Hazard Plain Automated baseline

Durham County, NC

Risk-assessment baseline packet

County FIPS:
37063
Release:
2026-10
Data as of:
2026-09-30
Storm Events data through:
2026-06-30

Hazard Plain is an independent product built from public federal data. It is not a FEMA document and is not reviewed or endorsed by FEMA or any state agency.

Hazard Plain release 2026-10, as of 2026-09-30.

Summary

Plan status as of 2026-09-30: Approved, expires 2030-06-10. Plan: Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807), approved 2025-06-11.

Since the plan was approved on 2025-06-11: 2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents) and 26 NOAA Storm Events records; details under "What changed since your last plan".

Highest expected annual loss (FEMA National Risk Index, modeled total; see B1-a): Inland Flooding ($57,284,756 a year), Tornado ($10,841,387) and Hurricane ($7,610,401).

The tables that follow are organized by the items of FEMA's Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool, Element B (B1-a to B2-c); each heading says which item its tables support.

Plan clock

Status:
Approved, expires 2030-06-10
Plan:
Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)
Approved:
2025-06-11
Days to expiry:
1,349

What changed since your last plan (approved 2025-06-11)

New federal declarations:
2 new hazard declarations (2 incidents): DR-4889-NC (Tropical Depression Chantal), EM-3637-NC (Severe Winter Storm)
Storm Events records since approval:
26 records (data through 2026-06-30)
Repetitive loss now:
FMA RL 2, SRL 4 (44 CFR 77.2); any definition: 50
Repeat-flood change:
this release sets the baseline count.

Sources: 1, 2, 4, 6 (numbered list at the end)

Plan status for every jurisdiction listed in this county

Source: 1

JurisdictionTypeStatusPlanApprovedExpiresDays to expirynegative = days since expiryNotes
Durham County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-08-25
Durham cityCityApproved, expires 2030-06-10Eno-Haw Regional (FEMA plan 110807)2025-06-112030-06-101,349this jurisdiction approved 2025-09-23
University of North Carolina-Central UniversityCollege/UniversityApproved, expires 2031-08-26University of North Carolina - Eastern Campuses (FEMA plan 111827)2026-08-272031-08-261,791

Plan 110807 covers 16 other participants, named in the Excel file.

State plan status and tribal plans in this state: see the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-a: hazard identification

Hazards NRI does not cover (local data needed)

  • dam failure (incl. upstream dams)
  • levee failure
  • flash flood as its own subtype
  • ice jams
  • debris flows
  • erosion (riverine and coastal)
  • land subsidence and sinkholes
  • expansive soils

The 18 National Risk Index hazards, ranked by expected annual loss (EAL)

Sources: 5, 6

Rank by EALHazardNRI risk ratingEAL ratingEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL total (see note)modeled dollars per yearStorm Events records, 1996 to 2026-06-30countStorm Events coverage note
1Inland FloodingRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$56,721,595$23,070$540,090$57,284,75695
2TornadoRelatively HighRelatively High$4,079,213$220$6,761,953$10,841,3877
3HurricaneRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$7,190,480$37,618$382,303$7,610,4018
4Heat WaveRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$250$20$5,457,020$5,457,2906
5EarthquakeRelatively LowRelatively Low$1,729,274n/a$502,980$2,232,255Storm Events does not record earthquakes.
6Strong WindRelatively HighRelatively High$517,308$3,249$1,529,470$2,050,026221Includes 4 High Wind and 16 Strong Wind records (NOAA non-thunderstorm wind types, outside NRI's Strong Wind definition).
7HailRelatively ModerateRelatively Moderate$1,332,660$6,609$450,708$1,789,97795
8LightningRelatively HighRelatively High$110,310n/a$1,260,167$1,370,47710
9Cold WaveRelatively LowRelatively Moderate$31,481$6,214$1,245,548$1,283,2442Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition; counted in this table and in B1-d, not in the B1-e descriptor).
10Ice StormRelatively HighRelatively High$268,242n/a$283,673$551,9154
11Winter WeatherRelatively ModerateRelatively High$73,808$34$196,385$270,22765
12DroughtRelatively LowRelatively Lown/a$96,649n/a$96,6490Declared 2 times; no Storm Events record of this type.
13WildfireVery LowVery Low$18,485$2$2,237$20,7230No recorded events in Storm Events since 1996 (data through 2026-06-30).
14LandslideVery LowVery Low$1,019n/a$108$1,1280Declared 1 time; no Storm Events record of this type.

Total = buildings + agriculture + population equivalence; FEMA values each expected death (or 10 injuries) at $13.7 million (2024 dollars).

NRI risk rating combines expected annual loss with social vulnerability and community resilience; EAL rating rates expected annual loss alone. Both compare this county with all U.S. counties.

Local data needed: state and local wildfire and landslide records (Storm Events records these hazards only in part).

