Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Haywood County, NC

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
37087
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2027-09-12. Plan: Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483), approved 2022-09-13.

Since the plan was approved on 2022-09-13: 4 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): EM-3586-NC (Hurricane Ian), EM-3617-NC (Hurricane Helene), DR-4827-NC (Tropical Storm Helene), EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm).

NOAA Storm Events records since that date: 45 records (data through 2026-06-30).

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($19,682,369 a year), Cold Wave ($6,990,579) and Tornado ($1,371,596).

Repetitive-loss flood properties now: FMA RL 24, SRL 13 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 80.

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2027-09-12
Plan:
Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483)
Approved:
2022-09-13
Days to expiry:
347
Update underway:
none recorded in FEMA's plan tracker

What changed since your last plan (approved 2022-09-13)

New federal declarations:
4 new hazard declarations (3 incidents): EM-3586-NC (Hurricane Ian), EM-3617-NC (Hurricane Helene), DR-4827-NC (Tropical Storm Helene), EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
45 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 24, SRL 13 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 80
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Haywood County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2027-09-12Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483)2022-09-132027-09-12347
Canton townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483)2022-09-132027-09-12347this jurisdiction approved 2022-11-08
Clyde townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483)2022-09-132027-09-12347
Maggie Valley townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483)2022-09-132027-09-12347this jurisdiction approved 2022-11-08
Waynesville townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12Smoky Mountain Regional (FEMA plan 108483)2022-09-132027-09-12347this jurisdiction approved 2022-11-08

Plan 108483 covers 15 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$16,802,950$50,521$2,828,898$19,682,36934
2Cold WaveRelatively HighRelatively High$657$224,322$6,765,600$6,990,57923Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
3TornadoRelatively LowRelatively Low$613,117$392$758,087$1,371,5961
4Strong WindRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$148,211$21,700$676,327$846,238100Includes 31 High Wind and 7 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
5EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$647,829n/a$111,018$758,847Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6LightningRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$33,321n/a$542,564$575,8865
7LandslideRelatively HighRelatively Moderate$149,101n/a$396,341$545,4427
8Ice StormRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$260,814n/a$10,430$271,2444
9HailRelatively LowRelatively Low$108,379$50,701$89,982$249,06159
10HurricaneVery LowRelatively Low$125,081$5,925$6,688$137,6942
11DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$84,262n/a$84,26237
12Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$6,034$286$76,846$83,167286Includes 4 Sleet records (outside NRI's Winter Weather definition).
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$42,058$129$23,245$65,4311
14Heat WaveNo RatingNo Expected Annual Losses$0$0$0$00No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 9210 (Relatively Low, 74.0); tract 9202.02 (Relatively Low, 70.3); tract 9212.01 (Relatively Low, 67.8)
Hurricanetract 9210 (Relatively Low, 54.5); tract 9213.01 (Relatively Low, 54.0); tract 9213.02 (Relatively Low, 53.5)
Landslidetract 9201.02 (Relatively High, 99.8); tract 9213.01 (Relatively High, 99.6); tract 9213.02 (Relatively High, 99.6)
Tornadotract 9202.02 (Relatively Moderate, 64.0); tract 9213.02 (Relatively Moderate, 63.2); tract 9210 (Relatively Moderate, 60.5)
Wildfiretract 9201.02 (Relatively Low, 88.1); tract 9213.02 (Relatively Low, 83.9); tract 9213.01 (Relatively Low, 80.9)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 9210 is Census Tract 9210). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill22 records, 1997 to 2026 (22 zone-level)1 day to 31 days (median 2 days); 22 with a recorded valueDecember 2000 (1 monthly summary record), zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Wind chill: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2007 (1 zone-level)Frost/Freeze, 2007-04-08, $2,000,000 crop damage (2007 dollars); NWS zone NCZ052Countywide (zone-level records).Temperature: in event narratives only (local data needed).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)37 records, 1998 to 2026 (37 zone-level)30 days to 276 days (median 76.5 days); 12 with a recorded value276 days (9 months), 2007-05-01 to 2008-01-31, a run of 9 consecutive Storm Events drought records, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)63 records, 1972 to 20230.75 in to 1.75 in (median 1 in); 63 with a recorded value1.75 in hail, 2014-07-27; same size also recorded on 1985-07-10, 2000-06-26, 2002-06-04, 2006-04-03, 2006-05-30, 2011-04-09Hail, 2004-05-08, $50,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Waynesville town (20 records), Canton town (11 records), Clyde town (3 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)0Heat index: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson2 records, 2020 to 2024 (2 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Tropical Storm record, 2024-09-27, $2,000,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars); NWS zone NCZ052Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1996 to 2000 (4 zone-level)No damage reported in 4 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Ice thickness: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)34 records, 1996 to 2024 (6 zone-level)Flash Flood, 2021-08-17, $200,000,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars), 5 direct deathsEvent records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Waynesville town (7 records), Clyde town (2 records), Canton town (1 record), Maggie Valley town (1 record). Zone-level records (6) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)7 records, 2004 to 2021 (5 zone-level)Debris Flow, 2004-09-08, $2,000,000 property; crops not reported (2004 dollars); NWS zone NCZ052No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan. Zone-level records (5) apply countywide.Physical measure: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)5 records, 2000 to 2012Lightning, 2005-07-19, $100,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Canton town (3 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties; physical measure in event narratives only (local data needed).
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)38 records, 1996 to 2025 (38 zone-level)40 kt (46 mph) to 65 kt (75 mph) (median 52.5 kt (60 mph)); 30 with a recorded value65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2025-03-16; NWS zone NCZ052High Wind, 2007-04-16, $500,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)75 records, 1963 to 202643 kt (49 mph) to 60 kt (69 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 63 with a recorded value60 kt (69 mph) estimated gust, Thunderstorm Wind, 2011-06-15; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2005-02-21Thunderstorm Wind, 1996-04-20, $50,000 property; crops not reported (1996 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Waynesville town (17 records), Canton town (11 records), Clyde town (5 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)2 records, 1976 to 2013F/EF1; 2 with a recorded valueEF1 tornado, 2013-06-13, 1.88 mi within this county, 100 yd wide, $0 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars), 1 direct injuryTornado, 1976-02-18, $250,000 property; crops not recorded (1976 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)1 record, 2000No damage reported in 1 record.No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Acres burned: in event narratives only (local data needed).
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)286 records, 1996 to 2026 (286 zone-level)No damage reported in 286 records.Countywide (zone-level records).Snow depth: in event narratives only (local data needed).

