Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Kay County, OK

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
40071
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: No approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligible.

Update: FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption.

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($10,443,740 a year), Cold Wave ($8,051,457) and Tornado ($7,799,098).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
No approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligible
Plan:
none
Approved:
none
Expires:
none
Update underway:
FEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoption

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Not yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

What changed since your last plan

Not available. No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 17 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Kay CountyCountyNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Blackwell cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Braman townTownNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Kaw City cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Kildare townTownNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Newkirk cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Ponca City cityCityApproved, expires 2027-08-24Ponca City (FEMA plan 107418)2022-08-252027-08-24328FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Tonkawa cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Blackwell Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Deer Creek-Lamont SchoolsSchool/School DistrictPlan 106488 approved 2023-03-21, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleGrant County (FEMA plan 106488), pending adoption here2023-03-21 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2028-03-20 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Frontier Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2029-09-24Noble County (FEMA plan 108454)2024-09-252029-09-241,090this jurisdiction approved 2024-10-10
Kildare Public SchoolSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Newkirk Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Ponca City Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictApproved, expires 2027-08-24Ponca City (FEMA plan 107418)2022-08-252027-08-24328FEMA tracker shows a plan awaiting revisions
Shidler Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on recordnonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan in review
Tonkawa Public SchoolsSchool/School DistrictNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Pioneer Vocational Tech CenterCollege/UniversityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligiblenonenonenoneFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively LowRelatively Low$7,158,509$873,217$2,412,014$10,443,74092
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$148$237,337$7,813,972$8,051,45714Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3TornadoRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$2,275,009$5,662$5,518,426$7,799,09832
4HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,407,339$252,573$107,643$1,767,555366
5Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$760$559$1,305,641$1,306,96179
6Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$1,111,287n/a$29,663$1,140,9509
7DroughtRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderaten/a$937,847n/a$937,847110
8WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$768,117$737$114,046$882,9001
9Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$295,180$2,103$347,514$644,797395Includes 20 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
10LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$13,653n/a$244,643$258,29612
11EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$169,690n/a$78,108$247,798Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
12Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$45,163$1,205$90,185$136,55366
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$4,571$2,594$39$7,2030No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$63n/a$1,072$1,1350No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 3 (Relatively Low, 56.3); tract 11 (Relatively Low, 55.9); tract 1 (Relatively Low, 55.3)
Hurricanetract 13.02 (Very Low, 37.5); tract 12 (Very Low, 36.0); tract 6 (Very Low, 36.0)
Landslidetract 12 (Relatively Low, 91.8); tract 6 (Relatively Low, 88.3); tract 13.02 (Very Low, 80.1)
Tornadotract 1 (Very High, 99.8); tract 2.02 (Very High, 99.5); tract 12 (Very High, 99.4)
Wildfiretract 6 (Relatively High, 98.3); tract 12 (Relatively High, 97.6); tract 3 (Relatively Moderate, 92.0)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 3 is Census Tract 3). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill13 records, 1996 to 2025 (13 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 2.5 days); 10 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 2024-01-12 to 2024-01-16, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2023 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)110 records, 2000 to 2026 (110 zone-level)12 days to 501 days (median 101 days); 15 with a recorded value501 days (about 16.5 months), 2022-07-16 to 2023-11-28, a run of 29 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelDrought, 2000-08-01, property not reported; $8,330,000 crops (zone total, 2000 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)568 records, 1955 to 20260.75 in to 4.5 in (median 1 in); 568 with a recorded value4.5 in hail, 1996-04-27; same size also recorded on 1996-04-21, 1996-04-27Hail, 1997-06-16, $25,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ponca City city (78 records), Blackwell city (75 records), Braman town (57 records), Tonkawa city (51 records), Newkirk city (46 records), Kildare town (25 records), Kaw City city (13 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)79 records, 1999 to 2026 (79 zone-level)1 day to 29 days (median 3 days); 27 with a recorded value29 consecutive days, 2006-07-16 to 2006-08-13, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)9 records, 1998 to 2020 (9 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2002-01-30, $25,000,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars); NWS