Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Butler County, OH

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
39017
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-11-16. Plan: Butler County (FEMA plan 109337), approved 2023-11-17.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-11-17: no new federal declaration.

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 64 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($62,294,067 a year), Tornado ($27,923,597) and Cold Wave ($16,107,723).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 1, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 42.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2028-11-16
Plan:
Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)
Approved:
2023-11-17
Days to expiry:
778

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-11-17)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
64 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 1, SRL 1 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 42
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county: 13 rows, in the section "Plan clock: Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county" on the following pages.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Plan clock

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryUpdate underwayNotes
Butler CountyCountyApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778
College Corner villageVillagePlan 109337 approved 2023-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleButler County (FEMA plan 109337), pending adoption here2023-11-17 by FEMA; not yet adopted here2028-11-16 once adoptedFEMA tracker shows a plan approvable pending adoptionNot yet eligible: adopt the approved plan.
Fairfield cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2023-12-12
Hamilton cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2024-05-22
Jacksonburg villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2024-06-18
Middletown cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2023-12-12
Millville villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2023-12-12
Monroe cityCityApproved, expires 2030-11-16Warren County 2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA plan 111229)2025-11-172030-11-161,508Also approved under plan 109337 (Butler County, expires 2028-11-16). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last.
New Miami villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2024-12-11
Oxford cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2024-06-18
Seven Mile villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2023-12-12
Sharonville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778Also approved under plan 109296 (Hamilton County, expires 2028-09-20). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. this jurisdiction approved 2024-06-18
Trenton cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16Butler County (FEMA plan 109337)2023-11-172028-11-16778this jurisdiction approved 2024-06-18

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively High$61,512,465$134,370$647,233$62,294,067114
2TornadoRelatively HighRelatively High$16,436,179$807$11,486,612$27,923,59712
3Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$9,656$62,840$16,035,228$16,107,7235Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
4EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$2,586,691n/a$749,215$3,335,906Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
5Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$2,191,560$541$991,256$3,183,358245Includes 15 High Wind and 5 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
6LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$69,245n/a$1,890,662$1,959,9077
7Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$40,444$1$1,837,801$1,878,2468
8Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$832,368n/a$490,603$1,322,9716
9HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,041,151$14,332$5,139$1,060,622129
10Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively High$230,657$267$243,462$474,387134
11DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$124,315n/a$124,3152
12WildfireVery LowVery Low$27,428$13$5,248$32,6890No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$11,725$1,684$99$13,5070Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
14LandslideRelatively LowRelatively Low$3,148n/a$8,815$11,9640No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 111.23 (Relatively Moderate, 81.6); tract 109.06 (Relatively Moderate, 78.1); tract 109.09 (Relatively Low, 77.8)
Hurricanetract 111.23 (Very Low, 35.4); tract 102.02 (Very Low, 31.0); tract 109.09 (Very Low, 28.6)
Landslidetract 108 (Relatively Low, 95.4); tract 102.02 (Relatively Low, 93.0); tract 102.03 (Relatively Low, 92.4)
Tornadotract 111.23 (Very High, 99.8); tract 110.04 (Very High, 99.0); tract 109.06 (Very High, 98.5)
Wildfiretract 102.03 (Relatively Low, 80.9); tract 150 (Relatively Low, 74.4); tract 102.02 (Relatively Low, 71.2)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 111.23 is Census Tract 111.23). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill4 records, 1996 to 2022 (4 zone-level)1 day to 5 days (median 3 days); 4 with a recorded value5 consecutive days, 1996-02-01 to 1996-02-05, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2007-04-06, $540,000 crop damage (2007 dollars); NWS zone OHZ070Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)2 records, 1999 (2 zone-level)62 days; 1 with a recorded value62 days (2 months), 1999-07-01 to 1999-08-31, a run of 2 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)159 records, 1969 to 20250.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 157 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1990-06-30; same size also recorded on 1974-04-03Hail, 1995-06-20, $20,000 property; $20,000 crops (1995 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Hamilton city (23 records), Oxford city (16 records), Middletown city (12 records), Fairfield city (7 records), Monroe city (7 records), Trenton city (5 records), Millville village (2 records), Seven Mile village (2 records), New Miami village (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)8 records, 1999 to 2023 (8 zone-level)1 day to 12 days (median 3 days); 6 with a recorded value12 consecutive days, 1999-07-20 to 1999-07-31, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)6 records, 1996 to 2018 (6 zone-level)No damage reported in 6 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)114 records, 1996 to 2026 (21 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2001-07-17, $1,470,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Hamilton city (14 records), Millville village (8 records), Seven Mile village (5 records), New Miami village (4 records), Fairfield city (2 records), Middletown city (2 records), Monroe city (2 records), Oxford city (2 records), Trenton city (2 records). Zone-level records (21) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)7 records, 1996 to 2018Lightning, 2011-09-04, $0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars), 1 direct death, 1 direct injuryLightning, 1998-05-19, $750,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Fairfield city (1 record), Middletown city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)20 records, 1996 to 2026 (20 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 58 kt (67 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 20 with a recorded value58 kt (67 mph) measured, High Wind, 2000-12-11; NWS zone OHZ070High Wind, 2008-09-14, $41,700,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2008 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)311 records, 1959 to 202640 kt (46 mph) to 85 kt (98 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 229 with a recorded value85 kt (98 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1997-01-05Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Hamilton city (27 records), Oxford city (26 records), Middletown city (23 records), Fairfield city (14 records), Monroe city (14 records), Trenton city (14 records), Seven Mile village (6 records), Millville village (5 records), New Miami village (4 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)26 records, 1951 to 2026F/EF0 to F/EF4 (median F/EF1); 26 with a recorded valueF4 tornado, 1990-06-02, 3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,350 yd wide, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1990 dollars), 2 direct injuriesNo event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)134 records, 1996 to 2026 (134 zone-level)Winter Storm, 1996-01-06, $500,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars); NWS zone OHZ070Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 14 declarations covering 9 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsNotes
2020-03-312020-01-20DR-4507-OHMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$5,247,753.13
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3457-OHEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4507
2012-06-302012-06-29EM-3346-OHEmergencySevere StormsHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2008-10-242008-09-14DR-1805-OHMajor disasterSevere Wind Storm Associated with Tropical Depression IkeHurricane; Strong Wind$3,294,722.12
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3250-OHEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2005-01-112004-12-22EM-3198-OHEmergencySnowWinter Weather$570,166.56
2004-09-192004-08-27DR-1556-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding: designated for Hazard Mitigation only (no Public or Individual Assistance for this county); not countedPA not declared for this county
2001-08-272001-07-17DR-1390-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$800,600.19
1996-06-241996-05-02DR-1122-OHMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1990-06-061990-05-28DR-870-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms, Tornadoes & FloodingInland Flooding; Tornadono Public Assistance recorded
1989-06-101989-05-23DR-831-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland FloodingPA not declared for this county
1978-01-261978-01-26EM-3055-OHEmergencyBlizzards & SnowstormsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1974-04-041974-04-04DR-421-OHMajor disasterTornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded
1968-06-051968-06-05DR-243-OHMajor disasterHeavy Rains & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-03-241964-03-24DR-167-OHMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1959-01-231959-01-23DR-90-OHMajor disasterFloodsInland Flooding
1956-05-171956-05-17DR-57-OHMajor disasterWind StormOther, not an NRI hazard; not counted

