Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Lincoln County, NM

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
35027
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2029-03-17. Plan: Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282), approved 2024-03-18.

Since the plan was approved on 2024-03-18: 6 new hazard declarations (3 incidents) and 132 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Wildfire ($14,534,903 a year), Inland Flooding ($11,886,780) and Lightning ($638,599).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2029-03-17
Plan:
Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)
Approved:
2024-03-18
Days to expiry:
899

What changed since your last plan (approved 2024-03-18)

New federal declarations:
6 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): FM-5492-NM (Blue 2 Fire), FM-5497-NM (South Fork Fire), FM-5498-NM (Salt Fire), DR-4795-NM (South Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and Flooding), EM-3628-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides), DR-4886-NM (Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides)
Storm Events records since approval:
132 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 4, SRL 7 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 35
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Lincoln CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899
Capitan villageVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899
Carrizozo townVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899
Corona villageVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899
Ruidoso Downs cityCityApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899this jurisdiction approved 2024-04-11
Ruidoso villageVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899
Claunch-Pinto Soil and Water Conservation DistrictConservation DistrictApproved, expires 2029-03-17Lincoln County (FEMA plan 109282)2024-03-182029-03-17899this jurisdiction approved 2024-12-05

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1WildfireRelatively HighRelatively High$14,010,395$516$523,991$14,534,90320
2Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Low$10,670,178$149,549$1,067,052$11,886,780119
3LightningRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$2,528n/a$636,071$638,5993
4Winter WeatherRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$108,387$869$94,463$203,71865
5Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$132,267n/a$7,361$139,6281
6HailRelatively LowVery Low$67,758$583$48,928$117,268123
7Strong WindVery LowVery Low$27,309$311$68,797$96,417225Includes 190 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
8Cold WaveVery LowVery Low$300$1,642$66,581$68,5234
9TornadoVery LowVery Low$43,232$298$3,249$46,77914
10EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$26,458n/a$4,929$31,388Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
11Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$2$185$7,754$7,9410No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
12LandslideRelatively LowVery Low$5,946n/a$1,111$7,05712
13HurricaneVery LowVery Low$2,139$376$1$2,5160No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$1,579n/a$1,579104
15AvalancheVery LowVery Low$1n/a$123$1230No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
16Volcanic ActivityVery LowVery Low$1n/a$6$70No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local volcanic activity records (Storm Events records this hazard only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: coastal flooding and tsunami. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Avalanchetract 9604.01 (Very Low, 23.8); tract 9602 (Very Low, 23.2); tract 9603 (Very Low, 23.2)
Earthquaketract 9602 (Very Low, 34.1); tract 9606.03 (Very Low, 20.0); tract 9606.02 (Very Low, 18.6)
Hurricanetract 9604.01 (Very Low, 32.7); tract 9604.03 (Very Low, 29.9); tract 9606.03 (Very Low, 28.9)
Landslidetract 9603 (Relatively Moderate, 96.5); tract 9604.03 (Relatively Low, 94.3); tract 9604.01 (Relatively Low, 94.1)
Tornadotract 9604.03 (Very Low, 23.4); tract 9603 (Very Low, 22.6); tract 9606.03 (Very Low, 20.7)
Volcanic Activitytract 9602 (Very Low, 79.5); tract 9603 (Very Low, 64.2); tract 9604.03 (Very Low, 62.7)
Wildfiretract 9604.03 (Very High, 99.8); tract 9606.03 (Very High, 99.8); tract 9608 (Very High, 99.6)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9604.01 is Census Tract 9604.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Avalanchenone (count and damage only)0
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill4 records, 2011 to 2025 (4 zone-level)2 days; 3 with a recorded value2 consecutive days, 2025-01-20 to 2025-01-21, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)104 records, 2011 to 2026 (104 zone-level)92 days to 1,228 days (median 456.5 days); 6 with a recorded value1228 days (about 40.3 months), 2011-03-22 to 2014-07-31, a run of 41 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)135 records, 1962 to 20260.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 135 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 2014-06-07; same size also recorded on 1989-06-10, 2013-06-07Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ruidoso village (9 records), Capitan village (8 records), Ruidoso Downs city (8 records), Carrizozo town (2 records), Corona village (2 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2015 (1 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2015-11-27, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); Storm Events area EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY (legacy zone code NMZ539)Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)119 records, 1996 to 2026Flood, 2008-07-26, $25,000,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars), 1 direct deathEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ruidoso village (30 records), Ruidoso Downs city (12 records), Capitan village (7 records), Carrizozo town (2 records).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)12 records, 2024 to 2025Debris Flow, 2025-07-08, $50,000,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars), 3 direct deathsEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Ruidoso village (6 records), Ruidoso Downs city (1 record).