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records whose zone no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

A monthly summary record covers most or all of a month; it does not count days at wave conditions.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 21 declarations covering 17 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-21EM-3637-NCEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-09-282024-09-25DR-4827-NCMajor disasterTropical Storm HeleneHurricane$38,665,980.18new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-09-262024-09-25EM-3617-NCEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslideno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 yearssame incident as DR-4827
2022-10-012022-09-28EM-3586-NCEmergencyHurricane IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2021-09-082021-08-16DR-4617-NCMajor disasterRemnants of Tropical Storm FredHurricane$14,157,482.64
2020-08-022020-07-31EM-3534-NCEmergencyHurricane IsaiasHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4487-NCMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$559,993.34
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3471-NCEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4487
2019-09-032019-09-01EM-3423-NCEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2018-09-102018-09-07EM-3401-NCEmergencyHurricane FlorenceHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2010-02-022009-12-18DR-1871-NCMajor disasterSevere Winter Storms and FloodingInland Flooding; Winter Weather$906,396.65
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3222-NCEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2004-09-182004-09-16DR-1553-NCMajor disasterHurricane IvanHurricane$1,911,247.67
2004-09-102004-09-07DR-1546-NCMajor disasterTropical Storm FrancesHurricane$1,787,879.77
1998-01-151998-01-07DR-1200-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms and FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1996-02-231996-02-02DR-1103-NCMajor disasterWinter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-06DR-1087-NCMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1995-10-231995-10-04DR-1073-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms, Flooding, High WindsInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Strong Windno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-171993-03-13EM-3110-NCEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1977-11-091977-11-09DR-542-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded
1973-06-251973-06-25DR-394-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Floodingno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-10-131964-10-13DR-179-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-161962-03-16DR-130-NCMajor disasterSevere Storm, High Tides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Coastal Flooding
1960-09-161960-09-16DR-107-NCMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1958-10-011958-10-01DR-87-NCMajor disasterHurricane & Severe StormHurricane
1956-04-241956-04-24DR-56-NCMajor disasterSevere StormHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1955-08-131955-08-13DR-37-NCMajor disasterHurricanesHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1954-10-171954-10-17DR-28-NCMajor disasterHurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