Not applicable to this county per NRI, with no federal declaration and no Storm Events record since 1996: avalanche, coastal flooding, tsunami and volcanic activity. That is the evidence for leaving them out of the plan.

The state hazard mitigation plan also lists hazards for this county; FEMA asks the plan to explain any hazard it leaves out.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-b: hazard location

Affects the whole county (national data give no location within it): Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather.

Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.

Hazards that vary within the county: highest-rated census tracts

Source: 5

HazardHighest-rated census tractsNRI risk rating, score 0 to 100
Earthquaketract 15.01 (Relatively Low, 73.6); tract 14 (Relatively Low, 73.5); tract 9801 (Relatively Low, 71.2)
Hurricanetract 21 (Relatively Moderate, 87.2); tract 20.38 (Relatively Moderate, 85.4); tract 9801 (Relatively Moderate, 85.0)
Landslidetract 21 (Relatively Low, 90.7); tract 19 (Very Low, 80.5); tract 18.01 (Very Low, 71.0)
Tornadotract 17.09 (Relatively High, 88.3); tract 21 (Relatively High, 86.8); tract 18.02 (Relatively High, 84.7)
Wildfiretract 20.34 (Relatively Low, 68.7); tract 19 (Very Low, 67.1); tract 21 (Very Low, 66.7)

Up to 3 census tracts per hazard, highest National Risk Index rating first, then highest score; a tract number is the Census tract number (for example 15.01 is Census Tract 15.01). FEMA's Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool maps the National Risk Index for every tract: https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/resilience-analysis-and-planning-tool

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-c: hazard extent

Extent: scale, observed range and worst recorded event per hazard

Sources: 6, 7

HazardScaleRecordscount and yearsObserved rangeWorst recorded eventMost damaging (when different)How it applies to jurisdictionsNote
Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chillwind chill1 record, 1996 (1 zone-level)3 days; 1 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 1996-02-03 to 1996-02-05, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Frost/Freeze (outside NRI's Cold Wave definition)crop damage1 record, 2025 (1 zone-level)No crop damage reported in 1 record.Countywide (zone-level records).
DroughtU.S. Drought Monitor scale (D0 to D4)0Storm Events enters a drought at D2 or worse east of the Rockies and D3 or worse from the Rockies west (NWS Instruction 10-1605); NRI drought counts D3 and D4 only.
EarthquakeModified Mercalli (local data)0Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hailhail size (inches)127 records, 1955 to 20250.75 in to 2.75 in (median 1 in); 127 with a recorded value2.75 in hail, 1955-04-24Hail, 2018-05-10, $15,000 property; $0 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Durham city (38 records).
Excessive Heat, Heatheat index (in event narratives)6 records, 1998 to 2025 (6 zone-level)2 days to 3 days (median 2 days); 3 with a recorded value3 consecutive days, 2025-07-26 to 2025-07-28, zone-levelCountywide (zone-level records).
Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical DepressionSaffir-Simpson8 records, 1996 to 2022 (8 zone-level)Strongest recorded: Hurricane record (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)'), 2003-09-18, $205,000 property; crops not reported (2003 dollars); NWS zone NCZ025Most damaging recorded: Tropical Storm, 2022-09-30, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2022 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).Storm Events files every zone of a storm's episode under the storm's type; flooding from the storm is filed as Flood or Flash Flood records.
Ice StormSperry-Piltz ice scale (local data)4 records, 1996 to 2014 (4 zone-level)Ice Storm, 2014-03-06, $400,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars); NWS zone NCZ025Countywide (zone-level records).
Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flooddamage and flood days (flood depth: FIRM)95 records, 1996 to 2025 (2 zone-level)Flood, 2018-09-17, $11,050,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2018 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Durham city (20 records). Zone-level records (2) apply countywide.Flood depth: see the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. Storm Events damage is often $0 or blank for floods, major ones included; FEMA Public Assistance by declaration (B1-d) shows which floods cost the most.
Debris Flownone (count and damage only)0
Lightningannualized frequency (the measure FEMA's Local Mitigation Planning Handbook names)10 records, 1997 to 2021Lightning, 2011-06-10, $0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars), 1 direct deathLightning, 2012-03-20, $100,000 property; $0 crops (2012 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Durham city (4 records).Storm Events lists lightning with damage or casualties.
High Wind and Strong Wind (outside NRI's Strong Wind definition)wind speed (kt and mph)20 records, 1998 to 2020 (20 zone-level)35 kt (40 mph) to 50 kt (58 mph) (median 39.5 kt (45 mph)); 20 with a recorded value50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust, High Wind, 2010-02-10; same speed and measurement basis also recorded on 2004-03-07; NWS zone NCZ025Strong Wind, 2020-10-29, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2020 dollars)Countywide (zone-level records).
Thunderstorm Windwind speed (kt and mph)264 records, 1956 to 202650 kt (58 mph) to 80 kt (92 mph) (median 50 kt (58 mph)); 210 with a recorded value80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1962-07-21Thunderstorm Wind, 2016-02-24, $250,000 property; $0 crops (2016 dollars)Event records naming jurisdictions in the plan: Durham city (42 records).
TornadoEnhanced Fujita (Fujita before Feb 2007)11 records, 1975 to 2024F/EF0 to F/EF2 (median F/EF1); 11 with a recorded valueF2 tornado, 1984-04-04, 1.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 67 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1984 dollars), 4 direct injuriesTornado, 1989-05-05, $25,000,000 property; crops not recorded (1989 dollars)No event record names a jurisdiction in the plan.Before 1996 a tornado is listed once, under the county where it began, with its whole path's rating and length; from 1996 on, each county lists its own segment. Length is not used to rank tornadoes (see Methods).
Wildfireacres burned (local data)0
Winter Storm, Heavy Snow, Blizzard, Lake-Effect Snow, Winter Weather, Sleetnone in data (snowfall: local data)65 records, 1996 to 2026 (65 zone-level)Winter Storm, 2015-02-25, $1,000,000 property; $0 crops (2015 dollars); NWS zone NCZ025Countywide (zone-level records).