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)3 records, 1997 to 2015Lightning, 2015-05-15, $0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars), 1 direct death, 1 direct injuryLightning, 2009-05-20, $25,000 property; crops not reported (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Capitan village (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)191 records, 2009 to 2026 (191 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 81 kt (93 mph) (median 55 kt (63 mph)); 191 with a recorded value81 kt (93 mph) measured gust, High Wind, 2026-03-27; NWS zone NMZ224High Wind, 2009-12-08, $300,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)36 records, 1989 to 202550 kt (58 mph) to 76 kt (87 mph) (median 54 kt (62 mph)); 34 with a recorded value76 kt (87 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2012-08-18Thunderstorm Wind, 2023-12-23, $10,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Carrizozo town (3 records), Ruidoso village (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)23 records, 1957 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF0); 20 with a recorded valueEF1 tornado, 2014-06-08, 1.75 mi within this county, 160 yd wide, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Capitan village (1 record), Carrizozo town (1 record), Ruidoso Downs city (1 record), Ruidoso village (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Volcanic Ash, Volcanic AshfallVolcanic Explosivity Index (local data)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)20 records, 1996 to 2026 (17 zone-level)Wildfire, 2012-06-04, $26,000,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars); Storm Events area SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (legacy zone code NMZ526)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Corona village (1 record), Ruidoso village (1 record). Zone-level records (17) apply countywide.
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)65 records, 2009 to 2026 (65 zone-level)Blizzard, 2015-12-26, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); Storm Events area EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY (legacy zone code NMZ539)Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of avalanche, debris flow, lightning and volcanic ash, volcanic ashfall.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 35 declarations covering 25 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-07-222025-06-23DR-4886-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$11,439,158.74new since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-07-102025-06-23EM-3628-NMEmergencySevere Storms, Flooding, and LandslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslideno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4886
2024-06-202024-06-17DR-4795-NMMajor disasterSouth Fork Fire, Salt Fire, and FloodingWildfire$38,215,924.41new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-06-182024-06-17FM-5498-NMFire managementSalt FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4795
2024-06-172024-06-17FM-5497-NMFire managementSouth Fork FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4795
2024-05-262024-05-16FM-5492-NMFire managementBlue 2 FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2022-05-042022-04-05DR-4652-NMMajor disasterWildfires, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Mudflows, and Debris FlowsWildfire (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslide$7,616,909.01within last 5 years
2022-04-122022-04-12FM-5433-NMFire managementNogal Canyon FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4652
2022-04-122022-04-12FM-5432-NMFire managementMcBride FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4652
2021-04-272021-04-26FM-5386-NMFire managementThree Rivers FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2020-04-052020-01-20DR-4529-NMMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$61,949
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3460-NMEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4529
2014-10-292014-09-15DR-4199-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$12,206.28
2014-10-062014-07-27DR-4197-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$6,688.52
2013-10-292013-09-09DR-4152-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and MudslidesInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide$96,263.17
2012-08-242012-06-22DR-4079-NMMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$2,788,691.63
2012-06-092012-06-04FM-2979-NMFire managementLittle Bear FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2011-06-302011-06-28FM-2935-NMFire managementDonaldson FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2011-04-032011-04-03FM-2880-NMFire managementWhite FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2011-03-242011-02-01DR-1962-NMMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and Extreme Cold TemperaturesWinter Weather$628,222.72
2008-08-142008-07-26DR-1783-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$46,512,439.04
2006-08-302006-07-26DR-1659-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$815,040.67
2005-09-072005-08-29EM-3229-NMEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-05-252004-05-15FM-2518-NMFire managementPeppin FireWildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2002-03-232002-03-23FM-2398-NMFire managementNm-Kokopelli Fire Complex-3-23-02Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2001-06-032001-06-02FM-2364-NMFire managementNm -Trap and Skeet Fire - 06/02/2001Wildfireno Public Assistance recorded
2000-05-132000-05-05DR-1329-NMMajor disasterSevere Forest FireWildfirePA not declared for this county
2000-05-102000-05-05EM-3154-NMEmergencySevere Fire ThreatsWildfire$41,959.99same incident as DR-1329
2000-05-082000-05-07FM-2296-NMFire managementCree FireWildfireno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1329
1998-01-291997-12-22DR-1202-NMMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1985-01-181985-01-18DR-731-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1984-09-061984-08-08DR-722-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1979-06-231979-06-23DR-589-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms, Snowmelt & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1979-01-291979-01-29DR-571-NMMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1965-07-011965-07-01DR-202-NMMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1998-07-021998-06-29EM-3128-NMEmergencyExtreme Fire HazardsWildfire
1955-08-151955-08-15DR-38-NMMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding
1954-10-131954-10-13DR-27-NMMajor disasterFloodInland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

