Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Jackson County, OR

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
41029
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-02-12. Plan: Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425), approved 2024-02-13.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-02-13: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 47 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($54,123,519 a year), Earthquake ($35,081,455) and Wildfire ($25,011,497).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-02-12
Plan:
Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)
Approved:
2024-02-13
Days to expiry:
866

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-02-13)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): FM-5590-OR (Upper Applegate Road Fire), FM-5670-OR (Fielder Mountain Fire)
Storm Events records since approval:
47 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 13
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 15 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Jackson CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Ashland cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Butte Falls townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Central Point cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Eagle Point cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Gold Hill cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Jacksonville cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Medford cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-22Medford City Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 108419)2022-09-232027-09-22357
Phoenix cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Rogue River cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Shady Cove cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Talent cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Jackson County Fire District #3Fire/EMS DistrictApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Jackson County Fire District #5Fire/EMS DistrictApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866
Medford Water CommissionWater/Sewer AuthorityApproved, expires 2029-02-12Jackson County Multi-jurisdictional Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 109425)2024-02-132029-02-12866

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$53,795,490$32,670$295,358$54,123,51924
2EarthquakeRelatively ModerateRelatively High$21,680,737n/a$13,400,718$35,081,455Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
3WildfireRelatively HighRelatively High$23,549,689$1,438$1,460,370$25,011,497101
4Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,714$20,517$5,897,959$5,920,19014
5Winter WeatherVery HighRelatively High$2,141under $1$902,748$904,888121
6LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$17,140n/a$318,694$335,8346
7Strong WindRelatively LowRelatively Low$71,122$251$193,288$264,661121Includes 90 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$156,663$19,813$25,384$201,86049
9Cold WaveVery LowVery Low$16$266$59,428$59,710145Includes 119 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
10LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$11,750n/a$24,814$36,5640Declared 2 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
11TornadoVery LowVery Low$18,819$12$11,455$30,2860No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12Ice StormVery LowVery Low$127n/a$15,212$15,3380No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$1,738n/a$1,7380Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
14Volcanic ActivityVery LowVery Low$78n/a$212$2900No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
15AvalancheVery LowVery Low$2n/a$124$1262
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3228-OR names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and volcanic activity records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding and tsunami. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 26 (Very Low, 22.5); tract 29.01 (Very Low, 20.8); tract 27.02 (Very Low, 20.8)
Earthquaketract 1 (Very High, 99.7); tract 13.01 (Relatively High, 96.5); tract 5.02 (Relatively High, 95.9)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 30.02 (Relatively Moderate, 97.9); tract 25 (Relatively Moderate, 97.5); tract 23 (Relatively Moderate, 97.0)
Tornadotract 13.01 (Very Low, 3.5); tract 6.04 (Very Low, 3.2); tract 1 (Very Low, 3.0)
Volcanic Activitytract 26 (Relatively Low, 96.4); tract 22 (Very Low, 85.8); tract 18.01 (Very Low, 84.9)
Wildfiretract 30.02 (Very High, 99.9); tract 29.02 (Very High, 99.9); tract 26 (Very High, 99.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 26 is Census Tract 26). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)2 records, 2008 to 2009 (2 zone-level)No damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill26 records, 1998 to 2018 (26 zone-level)1 day to 7 days (median 2 days); 18 with a recorded value7 consecutive days, 2009-12-05 to 2009-12-11, 1 direct death, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Cold/Wind Chill records from May to September (a frost night, not a cold wave) are counted but not used for the longest run.
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage119 records, 2003 to 2026 (119 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 119 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)63 records, 1960 to 20210.75 in to 1.75 in (median 1 in); 63 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2017-05-04; same size also recorded on 1964-07-13, 1969-06-04, 1995-07-08, 1995-07-25, 2009-08-01, 2017-05-04Hail, 1997-09-02, property not reported; $2,100,000 crops (1997 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Medford city (10 records), Ashland city (9 records), Talent city (2 records), Butte Falls town (1 record), Rogue River city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)14 records, 2017 to 2024 (14 zone-level)2 days to 10 days (median 4 days); 13 with a recorded value10 consecutive days, 2024-07-04 to 2024-07-13, 2 direct deaths, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)0