zone OKZ008Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)92 records, 1996 to 2026 (11 zone-level)Flood, 2002-10-04, $25,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars); NWS zone OKZ008Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ponca City city (28 records), Blackwell city (11 records), Tonkawa city (9 records), Braman town (7 records), Newkirk city (7 records), Kildare town (6 records). Zone-level records (11) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)12 records, 1996 to 2008Lightning, 2002-06-12, $50,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ponca City city (7 records), Blackwell city (5 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)22 records, 1996 to 2025 (22 zone-level)36 kt (41 mph) to 62 kt (71 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 18 with a recorded value62 kt (71 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2024-05-02; NWS zone OKZ008High Wind, 2001-04-11, $75,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2001 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)525 records, 1956 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 99 kt (114 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 419 with a recorded value99 kt (114 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1998-06-13Thunderstorm Wind, 1993-05-08, $5,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1993 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Blackwell city (91 records), Newkirk city (66 records), Ponca City city (61 records), Braman town (45 records), Tonkawa city (25 records), Kaw City city (17 records), Kildare town (9 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)102 records, 1950 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF5 (median F/EF1); 97 with a recorded valueF5 tornado, 1955-05-25, 19.6 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 500 yd wide, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1955 dollars), 20 direct deaths, 280 direct injuriesEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Braman town (8 records), Tonkawa city (6 records), Newkirk city (5 records), Ponca City city (4 records), Blackwell city (3 records), Kaw City city (3 records).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2018 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)66 records, 1996 to 2026 (66 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2000-12-26, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2000 dollars); NWS zone OKZ008Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 36 declarations covering 30 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2024-04-302024-04-25DR-4776-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingTornado (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Strong Wind$386,623.62within last 5 years
2021-02-242021-02-08DR-4587-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsIce Storm$3,481.29
2021-02-172021-02-08EM-3555-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4587
2020-12-212020-10-26DR-4575-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter StormIce Storm$1,295,611.10
2020-04-052020-01-20DR-4530-OKMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$79,224.78
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3462-OKEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4530
2019-07-122019-04-30DR-4453-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$25,024.18
2019-06-012019-05-07DR-4438-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$3,193,948.29
2019-05-252019-05-07EM-3411-OKEmergencyFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4438
2016-02-102015-12-26DR-4256-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter Weather$752,018.52
2015-05-262015-05-05DR-4222-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$749,110.28
2013-04-082013-02-24DR-4109-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and SnowstormWinter Weather$1,456,411.95
2012-06-142012-04-28DR-4064-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and FloodingInland Flooding; Strong Wind; Tornado$1,856,168.30
2011-02-022011-01-31EM-3316-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
2010-02-252009-12-24DR-1876-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$123,012.22
2010-01-302010-01-28EM-3308-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
2008-10-092008-09-12DR-1803-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$1,785,977.87
2008-07-092008-06-03DR-1775-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$221,749.79
2007-12-102007-12-08EM-3280-OKEmergencySevere Winter StormsIce Stormno Public Assistance recorded
2007-07-072007-06-10DR-1712-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and TornadoesInland Flooding; Tornado$1,454,174.95
2007-06-072007-05-04DR-1707-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes and FloodingInland Flooding; Tornado$427,880.55
2007-02-012007-01-12DR-1678-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter StormsWinter Weather$223,593.67
2007-01-142007-01-12EM-3272-OKEmergencySevere Winter Storms and FloodingIce Stormno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1678
2006-04-062006-04-06FM-2633-OKFire managementPonca City FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2006-01-102005-11-27DR-1623-OKMajor disasterExtreme Wildfire ThreatWildfire$12,771.49
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3219-OKEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-05-102003-05-08DR-1465-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms and TornadoesTornadoPA not declared for this county
2002-02-012002-01-30DR-1401-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Storm$31,765,503.24
2001-01-052000-12-25DR-1355-OKMajor disasterSevere Winter Ice StormIce Storm$1,616,978.11
1995-09-011995-07-21DR-1066-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-05-121993-05-08DR-991-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1987-07-091987-05-19DR-794-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1986-10-141986-09-26DR-778-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1974-03-221974-03-22DR-419-OKMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-12-101973-12-10DR-409-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-10-131973-10-13DR-404-OKMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