5 Fire Management declarations (1974-05-21 to 2003-05-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance not placed in any New Mexico county: 1 row, $6,157.13; listed on the New Mexico state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Avalanche0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Cold Wave4203001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought10419839001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1356310001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding119473601311996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide1212012311996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning3000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind227342179001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 190 High Wind and 1 Strong Wind records.
Tornado23112001950 to 2026-06-30
Volcanic Activity0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire2070101121996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather654115201996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2026-03-27High Wind81 kt (93 mph) measured gustdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NMZ224 (SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2025-07-08Debris Flow$50,000,000 property; $0 crops (2025 dollars)3, 0ALTOnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2025-01-20Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NMZ224 (SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2024-06-17Wildfire$23,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2024 dollars)2, 0NWS zone NMZ226 (SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2022-04-12Wildfire$10,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)2, 0NWS zone NMZ226 (SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS), zone-levelwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2015-12-26Blizzard$1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY (legacy zone code NMZ539), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
2015-11-27Ice Storm$100,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2015 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY (legacy zone code NMZ539), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2015-05-15Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars)1, 1CAPITANB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2014-06-07Hail2.75 in$50,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)0, 0(4CR)CORONAB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2012-08-18Thunderstorm Wind76 kt (87 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)0, 0OSCUROB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2012-06-04Wildfire$26,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0Storm Events area SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (legacy zone code NMZ526), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2008-07-26Flood$25,000,000 property; $0 crops (2008 dollars)1, 0HOLLYWOOD to RUIDOSOB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (713 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Avalanche0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01994 to 2023 (30 years)see B1-f0.01 is NRI's minimum avalanche frequency for a county in an avalanche susceptibility zone; NRI records no avalanche here, so the descriptor reflects the floor, not local events.
Cold Wave0.124event-days per yearabout 0.124 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)2.352005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought108event-days per yearabout 108 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 11 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (36.7%)3,4092000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00109annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.109%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail0.654events per yearabout 0.65 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)24.9 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0.368event-days per yearabout 0.368 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)72005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.01events per yearabout 1 in 100 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)01851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.267event-days per yearabout 0.267 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)181946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.32event-days per yearabout 2.32 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)651996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide1.8events per year (modeled)about 1.8 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning59.2days per year with a strikeabout 59.2 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind0.219events per yearabout 1 in 5 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)91986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.446events per yearabout 1 in 2 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Volcanic Activity0.0001annual probabilityabout 1 in 10,000 yearsUnlikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Wildfire0.0141annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 1.41%LikelyStorm Events records in 10 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (33.3%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather8.37event-days per yearabout 8.37 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)1592005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202563302.1
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20259300.3
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202528300.933
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20256300.2
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202511300.367
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20253300.1