In event narratives only (local data needed): wind chill, temperature, heat index, ice thickness, acres burned and snow depth; any physical measure of debris flow and lightning.

Storm Events records are more complete after 1996; before 1996 only Tornado (from 1950), Hail and Thunderstorm Wind (from 1955) exist. Zone-level records from zones that no NWS zone-county file places in this county (mostly before 2020) are not counted here (the Methods page explains the zone matching).

Dollars are nominal (as reported), labeled with the year; not adjusted for inflation.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-d: previous occurrences

Federal declarations for this county: 25 declarations covering 20 separate hazard incidents counted in this packet (declarations for the same incident count once; non-natural and evacuation-only declarations are not counted).

Federal disaster declarations for this county

Sources: 1, 2, 3

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazardCounty Public Assistancefederal share obligated, nominal dollarsFlagsNotes
2026-01-242026-01-21EM-3637-NCEmergencySevere Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recordednew since last plan; within last 5 years
2025-09-112025-07-06DR-4889-NCMajor disasterTropical Depression ChantalHurricane$794,247.39new since last plan; within last 5 years
2024-09-262024-09-25EM-3617-NCEmergencyHurricane HeleneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding, Landslideno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2024-08-062024-08-05EM-3608-NCEmergencyTropical Storm DebbyHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedin the 12 months before plan approval; within last 5 years
2022-10-012022-09-28EM-3586-NCEmergencyHurricane IanHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedwithin last 5 years
2020-08-022020-07-31EM-3534-NCEmergencyHurricane IsaiasHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2020-03-252020-01-20DR-4487-NCMajor disasterCOVID-19 PandemicNon-natural, not counted$40,662,101.01
2020-03-132020-01-20EM-3471-NCEmergencyCOVID-19Non-natural, not countedno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4487
2019-09-032019-09-01EM-3423-NCEmergencyHurricane DorianHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2018-09-142018-09-07DR-4393-NCMajor disasterHurricane FlorenceHurricanePA not declared for this county
2018-09-102018-09-07EM-3401-NCEmergencyHurricane FlorenceHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-4393
2016-10-072016-10-04EM-3380-NCEmergencyHurricane MatthewHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
2005-09-052005-08-29EM-3222-NCEmergencyHurricane Katrina EvacuationHurricane: evacuation support, not a local hazard event; not countedno Public Assistance recorded
2003-09-182003-09-18DR-1490-NCMajor disasterHurricane IsabelHurricanePA not declared for this county
2002-12-122002-12-04DR-1448-NCMajor disasterSevere Ice StormIce Storm$6,180,183.87
2000-01-312000-01-24DR-1312-NCMajor disasterSevere Winter StormWinter Weather$313,262.85
1999-09-161999-09-15DR-1292-NCMajor disasterHurricane Floyd Major Disaster DeclarationsHurricane$131,257.26
1999-09-151999-09-15EM-3146-NCEmergencyHurricane Floyd Emergency DeclarationsHurricaneno Public Assistance recordedsame incident as DR-1292
1998-03-221998-03-20DR-1211-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms Tornadoes, and FloodingInland Flooding; TornadoPA not declared for this county
1996-09-061996-09-05DR-1134-NCMajor disasterHurricane FranHurricaneno Public Assistance recorded
1996-01-131996-01-06DR-1087-NCMajor disasterBlizzard of 96Winter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1993-03-171993-03-13EM-3110-NCEmergencySevere Snowfall & Winter StormWinter Weatherno Public Assistance recorded
1989-05-171989-05-05DR-827-NCMajor disasterTornadoesTornadono Public Assistance recorded
1977-08-111977-08-11EM-3049-NCEmergencyDroughtDroughtno Public Assistance recorded
1977-03-021977-03-02EM-3033-NCEmergencyDrought & FreezingWinter Weather (primary); also designated: Droughtno Public Assistance recorded

County Public Assistance: applicants the FEMA record places in this county, including any state agencies FEMA files there; statewide rows are listed on the state page; federal share obligated, nominal dollars.

