Hazard Plain Automated baseline

New Hanover County, NC

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
37129
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2031-04-20. Plan: Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751), approved 2026-04-21.

Since the plan was approved on 2026-04-21: no new hazard declaration and 6 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Hurricane ($181,420,211 a year), Inland Flooding ($46,006,218) and Tornado ($8,936,027).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2031-04-20
Plan:
Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)
Approved:
2026-04-21
Days to expiry:
1,663

What changed since your last plan (approved 2026-04-21)

New federal declarations:
none
Storm Events records since approval:
6 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 45, SRL 172 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 1,381
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
New Hanover CountyCountyApproved, expires 2031-04-20Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)2026-04-212031-04-201,663this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-01
Carolina Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-20Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)2026-04-212031-04-201,663this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-01
Kure Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-20Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)2026-04-212031-04-201,663this jurisdiction approved 2026-08-03
Wilmington cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-20Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)2026-04-212031-04-201,663this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-19
Wrightsville Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-20Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)2026-04-212031-04-201,663this jurisdiction approved 2026-05-01
Cape Fear Public AuthoritySpecial DistrictApproved, expires 2031-04-20Southeastern NC Regional (FEMA plan 111751)2026-04-212031-04-201,663this jurisdiction approved 2026-06-23

Plan 111751 lists 35 other participants not on this page, 2 of them not covered by it yet (named in the Excel file).