1 Fire Management declaration (1986-05-10 to 1986-05-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave23909001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought37202001996 to 2026-06-30
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail63415001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Hurricane2101821996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm4000001996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding34213611996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide7000111996 to 2026-06-30
Lightning5000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind11310010101955 to 2026-06-30Includes 31 High Wind and 7 Strong Wind records.
Tornado2000001950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire1000001996 to 2026-06-30
Winter Weather28617522511996 to 2026-06-30Includes 4 Sleet records.

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-03-16High Wind65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust$100,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ052 (HAYWOOD), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2024-09-27Flash Flood$200,000,000 property; $0 crops (2024 dollars)4, 0BURNETT SIDING to HYATT CREEKnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsdeaths or injuries recorded
2024-09-27Tropical Storm$2,000,000 property; $0 crops, reported for the zone (2024 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ052 (HAYWOOD), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
2021-08-17Flash Flood$200,000,000 property; $0 crops (2021 dollars)5, 0BURNETT SIDING to WEST CANTONdeaths or injuries recorded
2014-07-27Hail1.75 indamage not reported0, 0HYATT CREEK to HAZELWOODB1-c worst recorded: Hail
2013-06-13TornadoEF1, 1.88 mi within this county, 100 yd wide$0 property; $0 crops (2013 dollars)0, 1MT STERLINGB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
2011-06-15Thunderstorm Wind60 kt (69 mph) estimated gustdamage not reported0, 0NELLIE to CRUSOB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
2007-04-08Frost/Freeze$0 property; $2,000,000 crops, reported for the zone (2007 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ052 (HAYWOOD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Frost/Freeze
2005-07-19Lightning$100,000 property; crops not reported (2005 dollars)0, 0CANTONB1-c worst recorded: Lightning
2004-09-16Flood$15,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2004 dollars)3, 0NWS zone NCZ052 (HAYWOOD), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2004-09-08Debris Flow$2,000,000 property; crops not reported, reported for the zone (2004 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ052 (HAYWOOD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Debris Flow
2000-12-01Extreme Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NCZ052 (HAYWOOD), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (577 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave3.85event-days per yearabout 3.85 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 12 of 30 years)event-days in 12 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (40%)73.12005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought27.8event-days per yearabout 27.8 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 8 of 30 years)event-days in 8 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (26.7%)9102000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywide
Earthquake0.00262annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.262%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail3.82events per yearabout 3.82 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)145.2 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave0event-days per yearnone modeledevent-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)02005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywideNo Storm Events heat wave record, 1996 to 2025
Hurricane0.0192events per yearabout 1 in 52 yearsPossibleFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)61851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm0.605event-days per yearabout 0.605 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 3 of 30 years)event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)411946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding1.07event-days per yearabout 1.07 days per yearLikely (from Storm Events: 15 of 30 years)event-days in 15 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (50%)301996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide2.02events per year (modeled)about 2.02 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning55.4days per year with a strikeabout 55.4 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind3.24events per yearabout 3.24 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)1241986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.175events per yearabout 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.00245annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.245%Possible (from Storm Events: 1 of 30 years)Storm Events records in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fDescriptor from Storm Events, not NRI.
Winter Weather22.6event-days per yearabout 22.6 days per yearHighly likely (from Storm Events: 30 of 30 years)event-days in 30 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (100%)4302005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202532301.07
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 202560302
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20250300
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave21 of 2116.593.497.5Very High 6, Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 1, Very Low 1
Drought9 of 2171.582.492.5Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 6, Very Low 2, No Rating 12
Earthquake21 of 210.456.574.0Relatively Low 18, Very Low 3
Hail21 of 212.060.574.4Relatively Moderate 4, Relatively Low 16, Very Low 1
Heat Wave0 of 21No Rating 21
Hurricane21 of 2112.151.354.5Relatively Low 10, Very Low 11
Ice Storm21 of 210.273.892.9Relatively High 2, Relatively Moderate 11, Relatively Low 7, Very Low 1
Inland Flooding21 of 210.380.796.1Very High 1, Relatively High 10, Relatively Moderate 7, Relatively Low 2, Very Low 1
Landslide21 of 2149.096.499.8Relatively High 4, Relatively Moderate 9, Relatively Low 7, Very Low 1
Lightning21 of 210.483.693.6Relatively High 13, Relatively Moderate 6, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Strong Wind21 of 211.477.287.2Relatively High 7, Relatively Moderate 12, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1
Tornado21 of 210.752.764.0Relatively Moderate 10, Relatively Low 10, Very Low 1
Wildfire21 of 2119.172.588.1Relatively Low 14, Very Low 7
Winter Weather21 of 2110.965.677.5Relatively Moderate 19, Relatively Low 1, Very Low 1