Statewide declarations

Source: 2

DeclaredIncident beganFEMA numberTypeTitleMapped hazard
1964-10-131964-10-13DR-179-NCMajor disasterSevere Storms & FloodingInland Flooding
1962-03-161962-03-16DR-130-NCMajor disasterSevere Storm, High Tides & FloodingInland Flooding (primary); also designated: Coastal Flooding
1960-09-161960-09-16DR-107-NCMajor disasterHurricane DonnaHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1958-10-011958-10-01DR-87-NCMajor disasterHurricane & Severe StormHurricane
1956-04-241956-04-24DR-56-NCMajor disasterSevere StormHazard not mapped (severe storm title names no single hazard); not counted
1955-08-131955-08-13DR-37-NCMajor disasterHurricanesHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding
1954-10-171954-10-17DR-28-NCMajor disasterHurricaneHurricane (primary); also designated: Inland Flooding

FEMA recorded these with designated area Statewide and no county, so they are listed on every county page in the state and not counted with county rows. Local data needed: whether each one affected this county.

1 Fire Management declaration (1986-05-10 to 1986-05-10) FEMA filed as Statewide with no county; each names one local fire. Listed on the state page.

Public Assistance filed under this county for declarations that do not list it: 1 row, $97,423.31

Sources: 2, 3

FEMA numberDeclaredTitleApplicantPA obligatedfederal share obligated, nominal dollars
DR-4827-NC2024-09-28Tropical Storm HeleneNorth Carolina School of Science and Mathematics$97,423.31

FEMA's Public Assistance summaries file these applicants under this county, but FEMA's declaration rows for these disasters do not designate it (an electric cooperative or district serving several counties, for example). Not in any declaration row above and not counted.

Previous occurrences by hazard, with explicit no-event rows

Sources: 2, 6, 7

HazardStorm Events records, all years on file(years in the Period column)Since plan approvalrecordsIn the 12 months before plan approvalrecordsLast 5 yearsrecordsDeclared incidents, all yearsseparate disastersDeclared since approvalseparate disastersPeriodStatement
Cold Wave2101001996 to 2026-06-30Includes 1 Frost/Freeze record.
Drought0000201996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 2 federal declared incidents (see declarations table)
Earthquake000000Storm Events does not record earthquakes; the USGS earthquake catalog is the source.
Hail127012001955 to 2026-06-30
Heat Wave6505001996 to 2026-06-30
Hurricane80011111996 to 2026-06-30
Ice Storm4000101996 to 2026-06-30
Inland Flooding9551225201996 to 2026-06-30
Landslide0000101996 to 2026-06-30No Storm Events records of this type; 1 federal declared incident (see declarations table)
Lightning10000001996 to 2026-06-30
Strong Wind284131565001955 to 2026-06-30Includes 4 High Wind and 16 Strong Wind records.
Tornado11013201950 to 2026-06-30
Wildfire0000001996 to 2026-06-30No recorded events, 1996 to 2026-06-30, NOAA NCEI Storm Events
Winter Weather65217511996 to 2026-06-30

Notable Storm Events records

Sources: 1, 6, 7

DateEvent typeMagnitude or extentDamagenominal dollarsDeaths, injuriesdirect onlyLocationFlagsWhy listed
2025-07-26Excessive Heat$0 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2025 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ025 (DURHAM), zone-levelnew since last plan; within last 5 yearsB1-c worst recorded: Excessive Heat, Heat
2018-09-17Flood$11,050,000 property; $5,000,000 crops (2018 dollars)0, 0GENLEE to CLEGGB1-c worst recorded: Flash Flood, Flood, Lakeshore Flood
2016-04-09Strong Wind37 kt (43 mph) measured gust$30,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2016 dollars)1, 1NWS zone NCZ025 (DURHAM), zone-leveldeaths or injuries recorded
2014-03-12Thunderstorm Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$8,000 property; $0 crops (2014 dollars)1, 0HOPE VLY to LOWES GROVEdeaths or injuries recorded
2014-03-06Ice Storm$400,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2014 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ025 (DURHAM), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Ice Storm
2011-06-10Lightning$0 property; $0 crops (2011 dollars)1, 0GORMANdeaths or injuries recorded
2010-02-10High Wind50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust$1,000 property; $0 crops (zone total, 2010 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ025 (DURHAM), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: High Wind and Strong Wind
2003-09-18Hurricane (NOAA event type 'Hurricane (Typhoon)')$205,000 property; crops not reported (zone total, 2003 dollars)0, 0NWS zone NCZ025 (DURHAM), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Tropical Depression
1996-02-03Cold/Wind Chilldamage not reported0, 0NWS zone NCZ025 (DURHAM), zone-levelB1-c worst recorded: Cold/Wind Chill, Extreme Cold/Wind Chill
1984-04-04TornadoF2, 1.7 mi path length (whole path, pre-1996), 67 yd wide$2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1984 dollars)0, 4location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Tornado
1962-07-21Thunderstorm Wind80 kt (92 mph), measurement type not recordeddamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Thunderstorm Wind
1955-04-24Hail2.75 indamage not recorded (pre-1996 record)0, 0location not recordedB1-c worst recorded: Hail

