Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Wells County, ND

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
38103
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2028-12-06. Plan: Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295), approved 2023-12-07.

Since the plan was approved on 2023-12-07: 1 new hazard declaration (1 incident) and 30 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Cold Wave ($2,320,882 a year), Inland Flooding ($690,574) and Hail ($372,389).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2028-12-06
Plan:
Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)
Approved:
2023-12-07
Days to expiry:
798

What changed since your last plan (approved 2023-12-07)

New federal declarations:
1 new hazard declaration (1 incident): DR-4888-ND (Severe Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds)
Storm Events records since approval:
30 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 0, SRL 0 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 0
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiry
Wells CountyCountyApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Bowdon cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Cathay cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Fessenden cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Hamberg cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Harvey cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Hurdsfield cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798
Sykeston cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06Eddy and Wells County, ND Hazard Mitigation Plan 2023 (FEMA plan 109295)2023-12-072028-12-06798

Plan 109295 covers 3 other participants: Eddy County; New Rockford city (Eddy County); Sheyenne city (Eddy County).

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countWhy this hazard can be left outNRI Not Applicable, no declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996Storm Events coverage note
1Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$467$1,195,738$1,124,676$2,320,88238
2Inland FloodingVery LowVery Low$681,264$8,937$373$690,57417
3HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$284,773$75,521$12,095$372,389105
4TornadoVery LowVery Low$136,822$5,011$152,686$294,5198
5Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$76,454$364$115,369$192,188114
6Strong WindVery LowRelatively Low$44,215$65,470$29,768$139,453104Includes 49 High Wind records (a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7Ice StormRelatively LowRelatively Low$107,092n/a$24,325$131,4171
8WildfireVery LowVery Low$48,596$94$1,622$50,3120Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
9DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$31,470n/a$31,4709
10Heat WaveVery LowVery Low$146$1$14,990$15,1371
11LightningVery LowVery Low$1,527n/a$2,657$4,1841
12EarthquakeVery LowVery Low$1,489n/a$419$1,908Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
13LandslideVery LowVery Low$8n/a$175$1830Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
HurricaneNot ApplicableNot Applicable0NRI rates hurricane Not Applicable for this county, and no counted federal declaration for this county names it (EM-3247-ND names it but is not counted as a local occurrence; see B1-d).No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9600 (Very Low, 6.5); tract 9598 (Very Low, 6.3)
Hurricaneno tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Landslidetract 9600 (Relatively Low, 84.8); tract 9598 (Very Low, 47.3)
Tornadotract 9600 (Relatively High, 76.4); tract 9598 (Relatively Moderate, 59.8)
Wildfiretract 9600 (Relatively Moderate, 91.0); tract 9598 (Relatively Low, 86.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9600 is Census Tract 9600). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill38 records, 1996 to 2025 (38 zone-level)1 day to 11 days (median 2 days); 33 with a recorded value11 consecutive days, 2021-02-05 to 2021-02-15, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage0
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)9 records, 2021 (9 zone-level)260 days; 1 with a recorded value260 days (about 8.5 months), 2021-04-13 to 2021-12-28, a run of 9 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)122 records, 1963 to 20250.75 in to 3.5 in (median 1 in); 122 with a recorded value3.5 in hail, 2018-06-28; same size also recorded on 2007-06-17Hail, 2015-06-20, $750,000 property; $400,000 crops (2015 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Harvey city (27 records), Fessenden city (15 records), Hamberg city (9 records), Bowdon city (7 records), Hurdsfield city (4 records), Cathay city (2 records), Sykeston city (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)1 record, 2011 (1 zone-level)4 days; 1 with a recorded value4 consecutive days, 2011-07-16 to 2011-07-19, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson0Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2023 (1 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2023-12-26, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2023 dollars); NWS zone NDZ023Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)17 records, 1999 to 2023 (2 zone-level)Flood, 2009-04-01, $2,400,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Sykeston city (5 records), Hurdsfield city (4 records), Harvey city (2 records), Bowdon city (1 record), Cathay city (1 record), Fessenden city (1 record), Hamberg city (1 record). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)1 record, 2000No damage or casualties reported in 1 record.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Harvey city (1 record).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)49 records, 1996 to 2026 (49 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 64 kt (74 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 49 with a recorded value64 kt (74 mph), measurement type not recorded, High Wind, 1999-11-01; NWS zone NDZ023High Wind, 2009-01-31, $60,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2009 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)64 records, 1957 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 79 kt (91 mph) (median 56 kt (64 mph)); 57 with a recorded value79 kt (91 mph) measured gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2018-07-08Thunderstorm Wind, 2010-05-24, $200,000 property; $0 crops (2010 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Harvey city (16 records), Sykeston city (8 records), Fessenden city (7 records), Cathay city (5 records), Hurdsfield city (2 records), Bowdon city (1 record), Hamberg city (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)25 records, 1952 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF3 (median F/EF0); 23 with a recorded valueF3 tornado, 1952-06-15, 1.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide, $25,000 property; crops not recorded (1952 dollars), 1 direct injuryTornado, 1953-07-06, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1953 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Bowdon city (2 records), Cathay city (1 record), Fessenden city (1 record), Harvey city (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)114 records, 1996 to 2026 (114 zone-level)Blizzard, 1997-01-09, $1,530,000 property; crops not reported (1997 dollars); NWS zone NDZ023Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 29 declarations covering 26 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2025-09-112025-06-20DR-4888-NDMajor disasterSevere Storm, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line WindsStrong Wind; Tornadono Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2023-07-052023-04-10DR-4717-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$122,378.17in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2023-02-052022-11-09DR-4686-NDMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Straight-Line WindsWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Strong Wind$20,220.04in the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2022-07-132022-04-22DR-4660-NDMajor disasterSevere Winter Storm and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter Weather$32,970.45within last 5 years
2020-10-022020-06-29DR-4565-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$26,729.58
2020-07-092020-04-01DR-4553-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$72,464.90
2020-04-012020-01-20DR-4509-NDMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$3,374.04
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3477-NDEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4509
2020-01-212019-10-09DR-4475-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$511,162.93
2013-07-122013-05-17DR-4128-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$313,580.83
2013-05-292013-04-22DR-4118-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$374,363.97
2011-05-102011-02-14DR-1981-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$2,003,229.22
2010-04-302010-02-26DR-1907-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Flooding$198,895.85
2010-04-212010-04-01DR-1901-NDMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
2009-03-242009-03-13DR-1829-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Flooding$1,525,946.97
2005-09-132005-08-29EM-3247-NDEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2001-05-282001-03-01DR-1376-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, & Ground SaturationInland Flooding$1,108,672.66
2000-06-272000-04-05DR-1334-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding and Ground SaturationInland Flooding$200,899.87
1999-06-081999-03-01DR-1279-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, Snow, Ice, Ground Saturation, Lanslides, Mudslides, and TorInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Landslide, Tornado$185,709.53
1997-04-071997-02-28DR-1174-NDMajor disasterSevere Flooding,Severe Winter Storms, Snowmelt, Spring RainsInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Wildfire, Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1997-01-121997-01-03DR-1157-NDMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and Blizzard ConditionsWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1996-06-051996-03-12DR-1118-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms,Flooding, & Ice JamsInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1995-05-161995-03-01DR-1050-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and Ground SaturationInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1994-07-011994-03-05DR-1032-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms, FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1993-07-261993-06-22DR-1001-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1979-04-261979-04-26DR-581-NDMajor disasterSevere Storms, Snowmelt & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1975-05-241975-05-24DR-469-NDMajor disasterFlooding from Rains & SnowmeltInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1974-05-141974-05-14DR-434-NDMajor disasterHeavy Rains, Snowmelt & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1969-04-181969-04-18DR-256-NDMajor disasterFloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1957-06-221957-06-22DR-79-NDMajor disasterTornadoTornado

