow	none (count and damage only)	0
Lightning	annualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)	2 records, 2000 to 2004		Lightning, 2004-06-01, $20,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Milford borough (2 records), Milford township (2 records).	Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)	wind speed (kt and mph)	19 records, 1996 to 2019 (19 zone-level)	45 kt (52 mph) to 65 kt (75 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 11 with a recorded value	65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2012-10-29; NWS zone PAZ048	High Wind, 1999-09-16, $630,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1999 dollars)	Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Wind	wind speed (kt and mph)	135 records, 1989 to 2026	50 kt (58 mph) to 83 kt (96 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 113 with a recorded value	83 kt (96 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2021-06-09; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2007-06-21		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Milford borough (28 records), Milford township (28 records), Lackawaxen township (18 records), Shohola township (8 records), Blooming Grove township (3 records).
Tornado	Enhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)	8 records, 1998 to 2010	F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF1); 8 with a recorded value	F3 tornado, 1998-05-31, 20 mi within this county, 200 yd wide, $1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars), 2 direct injuries		Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Blooming Grove township (3 records), Lackawaxen township (1 record).	Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfire	acres burned (local data)	0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet	none in data (snowfall: local data)	80 records, 1996 to 2026 (80 zone-level)		Blizzard, 2018-03-02, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars); NWS zone PAZ048		Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 18 declarations covering 12 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard	County Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollars	Notes
2020-03-30	2020-01-20	DR-4506-PA	Major disaster	COVID-19 Pandemic	Non-natural, not counted	$300,057.67
2020-03-13	2020-01-20	EM-3441-PA	Emergency	COVID-19	Non-natural, not counted	no Public Assistance recorded	same incident as DR-4506
2013-01-10	2012-10-26	DR-4099-PA	Major disaster	Hurricane Sandy	Hurricane	$134,607.63
2012-10-29	2012-10-26	EM-3356-PA	Emergency	Hurricane Sandy	Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded	same incident as DR-4099
2011-09-03	2011-08-26	DR-4025-PA	Major disaster	Hurricane Irene	Hurricane	$250,730.68
2011-08-29	2011-08-26	EM-3339-PA	Emergency	Hurricane Irene	Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded	same incident as DR-4025
2006-06-30	2006-06-23	DR-1649-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides	Inland Flooding; Landslide	$105,951.26
2005-09-10	2005-08-29	EM-3235-PA	Emergency	Hurricane Katrina	Hurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not counted	no Public Assistance recorded
2005-04-14	2005-04-02	DR-1587-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	$311,774.11
2004-09-19	2004-09-17	DR-1557-PA	Major disaster	Tropical Depression Ivan	Hurricane	$338,735.43
2004-09-19	2004-09-08	DR-1555-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances	Hurricane; Inland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not counted	PA not declared for this county
1998-06-08	1998-05-31	DR-1219-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes,and Flooding	Inland Flooding; Tornado	PA not declared for this county
1996-01-21	1996-01-19	DR-1093-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms and Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-13	1996-01-06	DR-1085-PA	Major disaster	Blizzard of 96	Winter Weather	no Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-16	1993-03-13	EM-3105-PA	Emergency	Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm	Winter Weather	no Public Assistance recorded
1972-06-23	1972-06-23	DR-340-PA	Major disaster	Tropical Storm Agnes	Inland Flooding (primary); also designated: Hurricane	no Public Assistance recorded
1969-08-19	1969-08-19	DR-273-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms & Flooding	Inland Flooding	no Public Assistance recorded
1965-08-18	1965-08-18	DR-206-PA	Major disaster	Water Shortage	Drought	no Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

Declared	Incident began	FEMA number	Type	Title	Mapped hazard
2003-08-23	2003-07-21	DR-1485-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding	Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-01-23	1959-01-23	DR-89-PA	Major disaster	Floods	Inland Flooding
1956-08-09	1956-08-09	DR-61-PA	Major disaster	Storm	Hazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1956-05-21	1956-05-21	DR-58-PA	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Hazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1956-03-15	1956-03-15	DR-51-PA	Major disaster	Flood	Inland Flooding
1955-08-20	1955-08-20	DR-40-PA	Major disaster	Floods & Rains	Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

Hazard	Storm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)	Last 5 yearsrecords	Declared incidents, all yearsseparate disasters	Period	Statement
Avalanche	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave	8	2	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought	5	2	1	1996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake	0	0	0		Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail	61	2	0	1955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave	4	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane	0	0	4	1996 to 2026-06-30	No Storm Events records of this type; 4 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Ice Storm	6	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding	27	3	6	1996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide	0	0	1	1996 to 2026-06-30	No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning	2	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind	154	35	0	1955 to 2026-06-30	Includes 17 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado	8	0	1	1950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire	0	0	0	1996 to 2026-06-30	No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather	80	14	2	1996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