The full list is in the Excel file, sheet "B1-d Storm Events history" (612 rows).

Location is the place NOAA recorded, as written in its data; it need not be a jurisdiction in this plan.

Local data needed: state-declared emergencies, from your state emergency management agency (federal data do not include them).

Tribal and special-area declarations in this state are listed on the state page.

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-e: probability of future events

Probability: FEMA annualized frequency and descriptor per hazard

Sources: 5, 6

HazardFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)unit per rowUnitIn plain termsDescriptorDescriptor basisNRI events or days in its record period (hail, wind and tornado are area-weighted, so can be fractional)NRI periodLocationNote
Cold Wave0.684event-days per yearabout 0.684 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 1 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (3.33%)132005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Drought15.6event-days per yearabout 15.6 days per yearStorm Events event-days in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)4622000 to 2025 (25.25 years; D3 and D4 only)countywideNo Storm Events drought record, 1996 to 2025
Earthquake0.00108annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county has at least minor-damage shaking in a year: 0.108%not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor (Storm Events does not record earthquakes).
Hail4.19events per yearabout 4.19 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)159.1 (modeled)1986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Heat Wave5.63event-days per yearabout 5.63 days per yearPossibleStorm Events event-days in 2 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (6.67%)902005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide
Hurricane0.134events per yearabout 1 in 7 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)361851 to 2024 (Atlantic)see B1-fNRI counts hurricane and tropical storm tracks passing within storm-force wind range; federal declarations are in B1-d.
Ice Storm1.72event-days per yearabout 1.72 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 3 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (10%)1161946-12-31 to 2014-02-12 (67 years)countywide
Inland Flooding2.07event-days per yearabout 2.07 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 25 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (83.3%)581996 to 2023 (28 years)see B1-f
Landslide0.174events per year (modeled)about 1 in 6 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shownmodeledsee B1-f
Lightning47.3days per year with a strikeabout 47.3 days per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1995 to 2023 (29 years; CONUS)countywide
Strong Wind1.31events per yearabout 1.31 per yearHighly likelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)501986 to 2023 (38 years)countywide
Tornado0.125events per yearabout 1 in 8 yearsLikelyFEMA annualized frequency (modeled)not shown1950 to 2023 (EF2+); 1986 to 2023 (EF0-1)see B1-f
Wildfire0.0000332annual probability at a locationchance a given location in the county burns in a year: 0.00332%Storm Events records in 0 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (0%)not shownmodeledsee B1-fNo descriptor: no Storm Events record 1996 to 2025
Winter Weather7.16event-days per yearabout 7.16 days per yearLikelyStorm Events event-days in 21 of 30 years, 1996 to 2025 (70%)1362005-11-12 to 2024-11-12 (19 years)countywide

FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) is the National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025) estimate of how often a hazard affects this county in a year; it is not recorded events divided by years, and its unit differs by hazard (events, event-days, or days with a lightning strike per year). For earthquake, wildfire, coastal flooding and tsunami the value is the chance (or number of events) at a location in the county, not across the county, so no "1 in N years" is given and the descriptor comes from Storm Events where it has a record (none for earthquake). The Methods page gives each hazard's method, from FEMA's National Risk Index Technical Documentation v1.20.

Where NRI gives event-days, the descriptor comes from the share of years with a Storm Events record; NRI's source records more events, so the two differ.

Descriptor scale used in this packet (defined per unit)

Sources: 5, 6

UnitDescriptorDefinition
events per yearHighly likely1 or more per year
events per yearLikelyabout once in 1 to 10 years
events per yearPossibleabout once in 10 to 100 years
events per yearUnlikelyless than once in 100 years
annual probabilityLikely10% to under 100% chance in a given year
annual probabilityPossible1% to under 10% chance in a given year
annual probabilityUnlikelyunder 1% chance in a given year
event-days (share of years)Highly likelyevent-days recorded in 90% or more of years
event-days (share of years)Likelyevent-days recorded in 10% to under 90% of years
event-days (share of years)Possibleevent-days recorded in some years but under 10% of years
lightning strike-daysHighly likelycloud-to-ground strikes on 1 or more days per year