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1HurricaneVery HighVery High$171,134,900$102,640$10,182,671$181,420,21113Includes 1 Tropical Depression record (outside NRI's Hurricane definition).
2Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$43,971,995$14,295$2,019,928$46,006,218175
3TornadoRelatively HighRelatively High$3,083,241$125$5,852,661$8,936,02726
4Coastal FloodingRelatively HighRelatively High$6,168,724n/a$520,213$6,688,93911
5LightningVery HighVery High$91,045n/a$3,278,214$3,369,25943
6Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$296$14$2,526,946$2,527,2554
7Cold WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$19,009$2,291$2,245,053$2,266,3532Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
8EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,674,099n/a$486,051$2,160,151Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
9Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$1,125,587n/a$95,090$1,220,6761
10Winter WeatherRelatively HighVery High$122,692$5$876,321$999,0197
11Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$146,065$4,213$602,315$752,593127Includes 6 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
12WildfireRelatively LowRelatively Low$617,861$25$57,373$675,2591
13HailVery LowVery Low$83,339$829$6,888$91,05687
14DroughtVery LowVery Lown/a$4,080n/a$4,0802
15LandslideVery LowVery Low$125n/a$1$1260Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.
TsunamiInsufficient DataInsufficient Datan/an/an/an/a0No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local landslide and tsunami records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Coastal Flooding and Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 115.02 (Relatively Moderate, 80.6); tract 113 (Relatively Moderate, 79.5); tract 106 (Relatively Low, 73.4)
Hurricanetract 123 (Very High, 100.0); tract 117.03 (Very High, 99.9); tract 106 (Very High, 99.9)
Landslidetract 115.03 (Very Low, 74.3); tract 123 (Very Low, 72.1); tract 117.03 (Very Low, 62.3)
Tornadotract 123 (Relatively High, 89.8); tract 121.06 (Relatively High, 83.6); tract 117.03 (Relatively High, 80.8)
Tsunamino tract has a National Risk Index rating for this hazard
Wildfiretract 123 (Relatively Moderate, 95.3); tract 115.03 (Relatively Moderate, 93.4); tract 116.08 (Relatively Moderate, 92.8)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 115.02 is Census Tract 115.02). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Coastal Flood, Storm Surge/Tidenone in data (flood depth: FIRM)11 records, 1996 to 2023 (9 zone-level)No damage reported in 11 records.Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wilmington city (1 record), Wrightsville Beach town (1 record). Zone-level records (9) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map.
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill0
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage2 records, 2017 (2 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 2 records.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)2 records, 2011 (2 zone-level)48 days; 1 with a recorded value48 days (about 1.6 months), 2011-06-14 to 2011-07-31, a run of 2 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)112 records, 1957 to 20240.75 in to 2.5 in (median 1 in); 112 with a recorded value2.5 in hail, 1971-06-16Hail, 2011-05-10, $3,000 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wilmington city (46 records), Carolina Beach town (7 records), Kure Beach town (1 record), Wrightsville Beach town (1 record).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)4 records, 2011 to 2015 (4 zone-level)2 days to 13 days (median 3 days); 4 with a recorded value13 consecutive days, 2015-06-14 to 2015-06-26, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson13 records, 2011 to 2023 (13 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2018-09-14 to 2018-09-15, category 1, $1,000,000,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars), 1 direct injury (reported for the zone); NWS zone NCZ107Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)1 record, 2015 (1 zone-level)No damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)175 records, 1996 to 2025Flash Flood, 2018-09-16, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wilmington city (46 records), Carolina Beach town (18 records), Kure Beach town (1 record), Wrightsville Beach town (1 record).Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)43 records, 1996 to 2026Lightning, 2020-08-05, $2,000 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars), 2 direct deathsLightning, 2026-06-28, $300,000 property; $0 crops (2026 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wilmington city (14 records), Carolina Beach town (3 records), Wrightsville Beach town (3 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)8 records, 2012 to 2024 (8 zone-level)43 kt (49 mph) to 61 kt (70 mph) (median 53 kt (61 mph)); 8 with a recorded value61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2019-04-26; NWS zone NCZ107Strong Wind, 2013-01-31, $15,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2013 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)181 records, 1956 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 87 kt (100 mph) (median 52 kt (60 mph)); 145 with a recorded value87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2003-05-31Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wilmington city (43 records), Wrightsville Beach town (10 records), Kure Beach town (2 records), Carolina Beach town (1 record).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)33 records, 1954 to 2025F/EF0 to F/EF1 (median F/EF0); 33 with a recorded valueF1 tornado, 1998-01-08, 0.2 mi within this county, 10 yd wide, $175,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars), 3 direct injuriesTornado, 2019-09-05, $500,000 property; $0 crops (2019 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Wilmington city (5 records), Carolina Beach town (1 record).Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Tsunaminone (count and damage only)0