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

Public Assistance not placed in any North Dakota county: 1 row, $23,693.61; listed on the North Dakota state page.

Source: 3

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave38303001996 to 2026-06-30
Drought9003001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail1225313001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Ice Storm1101001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding170132201996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind11315227211955 to 2026-06-30Includes 49 High Wind records.
Tornado25102211950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Winter Weather1145719501996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2023-12-26Ice Storm$250,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2023 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2021-04-13Drought$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2021-02-05Extreme Cold/Wind Chill$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2021 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
2018-07-08Thunderstorm Wind79 kt (91 mph) measured gust$0 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0CATHAYB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2018-06-28Hail3.5 in$40,000 property; $10,000 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0HARVEYB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2015-06-20Hail2 in$750,000 property; $400,000 crops (2015 dollars)0, 0HARVEYB1-c most damaging: Hail
2011-07-16Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2011 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2009-04-01Flood$2,400,000 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)0, 0HARVEY ARPT to HURDSFIELDB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
1999-11-01High Wind64 kt (74 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
1997-03-05Winter Weather$15,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1997 dollars)1, 1NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
1997-01-09Blizzard$1,530,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 1997 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NDZ023 (WELLS), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleet
1952-06-15TornadoF3, 1.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 33 yd wide$25,000 property; crops not recorded (1952 dollars)0, 1location not recordeddeaths or injuries recorded