School districts and special districts in this county: $27,038.09 (included in the county total above). Public Assistance matched by applicant name to the school districts and special districts FEMA lists as plan participants in this county. They have no row of their own in the jurisdiction table, so their total is listed here. These dollars are already included in the county PA column of the declarations table (the FEMA record places each applicant in this county), so this line is not added to it.

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1995-04-191995-04-19EM-3115-OKEmergencyExplosion at Federal Courthouse in Oklahoma CityNon-natural, not counted
1960-07-151960-07-15DR-104-OKMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Hail, Floods & TornadoesHail; Inland Flooding; Tornado
1959-11-091959-11-09DR-95-OKMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodsInland Flooding
1959-07-081959-07-08DR-92-OKMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1957-05-181957-05-18DR-74-OKMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1956-04-071956-04-07DR-54-OKMajor disasterTornadoesTornado
1955-06-011955-06-01DR-35-OKMajor disasterFlood & TornadoInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Tornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

13 Fire Management declarations (1971-04-08 to 2012-07-30) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $262,763.31

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-1917-OK2010-05-24Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsKay Electric Cooperative$262,763.31

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave141101996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought1104001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail5688501955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave797501996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm9061996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding928171996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning12001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind5476051955 to 2026-06-30Includes 20 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado10212101950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1021996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather66461996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2024-05-02High Wind62 kt (71 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2024-01-12Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2022-07-16Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2006-07-16Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2002-10-04Flood$25,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2002 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2002-06-12Lightning$50,000 property; crops not reported (2002 dollars)0, 0PONCA CITYB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2002-01-30Ice Storm$25,000,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2002 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
1999-07-30Heatdamage not reported3, 0NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1998-06-13Thunderstorm Wind99 kt (114 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0PONCA CITYB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1997-04-11Flooddamage not reported1, 1NWS zone OKZ008 (KAY), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1996-04-27Hail4.5 indamage not reported0, 0PECKHAMB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1955-05-25TornadoF5, 19.6 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 500 yd wide$25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1955 dollars)20, 280location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (1,600 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave2.68event-days per yearabout 2.68 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)512005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought59.2event-days per yearabout 59.2 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 17 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (56.7%)1,8482000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00101annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.101%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail9.6events per yearabout 9.6 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)364.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave17.3event-days per yearabout 17.3 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)2662005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.00583events per yearabout 1 in 171 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.786event-days per yearabout 0.786 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 7 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (23.3%)531946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.11event-days per yearabout 2.11 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 19 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (63.3%)591996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.143events per year (modeled)about 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning51.2days per year with a strikeabout 51.2 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind6.66events per yearabout 6.66 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)2541986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.906events per yearabout 0.91 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00349annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.349%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather8.89event-days per yearabout 8.89 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 24 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (80%)1692005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 2025208306.93
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202529300.967
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025288309.6
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202531301.03
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202536301.2
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202524300.8
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave11 of 1193.998.699.6Very High 10, Relatively High 1
Drought9 of 1174.694.398.3Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 3, No Rating 2
Earthquake11 of 1128.345.956.3Relatively Low 9, Very Low 2
Hail11 of 1188.596.498.0Relatively High 10, Relatively Moderate 1
Heat Wave11 of 1170.285.593.4Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 5
Hurricane11 of 1127.030.537.5Very Low 11
Ice Storm11 of 1195.598.099.1Very High 6, Relatively High 5
Inland Flooding11 of 1122.278.997.6Very High 1, Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 2
Landslide11 of 1119.254.291.8Relatively Low 2, Very Low 9
Lightning11 of 1157.277.191.5Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 6
Strong Wind11 of 1175.585.293.7Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 4
Tornado11 of 1195.898.999.8Very High 11
Wildfire11 of 1134.281.398.3Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 2
Winter Weather11 of 1178.788.695.0Relatively High 11

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Kay CountyCountyNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 8$9,515,9630 total; no approved plan
Blackwell cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 4; any 15$2,052,111.74185 total; no approved plan
Braman townTownNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$123,661.89117 total; no approved plan
Kaw City cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$26,77233 total; no approved plan
Kildare townTownNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded40 total; no approved plan
Newkirk cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 1$270,995.07124 total; no approved plan
Ponca City cityCityApproved, expires 2027-08-24FMA RL 0, SRL 2; any 10$3,084,794.71178 total; 16 since its planIncludes $79,224.78 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4530-OK).
Tonkawa cityCityNo approved plan on record. Approvable pending adoption, not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$493,438.8391 total; no approved plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since plancounty-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$8,232,184,739$113,604,44343,578$148$237,337$7,813,972under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$50,948,099n/an/a$937,847n/a1.84% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$14,609,472,286n/a43,700$169,690n/a$78,1080.00116%
Hail$8,232,184,739$113,604,44343,578$1,407,339$252,573$107,6430.0171%
Heat Wave$8,232,184,739$113,604,44343,578$760$559$1,305,641under 0.0001%
Hurricane$8,228,511,409$111,195,62543,572$4,571$2,594$39under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$8,232,038,275n/a43,577$1,111,287n/a$29,6630.0135%
Inland Flooding$8,230,957,376$30,546,6252,075$7,158,509$873,217$2,412,014n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$28,009,754n/a115$63n/a$1,0720.000226%
Lightning$8,232,184,739n/a43,578$13,653n/a$244,6430.000166%
Strong Wind$8,232,184,739$113,604,44343,578$295,180$2,103$347,5140.00359%
Tornado$8,232,184,739$113,604,44343,578$2,275,009$5,662$5,518,4260.0276%
Wildfire$1,306,110,354$28,045,7098,157$768,117$737$114,0460.0588%
Winter Weather$8,232,184,739$113,604,44343,578$45,163$1,205$90,1850.000549%

Totals since the plan: not available. No approved plan on record, so there is no approval date to count from.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population43,578
Building value (total, not at risk)$8,232,184,739
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$113,604,443
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$15,563,323
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$18,062,966
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)7
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition34Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total273463513
of which: Blackwell city041541500
of which: Tonkawa city0010100
of which: Ponca City city02911011
of which: Newkirk city1111100
of which: Kay County (unincorporated area)1080802

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Kay County4004771080802
Blackwell city400078041541500
Braman town4002640000000
Kaw City city4002910000000
Kildare town4002010000000
Newkirk city4004221111100
Ponca City city40008002911011
Tonkawa city4000790010100

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential273463513
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0000000
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 32 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Kay County, OK: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 40071). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/ok/40071/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]