Date	Event type	Magnitude or extent	Damagenominal dollars	Deaths, injuriesdirect only	Location	Flags	Why listed
2026-04-19	Frost/Freeze		$0 property; $7,500,000 crops (zone total, 2026 dollars) (as recorded; larger than this county's annual agriculture value in the National Risk Index (the county or state extension service keeps crop loss records))	0, 0	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level	within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2024-11-12	Drought		damage not reported	0, 0	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level	within last 5 years	B1-c worst recorded: Drought
2021-06-09	Thunderstorm Wind	83 kt (96 mph) estimated gust	$150,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)	0, 0	ROWLAND		B1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2018-03-02	Blizzard		$400,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2018 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2014-08-21	Hail	1.75 in	$5,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)	0, 0	GREELEY		B1-c worst recorded: Hail
2012-10-29	High Wind	65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust	$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2004-06-01	Lightning		$20,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)	0, 0	MILFORD		B1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2004-01-15	Cold/Wind Chill		$10,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2004 dollars)	0, 0	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2001-08-01	Heat		damage not reported	0, 0	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level		B1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1998-05-31	Tornado	F3, 20 mi within this county, 200 yd wide	$1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)	0, 2	PECKS POND to DINGMANS FERRY		deaths or injuries recorded
1997-03-06	High Wind	speed not recorded	damage not reported	0, 1	NWS zone PAZ048 (PIKE), zone-level		deaths or injuries recorded
1996-01-19	Flash Flood		$23,000,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)	0, 0	COUNTYWIDE		B1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (355 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

Hazard	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per row	Unit	In plain terms	Descriptor	Descriptor basis	NRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)	NRI period	Location	Note
Avalanche	0.01	events per year	about 1 in 100 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	0	1994 to 2023 (30 years)	see B1-f	0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave	3	event-days per year	about 3 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)	57	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Drought	0.105	event-days per year	about 0.105 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)	49	2000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)	countywide
Earthquake	0.0011	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.11%			not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail	2.39	events per year	about 2.39 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	90.5 (modeled)	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Heat Wave	1.9	event-days per year	about 1.9 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)	30	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide
Hurricane	0.05	events per year	about 1 in 20 years	Possible	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	16	1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)	see B1-f	NRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm	0.635	event-days per year	about 0.635 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)	43	1946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)	countywide
Inland Flooding	0.607	event-days per year	about 0.607 days per year	Likely	Storm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)	17	1996 to 2023 (28 years)	see B1-f
Landslide	0.562	events per year (modeled)	about 0.56 per year	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f
Lightning	30.4	days per year with a strike	about 30.4 days per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)	countywide
Strong Wind	4.14	events per year	about 4.14 per year	Highly likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	157	1986 to 2023 (38 years)	countywide
Tornado	0.187	events per year	about 1 in 5 years	Likely	FEMA annualized frequency (modeled)	not shown	1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)	see B1-f
Wildfire	0.000536	annual probability at a location	chance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0536%		Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)	not shown	modeled	see B1-f	No descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather	16	event-days per year	about 16 days per year	Highly likely	Storm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)	304	2005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)	countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

Unit	Descriptor	Definition
events per year	Highly likely	1 or more per year
events per year	Likely	about once in 1 to 10 years
events per year	Possible	about once in 10 to 100 years
events per year	Unlikely	less than once in 100 years
annual probability	Likely	10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probability	Possible	1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probability	Unlikely	under 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)	Highly likely	event-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)	Likely	event-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)	Possible	event-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-days	Highly likely	cloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

Hazard	Band	Years	Eventscounty-coded records	Years in period	Events per yearevents / years
Hail	1.00-1.99 in	1996 to 2025	25	30	0.833
Hail	2.00 in+	1996 to 2025	0	30	0
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	50-64 kt	1996 to 2025	101	30	3.37
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	65 kt+	1996 to 2025	4	30	0.133
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)	unmeasured or below 50 kt	1996 to 2025	16	30	0.533
Tornado	EF0-1	1996 to 2025	5	30	0.167
Tornado	EF2-3	1996 to 2025	3	30	0.1
Tornado	EF4-5	1996 to 2025	0	30	0
Tornado	unrated (EFU)	1996 to 2025	0	30	0

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

Hazard	Tractsrated of all	NRI risk score, 0 to 100			Tracts by rating
Hazard	Tractsrated of all	Min	Median	Max	Tracts by rating
Avalanche	8 of 25	25.0	28.3	31.2	Very Low 8, Not Applicable 17
Cold Wave	25 of 25	47.0	71.8	85.3	Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 17, Relatively Low 1
Drought	1 of 25	77.7	77.7	77.7	Very Low 1, No Rating 24
Earthquake	25 of 25	25.5	35.2	52.3	Relatively Low 6, Very Low 19
Hail	25 of 25	16.0	26.5	32.6	Very Low 25
Heat Wave	25 of 25	4.4	12.1	25.4	Relatively Low 7, Very Low 18
Hurricane	25 of 25	58.8	69.1	77.1	Relatively Low 25
Ice Storm	25 of 25	9.3	25.9	54.0	Relatively Low 5, Very Low 20
Inland Flooding	25 of 25	10.4	59.8	96.1	Very High 2, Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 9, Very Low 1
Landslide	25 of 25	24.9	83.6	89.5	Relatively Low 17, Very Low 8
Lightning	25 of 25	27.1	50.6	70.8	Relatively Moderate 13, Relatively Low 12
Strong Wind	25 of 25	40.1	69.6	82.3	Relatively Moderate 19, Relatively Low 6
Tornado	25 of 25	21.0	30.8	38.7	Relatively Low 16, Very Low 9
Wildfire	24 of 25	19.6	77.5	91.0	Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 13, Very Low 9, No Rating 1
Winter Weather	25 of 25	45.1	63.2	75.3	Relatively Moderate 22, Relatively Low 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