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)24 records, 1996 to 2025 (7 zone-level)Flood, 1997-01-01, $60,400,000 property; $10,500,000 crops (1997 dollars); Storm Events area ROGUE BASIN (legacy zone code ORZ008)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ashland city (4 records), Butte Falls town (1 record), Jacksonville city (1 record), Rogue River city (1 record), Shady Cove city (1 record). Zone-level records (7) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)6 records, 2002 to 2026Lightning, 2009-05-31, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars), 1 direct injuryEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ashland city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)91 records, 1997 to 2024 (91 zone-level)26 kt (30 mph) to 108 kt (124 mph) (median 73 kt (84 mph)); 85 with a recorded value108 kt (124 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2017-01-21; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2015-02-05; NWS zone ORZ028High Wind, 2008-01-03, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Speeds under 20 kt (likely entry errors) are left out of the observed range.
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)44 records, 1958 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 80 kt (92 mph) (median 52.5 kt (60 mph)); 30 with a recorded value80 kt (92 mph) estimated, Thunderstorm Wind, 2002-07-13Thunderstorm Wind, 2024-07-16, $160,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Medford city (6 records), Ashland city (2 records), Jacksonville city (2 records), Phoenix city (2 records), Shady Cove city (2 records), Gold Hill city (1 record), Rogue River city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)0Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Volcanic Ash, Volcanic AshfallVolcanic Explosivity Index (local data)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)101 records, 1999 to 2025 (77 zone-level)Wildfire, 2020-09-08, $10,000,000 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars), 3 direct deaths (reported for the zone); NWS zone ORZ026No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (77) apply countywide.
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)121 records, 1997 to 2026 (121 zone-level)No damage reported in 121 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow, lightning and volcanic ash, volcanic ashfall.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 15 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-08-142026-08-13FM-5670-ORFire managementFielder Mountain FireWildfirenot yet in FEMA's PA summaries (they cover declarations through 2026-06-30)new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-06-182025-06-18FM-5590-ORFire managementUpper Applegate Road FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2020-09-152020-09-07DR-4562-ORMajor disasterWildfires and Straight-Line WindsWildfire$7,543,123.60
2020-09-102020-09-08EM-3542-OREmergencyWildfiresWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4562
2020-09-092020-09-08FM-5367-ORFire managementSouth Obenchain FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4562
2020-09-092020-09-08FM-5364-ORFire managementAlmeda Glendower FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4562
2020-03-282020-01-20DR-4499-ORMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$144,355,013.78
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3429-OREmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4499
2018-08-242018-08-23FM-5274-ORFire managementRamsey Canyon FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2018-07-192018-07-18FM-5256-ORFire managementGarner Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2014-08-012014-07-31FM-5066-ORFire managementOregon Gulch FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2009-09-222009-09-21FM-2838-ORFire managementSouth County Fire ComplexWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-03-202005-12-18DR-1632-ORMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and MudslidesInland Flooding; Landslide$1,052,370.67
2005-09-072005-08-29EM-3228-OREmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-09-062003-09-05FM-2496-ORFire managementOr-Cove Road Fire-09-05-2003Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2002-07-282002-07-27FM-2454-ORFire managementTimbered Rock FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2002-07-172002-07-16FM-2445-ORFire managementOr - Squire Peak/Wall Creek Fire - 07/17/02Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
1997-01-231996-12-25DR-1160-ORMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms, Land and Mudslides, FloodingInland Flooding; Landslide; Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1977-04-291977-04-29EM-3039-OREmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1974-01-251974-01-25DR-413-ORMajor disasterSevere Storms, Snowmelt & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1964-12-241964-12-24DR-184-ORMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $604,679.01 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1963-02-251963-02-25DR-144-ORMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1962-10-161962-10-16DR-136-ORMajor disasterSevere StormsHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1957-03-011957-03-01DR-69-ORMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1956-07-201956-07-20DR-60-ORMajor disasterStorm & FloodInland Flooding
1955-12-291955-12-29DR-49-ORMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