Intensity bands: historical frequency (Storm Events)

Source: 6

HazardBandYearsEventscounty-coded recordsYears in periodEvents per yearevents / years
Hail1.00-1.99 in1996 to 202549301.63
Hail2.00 in+1996 to 20250300
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)50-64 kt1996 to 2025192306.4
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)65 kt+1996 to 20251300.0333
Thunderstorm Wind (counted as NRI Strong Wind)unmeasured or below 50 kt1996 to 20255300.167
TornadoEF0-11996 to 20256300.2
TornadoEF2-31996 to 20251300.0333
TornadoEF4-51996 to 20250300
Tornadounrated (EFU)1996 to 20250300

The bands show how often events of each severity were recorded in this county, to profile how severe events have been (FEMA's probability item asks for the range of intensities).

Hail smaller than 1 inch is not counted: on 2010-01-05 the National Weather Service raised its severe-hail threshold from 3/4 inch to 1 inch, so smaller reports became less common after 2009 (NWS Service Change Notice 09-52). NRI hail frequency uses a 0.75 inch threshold.

Optional: future conditions. Not a required item in the 2025 FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide; some states ask for it. The federal Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) site gives county exposure to future climate conditions (https://resilience.climate.gov/).

Supports FEMA checklist item B1-f: hazards that vary across jurisdictions

Range of census tract risk within the county

Source: 5

HazardTractsrated of allNRI risk score, 0 to 100Tracts by rating
MinMedianMax
Cold Wave68 of 6816.629.747.1Relatively Low 67, Very Low 1
Drought13 of 6869.077.294.9Relatively Moderate 1, Relatively Low 5, Very Low 7, No Rating 55
Earthquake68 of 6819.244.973.6Relatively Low 40, Very Low 28
Hail68 of 6849.371.286.7Relatively Moderate 41, Relatively Low 27
Heat Wave68 of 681.872.191.0Relatively High 5, Relatively Moderate 49, Relatively Low 13, Very Low 1
Hurricane68 of 6855.677.387.2Relatively Moderate 23, Relatively Low 45
Ice Storm68 of 6832.862.181.9Relatively Moderate 17, Relatively Low 49, Very Low 2
Inland Flooding68 of 681.463.392.3Relatively High 14, Relatively Moderate 31, Relatively Low 19, Very Low 4
Landslide68 of 6813.646.690.7Relatively Low 1, Very Low 67
Lightning68 of 6818.365.791.0Relatively High 8, Relatively Moderate 47, Relatively Low 12, Very Low 1
Strong Wind68 of 6833.863.783.6Relatively High 3, Relatively Moderate 48, Relatively Low 17
Tornado68 of 6842.266.788.3Relatively High 14, Relatively Moderate 44, Relatively Low 10
Wildfire68 of 6824.748.868.7Relatively Low 1, Very Low 67
Winter Weather68 of 6837.058.179.3Relatively High 1, Relatively Moderate 50, Relatively Low 17

Drought: Agriculture is all of NRI's expected annual loss for this hazard in the county, so the tract range mostly reflects where crop and livestock value is.

Rated tracts only: No Rating (score 0.0), Not Applicable and Insufficient Data tracts are counted but not used for the minimum, median and maximum.

The score ranks a tract against all U.S. tracts (100 = highest). The rating is FEMA's category for the tract's risk value, computed differently, so the two can disagree.

Frequency data for cold wave, drought, hail, heat wave, ice storm, lightning, strong wind and winter weather are county-wide or coarse (49 km grid or NWS zone), the same for every jurisdiction; the tract range mostly reflects where buildings and people are (crop and livestock value where a line above names agriculture).

Each jurisdiction (starting figures from federal data)

Sources: 1, 3, 4, 6

JurisdictionTypePlan statusRepetitive lossFMA RL and SRL (44 CFR 77.2); repeat-flood, any definitionPublic Assistance to this jurisdictionFEMA records matched by applicant name; federal share obligated, nominal dollarsEvent records naming this placeall years; since its planNotes
Durham County (unincorporated area)UnincorporatedApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 1, SRL 1; any 5$975,266.940 total; 0 since its planIncludes $664,024.70 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4487-NC).
Durham cityCityApproved, expires 2030-06-10FMA RL 1, SRL 3; any 44$7,662,541.74104 total; 2 since its planIncludes $615,774.62 for declarations not counted as hazard incidents (DR-4487-NC).

Repetitive-loss counts are for whole NFIP communities, which can extend beyond this county (see the note in B2-c).

School districts and special districts get a plan clock row only.

County Public Assistance in B1-d also includes applicants filed under the county that are not jurisdictions in this plan (for example state agencies, special districts and nonprofits), so the jurisdiction rows add up to less.

Supports FEMA checklist items B2-a and B2-b: vulnerability and potential impacts

Local data needed

The table below gives county-level starting figures; the plan describes impacts for each jurisdiction and its own assets.

  • Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard
  • A problem statement per jurisdiction per hazard
  • Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a)
  • Future assets

County-level starter: exposure, expected annual loss and damage since the plan

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7

HazardBuilding exposuremodeled dollarsAgriculture exposuremodeled dollarsPopulation exposedpeopleEAL buildingsmodeled dollars per yearEAL agriculturemodeled dollars per yearCost of expected deaths and injuriesFEMA's dollar value per year, not property damageEAL as % of exposurebuildings; agriculture where notedStorm Events damage since 2025-06-11county-coded records, property plus crops, nominal dollarsZone-level damage since planproperty plus crops, reported for the zonePublic Assistance since plannominal dollars; see noteNote
Cold Wave$65,697,507,792$13,009,931324,580$31,481$6,214$1,245,548under 0.0001%$0
Droughtn/a$9,648,442n/an/a$96,649n/a1% (agriculture)NRI has no building exposure for this hazard; agriculture shown
Earthquake$113,174,887,917n/a324,833$1,729,274n/a$502,9800.00153%
Hail$65,697,507,792$13,009,931324,580$1,332,660$6,609$450,7080.00203%
Heat Wave$65,697,507,792$13,009,931324,580$250$20$5,457,020under 0.0001%$0
Hurricane$65,697,362,515$13,009,931324,579$7,190,480$37,618$382,3030.0109%$794,247.39
Ice Storm$65,697,507,792n/a324,580$268,242n/a$283,6730.000408%
Inland Flooding$65,653,954,131$778,1215,109$56,721,595$23,070$540,090n/a (see note)$242,000NRI counts the full building value of any census block with some flood loss; this is not the value of buildings in the floodplain. Use local FIRM overlays for B2-a/B2-b.
Landslide$1,160,905,958n/a5,617$1,019n/a$108under 0.0001%
Lightning$65,697,507,792n/a324,580$110,310n/a$1,260,1670.000168%
Strong Wind$65,697,507,792$13,009,931324,580$517,308$3,249$1,529,4700.000787%$84,000
Tornado$65,697,507,792$13,009,931324,580$4,079,213$220$6,761,9530.00621%
Wildfire$13,676,829,329$2,926,21080,140$18,485$2$2,2370.000135%
Winter Weather$65,697,507,792$13,009,931324,580$73,808$34$196,3850.000112%$0no Public Assistance recorded (1 declaration)

Totals since 2025-06-11 (Storm Events through 2026-06-30): 18 county-coded records, 18 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $326,000; 8 zone-level records, 8 with a damage value recorded (including $0), $0 reported for the zone; Public Assistance: $794,247.39 on 2 counted declarations, 1 of them with Public Assistance.

FEMA does not split Public Assistance by hazard. A declaration mapped to several hazards is listed under each of them with its full amount, so the per-hazard column does not add up to the total; the unit total counts each declaration once.

NRI computes earthquake exposure on its own basis, so it exceeds the county building value in B2-a.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-a: vulnerability (county context)

County context

Source: 5

MeasureValue
Population324,580
Building value (total, not at risk)$65,697,507,792
Agriculture value (total, not at risk)$13,009,931
NRI risk rating (all hazards)Relatively Moderate
Expected annual loss, buildings and agriculture, all hazards$72,247,811
Expected annual loss, population equivalence, all hazards (NRI values each statistical life at $13.7M; a modeled value of expected deaths and injuries, not property damage)$18,612,642
Social vulnerability ratingRelatively Low
Community resilience ratingRelatively High
NRI versionDecember 2025

FEMA's all-hazard expected annual loss adds buildings, agriculture and population equivalence; this table gives the property part and the population-equivalence part as separate rows.

Social vulnerability: higher means people are more likely to be harmed and slower to recover. Community resilience: lower means the community is less able to recover. High social vulnerability and low resilience both raise the NRI risk rating.

Supports FEMA checklist item B2-c: repetitive loss properties

Repetitive loss in this county, both definitions

Sources: 1, 4

DefinitionPropertiesSevere repetitive lossProperties
Repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)2Severe repetitive loss, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2)4
Repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition49Severe repetitive loss, NFIP insurance definition4

The state NFIP coordinator's list, the source FEMA's Handbook names, often uses the NFIP insurance definition (second row).

Repeat-flood properties: county and state-level rows

Sources: 1, 4

ScopeRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
County total2449450024
of which: Durham County (unincorporated area)1141500
of which: Durham city1344344024
of which: Chapel Hill town (plan jurisdiction listed on the Orange County page)0010100
Statewide, no county in FEMA's file0020200

1 of the county's repeat-flood properties belong to NFIP communities whose plan jurisdiction is not listed on this page (the community rows above name the page that lists it).

The statewide row counts properties FEMA's file gives with no county in this state; they are listed for reference and are not in this county's counts.