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Haywood County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2027-09-12FMA RL 11, SRL 6; any 25$21,803,711.680 total; 0 since its planIncludes $559,993.34 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4487-NC).
Canton townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12FMA RL 4, SRL 1; any 13$12,962,742.7326 total; 1 since its plan
Clyde townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12FMA RL 9, SRL 6; any 37$2,184,056.8210 total; 0 since its plan
Maggie Valley townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 0$4,371,678.941 total; 0 since its plan
Waynesville townTownApproved, expires 2027-09-12FMA RL 0, SRL 0; any 5$1,677,682.5944 total; 1 since its plan

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2022-09-13county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$11,675,894,324$23,386,69262,051$657$224,322$6,765,600under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$8,463,815n/an/a$84,262n/a0.996% (agriculture)$0NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$19,699,262,414n/a62,089$647,829n/a$111,0180.00329%
Hail$11,675,894,973$23,386,69262,051$108,379$50,701$89,9820.000928%
Heat Wave$0$00$0$0$0building exposure is 0 in NRI
Hurricane$11,675,894,324$23,386,69262,051$125,081$5,925$6,6880.00107%$2,000,000$38,665,980.18
Ice Storm$11,668,587,414n/a62,018$260,814n/a$10,4300.00224%
Inland Flooding$11,647,505,940$4,458,6514,681$16,802,950$50,521$2,828,898n/a (see note)$200,100,000no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$2,939,465,769n/a17,975$149,101n/a$396,3410.00507%no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)
Lightning$11,675,894,973n/a62,051$33,321n/a$542,5640.000285%
Strong Wind$11,675,894,973$23,386,69262,051$148,211$21,700$676,3270.00127%$0$100,000Storm Events damage since the plan includes 1 zone-level High Wind record ($100,000): a NOAA non-thunderstorm wind type, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition.
Tornado$11,675,894,973$23,386,69262,051$613,117$392$758,0870.00525%
Wildfire$400,353,015$6,997,3077,831$42,058$129$23,2450.0105%
Winter Weather$11,675,894,324$23,386,69262,051$6,034$286$76,846under 0.0001%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2022-09-13 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 15 county-coded records, 11 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $200,100,000; 30 zone-level records, 29 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $2,100,000 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $38,665,980.18 on 4 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population62,051
Building value (total, not at risk)$11,675,894,973
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$23,386,692
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Low
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$19,375,788
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$12,286,028
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively High
Community resilience ratingRelatively Moderate
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)24Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)13
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition71Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition7

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total241371780134
of which: Haywood County (unincorporated area)11619325114
of which: Canton town411111309
of which: Clyde town963633707
of which: Waynesville town0050504
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0020200

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Haywood County (unincorporated area)37012011619325114
Canton town370121411111309
Clyde town370122963633707
Maggie Valley town3703890000000
Waynesville town3701240050504

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential231257666127
2 to 4 unit residential0000000
other residential0020200
non-residential111211207
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 7 properties are FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 54 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment, organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B. Each section heading names the item its tables support; the plan and FEMA's review decide whether the item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Haywood County, NC: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 37087). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nc/37087/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]

Hazard Plain release 2026-10. As of 2026-09-30; Storm Events data through 2026-06-30. Automated baseline.