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any Ohio county: 1 row, $3,080,910.74; listed on the Ohio state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave5011001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1597311001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave8011001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Ice Storm6000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding11418125501996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Lightning7000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind33120640101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 15 High Wind and 5 Strong Wind records.
Tornado26729201950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather13412319201996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationWhy listed
2011-09-04Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)1, 1WEST CHESTERdeaths or injuries recorded
2009-02-04Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2009 dollars)1, 0NWS zone OHZ070 (BUTLER), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2007-04-06Frost/Freeze$0 property; $540,000 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OHZ070 (BUTLER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2001-07-17Flash Flood$1,470,000 property; crops not reported (2001 dollars)0, 0COUNTYWIDEB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2000-12-11High Wind58 kt (67 mph) measureddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OHZ070 (BUTLER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1999-07-20Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone OHZ070 (BUTLER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
1997-01-05Thunderstorm Wind85 kt (98 mph), measurement type not recorded$1,000,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars)0, 0HANOVER TWP to MONROEB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1996-02-01Cold/Wind Chill$30,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OHZ070 (BUTLER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1996-01-06Winter Storm$500,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (1996 dollars)0, 0NWS zone OHZ070 (BUTLER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1990-06-30Hail2.75 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail
1990-06-02TornadoF4, 3 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 1,350 yd wide$25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1990 dollars)0, 2location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1990-05-04TornadoF2, 0.2 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 150 yd wide$250,000 property; crops not recorded (1990 dollars)1, 5location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (792 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

FEMA's declaration data list no tribal or special-area declarations for this state.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave3.16event-days per yearabout 3.16 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 4 of 30 years)event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)602005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought1.53event-days per yearabout 1.53 days per yearPossible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)702000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00153annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.153%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.61events per yearabout 3.61 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)137.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave6.21event-days per yearabout 6.21 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 5 of 30 years)event-days in 5 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (16.7%)972005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.00575events per yearabout 1 in 174 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)21851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.09event-days per yearabout 1.09 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 6 of 30 years)event-days in 6 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (20%)741946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.57event-days per yearabout 2.57 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 28 of 30 years)event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)721996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.192events per year (modeled)about 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning48.9days per year with a strikeabout 48.9 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind2.75events per yearabout 2.75 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1051986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.331events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000885annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00885%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather11.5event-days per yearabout 11.5 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 28 of 30 years)event-days in 28 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (93.3%)2182005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202566302.2
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20255300.167
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025197306.57
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 202519300.633
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202511300.367
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave86 of 8650.278.992.1Relatively High 47, Relatively Moderate 39
Drought44 of 8666.875.993.2Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 14, Very Low 29, No Rating 42
Earthquake86 of 864.147.281.6Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 55, Very Low 29
Hail86 of 869.656.090.2Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 5, Relatively Low 77, Very Low 3
Heat Wave86 of 867.527.653.5Relatively Low 70, Very Low 16
Hurricane86 of 8611.320.535.4Very Low 86
Ice Storm86 of 8641.473.896.8Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 62, Relatively Low 20
Inland Flooding86 of 860.751.991.1Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 35, Relatively Low 32, Very Low 6
Landslide86 of 8617.264.995.4Relatively Low 16, Very Low 70
Lightning86 of 8635.067.290.1Relatively High 20, Relatively Moderate 54, Relatively Low 12
Strong Wind86 of 8635.066.796.9Very High 1, Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 61, Relatively Low 16
Tornado86 of 8659.182.399.8Very High 13, Relatively High 47, Relatively Moderate 26
Wildfire85 of 8618.744.180.9Relatively Low 4, Very Low 81, No Rating 1
Winter Weather86 of 8642.762.895.2Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 75, Relatively Low 5