Jurisdiction	Type	Plan status	Repetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definition	Public Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollars	Event records naming this placeall years; since its plan
Matamoras borough	Organized Borough	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 4	$148,338.06	1 total; 0 since its plan
Milford borough	Organized Borough	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	48 total; 6 since its plan
Blooming Grove township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$20,510.33	9 total; 1 since its plan
Delaware township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$69,916.07	0 total; 0 since its plan
Dingman township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2	$55,191.93	0 total; 0 since its plan
Greene township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$48,915.17	0 total; 0 since its plan
Lackawaxen township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1	$36,729.23	21 total; 1 since its plan
Lehman township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2	$236,127.39	0 total; 0 since its plan
Milford township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	no Public Assistance recorded	48 total; 6 since its plan
Palmyra township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$101,895.72	0 total; 0 since its plan
Porter township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2	$24,011.27	0 total; 0 since its plan
Shohola township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0	$76,184.63	11 total; 5 since its plan
Westfall township	Township	Approved, expires 2027-09-27	FMA RL 3, SRL 2; any 20	$113,598.82	0 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

Hazard	Building exposuremodeled dollars	Agriculture exposuremodeled dollars	Population exposedpeople	EAL buildingsmodeled dollars per year	EAL agriculturemodeled dollars per year	Cost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damage	EAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where noted	Note
Avalanche	$1,152,232	n/a	under 1	under $1	n/a	$299	under 0.0001%
Cold Wave	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	$913	$318	$2,870,326	under 0.0001%
Drought	n/a	$2,007	n/a	n/a	$641	n/a	31.9% (agriculture)	NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake	$29,284,248,274	n/a	58,535	$320,736	n/a	$47,217	0.0011%
Hail	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	$14,600	$1,122	$17,600	under 0.0001%
Heat Wave	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	under $1	$51	$222,058	under 0.0001%
Hurricane	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	$1,178,468	$1,890	$33,456	0.00625%
Ice Storm	$18,854,413,849	n/a	58,432	$29,141	n/a	$17,794	0.000155%
Inland Flooding	$18,828,901,724	$244,561	897	$17,924,592	$867	$10,047	n/a (see note)	NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide	$1,076,654,581	n/a	3,206	$1,832	n/a	$2,727	0.00017%
Lightning	$18,854,413,849	n/a	58,432	$15,836	n/a	$264,090	under 0.0001%
Strong Wind	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	$618,052	$10	$139,301	0.00328%
Tornado	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	$231,037	$7	$199,934	0.00123%
Wildfire	$3,128,321,937	$145,603	14,905	$178,556	under $1	$15,996	0.00571%
Winter Weather	$18,854,413,849	$1,148,611	58,432	$33,652	$1	$66,425	0.000178%

Totals since the plan: not available. No county-level plan row in FEMA data, so there is no approval date to count from.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

Measure	Value
Population	58,432
Building value (total, not at risk)	$18,854,413,849
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)	$1,148,611
NRI risk rating (all hazards)	Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards	$20,552,323
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)	$3,907,270
Social vulnerability rating	Relatively Moderate
Community resilience rating	Very Low
NRI version	December 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

Definition	Properties	Severe repetitive loss	Properties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	3	Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)	2
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	30	Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition	1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

Scope	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
County total	3	2	30	1	31	1	7
of which: Matamoras borough	0	0	4	0	4	0	1
of which: Dingman township	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
of which: Lackawaxen township	0	0	1	0	1	0	0
of which: Lehman township	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
of which: Westfall township	3	2	19	1	20	1	6
of which: Porter township	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file	0	0	1	0	1	0	0

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

Jurisdiction	NFIP community ID	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
Matamoras borough	420758	0	0	4	0	4	0	1
Milford borough	420759	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Blooming Grove township	421962	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Delaware township	421963	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Dingman township	421964	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
Greene township	421965	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Lackawaxen township	421966	0	0	1	0	1	0	0
Lehman township	421967	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
Milford township	422642	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Palmyra township	421968	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Porter township	422500	0	0	2	0	2	0	0
Shohola township	421969	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Westfall township	421970	3	2	19	1	20	1	6

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy group	RL, FMAproperties	SRL, FMAproperties	RL, NFIPproperties	SRL, NFIPproperties	Any categoryproperties	Mitigatedproperties	Currently insuredproperties
single-family residential	2	2	25	1	26	1	5
2 to 4 unit residential	0	0	1	0	1	0	1
other residential	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
non-residential	1	0	4	0	4	0	1
not reported	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 28 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Pike County, PA: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 42103). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/pa/42103/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]