27 Fire Management declarations (1973-08-17 to 2001-08-17) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any Oregon county: 1 row, $479,867.27; listed on the Oregon state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave1455413001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 119 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail63000001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave14214001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Inland Flooding24101401996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000201996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 2 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Lightning6101001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1358217001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 90 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado0000001950 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1950 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Volcanic Activity0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire101132231021996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather121171235101996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-07-16Thunderstorm Wind56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust$160,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)0, 0PHOENIX to CENTRAL PTnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c most damaging: Thunderstorm Wind
2024-07-04Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)2, 0NWS zone ORZ026 (JACKSON COUNTY), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2020-09-08Wildfire$10,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)3, 0NWS zone ORZ026 (JACKSON COUNTY), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2017-05-04Hail1.75 in$0 property; $0 crops (2017 dollars)0, 0UNION CREEKB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2017-01-21High Wind108 kt (124 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2017 dollars)0, 0NWS zone ORZ028 (SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS & SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2009-12-05Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)1, 0NWS zone ORZ026 (JACKSON COUNTY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2009-05-31Lightning$100,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 1VOORHIES to TOLOB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2008-01-03High Wind70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2008 dollars)1, 0NWS zone ORZ026 (JACKSON COUNTY), zone-levelB1-c most damaging: High Wind and Strong Wind
2002-07-13Thunderstorm Wind80 kt (92 mph) estimateddamage not reported0, 0SAMS VLYB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-03-21Flooddamage not reported2, 1Storm Events area JOSEPHINE T X SE/JACKSON T X S (legacy zone code ORZ008), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1997-09-02Hail1.5 inproperty not reported; $2,100,000 crops (1997 dollars)0, 0(MFR)MEDFORD ARPTB1-c most damaging: Hail
1997-01-01Flood$60,400,000 property; $10,500,000 crops (zone total, 1997 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area ROGUE BASIN (legacy zone code ORZ008), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (611 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave0.021event-days per yearabout 0.021 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)0.3992005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought51.6event-days per yearabout 51.6 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)2,0442000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.0125annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 1.25%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.158events per yearabout 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)6.0 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave6.45event-days per yearabout 6.45 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)90.92005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic); 1949 to 2024 (Pacific)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.0149event-days per yearabout 0.0149 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)01946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywideNo Storm Events ice storm record, 1996 to 2025
Inland Flooding0.571event-days per yearabout 0.571 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 14 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (46.7%)161996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide2.86events per year (modeled)about 2.86 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning9.8days per year with a strikeabout 9.8 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.0607events per yearabout 1 in 16 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)31986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.019events per yearabout 1 in 53 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Volcanic Activity0.0016annual probabilityabout 1 in 625 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Wildfire0.011annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 1.1%LikelyStorm Events records in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather23.5event-days per yearabout 23.5 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)4472005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202530301
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202519300.633
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20252300.0667
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20257300.233
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20250300
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche15 of 5216.120.122.5Very Low 15, Not Applicable 37
Cold Wave6 of 5215.922.642.8Relatively Low 4, Very Low 2, No Rating 46
Drought11 of 5268.669.777.4Very Low 11, No Rating 41
Earthquake52 of 5274.586.199.7Very High 1, Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 37, Relatively Low 1
Hail52 of 5224.739.457.8Relatively Low 32, Very Low 20
Heat Wave52 of 5251.283.891.1Relatively High 22, Relatively Moderate 29, Relatively Low 1
Hurricane0 of 52Not Applicable 52
Ice Storm52 of 521.93.65.7Very Low 52
Inland Flooding52 of 5210.170.599.9Very High 6, Relatively High 12, Relatively Moderate 22, Relatively Low 11, Very Low 1
Landslide49 of 529.032.597.9Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 9, Very Low 35, No Rating 3
Lightning52 of 5215.035.749.0Relatively Low 48, Very Low 4
Strong Wind52 of 5213.724.533.1Relatively Low 42, Very Low 10
Tornado52 of 521.62.23.5Very Low 52
Volcanic Activity52 of 5241.576.696.4Relatively Low 1, Very Low 51
Wildfire51 of 5223.789.799.9Very High 9, Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 17, No Rating 1
Winter Weather52 of 5270.391.996.0Very High 1, Relatively High 48, Relatively Moderate 3