Repeat-flood properties by jurisdiction in the plan (NFIP community)

Sources: 1, 4

JurisdictionNFIP community IDRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
Durham County (unincorporated area)3700851141500
Durham city3700861344344024

Counts by occupancy group for each jurisdiction are in the Excel file, sheet "B2-c Jurisdictions".

Jurisdiction rows are whole NFIP communities and need not add up to the county total: a community that extends into another county is counted in full on each jurisdiction row, while the county table counts only its part in this county.

County repeat-flood properties by occupancy group

Sources: 1, 4

Occupancy groupRL, FMApropertiesSRL, FMApropertiesRL, NFIPpropertiesSRL, NFIPpropertiesAny categorypropertiesMitigatedpropertiesCurrently insuredproperties
single-family residential2336337019
2 to 4 unit residential0010100
other residential0171702
non-residential0050503
not reported0000000

FEMA's occupancy groups have no institutional class; institutional properties are counted in non-residential or other residential in the table by occupancy group.

FMA RL and FMA SRL are the Flood Mitigation Assistance definitions (44 CFR 77.2), the ones the FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide cites. NFIP repetitive loss (the FEMA insurance definition) is 2 or more claims over $1,000 in 10 years, and a property can leave that group once it is mitigated. Also shown: NFIP severe repetitive loss, any category, mitigated and currently insured. The Methods page gives the OpenFEMA field details.

Counts are aggregates of FEMA's public NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (FEMA's data date 2026-08-02; file version 2026-08-04). No property is identified. County assignment is FEMA's geocode.

In this county 1 property is FMA repetitive loss but not NFIP repetitive loss, and 48 properties are NFIP repetitive loss but not FMA repetitive loss.

Exact counts; no count suppression.

Sources

Tables cite these sources by number. The full list, for the plan's bibliography (FEMA review item A4-a):

  1. FEMA, OpenFEMA HazardMitigationPlanStatuses v1, version 2026-09-29T134039Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/HazardMitigationPlanStatuses (API)
  2. FEMA, OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, version 2026-09-29T162832Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v2/DisasterDeclarationsSummaries (API)
  3. FEMA, OpenFEMA PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries v1, version 2026-09-29T150754Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/PublicAssistanceFundedProjectsSummaries (API)
  4. FEMA, OpenFEMA NfipMultipleLossProperties v1, version 2026-08-04T164045Z, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/api/open/v1/NfipMultipleLossProperties (API)
  5. FEMA, FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (December 2025), county and census tract tables, version 1.20.0, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_Counties.zip (download, 25 MB), https://www.fema.gov/about/reports-and-data/openfema/nri/v120/NRI_Table_CensusTracts.zip (download, 635 MB)
  6. NOAA NCEI, NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, details files (csvfiles v1.0), version c20260918, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/
  7. NOAA National Weather Service, NWS county-public forecast zones correlation file, version bp03mr20 to bp16ap26 (11 files; newest bp16ap26), pulled 2026-09-30, https://www.weather.gov/gis/ZoneCounty
  8. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2024 Gazetteer, 2020 place by county, CT county-to-cousub crosswalk, version 2024-gazetteer, pulled 2026-09-30, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_counties_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_cousubs_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_place_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_unsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_elsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/maps-data/data/gazetteer/2024_Gazetteer/2024_Gaz_scsd_national.zip, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/codes2020/national_place_by_county2020.txt, https://www2.census.gov/geo/docs/reference/ct_change/ct_cou_to_cousub_crosswalk.xlsx (used to match place names and codes; no table prints its values)

What this packet is and what the plan adds

This packet is the federal data for the plan's risk assessment (the summary on page 1 says how it is organized); the plan and FEMA's review decide whether each item is met.

The plan adds what only the community has: local data on assets, critical facilities, development and each jurisdiction's impacts; local hazard history, including state-declared emergencies; the mitigation strategy; and adoption.

How the federal data are built: National Risk Index values are FEMA's model, not counts of events. Storm Events is more complete from 1996; zone-level records are placed by forecast zone, not by location in the county. Public Assistance for a jurisdiction is matched by applicant name. The Methods page gives every rule and the known edge cases.

OpenFEMA disclaimer

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

Reuse, citation and corrections

Reuse and citation: Hazard Plain text and tables are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/); credit Hazard Plain and the release. The underlying federal data are public domain; OpenFEMA data are also subject to the OpenFEMA terms and conditions.

Cite this: Hazard Plain (2026). Durham County, NC: risk-assessment baseline packet, release 2026-10 (data as of 2026-09-30; County FIPS 37063). Automated baseline. https://hazardplain.org/nc/37063/ Built from FEMA OpenFEMA, the FEMA National Risk Index and NOAA NCEI Storm Events; source versions in the packet's Sources list.

Corrections: to report an error, name the packet, the table and what your records show. Contact: [email protected]