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2012 (1 zone-level)Wildfire, 2012-04-16, $2,500 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars); NWS zone NCZ107Countywide (zone-level records).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)7 records, 2014 to 2026 (7 zone-level)No damage reported in 7 records.Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow, lightning and tsunami.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 32 declarations covering 22 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-21EM-3637-NCEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2024-10-192024-09-16DR-4837-NCMajor disasterPotential Tropical Cyclone EightHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding$952,885.75within last 5 years
2024-09-262024-09-25EM-3617-NCEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslideno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2024-08-062024-08-05EM-3608-NCEmergencyTropical Storm DebbyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2022-10-012022-09-28EM-3586-NCEmergencyHurricane IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2020-10-142020-07-31DR-4568-NCMajor disasterHurricane IsaiasHurricane$7,762,255.03
2020-08-022020-07-31EM-3534-NCEmergencyHurricane IsaiasHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4568
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4487-NCMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$223,766.99
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3471-NCEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4487
2019-10-042019-09-01DR-4465-NCMajor disasterHurricane DorianHurricane$1,891,111.24
2019-09-032019-09-01EM-3423-NCEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4465
2018-09-142018-09-07DR-4393-NCMajor disasterHurricane FlorenceHurricane$61,353,686.61
2018-09-102018-09-07EM-3401-NCEmergencyHurricane FlorenceHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4393
2016-10-102016-10-04DR-4285-NCMajor disasterHurricane MatthewHurricane$3,752,068.43
2016-10-072016-10-04EM-3380-NCEmergencyHurricane MatthewHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4285
2011-08-312011-08-25DR-4019-NCMajor disasterHurricane IreneHurricane$1,613,558.51
2011-08-252011-08-25EM-3327-NCEmergencyHurricane IreneHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4019
2010-10-142010-09-27DR-1942-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, and Straight-Line WindsInland Flooding; Strong WindPA not declared for this county
2010-09-012010-09-01EM-3314-NCEmergencyHurricane EarlHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2008-10-082008-09-04DR-1801-NCMajor disasterTropical Storm HannaHurricane$688,280.26
2005-10-072005-09-11DR-1608-NCMajor disasterHurricane OpheliaHurricane$878,825.27
2005-09-142005-09-11EM-3254-NCEmergencyHurricane OpheliaHurricane$790,182.49same incident as DR-1608
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3222-NCEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-09-182003-09-18DR-1490-NCMajor disasterHurricane IsabelHurricane$588,597.20
1999-09-161999-09-15DR-1292-NCMajor disasterHurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsHurricane$9,940,660.48
1999-09-151999-09-15EM-3146-NCEmergencyHurricane Floyd Emergency DeclarationsHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1292
1999-09-011999-08-29EM-3141-NCEmergencyHurricane DennisHurricane$476,788.16
1998-08-271998-08-20DR-1240-NCMajor disasterHurricane BonnieHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1996-09-061996-09-05DR-1134-NCMajor disasterHurricane FranHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1996-07-181996-07-10DR-1127-NCMajor disasterHurricane BerthaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-171993-03-13EM-3110-NCEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1984-09-211984-09-11DR-724-NCMajor disasterHurricane DianaHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-10-131964-10-13DR-179-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-161962-03-16DR-130-NCMajor disasterSevere Storm, High Tides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Coastal Flooding
1960-09-161960-09-16DR-107-NCMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1958-10-011958-10-01DR-87-NCMajor disasterHurricane & Severe StormHurricane
1956-04-241956-04-24DR-56-NCMajor disasterSevere StormHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1955-08-131955-08-13DR-37-NCMajor disasterHurricanesHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1954-10-171954-10-17DR-28-NCMajor disasterHurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