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Jackson CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 6$3,474,340.050 total; 0 since its planIncludes $76,873.32 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4499-OR).
Ashland cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$72,186.8516 total; 1 since its planIncludes $37,649.12 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4499-OR).
Butte Falls townTownApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$10,634.812 total; 0 since its plan
Central Point cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$618,975.560 total; 0 since its plan
Eagle Point cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$46,592.570 total; 0 since its plan
Gold Hill cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded1 total; 1 since its plan
Jacksonville cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1no Public Assistance recorded3 total; 1 since its plan
Medford cityCityApproved, expires 2027-09-22FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$382,212.5316 total; 1 since its planIncludes $43,227.12 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4499-OR).
Phoenix cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,376,066.252 total; 2 since its plan
Rogue River cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$22,613.543 total; 0 since its plan
Shady Cove cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$9,386.703 total; 1 since its plan
Talent cityCityApproved, expires 2029-02-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$1,016,548.712 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-02-13county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$1,966,353n/aunder 1$2n/a$1240.000105%
Cold Wave$904,486,330$9,586,1762,539$16$266$59,428under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$58,336,036n/an/a$1,738n/a0.00298% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$93,619,876,480n/a223,259$21,680,737n/a$13,400,7180.0232%
Hail$54,701,142,974$91,487,142222,969$156,663$19,813$25,3840.000286%
Heat Wave$54,701,142,974$91,487,142222,969$1,714$20,517$5,897,959under 0.0001%$0
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$54,701,142,974n/a222,969$127n/a$15,212under 0.0001%
Inland Flooding$54,672,125,691$11,076,4247,281$53,795,490$32,670$295,358n/a (see note)$0NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$2,612,896,499n/a9,463$11,750n/a$24,8140.00045%
Lightning$54,701,142,974n/a222,969$17,140n/a$318,694under 0.0001%$12,000
Strong Wind$54,701,142,974$91,487,142222,969$71,122$251$193,2880.00013%$362,000
Tornado$54,701,142,974$91,487,142222,969$18,819$12$11,455under 0.0001%
Volcanic Activity$54,701,142,974n/a222,969$78n/a$212under 0.0001%
Wildfire$6,396,159,180$51,159,17647,184$23,549,689$1,438$1,460,3700.368%$0no Public Assistance recorded (2 declarations)
Winter Weather$54,701,142,974$91,487,142222,969$2,141under $1$902,748under 0.0001%$0

Totals since 2024-02-13 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 10 county-coded records, 9 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $374,000; 37 zone-level records, 37 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 2 counted declarations.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population222,969
Building value (total, not at risk)$54,701,142,974
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$91,487,142
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$99,382,192
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$22,605,764
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition13Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total001301304
of which: Central Point city0010100
of which: Eagle Point city0020200
of which: Jacksonville city0010100
of which: Rogue River city0020200
of which: Shady Cove city0010101
of which: Jackson County (unincorporated area)0060603
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0010100

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Jackson County4155890060603
Ashland city4100900000000
Butte Falls town4100910000000
Central Point city4100920010100
Eagle Point city4100930020200
Gold Hill city4100940000000
Jacksonville city4100950010100
Medford city4100960000000
Phoenix city4100970000000
Rogue River city4100980020200
Shady Cove city4100990010101
Talent city4101000000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential001201204
2 to 4 unit residential0010100
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 13 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Jackson County, OR: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 41029). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/or/41029/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]