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (441 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave20.6event-days per yearabout 20.6 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 16 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (53.3%)3922005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought14.1event-days per yearabout 14.1 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)3572000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.000093annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.0093%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.48events per yearabout 2.48 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)94.3 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave1.32event-days per yearabout 1.32 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)192005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricaneevents per year1851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNot Applicable in NRI for this county; no descriptor.
Ice Storm0.701event-days per yearabout 0.701 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)481946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding0.571event-days per yearabout 0.571 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)161996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.131events per year (modeled)about 1 in 8 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning28.2days per year with a strikeabout 28.2 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.27events per yearabout 1.27 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)491986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.522events per yearabout 0.52 per yearLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.000594annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0594%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather21.6event-days per yearabout 21.6 days per yearHighly likelyStorm Events event-days in 29 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (96.7%)4112005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202566302.2
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 202510300.333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202534301.13
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202517300.567
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20252300.0667

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave2 of 296.598.199.7Very High 2
Drought2 of 272.782.592.3Relatively Moderate 1, Very Low 1
Earthquake2 of 26.36.46.5Very Low 2
Hail2 of 292.395.097.8Relatively High 2
Heat Wave2 of 29.510.611.8Very Low 2
Hurricane0 of 2Not Applicable 2
Ice Storm2 of 294.595.596.4Relatively High 2
Inland Flooding2 of 212.127.643.1Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Landslide2 of 247.366.184.8Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Lightning2 of 212.614.616.6Very Low 2
Strong Wind2 of 267.880.292.7Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Tornado2 of 259.868.176.4Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 1
Wildfire2 of 286.888.991.0Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 1
Winter Weather2 of 299.599.799.8Very High 2

Cold Wave: Agriculture is 52% of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

This county has 2 census tracts; the minimum, median and maximum come from those 2.

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Wells CountyCountyApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$6,461,833.210 total; 0 since its planIncludes $3,374.04 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4509-ND).
Bowdon cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$16,212.9811 total; 0 since its plan
Cathay cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$63,836.829 total; 0 since its plan
Fessenden cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$11,690.2624 total; 3 since its plan
Hamberg cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$3,393.7511 total; 0 since its plan
Harvey cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$79,630.5547 total; 2 since its plan
Hurdsfield cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$7,109.6310 total; 1 since its plan
Sykeston cityCityApproved, expires 2028-12-06FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$29,516.0614 total; 4 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2023-12-07county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$1,431,587,383$268,146,5003,976$467$1,195,738$1,124,676under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$143,038,632n/an/a$31,470n/a0.022% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$2,384,709,934n/a3,982$1,489n/a$419under 0.0001%
Hail$1,431,587,383$268,146,5003,976$284,773$75,521$12,0950.0199%$500,000
Heat Wave$1,431,587,383$268,146,5003,976$146$1$14,990under 0.0001%
HurricaneNot Applicable in NRI for this county
Ice Storm$1,431,587,383n/a3,976$107,092n/a$24,3250.00748%$250,000
Inland Flooding$1,431,378,910$3,013,01117$681,264$8,937$373n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$3,967,426n/a11$8n/a$1750.000207%
Lightning$1,431,587,383n/a3,976$1,527n/a$2,6570.000107%
Strong Wind$1,431,587,383$268,146,5003,976$44,215$65,470$29,7680.00309%$225,000$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Tornado$1,431,587,383$268,146,5003,976$136,822$5,011$152,6860.00956%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Wildfire$311,198,859$58,187,9061,075$48,596$94$1,6220.0156%
Winter Weather$1,431,587,383$268,146,5003,976$76,454$364$115,3690.00534%$0

Totals since 2023-12-07 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 18 county-coded records, 18 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $725,000; 12 zone-level records, 12 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $250,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: none recorded on the 1 counted declaration.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population3,976
Building value (total, not at risk)$1,431,587,383
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$268,146,500
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Very Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$2,765,460
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$1,479,155
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Moderate
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)0
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition0

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county total and NFIP communities

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total0000000

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Wells County3853740000000
Bowdon city3801590000000
Cathay city3854140000000
Fessenden city3802260000000
Hamberg city3854150000000
Harvey city3802310000000
Hurdsfield city3807180000000
Sykeston city3802070000000

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group: 0 in every occupancy group.

Sources: 1, 4

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 0 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 0 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Wells County, ND: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 38103). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nd/38103/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]