1 Fire Management declaration (1986-05-10 to 1986-05-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Coastal Flooding11004001996 to 2026-06-30
Cold Wave2000001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 2 Frost/Freeze records.
Drought2000001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail112003001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane130031901996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Tropical Depression record.
Ice Storm1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding1750120301996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning43207001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind1894435101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 6 High Wind and 2 Strong Wind records.
Tornado33012001950 to 2026-06-30
Tsunami0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Wildfire1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather7024201996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2022-07-03Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2022 dollars)1, 0MASONBOROwithin last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2020-08-05Lightning$2,000 property; $0 crops (2020 dollars)2, 0WILMINGTONdeaths or injuries recorded
2019-04-26High Wind61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust$10,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2019 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ107 (INLAND NEW HANOVER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2018-09-16Flash Flood$2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0KIRKLAND to CAROLINA BEACHB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2018-09-14Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')category 1$1,000,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2018 dollars)0, 1NWS zone NCZ107 (INLAND NEW HANOVER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2015-06-14Heatdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NCZ108 (COASTAL NEW HANOVER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2012-04-16Wildfire$2,500 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2012 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ107 (INLAND NEW HANOVER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Wildfire
2011-06-14Droughtdamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NCZ108 (COASTAL NEW HANOVER), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Drought
2009-09-25Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2009 dollars)1, 1WRIGHTSVILLE BEACHdeaths or injuries recorded
2003-05-31Thunderstorm Wind87 kt (100 mph) estimated gust$750,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars)0, 0WILMINGTON to WRIGHTSVILLE BEACHB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1998-01-08TornadoF1, 0.2 mi within this county, 10 yd wide$175,000 property; crops not reported (1998 dollars)0, 3WILMINGTONB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1971-06-16Hail2.5 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (593 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Coastal Flooding3.69events per year at a location (modeled)about 3.7 per year at a given location in the countyHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from NRI: the rate at a location is 1 or more a year, so the county rate is at least that.
Cold Wave0.472event-days per yearabout 0.472 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)6.042005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events cold wave record, 1996 to 2025.
Drought5.65event-days per yearabout 5.65 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)1542000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00127annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.127%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail2.18events per yearabout 2.18 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)85.8 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave7.67event-days per yearabout 7.67 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)81.82005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.374events per yearabout 1 in 3 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1231851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.693event-days per yearabout 0.693 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)321946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.46event-days per yearabout 2.46 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)691996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.0275events per year (modeled)about 1 in 36 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning56.5days per year with a strikeabout 56.5 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.45events per yearabout 1.45 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)371986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.157events per yearabout 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Tsunamiannual probability at the most exposed location (used in place of a county value)Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Wildfire0.000878annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.0878%PossibleStorm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Winter Weather1.49event-days per yearabout 1.49 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 4 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (13.3%)18.62005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202542301.4
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20253300.1
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025100303.33
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 202514300.467
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20250300
TornadoEF0-11996 to 202526300.867
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Coastal Flooding45 of 5470.090.499.7Very High 3, Relatively High 9, Relatively Moderate 14, Relatively Low 10, Very Low 9, No Rating 9
Cold Wave54 of 5415.839.762.6Relatively Moderate 19, Relatively Low 34, Very Low 1
Drought21 of 5467.168.779.4Relatively Low 2, Very Low 19, No Rating 33
Earthquake54 of 5412.948.280.6Relatively Moderate 2, Relatively Low 38, Very Low 14
Hail54 of 541.725.542.2Relatively Low 2, Very Low 52
Heat Wave54 of 541.649.275.9Relatively Moderate 22, Relatively Low 31, Very Low 1
Hurricane54 of 5480.898.8100.0Very High 45, Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 1
Ice Storm54 of 5411.882.794.7Relatively High 6, Relatively Moderate 43, Relatively Low 4, Very Low 1
Inland Flooding54 of 540.456.897.4Very High 1, Relatively High 11, Relatively Moderate 21, Relatively Low 17, Very Low 4
Landslide52 of 5412.233.274.3Very Low 52, No Rating 2
Lightning54 of 540.591.499.0Very High 18, Relatively High 31, Relatively Moderate 4, Very Low 1
Strong Wind54 of 541.939.066.0Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 47, Very Low 1
Tornado54 of 545.965.689.8Relatively High 16, Relatively Moderate 34, Relatively Low 3, Very Low 1
Tsunami0 of 54Insufficient Data 54
Wildfire53 of 5421.679.595.3Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 31, Very Low 15, No Rating 1
Winter Weather54 of 5416.788.896.9Very High 5, Relatively High 41, Relatively Moderate 7, Very Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
New Hanover CountyCountyApproved, expires 2031-04-20FMA RL 11, SRL 22; any 308$32,220,710.900 total; 0 since its planIncludes $205,967.88 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4487-NC).
Carolina Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-20FMA RL 15, SRL 63; any 350$4,924,516.9630 total; 0 since its plan
Kure Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-20FMA RL 4, SRL 24; any 92$1,318,897.784 total; 0 since its plan
Wilmington cityCityApproved, expires 2031-04-20FMA RL 5, SRL 10; any 87$35,461,790.37155 total; 1 since its plan
Wrightsville Beach townTownApproved, expires 2031-04-20FMA RL 10, SRL 53; any 544$1,000,375.8416 total; 0 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2026-04-21county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Coastal Flooding$10,250,052,960n/a29,661$6,168,724n/a$520,2130.0602%
Cold Wave$57,542,645,386$6,213,598225,344$19,009$2,291$2,245,053under 0.0001%
Droughtn/a$4,962,145n/an/a$4,080n/a0.0822% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$98,597,657,748n/a225,702$1,674,099n/a$486,0510.0017%
Hail$57,542,682,167$6,213,598225,344$83,339$829$6,8880.000145%
Heat Wave$57,542,645,386$6,213,598225,344$296$14$2,526,946under 0.0001%
Hurricane$57,542,142,213$6,213,598225,341$171,134,900$102,640$10,182,6710.297%
Ice Storm$57,180,452,474n/a223,989$1,125,587n/a$95,0900.00197%
Inland Flooding$57,459,338,578$409,49818,438$43,971,995$14,295$2,019,928n/a (see note)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$119,706,459n/a377$125n/a$10.000104%
Lightning$57,542,682,167n/a225,344$91,045n/a$3,278,2140.000158%$310,000
Strong Wind$57,542,682,167$6,213,598225,344$146,065$4,213$602,3150.000254%$0
Tornado$57,542,682,167$6,213,598225,344$3,083,241$125$5,852,6610.00536%
Tsunamin/an/an/an/an/an/aNRI publishes no building exposure for this county
Wildfire$8,306,661,205$2,504,11847,403$617,861$25$57,3730.00744%
Winter Weather$57,542,645,386$6,213,598225,344$122,692$5$876,3210.000213%

Totals since 2026-04-21 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 6 county-coded records, 6 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $310,000; 0 zone-level records, 0 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: no counted declaration since the plan.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population225,344
Building value (total, not at risk)$57,542,682,167
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$6,213,598
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively High
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$228,367,495
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$28,749,725
Social vulnerability ratingVery Low
Community resilience ratingVery High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)45Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)172
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition1,348Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition146

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total451721,3481461,38127755
of which: New Hanover County (unincorporated area)1122302203082169
of which: Kure Beach town424922492034
of which: Wilmington city51083887263
of which: Carolina Beach town15633365035013165
of which: Wrightsville Beach town10535354454410324
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0020200

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
New Hanover County3701681122302203082169
Carolina Beach town37534715633365035013165
Kure Beach town370170424922492034
Wilmington city37017151083887263
Wrightsville Beach town37536110535354454410324

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential301029288295120576
2 to 4 unit residential72216321166171
other residential63217630180386
non-residential216811384322
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 13 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 1,316 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). New Hanover County, NC: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 37129). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nc/37129/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]