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Butler CountyCountyApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 9$251,973.990 total; 0 since its plan
College Corner villageVillagePlan 109337 approved 2023-11-17, pending adoption here; not yet eligibleFMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; no approved plan
Fairfield cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 21$496,250.6424 total; 5 since its plan
Hamilton cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 1, SRL 0; any 3$1,784,207.1764 total; 0 since its planIncludes $458,629.75 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4507-OH).
Jacksonburg villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded0 total; 0 since its plan
Middletown cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2$372,567.2738 total; 1 since its plan
Millville villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 3no Public Assistance recorded15 total; 5 since its plan
Monroe cityCityApproved, expires 2030-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 1$121,466.3023 total; 0 since its planAlso approved under plan 109337 (Butler County, expires 2028-11-16). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. Whole community, including the part in Warren County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county. Includes $8,876.91 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4507-OH).
New Miami villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$29,061.839 total; 1 since its plan
Oxford cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$197,313.7344 total; 2 since its plan
Seven Mile villageVillageApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 2no Public Assistance recorded13 total; 3 since its plan
Sharonville cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 1; any 10$229,896.460 total; 0 since its planAlso approved under plan 109296 (Hamilton County, expires 2028-09-20). FEMA's plan status map shows one plan per jurisdiction and may show one of these; this packet uses the approved plan that expires last. Whole community, including the part in Hamilton County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Trenton cityCityApproved, expires 2028-11-16FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$67,780.4421 total; 2 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2023-11-17county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$84,205,523,066$70,671,625390,244$9,656$62,840$16,035,228under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$40,672,070n/an/a$124,315n/a0.306% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$149,370,043,548n/a390,357$2,586,691n/a$749,2150.00173%
Hail$84,205,567,103$70,671,625390,244$1,041,151$14,332$5,1390.00124%$0
Heat Wave$84,205,523,066$70,671,625390,244$40,444$1$1,837,801under 0.0001%
Hurricane$83,202,665,542$70,209,928385,508$11,725$1,684$99under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$84,201,747,847n/a390,208$832,368n/a$490,6030.000989%
Inland Flooding$84,110,958,309$5,162,3685,762$61,512,465$134,370$647,233n/a (see note)$131,000NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,040,709,809n/a5,145$3,148n/a$8,8150.000303%
Lightning$84,205,567,103n/a390,244$69,245n/a$1,890,662under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$84,205,567,103$70,671,625390,244$2,191,560$541$991,2560.0026%$56,600
Tornado$84,205,567,103$70,671,625390,244$16,436,179$807$11,486,6120.0195%$626,000
Wildfire$12,801,543,412$16,362,13871,730$27,428$13$5,2480.000214%
Winter Weather$84,205,523,066$70,671,625390,244$230,657$267$243,4620.000274%$0

Totals since 2023-11-17 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 50 county-coded records, 50 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $813,600; 14 zone-level records, 1 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population390,244
Building value (total, not at risk)$84,205,567,103
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$70,671,625
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$85,331,888
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$34,391,373
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)1
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition42Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total1142142017
of which: Butler County (unincorporated area)0090902
of which: Fairfield city012112109
of which: Hamilton city1030300
of which: Middletown city0020201
of which: Millville village0030303
of which: Seven Mile village0020201
of which: Somerville village (community ID not in plan data)0020201
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0010100

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredpropertiesNote
Butler County3900370090902
College Corner village3909430000000
Fairfield city390038012112109
Hamilton city3900391030300
Jacksonburg village3900810000000
Middletown city3900400020201
Millville village3900410030303
Monroe city3900420111101Whole community, including the part in Warren County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
New Miami village3900430000000
Oxford city3907310000000
Seven Mile village3900450020201
Sharonville city390236011011002Whole community, including the part in Hamilton County; none of its repeat-flood properties are in this county.
Trenton city3900470000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential1141141017
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0000000
non-residential0010100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 41 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Butler County, OH: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 39017). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/oh/39017/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.