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Avalanche8 of 918.721.423.8Very Low 8, Not Applicable 1
Cold Wave9 of 920.023.628.5Relatively Low 9
Drought3 of 969.670.282.6Relatively Low 1, Very Low 2, No Rating 6
Earthquake9 of 96.615.434.1Very Low 9
Hail9 of 948.768.273.7Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 6
Heat Wave9 of 91.92.25.2Very Low 9
Hurricane9 of 921.327.632.7Very Low 9
Ice Storm9 of 965.884.790.7Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 1
Inland Flooding9 of 950.194.098.7Very High 3, Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 3
Landslide9 of 973.388.196.5Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 7, Very Low 1
Lightning9 of 986.997.999.1Very High 7, Relatively High 2
Strong Wind9 of 924.645.558.3Relatively Moderate 3, Relatively Low 6
Tornado9 of 96.018.923.4Very Low 9
Volcanic Activity9 of 942.655.879.5Very Low 9
Wildfire9 of 997.499.499.8Very High 8, Relatively High 1
Winter Weather9 of 986.695.798.3Very High 4, Relatively High 5

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Lincoln CountyCountyApproved, expires 2029-03-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 1$25,483,041.330 total; 0 since its planIncludes $61,949 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4529-NM).
Capitan villageVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$23,118.0717 total; 1 since its plan
Carrizozo townVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$57,106.328 total; 1 since its plan
Corona villageVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0no Public Assistance recorded3 total; 0 since its plan
Ruidoso Downs cityCityApproved, expires 2029-03-17FMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 2$831,427.8622 total; 5 since its plan
Ruidoso villageVillageApproved, expires 2029-03-17FMA RL 3, SRL 6; any 32$74,832,057.4948 total; 32 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2024-03-18county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Avalanche$709,485n/aunder 1$1n/a$123under 0.0001%
Cold Wave$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$300$1,642$66,581under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$376,603n/an/a$1,579n/a0.419% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$10,692,385,059n/a20,269$26,458n/a$4,9290.000247%
Hail$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$67,758$583$48,9280.00102%$0
Heat Wave$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$2$185$7,754under 0.0001%
Hurricane$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$2,139$376$1under 0.0001%
Ice Storm$6,643,440,068n/a20,041$132,267n/a$7,3610.00199%
Inland Flooding$6,642,967,558$15,265,1041,011$10,670,178$149,549$1,067,052n/a (see note)$2,307,000$11,439,158.74NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,122,139,858n/a2,826$5,946n/a$1,1110.00053%$60,512,000$11,439,158.74
Lightning$6,643,440,068n/a20,041$2,528n/a$636,071under 0.0001%
Strong Wind$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$27,309$311$68,7970.000411%$0$40,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 2 zone-level High Wind records ($40,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$43,232$298$3,2490.000651%$0
Volcanic Activity$6,643,440,068n/a20,041$1n/a$6under 0.0001%
Wildfire$3,024,932,534$17,652,91012,907$14,010,395$516$523,9910.463%$23,075,000$38,215,924.41
Winter Weather$6,643,440,068$20,418,31820,041$108,387$869$94,4630.00163%$0

Totals since 2024-03-18 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 71 county-coded records, 62 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $62,819,000; 61 zone-level records, 25 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $23,115,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $49,655,083.15 on 6 counted declarations, 2 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population20,041
Building value (total, not at risk)$6,643,440,068
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$20,418,318
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$25,252,807
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$2,530,418
Social vulnerability ratingVery High
Community resilience ratingVery Low
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)4Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)7
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition34Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition6

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total4734635020
of which: Ruidoso village3631532019
of which: Ruidoso Downs city1121200
of which: Lincoln County (unincorporated area)0010101

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Lincoln County3501220010101
Capitan village3500980000000
Carrizozo town3501100000000
Corona village3500990000000
Ruidoso Downs city3500341121200
Ruidoso village3500333631532019

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential3528429017
2 to 4 unit residential1121200
other residential0131303
non-residential0010100
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 30 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Lincoln County, NM: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 35027). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nm/35027/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]